Aviv Shapira, the co-founder and CEO of XTEND, joins the show to discuss his journey from competitive drone racing to building groundbreaking defense technology. How are drone swarms changing warfare? What are the ethical implications of AI weaponry? What happens if this technology falls into the wrong hands? And what comes next?

01:58 Aviv’s background04:46 Replay technologies08:28 VR Messi08:58 Xtend description09:55 Drone racing12:56 Headset importance14:13 Ender’s Game17:02 AI drones21:34 Tunnel warfare27:11 Diversity of drone needs30:41 Drone swarms34:16 Human machine teaming37:10 Rule of three41:52 Ethical questions44:11 Future of munitions45:26 Xtend business model49:23 Future of this technology52:22 Tech in enemy hands

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins the show once again to discuss the naval blockade on the Strait of Hormuz imposed by United States Central Command. How might this blockade unfold? Is it a tactic to bring Iran back to the negotiating table, or a step that risks igniting a new wave of conflict? We do not know how this game will end, but one thing is certain: The entire world is watching this critical waterway. 

03:13 How is the blockade functioning

08:52 Trump’s messaging

10:54 Blockade is negotiating tactic

11:40 Carrier strike groups

12:12 The U.S. Navy’s run through the strait

12:39 Iranian mines

15:09 The Islamabad process

17:50 American convoying

20:01 Iranian shadow fleet

21:25 Potential blockade tactics

23:20 Boarding vessels

26:54 Merchant marine involvement

28:34 The China factor 

33:08  Economic game of chicken

38:26 A return to violence

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General Michael Claesson is Sweden’s Chief of Defence Staff and Supreme Commander of the Swedish Armed Forces. How did Russia’s annexation of Crimea change Sweden’s global strategy? Is Russia weaker than it appears? How strong is the American alliance with Europe? With the tectonic plates of war shifting beneath our feet, the stakes are high and the future of NATO hangs in the balance.

Times:

02:46 Swedish view of the world

04:19 Crimea annexation

08:50 Geopolitical logic of joining NATO

10:10 Military background

13:48 The war in Ukraine

17:53 Lessons from the American Civil War

19:40 Drone combat

25:09 Command versus autonomy

27:09 European defense against Russia

33:14 Contested Kaliningrad

36:00 Russia’s vulnerabilities

37:19 Russia’s greyzone warfare

41:11 Europe’s role in global security

44:26 American and European alliance

45:00 The case for NATO

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Mark Dubowitz, chief executive of FDD, joins Aaron to discuss the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran. What are the fears surrounding the  talks? Where are the two sides close on the proposed ceasefire, and where are they miles apart? What should we look for to indicate how the talks are going? Looming over everything is the question of whether the negotiating table can, at times, be more dangerous than the battlefield.

Times:

02:03 Nature of the ceasefire

04:22 Do we have the upper hand?

08:04 Trump vs. Iranian trap

09:31 Iran’s fragile position

11:49 Broader American strategy

14:59 Negotiation demands

18:57 Lebanon factor

22:48 Who is Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf?

27:45 J.D. Vance’s analogy

30:44 Strait of Hormuz

33:03 Recession fears

36:29 Hormuz circumvention

38:05 Battle for Hormuz

39:00 Global chokepoint lessons

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Sal Mercogliano, professor of history at Campbell University and host of the  What’s Going on with Shipping YouTube channel, joins us to discuss the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz, highlighting the complexities of navigating the Strait under normal and elevated circumstances. The conversation delves into the geopolitical tensions involving Iran, the impact on global shipping, and the broader implications for international trade and security. What are the challenges posed by the current conflict, the role of insurance in maritime operations, and the potential long-term effects on global trade?

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Times

02:45 A regular day

07:51 Shipping lanes

11:48 In the Persian Gulf

19:13 What is actually happening?

27:00 Opening the Strait 

32:30 Strategic costs 

38:05 Keeping things moving

44:58 Breakdown of the Freedom of the Seas

48:32 Ghost fleets

53:13 Other chokepoints

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, join the show to breakdown the dramatic events of the weekend and take a look at the road ahead in the Iran War. We discuss the American F-15E shot down in Iran, and the subsequent rescue of its crew by special operations forces near Isfahan. The conversation delves into the details of the rescue operation, President Trump's demands regarding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and the potential actions the United States might take if Iran does not comply. 

