We saw an ICE officer kill an American citizen for the second time in less than three weeks. This time, it was harder for some of the voters we talked to to make an excuse for it. Bulwark immigration correspondent Adrian Carrasquillo returns to the show to discuss his reporting and listen to voters' raw reactions to what they're seeing in the news.

Show notes:
The abhorrent power of the photograph of a 5-year-old held by ICE

By Adrian Carrasquillo:
Why a Scared 5-Year-Old Boy Shook Our National Conscience
Portraits of the Minneapolis Resistance

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Some strange, under-the-radar things are happening on the right. Marco Rubio is experiencing a strange rehabilitation with the Republican base, and some young men are excited about taxing OnlyFans. Meanwhile, JD Vance is still on the struggle bus with swing voters, especially women. Will Sommer, The Bulwark’s right-wing fever swamp correspondent, joins Sarah to break down the growing rift between the MAGA establishment and the America First wing—and what it means for 2028.

By Will Sommer:
MAGA Influencers Cheered Trump’s Venezuela War. Their Audience Said ‘WTF?!’
Meet the First Groyper Politician 

There's a lot of bad news right now—so much that none of it is breaking through that much to the voters we talked to. From the ICE killing of Renee Good to the Epstein files to the criminal investigation into Jerome Powell, Bulwark editor-at-large Bill Kristol joins Sarah for a reflective conversation on the tough times we live in and how voters are processing them.

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Previous shows discussing the Epstein Files:
With Will Sommer (November 2025)
With Ashley Parker (September 2025)
With Will Sommer (July 2025)

The United States just captured Venezuela's dictator, and we needed to get some quick voter reactions. Is this REALLY what the newest members of Trump's coalition voted for? We're also sensing growing discontent from them with the state of the country, and with the Trump administration governing more for its friends than for them. Atlantic staff writer Jonathan Chait joins the show to break down voter sentiment nearly a year into Trump's term.

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Sarah started doing focus groups in 2018 and 2019 hoping to save the Republican Party from Trump—by finding a primary challenger who wouldn’t embarrass themselves. Instead, she discovered voters who were fine with Trump, and she picked up a years-long addiction that turned into this show. We listen to audio from Sarah’s earliest focus groups with reluctant Ohio Trump voters, and not-so-reluctant New Hampshire Trump voters. Then, Sarah and producer Conor Kilgore take some listener questions and look ahead to 2026 races.

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A year in review from The Focus Group Podcast: the revealing moments, toughest conversations, and warnings that hit a little harder with hindsight—from swing voters to Democrats to cracks inside MAGA.

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Original episodes:

Nothing is True, Everything is Possible (with Anne Applebaum): 
https://audioboom.com/posts/8711563-nothing-is-true-everything-is-possible-with-anne-applebaum

Do the Next Right Thing, Change the World (with Heather Cox Richardson):
https://audioboom.com/posts/8741588-do-the-next-right-thing-change-the-world-with-heather-cox-richardson

The GOP's Life After Trump (with Robert Draper):
https://audioboom.com/posts/8806639-the-gop-s-life-after-trump-with-robert-draper

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr.'s 'Make America Healthy Again' movement and its adherents have done some of the most harm of anyone in Donald Trump's second term. The voters who are motivated by 'MAHA' are also some of the most interesting. The Bulwark's resident healthcare expert, Jonathan Cohn joins the show to break down the policy consequences of RFK's healthcare regime, and what motivates the everyday 'MAHA' voter.

By Jonathan Cohn:
This Is What It Looks Like When RFK Jr. Wins

The American military used to be one of the more trusted institutions in America. In 2025, it's a major political football. But how much do voters know about the military and its proper use? Bulwark military expert, Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling (Ret.) joins the show.

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Swing voters are pretty fed up with politics in general. They’re often “swingy” because they can’t really stand either party. And in our most recent focus group, they all let political leaders HAVE IT. We also check in with Maine Democratic primary voters on their U.S. Senate race, which is shaping up to be one of the biggest proxy wars in the Democratic Party in 2026 and is telling us a lot about what Democrats are more willing to tolerate from candidates, as long as they fight. New York Times-turned-Vox host Astead Herndon makes his return to the show.

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By Astead Herndon:
Inside the Improbable, Audacious and (So Far) Unstoppable Rise of Zohran Mamdani
How Zohran Mamdani won over Donald Trump — for now

Donald Trump got elected in 2024 because voters felt prices were too high. But, as our guest says, that's not really a great thing for a politician to promise. So, as we head into the holiday season of Trump's first year back in office, how are his voters feeling about the state of the economy? New Bulwark economics editor Catherine Rampell joins the show to discuss the state of the economy and what politicians can and cannot do to fix it. We also hear from voters about how their holiday spending habits have changed since last year.

By Catherine Rampell:
Trump Is Falling Into the Same Trap That Ensnared Biden
Trump’s One Weird Trick for Eliminating Bad News: Delete It

Donald Trump had to make an about-face on the Epstein Files because some Trump voters were getting…mildly annoyed. Will Sommer joins Sarah to hear them out. Then, Sen. Elissa Slotkin joins the show to discuss her PSA with her colleagues to the military and intelligence community, reminding them they can refuse illegal orders. They also discuss the recent government shutdown fight, and what Sen. Slotkin learned from winning several tough races in Michigan.

NOTE: This episode discusses Sen. Slotkin and her colleagues’ message to the military and intelligence community that President Trump called “seditious behavior, punishable by death.” This conversation was taped before that Trump post.

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