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Danny and Derek discuss the latest developments in the war in Iran, including the U.S. bombing military targets on Kharg Island; Iran’s retaliation in the UAE and strategy around the Strait of Hormuz; the status of Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei after reportedly sustaining wounds; Israel’s possible plan to occupy southern Lebanon and reports of interceptor shortages; China’s muted response to the war; and the U.S. deploying Marines to the region.

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Danny and Derek welcome to the podcast political scientist Robert Pape to talk about the theory and history of air power. They discuss how ideas of air superiority shaped modern military doctrine and the belief that air power alone can coerce or topple regimes. They then focus on the war with Iran, including the U.S. strategy falling into the “smart bomb trap,” Iran’s strategy of horizontal escalation, the use of precision drones, the risks surrounding dispersed nuclear material, and the potential economic and geopolitical shocks as the conflict expands.

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Danny and Derek speak with Spencer Ackerman, writer of ⁠Forever Wars⁠ newsletter and author of ⁠Reign of Terror: How the 9/11 Era Destabilized America⁠ about the war in Iran, how it emerges from recent history, its military aspects, and much more.

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We’re putting out, what, an episode a day at this point? But the news roundup must go on. This week: In the Iran war, casualty and displacement figures rise across Iran and Lebanon (1:20), Iran mines and threatens to close the Strait of Hormuz (4:31), Iranian officials threaten to expand the war by targeting financial institutions across the Gulf (7:47), and new supreme leader Mustafa Khomeini delivers his first address (10:27); in Gaza, aid shortages deepen as food supplies run low (16:01); escalating drone warfare hits markets, towns, and civilian targets in Sudan (17:19); in Mali, the U.S. moves to restore counterterrorism cooperation and reconnaissance flights with the ruling junta (22:20); new warnings of conflict emerge in Ethiopia’s Tigray region (24:51); Nepal’s Rastriya Swatantra Party secures a landslide victory in the latest elections (28:26); in Ukraine, the UN accuses Russia of committing a crime against humanity through the forced transfer of Ukrainian children (30:07); far-right politician José Antonio Kast takes office as president of Chile following the end of Gabriel Boric’s term (31:31); in Haiti, human rights groups warn about civilian harm from an expanding drone campaign targeting gangs in Port-au-Prince (34:05); and in these United States, investigations into the Minab elementary school strike raise questions about the use of AI-assisted targeting in U.S. military operations (35:41), plus Donald Trump hosts the first “Shield of the Americas” summit at his Doral resort (39:44).

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Derek welcomes back legal scholar Maryam Jamshidi to discuss the legal aspect of the U.S.–Israel war on Iran. They talk about the administration’s shifting legal justifications, why the administration’s claims about Iranian threats and nuclear weapons fail under international law, the legal limits of self-defense, how the conflict fits within the laws of war, and the broader humanitarian and political consequences of the war for Iranian civilians and the country’s future. 

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Danny and Derek give an update on the war in Iran and the region. They discuss Israeli strikes on fuel depots outside Tehran and the growing civilian toll, the pace of Iranian missile and drone retaliation against Israel, the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran’s new supreme leader, and the regional expansion of the conflict including ongoing Israeli attacks in Lebanon.

Note: After the time of recording, ⁠CNN confirmed⁠ that Iran is placing mines in the Strait of Hormuz.

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Danny and Derek speak with historian Alfred McCoy about how the Cold War operated as a global conflict influenced by decolonization, covert action, and geopolitical strategy. They discuss the role of individual intelligence operatives as “men on the spot”; Cold War rivalry and the collapse of European empires; how conflicts across Asia, Africa, and Latin America produced much of the war’s violence; the development of U.S. containment strategy and covert action institutions; and Iran as flashpoint in Cold War and post-Cold War geopolitics, and how Alfred interprets these conflicts through a lens of imperial decline and strategic chokepoints like the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz.

Buy Alfred’s book Cold War on Five Continents!

Reading recommendation: The Cold War's Killing Fields: Rethinking the Long Peace by Paul Thomas Chamberlin.

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Danny and Derek welcome back historian Djene Bajalan to talk about the Iran War and whether the U.S. and Israel are attempting to destabilize the Iranian state by opening a Kurdish front. They discuss debates over Israeli strategy being aimed at regime collapse, whether the United States and Israel are pursuing different objectives in the conflict, and the strategy behind attempts to destabilize Iran through peripheral pressure. They also get into reporting about a potential Kurdish front, including the roles of Iraqi Kurdish authorities, Iranian Kurdish militias in Iraqi Kurdistan, and the limits of Kurdish military capacity.

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Derek welcomes back Esfandyar Batmanghelidj, founder and CEO of the Bourse and Bazaar Foundation and professor at Johns Hopkins University, to discuss the economic consequences of the Iran war and its implications for the Gulf and the global economy. They discuss Iran’s strikes on Gulf infrastructure, disruptions to shipping and energy routes through the Strait of Hormuz, risks to logistics hubs like Dubai and Doha, rising oil prices, the vulnerability of global supply chains, and the potential long-term economic impact of the conflict on the Gulf.

Read Esfandyar’s article in Foreign Policy, “The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy.”

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Danny and Derek discuss the escalating war with Iran, including the expanding U.S. and Israeli bombing campaign, the reported U.S. strike on an Iranian school, America sinking the Iranian ship IRIS Dena, Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the resulting oil shock, Israel’s attacks in Lebanon, and the Trump administration’s demand for Iran’s unconditional surrender as the conflict shows signs of lasting for months.

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We don’t have whatever they were giving JFK to power through the Cuban Missile Crisis, but we’re keeping up here. This week’s news: in the Iran War, the U.S. prepares to use Kurdish proxy forces against the Islamic Republic (1:26) while offering shifting timelines and contradictory explanations for the war (6:32), plus Iran searches for a new supreme leader (11:54); Hezbollah launches rockets into Israel after months of being bombarded, so Israel escalates its strikes across Lebanon (16:24); Afghanistan and Pakistan exchange airstrikes and artillery fire as fighting along their border displaces tens of thousands (19:26); Turkey considers reentering the F-35 program as part of new energy negotiations with the U.S. (22:56); Nepal holds a major election following last year’s protests (26:40); fighting intensifies in Sudan’s Kordofan and Blue Nile regions (28:05); M23 launches drone strikes deeper into the Democratic Republic of the Congo as the United States sanctions Rwandan military officials (31:56); a Russian LNG tanker is sunk in the Mediterranean amid suspicions of Ukrainian involvement (34:40); France proposes expanding its nuclear umbrella over Europe (38:01); the U.S. launches a new military operation targeting drug cartels in Ecuador (40:20); Congress strikes down legislation that would halt the Iran war (41:46); and the Trump administration moves ahead with new global tariffs while the courts order billions in refunds for the last batch that were struck down (44:41).

Grab a copy of Danny and Michael Brenes’ edited volume Cold War Liberalism: Power in a Time of Emergency. Use the discount code BESSNER26.

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