Everyone's feeling jumpy about AI right now—and for good reason.

The hype has been massive. The investment has been astronomical. But where's the actual return?

In this episode, Azeem Azhar, founder of Exponential View and advisor to tech leaders and governments, breaks down why the next 18 months are make-or-break for AI. Companies need to prove there's real ROI, not just prototypes launched and tokens spent.

We cover:

• What hard evidence would actually prove AI is working (hint: it's not usage metrics)
• Who can build a real moat with AI—and why the winners will likely come from unexpected places, as they have in previous tech transformations
• The physical constraints nobody wants to talk about: chips, data centers, power grids, and whether America's infrastructure is up to the task
• Why OpenAI's "ubiquity strategy" might be spreading too thin (and what Anthropic is doing differently)
• The "pragmatic addicts" problem: we're dependent on AI even though we don't trust it
• How Azeem and his team use AI to be more productive, how they automate whatever they can, and why individual contributors are acting more like managers (of AI)

Note: This interview was recorded months before the "SaaSpacolypse" (big market drop) of Feb 2026; the analysis is as relevant as ever. 

Chapters

• (01:51) - Why the next 18 months are the crucible for AI
• (04:09) - What hard evidence would actually prove AI ROI (not token counts!)
• (06:55) - Why it's so hard to measure AI's real impact
• (09:55) - Who can build a moat with AI? Winners will be in "odd places"
• (12:56) - Structural data advantages: why Waymo's edge is hard to replicate
• (14:34) - Coding agents and whether developers will become disillusioned with them
• (18:21) - Physical constraints: chips, data centers, power, and America's grid problem
• (21:25) - How the Gulf countries became an unexpected AI hub
• (28:02) - "Pragmatic addicts": why 75% of Americans distrust AI but use it anyway
• (31:45) - The narrative of AI can be very unappealing: heaven on Earth or dystopia
• (34:36) - How Azeem's team uses AI: augmentation vs. automation
• (40:06) - What should we be talking about besides AI?
• (43:46) - Sounds like science fiction: What Azeem can't believe is real and here today

Links & Resources:

• Exponential View: https://www.exponentialview.co/
• Azeem's Boom or Bubble dashboard: https://boomorbubble.ai/
• Azeem's New York Times piece on America's electric grid challenge: https://www.nytimes.com/2024/12/28/opinion/ai-electricity-power-plants.html
• More on the “MIT Study” claiming 95% of AI projects fail that Azeem and I both found to be really poorly done, but that is nonetheless is quoted by everyone: Here’s Azeem tearing the study apart with data: https://www.exponentialview.co/p/how-95-escaped-into-the-world
• And here's me riffing with Kwaku Aning on it. You know why Azeem liked my take? Because I actually read the thing, unlike ~95% of the writers out there who just quoted that 95% number: https://www.futurearound.com/p/did-anyone-actually-read-that-mit-ai-study-that-made-the-markets-swoon-i-did

Support Future Around & Find Out

• Get the newsletter: https://www.futurearound.com
• Become a paid subscriber and help future proof this thing!: https://www.futurearound.com

Sponsor the show? 

• Are you looking to reach an audience of senior technologists and decision-makers? Email me: [email protected]

Welcome to the first FAFO Friday!

This week Dan and Kwaku dig into:
- The uncanny valley that is AI agents and Moltbook—the "Reddit" that agents built for themselves to complain about humans, create a religion, and behave in ways that freak humans out
- Anthropic takes aim at OpenAI with a Super Bowl ad that's spicy (for cubs and cougars alike)
- We read Claude's "Constitution" and ask: Should AI do what you ask it to do—or what it thinks you _really_ want long-term?
- Why Dan switched from OpenAI to Claude (and what he learned about tone, capability, and custom projects)
- OpenAI scrambles; the market stumbles; Jensen Huang acts like Sam Altman is "just someone I used to know"
- How AEO (AI Engine Optimization) becomes critical in an AI-agent world—and what that means for brand, marketing, and search
- Why social media is already past (dark social won)
- Elon's pivot to humanoid robots, data centers in space, and other cool things we definitely need
- Are we setting higher ethical standards for machines than for tech leaders?

Plus: Friendster, TiVo, Pee-wee's Playhouse, and other asides that we hope you get, but maybe you won't ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

---
Support Future Around & Find Out
- Subscribe to the newsletter and support: https://www.futurearound.com
- Support the media — support the future — you hope to see. Please consider a paid subscription to Future Around & Find Out. You’ll also get access to exclusive events and the ability to ask questions of upcoming guests. Learn more: https://www.futurearound.com/upgrade

Baratunde Thurston wants us to live well with machines — not for us live under them, nor to be their almighty overlords.

