The arrival of Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve marked a regime shift. At its June meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) dropped its easing bias, opening the door to interest rate hikes as supply shocks collide with hotter demand. The Fed also announced five new task forces to evaluate key priorities, from inflation frameworks to AI's impact on productivity and the labor market. Under Warsh, the central bank sent an unmistakable message: This is just the opening act for a very different Fed.

James Bullard, former President and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and current Dean of the Mitch Daniels School of Business at Purdue University, joins PGIM's Daleep Singh to analyze the start of the Warsh era at the Fed. They discuss policy challenges from inflation's resurgence, the case for lower rates over the long run, and potential market implications if the Fed changes how it conducts monetary policy.

The conversation also covers:

• The Fed's reaction function amid policy shifts and economic transformation
• Emerging similarities to the Fed's Greenspan era
• How changes to Fed communications and forward guidance could influence markets
• Economic outcomes from the AI boom – and why fears of job destruction might be overblown

The military concept of escalation dominance posits that the side controlling the pace and pain of a conflict determines the outcome. For most of the Cold War era, the U.S. had escalation dominance—militarily, technologically, and economically—but the use of economic statecraft was limited. That era is over. As great power competition intensifies, the relationship between the U.S. and China offers a view into where competition is headed and what it means for global stability. While the U.S.-China summit resulted in an effective truce, there are deeper takeaways that investors and other observers should consider.

PGIM's Daleep Singh welcomes Julian Gewirtz, former Senior Director for China and Taiwan Affairs at the National Security Council, to discuss the U.S.-China stalemate and the economic long game. The conversation covers topics including:

• Geopolitical and economic takeaways from the summit
• China's efforts to buy time—and potential U.S. policy responses
• Technological competition, including AI, chips and related minerals
• Strategies aimed at achieving AI superiority in pursuit of national interests

Global conflicts are increasingly playing out in the economic arena, not just on the battlefield. The war in Iran represents a collision of both. Physical and financial chokepoints can be used for strategic leverage; they also raise potential vulnerabilities. To unpack how and why economic warfare is reshaping the macro landscape, Daleep Singh speaks with Edward Fishman, author of "Chokepoints: American Power in the Age of Economic Warfare" and Senior Fellow and Director of the Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomics at the Council on Foreign Relations.

The discussion explores how investors can evaluate resilience to economic vulnerabilities, the future of economic statecraft amid heightened geopolitical competition, and chokepoints that investors should be watching in the future.

Marc Sumerlin, Managing Partner at Evenflow Macro and former Deputy Director of the White House National Economic Council under President George W. Bush, joins Daleep Singh for a conversation about economic transformation on this episode of PGIM's The Outthinking Investor.

Daleep and Marc talk about macro shocks stemming from the Iran war, how U.S. budget deficits will influence policy rates and the economy, and the relationship between monetary and fiscal authorities in a new age of economic competition.

The discussion also covers:

• The impact of tariffs and AI on the labor market
• Monetary policy challenges when navigating an energy shock
• The future of the U.S.-China trade relationship

Daleep welcomed Kurt for an in-depth look at the U.S.-China relationship and the Iran war's implications for Asia-Pacific. Speaking in front of a live audience, they also discussed how geopolitical shifts are reshaping economies, strategic leverage lurking in critical supply chains, and the outlook for Japan.

Daleep Singh catches up with Brad Setser, Whitney Shepardson senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations and former senior adviser to the U.S. Trade Representative, to gather his perspectives on how entrenched imbalances are translating into strategic leverage between economic powers. They explore the world's financial plumbing, changes in trade and capital flows, and the implications for global markets.

In this episode, Daleep and Brad also discuss:

• Why the world may be re-globalizing rather than deglobalizing

• China's export-driven economy

• The interplay between global trade and currency markets

• The future of U.S. trade in North America and Europe

• The outlook in Japan

Daleep Singh welcomes Jake Sullivan, the Kissinger Professor of the Practice of Statecraft and World Order at the Harvard Kennedy School and former U.S. National Security Advisor, for a conversation about the forces reshaping global power and what they mean for markets and investment strategy.

