Whilst the 30-year US Treasury bond yield rose for a sixth consecutive session, traders were calmed somewhat by comments from New York Federal Reserve President John Williams yesterday. Markets are now pricing in a 49% chance of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 71% on Monday. This didn't help US indices though: they all declined on the day. Asia saw stocks recover and there was encouraging factory activity data out of China. Today sees the release of the Fed's preferred measure of inflation - the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index. Our Head of Fixed Income Research, Dario Messi, joined the podcast to explain what is driving higher yields, where he believes investors can find the best value now, and why he believes that a quality bias in credit portfolios is still warranted.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:20) - Fixed income update: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
• (10:06) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Rising oil prices and higher bond yields are keeping inflation concerns front and centre, pushing US Treasury yields to their highest level since 2007. The AI investment boom remains in focus, highlighted by NVIDIA's record buyback announcement and Anthropic's S-1 filing, a precursor to an eventual IPO. Policymakers continue to balance inflation and growth concerns, with Australia tightening policy further and China signalling fresh support for its slowing economy. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation, talks about the need of large cities to adapt to climate change, creating a very appealing structural growth outlook for the infrastructure and buildings value chains.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:31) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (06:00) - Adapting to a warmer world: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (10:48) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Global bond yields moved higher once again as oil prices rallied following President Trump’s rejection of Iran’s ceasefire proposal. Meanwhile, Chinese equities fell to their lowest level in a year amid fresh US restrictions on technology exports. In Europe, the financial sector remains firmly in focus as market speculation grows around a potential tie-up between UBS and another major bank. In today’s episode, we are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who shares his latest views on market leadership, the strongest-performing sectors, and the outlook for precious metals.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (01:10) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (07:11) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (10:32) - Closing remarks: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content

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US-China relations are back in the spotlight, with investors watching whether talks between Presidents Trump and Xi can deliver meaningful progress and shift market sentiment. The discussions come as Chinese markets contend with trade uncertainty, tentative policy support and a challenging domestic growth backdrop.

In this episode, Richard Tang, Head of Research Hong Kong at Julius Baer, speaks with Hong Hao, Managing Partner and CIO of Lotus Asset Management, about the Trump-Xi talks, the outlook for Chinese equities and property, and sentiment towards Chinese AI stocks. They also discuss the longer-term AI investment story and the impact of rising oil prices and interest rates on global markets.

• (00:00) - Trump-Xi talks: Can they deliver for markets?
• (01:55) - US, Europe and China: A changing trade landscape
• (06:40) - What could drive a year-end rebound in Chinese equities?
• (11:17) - Property support: Technical rebound or real recovery?
• (16:00) - China AI stocks: Sentiment versus fundamentals
• (22:38) - Oil, rates and the global market outlook

Rising government bond yields remain at the centre of investors' attention as expectations for further rate hikes in the US and Europe continue to build. Combined with a renewed rally in oil prices, higher yields are weighing on risk appetite and limiting the upside for equity markets. In today's episode, Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Advisory in Geneva, joins us to share his views on the US dollar, precious metals, and the key market themes investors should be watching.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:21) - Markets wrap-up: Roman Canziani, Head of Product & Investment Content
• (06:35) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (10:57) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

US Treasury yields surge the most since last year's tariff turmoil and what's next for gold? Bond yields surged globally as stronger-than-expected economic data reinforced higher-for-longer rate expectations. US Treasury yields recorded their biggest jump since last year's tariff-related market turmoil, while Japan's 10-year yield rose above 3% for the first time since 1996. Brent oil moved back above USD 100 per barrel. The safe-haven USD was well bid, while European and US equities moved lower. Asian markets were mixed today, with Japan rising after a three-day holiday. Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research, discusses precious metals - from Fed policy to China's gold buying, he talks about what is likely to drive the gold and silver markets, and what is just noise.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content
• (00:28) - Markets wrap-up: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (07:04) - Gold and silver: Carsten Menke, Head of Next Generation Research
• (11:47) - Closing remarks: Helen Freer, Product & Investment Content