Baratunde is a technologist, a comedian, and an Emmy-nominated storyteller who explores interdependence. He gets spicy in this episode. The host of Life With Machines explores how he uses AI — without succumbing to its literal mediocrity — and why he feels he must use AI because otherwise he’s ceding the future to big tech. He also digs into the compromises made in service of building AGI, why strongmen are actually weak, and why CEOs need to stop bending the knee and learn how collective power and strength actually work.

But he doesn't just critique—he offers builders a concrete path forward for how we can build a better future , because: 

This episode is a banger. You will be inspired to take action!

Chapters:

• (02:00) - “I don't want to live under machines… I also don't want to be like master of the machine”
• (06:25) - Creating good goals for AI systems and products
• (09:00) - “Nothing about us without us” – principles of community-based action
• (11:10) - How Baratunde stays creative and avoids mediocrity when using AI
• (14:10) - Building BLAIR, Baratunde’s AI “co-host” and “producer” on Life With Machines
• (16:50) - “You know nothing, John Snow.” Generative AI systems are not knowledge repositories!
• (20:00) - Practice what you preach: on Mustafa Suleyman (Microsoft AI CEO) and his warning against building “Seemingly Conscious AI”
• (24:26) - The AI funding shell game
• (25:26) - Racing to AGI and the compromises (trust & safety, copyright, etc…) along the way
• (28:56) - How Baratunde reconciles his unease with his own heavy use of AI
• (32:10) - “Comedy will not save us; we will save us.” On the role of comedy vs. authority / authoritarians
• (36:26) - Bending the knee: why Baratunde says tech CEOs need to learn how collective power works
• (38:26) - What builders — what we! — can do (today!) to exercise our power about how these systems will be built
• (40:26) - “If we build these systems in a good way, there’ll be more for everybody…”

Where to find Baratunde Thurston:

• Life with Machines: https://www.lifewithmachines.media/

Support Future Around & Find Out

• Subscribe to the newsletter and support: https://www.futurearound.com
• Support the media — support the future — you hope to see. Please consider a paid subscription to Future Around & Find Out. You’ll also get access to exclusive events and the ability to ask questions of upcoming guests. Learn more: https://www.futurearound.com/upgrade 

Sponsor the show?

• Interested in reaching an audience of senior technologists and decision-makers and aligning with future-forward content? Let's talk! Please email show host Dan Blumberg: [email protected]

---
Music by Jonathan Zalben

You know what would be awesome? If we could build the future we want — before we muck it up.

Future Around & Find Out helps builders think clearly about AI and emerging technologies, grapple with the implications, and decide what to build next.

Independent technologist and former NPR journalist Dan Blumberg speaks with founders, makers, and you to celebrate breakthroughs, call BS on the hype, explore how things might go sideways — and how we can steer the future in the right direction.

The Webby Awards have honored the show (formerly known as CRAFTED.) as a top tech podcast three years in a row!

On Tuesdays, we feature interviews with the builders changing how we work, live, and play.

On FAFO Fridays, futurist Kwaku Aning joins Dan for a playful recap of the week in tech, including the amazing, the scary, and the strange.

You’ll also hear about innovations that too often get overshadowed by AI, including in deep tech, biotech, fintech, quantum computing, robotics, blockchain, and more.

Across it all, you’ll hear sharp takes on what comes next and what builders need to know now.

So let’s Future Around & Find Out together!

FutureAround.com

(Music by Jonathan Zalben)

Here's the full text of this short episode:

Hey everyone, Dan here with a quick, exciting update on this show... the name is about to change! 

In a few days -- on January 20th --  you'll see that this podcast will have new cover art, a new name, a new trailer, and more...

I'm not going to reveal that name today, but I do want to share a bit of why I'm changing the name of a show that's been honored 3 years straight by the Webby Awards -- and what is NOT changing.

OK, so there are three main reasons for the name change:
- the first is very practical: "crafted" is really hard to find in search. I've literally stood next to people who are looking to subscribe and they can't find the show. I swear this wasn't the case when we launched 3yrs ago, but today there are several shows that are either called crafted or something close to it. 
- the second reason is more personal: the show is mine now -- that wasn't always the case. You may recall the show launched when I was with a high craft software consultancy doing product and client work. The podcast was a surprise! When I left and got full ownership of the show I didn't want to change too many things all at once. Also, I like the name crafted, but -- and this leads to the *real* reason I'm changing --- it no longer fits the show.
- crafted is a past tense verb. and it perfectly described the original incarnation of this show, where founders, makers, and innovators would look *back* on things they'd built and we'd do a sort of case study that would help other builders learn from their mistakes and understand how that great product or company they built got so great...