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Times

03:00 Rescue

12:47 Potential nuclear raid sites

15:28 President’s deal terms

26:50 Targets and regime change

35:32 Ground options

38:28 Information gaps and what comes next

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The Strait of Hormuz is closed. Iran’s nuclear program survives. And while the regime has been weakened, it remains intact. So what has President Trump accomplished—and what comes next in the war? Today on School of War, we’re doing something a little different. Instead of sitting in the interviewer’s chair, as I usually do – I’m the one being interviewed. I joined Rafaela Siewert of The Free Press to talk through my current thinking on the war in Iran.

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Times

02:03 Trump’s speech  

05:22 Escalation      

10:10 Goals 

12:25 Risk and scale

15:15 Kinds of surprise

17:37 Misreading the Iranians 

22:10 15 Points

25:49 Opening the Strait of Hormuz 

29:24 Branding 

32:44 Oil 

37:15 Kharg Island

41:35 Regime alteration  

44:20 Time and resources

48:49 Balance

50:11 Trump, MAGA, and the Right

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Eyck Freymann, Hoover Fellow at Stanford University and author of Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China, joins the show to explain the complexities of deterrence against China, the strategic challenges in the Indo-Pacific, and the implications of the wars in Ukraine and Iran for Taiwan. We break down China’s plausible gray-zone tactics like quarantine and coercive mobilization, and how these tools, if unchecked, could lead to a total economic or military break. Where are the vulnerabilities in the U.S. defense industrial base, in naval and trade logistics, and in missile magazine depth?

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Times

01:45 No path out  

04:13 Maintaining balance     

10:18 Kasserine lessons

16:51 China’s possible moves in the gray-zone

22:53 More stockpiling 

27:33 Invasion

34:21 Decapitation and bombardment 

39:20 An economic and political problem 

46:42 The Summit

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John Spencer, Chair of Urban Warfare Studies at the Modern War Institute at West Point and host of the Urban Warfare Project podcast, joins the show to break down how the U.S. and Israel are executing a 'neurological' campaign—using precision, targeted strikes on the Iranian Regime and its center of gravity. A strategy that’s as old as Clausewitz but more relevant than ever. How are the U.S. and Israel balancing the psychological impact of their precision strikes in tandem with the more traditional threat of brute force? What might this approach reveal about today’s conflicts, and how might it influence the next global showdown? 

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Times

03:25 Targeting as strategy  

10:40 Neurological strike     

20:16 An evolution in military affairs

26:30 Adaptation 

30:48 Center of gravity

39:37 The missile program

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Rich Goldberg, senior advisor at FDD, and Garrett Exner, adjunct fellow at Hudson Institute, break down what’s really happening behind the headlines — from covert strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites to the fragile possibility of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. How are the U.S., Israel, and Iran navigating the negotiations, and are there any operational knock-on effects? What are the realities and complexities of potential ground invasions, targeted raids, and covert operations that could shape the next phase of conflict? What are the risks of seizing Kharg Island or launching strikes on Iran’s underground nuclear facilities?  How does the Iranian regime’s use of civilian infrastructure complicate precise strikes, and how do intelligence gaps and political signals influence U.S. decisions? What is the strategic significance of Kharg Island, what are the challenges of amphibious operations along Iran’s long coastline, and what are the odds of a ground campaign in the coming weeks? 

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Times

02:42 Negotiations 

09:17 U.S. options     

15:35 Ground forces

18:53 M.E.U

25:35 Kharg Island

37:53 Silence on the nuclear program

45:13 JSOC

53:02 Acting with speed

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Sir Niall Ferguson, Milbank Family Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution and columnist at The Free Press, reveals how geography and choke points have always been pivotal in global conflicts and just like the Dardanelles during WWI, today’s hotspots like the Straits of Hormuz and Taiwan remind us that some strategic challenges never change. What exactly are chokepoints and why do they matter? How do the lessons of Gallipoli and Ukraine apply to the war with Iran? How is the current situation different from the Tanker War and WWI? Can naval and air power alone open the Strait of Hormuz and keep it open? Is there a timeline for success? And what does this all mean for U.S. magazine depth, the economy, and China?

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Times

02:49 Gallipoli

11:08 Unintended consequences     

18:10 Ukraine

26:22 A failure of perception

31:36 The right call by Trump? 

37:34 Regime alteration

47:05 Timeframes

53:33 China

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