In this episode, Daleep and Jake discuss:

• Whether the world is moving toward regional spheres of influence;
• How technology is becoming the new battleground for great power competition;
• The interplay between national security, American statecraft, and the global economy;
• And how U.S. policy choices could impact economic strength and capital flows.

Markets trade on more than just economic data. They trade on geopolitics, technology, policy, and elections.

In a world searching for a new equilibrium, old assumptions are expensive mistakes. Daleep Singh, Vice Chair and Chief Global Economist at PGIM, has spent his career at the intersection of markets and policy, from the U.S. Treasury and Federal Reserve to the White House. Now, Daleep is sharing his perspectives with you. On PGIM's The Outthinking Investor, Daleep sits down with prominent economists, technologists, policymakers, and market veterans to map out the full distribution of what comes next—and why it matters.

Ray Dalio, founder of one of the world's largest hedge funds, Bridgewater Associates, joins us for a special edition of The Outthinking Investor.

Dalio sat down with PGIM's George Patterson, Chief Investment Officer of Quantitative Solutions, for a conversation about anticipating the onset of big market cycles and constructing balanced portfolios for new regimes. They discuss the impact of idiosyncratic risks and geopolitical shifts; the evolution of public and private credit markets; AI's transformative influence on the global economy; the five major forces that create big cycles; and the interplay between sovereign debt, the U.S. dollar, gold, and central banks. To understand big cycles, investors must look beyond the headlines and through a historical lens, Dalio explains.

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

The technology industry has spent heavily on all things AI, from training large language models (LLMs) to building up the infrastructure required to meet demand. Investments across a range of sectors with exposure to the AI boom, including cloud computing, chips, data centers and the power grid, have lifted economic growth and supported financial markets through a period of global uncertainty. One estimate from McKinsey & Co. suggests that demand for new and updated digital infrastructure will require an estimated $19 trillion in investments through 2040. Much of this capital will come from institutional investors. Supply-demand dynamics, the impact of new innovations, and the pace of adoption will help guide investors as they determine how to allocate their exposure to AI.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor explores growth opportunities and potential challenges across the AI ecosystem. Experts discuss sectors that stand to benefit from AI, intense demand for AI infrastructure, managing obsolescence risk, and whether AI can deliver on expectations for productivity and returns.

Our guests are:

• Richard Waters, Technology Writer-at-Large for the Financial Times
• Owen Hyde, Managing Director and Equity Research Analyst at Jennison

Learn more about the AI boom by visiting Jennison's AI Resource Center (https://www.jennison.com/campaignCountry/en/institutional/perspectives/ai-resource-center).

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.

Investors might be witnessing the biggest industrial reshoring effort in more than a generation. The global race for technological superiority—particularly around AI and critical semiconductors—is pushing both private capital and government support into ramping up domestic production. Meanwhile, shifting trade policies and geopolitical risk have ignited a realignment in global supply chains impacting a wide array of industries, from furniture to automobiles. But moving factories and building out domestic manufacturing capacity will likely face some speedbumps amid mismatches in labor, materials and costs. New innovations like factory automation bring their own set of implementation challenges. Understanding how the manufacturing outlook is evolving will be crucial as investors sort out potential winning and losing regions and industries. As factories prepare for the future, institutional investors are well positioned to provide the long-term capital that manufacturers seek to modernize operations, create more resilient supply chains, and grow.

This episode of The Outthinking Investor takes a deep dive into trade imbalances and tariffs; how manufacturers are dealing with macro uncertainty; manufacturing's role in supporting labor markets and the broader economy; potential obstacles that could slow reshoring; and portfolio strategies for capturing opportunities amid a manufacturing renaissance.

Our guests are:

• Robert Lawrence, Albert L. Williams Professor of International Trade and Investment at Harvard Kennedy School and former member of the Council of Economic Advisers

• Julius Krein, editor of policy journal American Affairs and head of policy at the New American Industrial Alliance

• Josh Shipley, executive managing director and head of Europe at PGIM, overseeing corporate finance offices in the region

Do you have any comments, suggestions, or topics you would like us to cover? Email us at [email protected], or fill out our survey at PGIM.com/podcast/outthinking-investor.

To hear more from PGIM, tune into Speaking of Alternatives, available on Spotify, Apple, Amazon Music, and other podcast platforms. Explore our entire collection of podcasts at PGIM.com.