So here's the thing... I'm not really doing that sort of case study thing anymore. And I haven't for a while. Creating explicitly educational content is not favorite thing. I'm not exactly a "here is a framework" kind of guy. There are other people who LOVE to create that sort of content and they do a great job with it. 

So I've been following my interests... For a while now, this show has been much less concerned with teaching case studies and much interested in what comes *next.* 
* What are the implications of new tech? 
* How will AI change how we live, work, play, teach our kids...? 
* Should we get ready to live with humanoid robots? 
* How are stablecoins changing the world of money? 
* And what about quantum computers? 

And what do builders need to know about these things so that we can build a future we actually want? 

See that part is not changing... the show is still for builders. And you can take that literally: as in people who make software. Or if you want you can take it a bit more broadly: as in: people who putting in the work to build a better future.

Sorry if that's a bit cheesy, but it's true. Because while I'm optimistic that we will build an amazing future, there is... uh... a lot going on right now in tech and in the world. And I believe that, together, we have power to steer the future in the right direction. 

This show will still feature the world's top technologists. And we're going to get into all of these future-forward things. Of course, we'll talk about things they've done in the past, because if we don't learn from history... well, you know how that expression goes. 

So, get ready to see some new art and a new name -- I'll give you a hint, it'll have the word future in it -- on Tuesday. 

And I would love your help spreading the word. When the new trailer and website drop, please share them with all your builder friends. 

So stay tuned...

Travel is one of the most demo-friendly use cases for AI — and one of the hardest industries to actually disrupt.

Every AI launch seems to promise the same thing: “Tell me where you want to go, and I’ll plan everything.” But behind the slick demos sits a deeply consolidated industry dominated by platforms, hotel chains, and airlines that optimize for upsell and extraction.

Rafat Ali is the founder and CEO of Skift, which bills itself as “the daily homepage for the global travel industry.” We discuss whether AI is likely to have a traveler-friendly effect — or whether the big platforms will just use these new tools of hyper-personalization to extract even more from us. 

We cover: 

• Whether AI creates new intermediaries—or just strengthens existing giants
• Why no breakout consumer AI travel startup has emerged (yet)
• Where AI does work in travel today: ops, logistics, and B2B automation
• Why travel is a graveyard for “great UX, bad business” startups (RIP Hipmunk
• Rafat’s dad hacks for traveling with three kids

---
Featured voices:

• Rafat Ali — Founder and CEO of Skift
• Me (Dan Blumberg) — I’m the host of CRAFTED. and the founder of Modern Product Minds. HMU if you want to build something great! I love building from zero to one.

---
And if you please…

• Share with a friend! Word of mouth is by far the most powerful way for podcasts to grow
• Subscribe to the CRAFTED. newsletter at crafted.fm
• Share your feedback! I’m experimenting with new episode formats and would love your honest feedback on this and other episodes. Email me: [email protected] or DM me on LinkedIn
• Sponsor the show? I’m actively speaking to potential sponsors. Drop me a line and let’s talk.
• Get psyched!… There are some big updates to this show coming soon!

This week I’m turning the mic over to podcast friends Mike Masnick and Ben Whitelaw, hosts of Ctrl-Alt-Speech, a show about what happens when we talk on the internet, the messy world of content moderation, trust & safety, and the laws trying (and often failing) to keep up.

In their first episode of the new year, they build a 2026 bingo card of things that might happen across AI, regulation, and online speech. Not predictions exactly — more a way to follow along and yell “BINGO” as we stumble into another year of deepfakes, age verification fights, and calls to repeal Section 230.

You can find links to Ctrl-Alt-Speech on all podcast apps here: https://www.ctrlaltspeech.com/

And this — for now — name change coming soon! — is CRAFTED. Sign up for the newsletter and stay tuned at https://www.crafted.fm

The new name and the reasons why are coming in about a week. 

Happy New Year! This is the time of year when people make big changes. So, I'm bringing back my conversation with the co-author of Tomorrowmind. It's a fascinating book and especially relevant at this time of the year. 

Dr. Gabriella Rosen Kellerman writes that that career trajectories used to be like steamships (full steam ahead), and then they became more like sailboats (lots of tacking), but now we're swirling in whitewater. So how can we stay afloat? How can we flourish? 

