Nicholas Eberstadt, the Henry Wendt Chair in Political Economy at the American Enterprise Institute, joins School of War to discuss global population decline. What does a shrinking and aging population mean for the United States? What does it mean for China, whose demographic crisis may be even more severe? How could population decline reshape economic growth, military power, and geopolitical competition? And what happens to the international order when the world stops growing?

03:02 Population decline in America

006:15 Deaths exceeding births in the US

07:31 Global birth crash

14:49 Grounds for optimism

17:12 Small family trend

18:17 GDP relationship with population size

19:23  Individual prosperity vs. National strength

21:24 Rise in human life expectancy

24:36  Ben Carson’s prediction

27:11 Ukraine’s military revolution 

30:47  American bad habits

33:48 AI and the labor market

37:25 Chinese depopulation crisis

48:50  What would a world war look like today?

51:48 US Alliance relationships

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Rich Goldberg, senior adviser at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, return to School of War to discuss the complicated news out of the Strait of Hormuz. What is President Donald Trump’s new plan, “Project Freedom”? Does it put the ceasefire at risk? What’s really happening in this critical waterway?

Times:

02:31 - President’s statement

04:00 - Understanding Project Freedom

07:15 - Attacks against tankers

09:53 - Central Command statement

12:15 - Ceasefire breakdown

16:25 - Coordination cell or escort

18:00 - Trump buying time

20:40 - US Navy escort option

23:06 - Missile defense

24:45 - Economic impacts

27:01 - Iran under pressure

31:50 - Live news US vessel transit

34:15 - Human factor of outbound transit

37:30 - American gas production

39:28 - Predictions in America’s favor

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Lance R. Blyth, command historian of the North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM), joins School of War to discuss the evolution of North America’s air defense. How has NORAD adapted to shifting threats over the decades? Are today’s threats manageable? Are we in a new Cold War? And what can the command, with operations deep inside a Colorado mountain, teach us about defending the continent in an era of renewed great-power competition?

Times:

02:04 History of NORAD

07:02 Threats of the 1950s

13:50 Sensors, effectors, and connectors

15:15 Semi-Automatic Ground Environment (SAGE)

19:45 SABRE travel system

21:14 Aerospace missile warning systems

22:07 Cheyenne Mountain Complex

24:13 NORAD in films

27:56 False missile launches

31:31 Adapting to new threats

34:23 New joint surveillance system

35:19 Importance of Canada

36:21 September 11

40:21 Operation Noble Eagle

43:00 Today’s threats

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Douglas Murray, journalist and author of On Democracies and Death Cults, joins School of War to discuss the assassination attempt that we both witnessed in person at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner on Saturday. Was there a lapse in appropriate security? Is political violence being normalized? Can it be contained?

Times:

02:44 - White House Correspondents Dinner
04:38 - Shots fired
06:51 - Security at the dinner
09:58 - Bobby Kennedy and Erika Kirk
16:25 - Secret Service valor
17:25 - Israeli security style
19:42 - Trump’s ballroom
21:35 - The shooter’s manifesto
27:26 - Past American political violence
29:13 - Assassinations can change history
31:09 - Hitler comparison
34:47 - Civic hygiene
36:49 - Justifying violence on NYT podcast
40:22 - Echoes of the Russian Revolution
47:05 - Failure of the education system
54:23 - The melding of the president and media

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Huw Davies, an associate dean and professor of British military history at King’s College London and author of several books, including The Wandering Army, joins School of War to discuss what the 18th-century British Army can teach us about modern warfare. How does battlefield failure drive military innovation? How did institutions of the past respond to change? And in an era of drones, autonomy, and AI, have we learned from the past, or are we destined to repeat it?

Times:

02:40 18th century military enlightenment

06:30 War of the Austrian Succession

12:43 The British officer class

18:39 Tension between ancients and moderns

20:20 Discovering Sir Henry Clinton’s notebook

20:48 False caricature of the British Army

27:02 Challenges of North American warfare

29:32 Battle of the Monongahela

35:09 Importance of light infantry

38:17 Rifle evolution

39:00 Why armies resist change

43:40 Lessons for today

46:42 Human behavior in war

47:10 Learning curve of war technologies

49:11 Is Ukrainian drone warfare a turning point?