The Nasdaq climbed to a fresh record as investors continued to back AI-related stocks, while oil prices fell on hopes of easing tensions between the US and Iran. In today's episode, Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income Research, and Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy Research, share how last week's Fed rate hike has impacted their expectations for bond and equity markets, and discuss the key risks and opportunities investors are watching now.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:34) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:07) - Bond markets after the FOMC: Dario Messi, Head of Fixed Income
• (09:18) - Equity markets after the FOMC: Mathieu Racheter, Head of Equity Strategy
• (14:24) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content

Oil prices fell yesterday after President Trump said he would be open to meeting Iran’s leader this week. The accompanying enthusiasm carried over into both European and US bond and equity markets. And these were further boosted by positive headlines around Meta’s new AI Chatbot, Muse, boosting Meta’s share price by 11% in the session and powering a surge in the technology heavy hitters that helped the Nasdaq Composite close at a new record high. The upcoming summit between the US and China is now in focus. Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research, joins today’s podcast and talks, amongst other things, about the impact of Chinese electric vehicles outside their home market. Tune in to hear more of his thoughts on the importance of electrification and the outlook for Future Mobility.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content
• (00:55) - Markets wrap-up: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (06:58) - Future mobility: Norbert Rücker, Head of Economics and Next Generation Research
• (13:43) - Closing remarks: Mike Rauber, Product & Investment Content

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Technology and semiconductor stocks started the week on a positive note, while oil prices fell as traders anticipated a recovery in Saudi shipments, despite continued geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Meanwhile, political uncertainty in Germany, pressure on the Japanese yen, and optimism ahead of the planned meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, remain in focus. In today’s show, we discuss the latest developments across global markets and are joined by Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis, who examines the signals emerging from the US market, the state of investor sentiment and the technical outlook for information technology stocks

• (00:00) - Introduction: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content
• (00:48) - Markets wrap-up: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (07:07) - Technical Analysis update: Mensur Pocinci, Head of Technical Analysis
• (09:54) - Closing remarks: Bernadette Anderko, Product & Investment Content

Equity markets in 2026 have delivered a volatile ride, with a strong rebound pushing most major indices into positive territory. But as investor focus narrows on AI and the so-called Magnificent Seven, where should attention shift for the remainder of the year—and what risks are hiding in plain sight?

In this episode, Ayako Lehmann, Head of Webcasts & Video, is joined by Philipp Lienhardt, Head of Equity Research at Julius Baer, for a deep dive into the drivers of equity market performance in 2026. They discuss regional and sector standouts, the breadth of earnings growth beyond mega cap technology stocks, and the implications of increasing market concentration. The conversation covers sector positioning—why financials, health care, and communications remain overweight—and explores the outlook for subsectors including retail banks, payment networks, pharma, biotech, MedTech, and telecom operators. Philipp also shares practical guidance on avoiding common equity investing mistakes as year-end approaches.

• (00:00) - Introduction
• (01:02) - Equity market performance in 2026
• (02:47) - Sector winners and laggards year to date
• (04:10) - Key surprises from the latest earnings season
• (05:45) - The challenge of beating market expectations
• (06:05) - Concentration risk and the AI-driven rally
• (08:28) - Equity research process and sector ranking
• (10:44) - Overweight sectors: financials, health care, communications
• (12:31) - Financials: retail banks, payment networks, rating agencies
• (12:39) - Health care: pharma, biotech, MedTech
• (17:29) - Communications: internet platforms, telecom operators, AI infrastructure
• (20:49) - Year-end investing mistakes to avoid
• (23:17) - Closing remarks
• (23:43) - Legal information

Markets rebounded after three tough sessions, fuelled by a reassuring Federal Reserve, easing yields, and falling oil prices. Julius Baer Chief Economist David Kohl breaks down what the latest Fed decision means for the US economy and shares his expectations for the Bank of Japan following its overnight rate hike. Meanwhile, Tim Gagie, Head of FX Advisory in Geneva, explores the implications for the US dollar and explains why gold continues to shine.

• (00:00) - Introduction: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content
• (00:52) - Markets wrap-up: Jan Bopp, Product & Investment Content
• (06:52) - Fed and BOJ: David Kohl, Chief Economist
• (13:43) - FX & metals update: Tim Gagie, Head of FX & Precious Metals Sales Geneva
• (17:55) - Closing remarks: Lucija Caculovic, Product & Investment Content