This week we get into portfolio theory, or lack of, as for many the rush to big tech and wilful ignorance of everything else Wall Street has to offer seems to be the rule as opposed to the exception. Why is that, and is it sustainable? [Repeat from February, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The Magnificent Seven: Unpacking the Impact of Big US Tech Stocks

In this episode, Richard Kramer and Will Page, analysts specializing in financial markets, discuss the 'Magnificent Seven', a term referring to the big US tech companies and their significant market impact. Kramer eloquently illustrates the concentration of wealth within these tech giants and their extensive media coverage, which contributes to their continual growth. They discuss the concept of long tail distributions and how it correlates with a constraint in attention leading to invested interest in just a few companies. They scrutinize the implications of concentrated wealth and potential future industry shifts, emphasizing the need for cautious investment strategies, despite the allure of being swept up in booming tech sectors.

00:01 Introduction

00:48 Part One

00:48 The Role of Big US Tech in Portfolio Theory

03:30 The Magnificent Seven: Who Are They?

07:28 The Long Tail Effect in Financial Markets

22:56 The Investment Thesis: Backing Big Tech

23:13 Part Two

23:25 The Geographic Disparity in Big Tech

38:09 Smoke Signals: Indicators of Market Shifts

41:41 Conclusion: The Future of Big Tech Investments

41:54 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We have had over 30 episodes of Bubble Trouble this year, and had some real highlights along with a mad world we are living in. And now after a predictions show with Benedict Evans last week, we move on to our own look back to highlight the must-listen shows of 2024 and turn to the top troubles with bubbles to watch out for in 2025.

Will’s favorite shows of 2024:

Law Without Lawyers: A Conversation with Damien Riehl

The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin

You Can't Lead If You Don't Know Where You're Going

Richards favorite shows of 2024:

AI Supremacy and Ethical Dilemmas: A Conversation with Parmy Olson

Kill the Chicken to Scare The Monkey with guest Linda Yueh

The Meltdown of Credit Suisse w/ Duncan Mavin

Fiscal Drag Queen

Thames Water gets Whacked with guest Feargal Sharkey

Will’s folder of research reports: HERE

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Bubble Trouble Year-End Review: Top Episodes and Predictions for 2025

00:00 Introduction and Year in Review

00:33 Part One

00:41 Predictions and Highlights of 2024

01:16 Memorable Moments and Listener Feedback

02:44 Bronze Medal: Bill Raduchel’s Insight

04:58 Silver Medal: Duncan Maven and Credit Suisse

07:43 Gold Medal: Law Without Lawyers

11:09 Richard's Oscar Categories

13:48 Social Impact: Fergal Sharky on Water Management

17:36 Market Bubbles and Fiscal Policies

22:13 Closing Thoughts and Part Two Teaser

22:38 Part Two

22:59 Predictions and Skepticism

23:32 AI and the Rationalization of Apps

24:47 Winners and Losers in the AI Era

25:57 The Future of Review Platforms

28:28 Emerging Companies to Watch

35:13 Market Trends and Volatility

40:36 The Crisis in Journalism

44:40 AI Hype vs. Reality

45:57 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

47:14 Credits

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Back by popular demand, returning guest Benedict Evans to help us work out where we’ll be a year from now. This is our first predictions show, and Benedict has been brave enough to lead from the front with his latest presentation AI Eats the World. Will it? And if it does, what sort of indigestion will it bring? We double down on what the next twelve months will bring given the avalanche of “events-dear-boy-events” we’ve witnessed in the last twelve. 

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Join hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page in one of the final episodes of 2024 as they team up with independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist and author Will Page, alongside returning guest Benedict Evans. In this prediction-packed episode, the trio dives into the year-long buzz around AI. They dissect the concept of 'AI Eats the World' — exploring if AI truly has the transformative power it's touted to have and what potential pitfalls could arise. From decoding AI trends to the proliferation of machine learning across industries, this episode provides a candid discussion on the future of AI, its impacts, and the upcoming challenges. Plus, they explore legal implications, the role of consultancy giants like Accenture in the AI wave, and the future landscape of professions impacted by AI innovations. Don't miss this insightful deep dive into what technology and AI advancements might hold for the year ahead.

00:00 Introduction and Show Setup

00:46 Part One

01:19 Understanding AI and Machine Learning

03:46 AI's Practical Applications

07:06 AI in the Legal Profession

15:58 Jevons Paradox and AI's Future Impact

21:01  Part Two

25:01 Creative Brainstorming with AI

25:11 The Value of Unique Perspectives

25:53 Skepticism Towards Big Consultancies

26:55 Accenture's Role in AI

28:33 Generative AI in Business

31:37 The Democratization of AI

34:02 AI's Impact on Various Industries

41:19 Future of AI in Media and Entertainment

45:51 Closing Thoughts and Reflections

46:38 Credits

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When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.

00:00 Introduction

01:18 Part One

02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked

06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior

10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks

16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share

18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans

23:09 Part Two

24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact

25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges

26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers

27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding

28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization

34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets

40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions

42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading

46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

46:53 Credits

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In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:35 Part One

01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright

02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright

07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption

17:08 The Vinyl Revival

19:31 Part Two

19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright

22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton

22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming

23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade

24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance

26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success

28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene

30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists

33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming

37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships

40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright

41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes

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Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments.

00:00 Introduction

00:48 Part One

02:16 Transforming King's Cross

03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development

05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations

08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects

15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID

20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development

24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges

25:34 Part Two

26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK

29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case

32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two

34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed

36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development

42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development

52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections

53:17 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse. 

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Part One

01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven

02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse

03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime

05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse

09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking

15:21 The Mozambique Scandal

19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse

23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal

23:47 Part Two

23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse

24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse

26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals

28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis

32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking

40:05 Reception of the Book

42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts

46:37 Credits

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This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…  [Repeat from March, 2024.]

Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Part One

00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

27:22 Part Two

27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

47:28 Credits

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This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan

01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights

02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply

04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation

06:13 AI and the Future of Music

12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media

13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators

19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores

25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry

27:33 Part Two

28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype

30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies

30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View

31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies

33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom

35:15 Bifurcation in the Market

43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption

44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry

46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions

52:00 Credits

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Podcasts are having another moment:  Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. 

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:59 Part One

02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts

05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization

09:09 The Future of Media Consumption

22:11 Part Two

22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions

37:46 AI and Data Utilization

46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell

48:33 Credits

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Repeat from November, 2023.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome

00:46 Part One

00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz

02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model

06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism

07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms

08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy

09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers

15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends

28:47 Part Two

32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?

36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads

36:34 The Struggles of Threads

36:59 The Power of Network Effects

38:17 The Limitations of Threads

39:48 The Rise of Reddit

40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape

40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter

41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta

44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces

45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter

49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership

54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies

58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions

59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter

01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology

01:02:34 Credits

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