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Major General Mick Ryan, Australian Army (retired), Senior Fellow for Military Studies at the Lowy Institute, adjunct fellow with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, and author of the Futura Doctrina Substack joins the show to dissect the current state of the war in Iran. Is this conflict entering a postmortem phase, or are we still in the middle of it? How has America performed so far? How does this war connect to the Pacific theater? Are we adapting for a broader global conflict, and are our adversaries adapting as well?

Times:

002:20 Iran war impact on Australia

05:06 American performance in this war

06:22 Israeli partnership over NATO

08:21 Strait of Hormuz closure

13:07 Is the US prepared for a long-term war?

15:50 Importance of AI

18:17 Israeli performance

18:55 Iran frustrating US objectives

19:26 Lessons for Taiwan

20:31 Does political decapitation work?

22:41 How is the Axis learning from this conflict

25:44 China’s interest in the Middle East

29:04 Grim predictions of the road ahead

30:40 Iranian hardliners

31:16 Importance of getting the strait open

34:29 Pilot rescue mission

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Aviv Shapira, the co-founder and CEO of XTEND, joins the show to discuss his journey from competitive drone racing to building groundbreaking defense technology. How are drone swarms changing warfare? What are the ethical implications of AI weaponry? What happens if this technology falls into the wrong hands? And what comes next?

01:58 Aviv’s background04:46 Replay technologies08:28 VR Messi08:58 Xtend description09:55 Drone racing12:56 Headset importance14:13 Ender’s Game17:02 AI drones21:34 Tunnel warfare27:11 Diversity of drone needs30:41 Drone swarms34:16 Human machine teaming37:10 Rule of three41:52 Ethical questions44:11 Future of munitions45:26 Xtend business model49:23 Future of this technology52:22 Tech in enemy hands

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins the show once again to discuss the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz imposed by United States Central Command. How might this blockade unfold? Is it a tactic to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, or a step that risks igniting a new wave of conflict? We do not know how this game will end, but one thing is certain: The entire world is watching this critical waterway. 

03:13 How is the blockade functioning

08:52 Trump’s messaging

10:54 Blockade is negotiating tactic

11:40 Carrier strike groups

12:12 The U.S. Navy’s run through the strait

12:39 Iranian mines

15:09 The Islamabad process

17:50 American convoying

20:01 Iranian shadow fleet

21:25 Potential blockade tactics

23:20 Boarding vessels

26:54 Merchant marine involvement

28:34 The China factor 

33:08  Economic game of chicken

38:26 A return to violence

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General Michael Claesson is Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. How did Russia’s annexation of Crimea change Sweden’s global strategy? Is Russia weaker than it appears? How strong is the American alliance with Europe? With the tectonic plates of war shifting beneath our feet, the stakes are high and the future of NATO hangs in the balance.

Times:

02:46 Swedish view of the world

04:19 Crimea annexation

08:50 Geopolitical logic of joining NATO

10:10 Military background

13:48 The war in Ukraine

17:53 Lessons from the American Civil War

19:40 Drone combat

25:09 Command versus autonomy

27:09 European defense against Russia

33:14 Contested Kaliningrad

36:00 Russia’s vulnerabilities

37:19 Russia’s greyzone warfare

41:11 Europe’s role in global security

44:26 American and European alliance

45:00 The case for NATO

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Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, joins Aaron to discuss the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. What are the fears surrounding the  talks? Where are the two sides close on the proposed ceasefire, and where are they miles apart? What should we look for to indicate how the talks are going? Looming over everything is the question of whether the negotiating table can, at times, be more dangerous than the battlefield.

Times:

02:03 Nature of the ceasefire

04:22 Do we have the upper hand?

08:04 Trump vs. Iranian trap

09:31 Iran’s fragile position

11:49 Broader American strategy

14:59 Negotiation demands

18:57 Lebanon factor

22:48 Who is Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf?

27:45 J.D. Vance’s analogy

30:44 Strait of Hormuz

33:03 Recession fears

36:29 Hormuz circumvention

38:05 Battle for Hormuz

39:00 Global chokepoint lessons

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the  What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins us to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade?

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Times

02:45 A regular day

07:51 Shipping lanes

11:48 In the Persian Gulf

19:13 What is actually happening?

27:00 Opening the Strait 

32:30 Strategic costs 

38:05 Keeping things moving

44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas

48:32 Ghost fleets

53:13 Other chokepoints

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