Amy Walter returns to the pod for a pundit therapy session. She and Sarah discuss:

• A recent focus group of Georgia swing voters, and what they think of Sen. Jon Ossoff and his opponent.

• The massive polling misses in the Wisconsin and Michigan primaries, and listen to a focus group of Wisconsin voters that tell us (in retrospect) how David Crowley was able to pull of a last minute surge.

• In light of AOC's 'Woke 1 was crazy' comments, they discuss swing voters' biggest complaints about each of our political parties, and whether the parties' brand problems are driven by politicians, or by other people in voters' lives.

Show links:

Subscribe to the Cook Political Report! (https://www.cookpolitical.com/subscribe)

CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator) (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/cpr-polltracker/trump-trendlines)

CPR’s “Find a Race” sorter (https://www.cookpolitical.com/races)

CPR’s Battleground District Project (https://www.cookpolitical.com/survey-research/battleground-district-project)

For a limited time, go to https://TempoMeals.com/THEFOCUSGROUP for 60% off your first box.

The battle lines of the next Republican primary are being drawn in Florida's Republican primary for governor. There's a 'MAGA Establishment' frontrunner running with Donald Trump's endorsement (but who a lot of Republicans aren't that excited about), there's a flamboyantly racist groyper with a wild personal life, and a more Ron DeSantis-aligned candidate struggling to catch on. False Flag author Will Sommer joins Sarah to talk about:

• The Florida governor's race
• The future of the 'America First' faction that Tucker Carlson is leading
• The growing dissatisfaction among rank-and-file Trump voters

Bulwark LIVE: The GOOD FIGHT TOUR with Tim, Sarah, Sam and JVL is coming to the Southeast in October. Tickets go on sale August 21. Bulwark+ members get early access via our presale starting August 18. Watch your inbox for details. Head to for details and to get your tickets.

There are more tickets to see Sarah and JVL on September 8 in NYC! We are about to sell out the orchestra section—but we want to sell out the balcony, too. It’s a point of pride. Come hang with us. Tickets are here.

After Sen. Lindsey Graham’s passing in July, South Carolina is holding a special Republican primary to replace him as the nominee for U.S. Senate. His sister, Sen. Darline Graham, has President Trump’s endorsement. But the polls (and our focus group) suggests that that may not be enough to fend off a cadre of other challengers. Associated Press national politics reporter Meg Kinnard joins Sarah to discuss Lindsey Graham’s legacy among South Carolina Republicans, and the state’s unexpected (and fast) special election.

At the end of one of the most expensive Democratic primaries for Senate in American history, Abdul El-Sayed appears to be pulling away. We've been talking to Democratic primary voters in Michigan about El-Sayed and Rep. Haley Stevens, and what they like (and don't like) about each candidate. Jonathan Cohn, author of the newsletter The Breakdown and The Bulwark's resident Michigander, joins the show to discuss a primary that Sarah thinks has gone on for way too long.

episode links:
How Old-School Race Animus Could Shake Up the Michigan Senate Race
Why Gretchen Whitmer’s Senate Endorsement Matters
Why Mallory McMorrow’s Campaign Didn’t Survive

In Pennsylvania, Gov. Josh Shapiro is on track for a pretty big win in November. And he can't do that without winning over a lot of former Trump voters, including the ones in our focus group. Cook Political Report editor in chief Amy Walter returns to the show to discuss how our Pennsylvania focus group felt about Shapiro, AND Sen. John Fetterman, and about the Trump administration. They also break down whether Democrats should be concerned about the generic ballot polling we're seeing right now.

The Korean skincare brand everyone is talking about. Our listeners get 20% off their entire order by using code THEFOCUSGROUP at https://jiyuskin.com/THEFOCUSGROUP #JIYU #ad

show links

• Subscribe to the Cook Political Report!
• CPR’s PollTracker (Trump Approval Rating Aggregator)
• CPR’s “Find a Race” sorter
• CPR’s Battleground District Project

American politics and politicians are decidedly lower-character than they used to be. So, how did we get here? And why have voters seemingly lowered their expectations?

The New York Times’ David French joins the show to discuss Americans’ relationship with low-character politicians like Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, and Donald Trump, and how our major political parties have handled candidates like Ken Paxton and Graham Platner in 2026.

Show notes:
David French: The Platner Trap

Many Democratic primaries in 2026 have been hashing out America’s relationship with Israel, because Democratic voters' opinions of Israel have taken a nosedive the last three years. Pod Save America and Pod Save the World co-host Tommy Vietor joins Sarah to discuss the role Israel-related politics has played in the 2026 midterms, and the role it may play in the next presidential primaries.

There are more tickets to see Sarah and JVL on September 8 in NYC! We are about to sell out the orchestra section—but we want to sell out the balcony, too. It’s a point of pride. Come hang with us. Tickets are here.

If you're wondering how (and whether) America is worth celebrating on this particular July 4th, this show will be a bit of a pep talk for you. Heather Cox Richardson joins Sarah to discuss voters' complicated relationship with patriotism this year, and the lessons of history for rebuilding from the Trump years.

Through July 6: Join The Bulwark for $86 a year—14 percent off.

Follow Heather Cox Richardson's 250 to 250 project, which marks the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence by telling the stories of the people, places, and events that have moved the United States toward a more perfect Union.

Colorado isn't much of a swing state anymore, but we're covering its primaries anyway. Both of its senators and one longtime member of Congress are facing bigger headwinds than you might expect. Our focus groups of Colorado Democrats will tell you why. Kyle Clark, host of Next with Kyle Clark, joins Sarah to discuss Colorado's upcoming primaries. Plus: Kyle's crazy run-in with the Republican frontrunner for governor, whether Rep. Lauren Boebert has gotten less crazy, and how Democrats feel about Gov. Jared Polis's pardon of Tina Peters.

Show notes:
Kyle's interview with Rep. Lauren Boebert

Barrels of ink have been spilled about James Talarico, Ken Paxton, Graham Platner, and Susan Collins. For the first time, we're listening to how swing voters in Texas and Maine are assessing these two races. We hear from 2024 Trump voters in Texas who disapprove of the president, and Mainers who voted for Joe Biden for President in 2020 and for Susan Collins down-ballot. CNN political reporter Patrick Svitek joins to break these groups down, and to preview some upcoming congressional primaries.

Gen Z swung hard for Trump in 2024. Now his approval with them is under 30%. What happened, and what does this generation’s mix of political views (especially on the war in the Middle East) mean for 2026? Bulwark contributor Rachel Janfaza is back on the pod to discuss. Plus: Sarah has some opinions about Gen Z’s new social habits, and we get into how AI is quietly destroying the entry-level job market — including, yes, applications to scoop ice cream.

show links:
Rachel Janfaza: Are lines the new third space?
Rachel Janfaza: I Applied to 70 Jobs: Meet the Class of 2026