On this episode of CRAFTED., we focus on PRISM, the five key skill groups that Gabriella says can help you be more successful: Prospection, Resilience, Innovation and creativity, Social support by way of rapid rapport, and Mattering and meaning. 

Gabriella was until recently the Chief Product Officer at BetterUp, a platform that helps organizations and people level up through a mixture of human and AI coaching. She originally appeared on the show in a two-part episode. Part one is includes more on the tomorrowmind skills and her career path; in part two, she describes how BetterUp builds products and innovated under her leadership. 

And stay tuned as we employ our own tomorrowminds here at CRAFTED... there are some big changes to the show, including a new name, coming this month!

---
Featured voices:

• Dr. Gabriella Rosen Kellerman, Partner at BCG, former CPO of BetterUp, and co-author, with Martin Seligman, of Tomorrowmind 
• Me (Dan Blumberg) — I’m the host of CRAFTED. and the founder of Modern Product Minds. HMU if you want to build something great! I love building from zero to one.

---
And if you please…

• Share with a friend! Word of mouth is by far the most powerful way for podcasts to grow
• Subscribe to the CRAFTED. newsletter at crafted.fm
• Share your feedback! I’m experimenting with new episode formats and would love your honest feedback on this and other episodes. Email me: [email protected] or DM me on LinkedIn
• Sponsor the show? I’m actively speaking to potential sponsors for 2026 episodes. Drop me a line and let’s talk.
• Get psyched!… There are some big updates to this show coming soon!

A guest episode from Famous & Gravy. On each episode, host Michael Osborne and guests look at the life of a famous dead celebrity and ask themselves if it's a life they would've wanted. The show gets into all sorts of things you will not in that person's official obituary or biography. I'm a fan. Here's how they describe today's episode:

This person died 2011, age of 56. He dropped out of Reed College in 1972 and once said that taking LSD was among the most important things he ever did. In the early years of his career, his obsession with detail drove colleagues crazy, but later he inspired extraordinary loyalty. In the 1990s he bought a small computer graphics spinoff from George Lucas and built it into Pixar. He told the world he would step down as Apple’s CEO if he could no longer meet expectations — and then he did. Today’s dead celebrity is Steve Jobs.

Subscribe to Famous & Gravy in all your favorite podcast apps and at famousandgravy.com

---
And if you please…

• Subscribe to the CRAFTED. newsletter: crafted.fm
• Share with a friend! Word of mouth is by far the most powerful way for podcasts to grow
• Sponsor the show? I’m actively speaking to potential sponsors for 2026 episodes. Drop me a line and let’s talk.
• Get psyched!… There are some big updates to this show coming in January

This week I'm the guest and my friends at Whiskey Web and Whatnot are the hosts. And they're great hosts, because they send their guests a bottle of whiskey before talking web and whatnot...

As we head into the holidays I hope you'll raise a glass with us and enjoy this very laid back episode... 

Chuck and Robbie hosted me a year ago and I love that they got me on tape when they did, because it was just as I was starting to consider making some big changes to my show... Changes that I will announce in late January... so get excited for that! and please subscribe to this here podcsat in your favorite apps, and get the newsletter at crafted.fm

Here's how they described the episode:

And if you please…

• Subscribe to the CRAFTED. newsletter atcrafted.fm
• Share with a friend! Word of mouth is by far the most powerful way for podcasts to grow
• Sponsor the show? I’m actively speaking to potential sponsors for 2026 episodes. Drop me a line and let’s talk.
• Get psyched!… There are some big updates to this show coming soon

For more on Whiskey Web and Whatnot...

• Check ou:t https://whiskey.fm
• Connect with Robbie Wagner: https://x.com/RobbieTheWagner
• Connect with Chuck Carpenter: https://x.com/CharlesWthe3rd 

In this episode:
- (00:00) - Intro
- (03:26) - Whiskey review and rating: Woodinville Straight Bourbon
- (09:23) - Apple Podcasts vs Spotify
- (11:20) - Spotify video vs YouTube
- (13:02) - Podcasting audio vs video
- (15:24) - Advice on starting a podcast
- (19:24) - Equipment requirements for guests on podcasts
- (22:15) - Having a pre-interview interview
- (26:06) - Social media and podcasting challenges
- (27:37) - How to grow your audience
- (33:18) - How to make money as a podcaster
- (37:28) - Being yourself vs having a persona
- (38:42) - Monetizing your podcast
- (42:11) - What's missing from RSS
- (43:38) - Dan's non-tech career ideas
- (45:40) - Podcast recommendations
- (49:12) - Dan's plugs

