- 18 minutes 48 secondsHousing Sector: The Social Value Blueprint
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 27 January 2024)
In this podcast, we unpack what sustainability means for the housing sector. We see social value as a key overarching principle, defined in terms of the green and social goals it combines. In our view, an integrated approach generates co-benefits for people but also for governments, banks and insurers. We look at the macro drivers of social value, examining the different elements that should support the growth and implementation of such combined goals at a larger scale going forward.
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27 January 2025, 10:04 am - 26 minutes 16 secondsPositioning in the rise of the global hydrogen economy
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Jinyi Yue, Sustainability Research Analyst
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 26 September 2024)
Global stock take at COP28 underlined for the first time that low-carbon H2 production should be accelerated alongside other clean technology types.
With progress made on national strategies and regulatory frameworks, clean H2 is set to rise to new heights despite some near-term technical and supply chain challenges.
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26 September 2024, 1:30 pm - 24 minutes 32 secondsGlobal EV readiness: Who’ll take charge
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Jinyi Yue, Sustainability Research Analyst
Jason Ying, Commodities Desk Strategist
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 28 June 2024)
This episode delves into the evolving landscape of EVs and sustainability. From current EV sales trends to charging infrastructure and battery supply chain, join us as we discuss key findings of our EV readiness scores, and examine regulatory dynamics, policy insights, market developments, and innovations influencing the future of global mobility.
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28 June 2024, 7:00 am - 19 minutes 10 secondsNatural capital: Growing stronger roots in 2024
With:
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research | BNP Paribas London Branch
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst | BNP Paribas London Branch
Natural capital is quickly becoming an essential consideration for the creation of government policy, reporting practices, and investment strategy. With the Global Biodiversity Framework defining the ambition in 2022, we expect efforts this year to centre on how to track, enforce and finance these common goals. 3 main drivers to get there: policy, disclosures and innovation.
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 22 May 2024)
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22 May 2024, 11:45 am - 25 minutes 37 secondsClimate adaptation readiness: A world of greater macro uncertainty
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Jeffrey Schultz, Chief CEEMEA Economist
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst
Niccolo Carrara, Emerging Markets Economist
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 04 January 2024)
• There are significant pockets of vulnerability in countries’ ability to respond to physical risks related to climate change, according to our new BNP Paribas climate adaptation readiness scores.
• Some of the weakest scores are in south Asia, as well as in parts of sub-Saharan Africa and Latin America.
• Agriculture’s exposure to water stress is a potential source of global inflation volatility.
• In the short term, a potentially strong El Niño episode might keep food prices elevated.
• In the medium term, without sufficient adaptation, the agricultural sector might suffer unexpected losses and cost pressures due to climate change.
• EM governments face the prospect of responding to more frequent food supply shocks and investing in climate adaptation against the backdrop of severely depleted fiscal capacity.
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4 January 2024, 8:29 am - 9 minutes 23 secondsAI: What could it mean for Emerging markets?
With: Niccolo Carrara, Economist, Emerging Markets | BNP Paribas London Branch
This podcast was recorded 9 November 2023
- Artificial intelligence provides some threats to emerging markets, we think.
- To avoid sharp distortion across countries, regulation requires harmonisation at the global level, which could be hard to find amid US-China geopolitical tensions.
- An unequitable distribution of benefits from AI, potentially aggravating income inequality, is likely to be a major hurdle.
- Notwithstanding these threats, AI also offers scope for meaningful productivity gains in some sectors, particularly those that are able to adapt quickly.
- We argue it is time for some EM to broaden their focus beyond manufacturing-based export-led growth
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10 November 2023, 8:32 am - 11 minutesUS: Q4 frost warning - consumer cold front moving in
Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US
Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US
Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US
BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 October 2023)
- The US consumer has powered ahead this year, but we see several factors that could slow spending in the near term.
- Most lower and middle-income households have depleted their excess savings, while interest payments as a share of income look set to approach levels last seen ahead of the global financial crisis.
- We expect consumer spending growth to slow sharply this quarter, to just 0.5% q/q saar from a 3.6% Q3 pace.
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11 October 2023, 6:43 am - 13 minutes 44 secondsPhysical climate risk: Enhancing shock absorbers
Trevor Allen, Head of Sustainability Research
Sumati Semavoine-Jain, Sustainability Research Analyst
BNP Paribas London Branch | Global Markets (Recorded 18 August 2023)
- Physical climate risk is rising in intensity and frequency globally.
- (Re)insurance plays the essential role of shock absorber, protecting from a natural disaster’s second-round impacts on economic activity and the wider financial system.
- However, given increasing and more chronic insured losses, the protection gap is rising, leaving parts of the economy and of the world highly vulnerable.
- There is room for (re)insurers, high-risk industries, public sector and regulators to mitigate risk and seize opportunities, we argue.
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18 August 2023, 9:05 am - 10 minutes 32 secondsH2 consumer outlook: Savings-slasher, Christmas-crasher
Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US
Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US
Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US
Andrew Husby, Senior Economist, US
BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 03 August 2023)
- We expect household excess savings – which has bolstered consumer spending over the last eighteen months – be depleted by the end of this year.
- Watch for more price elastic consumer spending as households become increasingly dependent on paycheck income.
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4 August 2023, 7:56 am - 8 minutes 57 secondsDisinflation and easing cycle in Mexico
Pamela Díaz Loubet, Economist, Mexico
Debora Luncaorte, Economist, Mexico
BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 10 July 2023)
- We discuss Mexico’s disinflation process, its risks and implications for the monetary policy path in the country.
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12 July 2023, 11:58 am - 10 minutes 39 secondsECO data are hot, lending conditions are not … what it means for the Fed
Carl Riccadonna, Chief Economist, US
Yelena Shulyatyeva, Senior Economist, US
Andrew Schneider, Senior Economist, US
BNP Paribas | Global Markets (Recorded 27 June 2023)
- Analysts looking for an easing of lending conditions in the 2nd quarter may be in for a surprise based on the latest banking conditions survey from the 11th Fed district.
- Ongoing financial sector stress poses a brisk head wind to economic activity and may very well factor into monetary policymakers’ assessment of the appropriate fed funds terminal rate.
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