Links
- Woodinville Straight Bourbon: https://woodinvillewhiskeyco.com/
- Crafted: https://crafted.fm
- WNYC: https://www.wnyc.org/
- NYT: https://www.nytimes.com/
- Apple Podcasts: https://podcasts.apple.com/
- Spotify: https://www.spotify.com/
- Pocket Casts: https://pocketcasts.com/
- IAB: https://www.iab.com/
- National Geographic: https://www.nationalgeographic.com/
- Shure SM7B: https://www.shure.com/en-US/products/microphones/sm7b
- Focusrite: https://focusrite.com/
- Shure MV7: https://www.shure.com/en-US/products/microphones/mv7
- Elgato: https://www.elgato.com/
- AirPods: https://www.apple.com/airpods/
- Audio Technica: https://www.audio-technica.com/en-us/
- Morning Edition: https://www.wnyc.org/shows/me
- Chicago Public Radio: https://www.wbez.org/
- Riverside: https://riverside.fm/
- TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/
- Mr. Beast: https://youtube.com/@mrbeast
- Docker: https://www.docker.com/
- Artium: https://www.thisisartium.com/
- Jay Clouse: https://creatorscience.com/
- Hark: https://harkaudio.com/
- Syntax: https://syntax.fm/
- Hard Fork: https://www.nytimes.com/column/hard-fork
- Big Technology with Alex Kantrowitz: https://www.bigtechnology.com/
- Decoder with Nilay Patel: https://www.theverge.com/decoder
- How I Built This: https://www.npr.org/series/490248027/how-i-built-this
- Acquired: https://www.acquired.fm/
- Smartless: https://smartless.com/
- Wondery: https://wondery.com/
- Sacha Baron Cohen: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sacha_Baron_Cohen
- Tim Burton: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tim_Burton
- Beetlejuice: https://www.warnerbros.com/movies/beetlejuice
- Darknet Diaries: https://darknetdiaries.com/

Looking to fund your startup? If you're new to the process, fundraising can be difficult to navigate. Not only are there a myriad of ways to go about it, but it can be hard to tell whether the tips, tricks, and advice floating around are based on any evidence at all.

[This week, I'm turning the mic over to my friends at The Startup Podcast. featuring Carta's head of insights on what you need to know about today's fundraising environment and how AI is affecting valuations, equity, and how companies grow. Here's how they describe this episode...]

So, what is the truth?

And what are the actual, data-backed insights that can help you choose the best method of fundraising for your own business?

Enter: Peter Walker.

As Head of Insights at Carta, he has access to, and industry knowledge about, the vast sets of funding data that will help you cut through the noise. Today, he joins Chris and Yaniv in discussing the real data behind startup funding trends in 2025 and the key takeaways you can apply to your own startups.

In this episode, you will:

• Discover why Silicon Valley valuations often hurt founders more than they help
• Understand how AI startups now account for nearly half of all venture funding, and what that means for non-AI founders
• Learn how lean AI-driven teams are reshaping early-stage hiring, with Series A companies shrinking from 25 employees to just 15
• See why most founders misunderstand SAFE notes
• Explore why 70% of startup employees never exercise their equity
• Uncover the reasons behind why nearly 40% of startups lose a co-founder within seven years
• Get clarity on founder vesting, equity splits, and why a six-year vesting schedule may protect your company better than four
• Reframe your goals as a founder: why chasing “life-changing money” isn’t the right reason to start a company

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Featured voices:

• Peter Walker - Head of Insights at Carta
• Yaniv Bernstein - Co-host of The Startup Podcast
• Chris Saad - Co-host of The Startup Podcast
• Me (Dan Blumberg) — I’m the host of CRAFTED. and the founder of Modern Product Minds. HMU if you want to build something great. I love building from zero to one.

---
And if you please…

• TAKE THE SURVEY: It'll just take five minutes and I'll give $100 to the charity of choice for one lucky respondent
• Share with a friend! Word of mouth is by far the most powerful way for podcasts to grow
• Subscribe to the CRAFTED. newsletter at crafted.fm
• Share your feedback! I’m experimenting with new episode formats and would love your honest feedback on this and other episodes. Email me: [email protected] or DM me on LinkedIn
• Sponsor the show? I’m actively speaking to potential sponsors for 2026 episodes. Drop me a line and let’s talk.
• Get psyched!… There are some big updates to this show coming soon!