When markets get fooled, stocks get …well, WHACKED, to quote a famous Kramerism. Our audience deserves to know more about volatility - for all the PhDs, MBAs and CFAs working on Wall Street, for all the compliance rules and regulations, why is it that a stock can go from hero to zero so quickly? Why is stability in itself destabilizing? [Repeat from May, 2024]

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Understanding Market Volatility: The Seven Deadly Sins That Get Stocks Whacked

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosted by independent analyst Richard Kramer and economist Will Page, the duo delves into the intricacies of stock market volatility and the factors that lead to significant drops in stock values, often referred to as getting 'whacked.' They explore why financial markets remain volatile despite compliance rules and thorough analysis by Wall Street's experts. Using recent examples like Duolingo and Double Verify, they highlight how sentiment, market expectations, and artificial intelligence fears influence stock performance. They introduce the concept of the seven deadly sins—ranging from expectations management to fake it till you make it—that companies and analysts commit, causing stocks to tank. The discussion covers essential themes like the role of credibility, influence of peer performance, external market factors, and the impact of fear and greed. They also touch on larger market dynamics, such as the dominance of tech giants and the influence of algorithmic trading. The episode is both an educational dive into market mechanics and a cautionary tale for investors, emphasizing the importance of understanding broader market sentiments and the potential pitfalls of speculative trading.

00:00 Introduction

01:18 Part One

02:30 Recent Examples of Stocks Getting Whacked

06:08 The Role of Expectations in Market Behavior

10:53 Credibility and Its Impact on Stocks

16:17 The Influence of Peer Groups and Market Share

18:19 Mathematical Models and Black Swans

23:09 Part Two

24:15 The Sheer Size of Companies and Market Impact

25:13 Big Companies and Revenue Growth Challenges

26:33 Market Dynamics and Money Managers

27:04 Thought Experiment: Market Crowding

28:53 Taxing Market Capitalization

34:18 Fear and Greed in Financial Markets

40:11 Unprofitable IPOs and Market Distortions

42:47 Seven Deadly Sins of Stock Trading

46:22 Conclusion and Final Thoughts

46:53 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

In the last couple episodes, we've looked at the property market, we've looked at the demise of Credit Suisse, but now we're gonna go one-on-one with Will Page, talking about his latest work: How much is copyright worth and the way in which music is having its own, getting back at cinema.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and economist Will Page dive into the fascinating world of music copyright. They explore the market value, currently pegged at $45.5 billion, and discuss what this number entails, including the roles of record labels, collecting societies, and publishers. They delve deep into the growing significance of vinyl records, the influence of streaming services, and the striking impact of globalization on music trade flows. Additionally, they discuss new market opportunities, the potential for further growth, and the future of direct artist-to-fan engagements. Join the conversation to understand the changing dynamics of the music industry and the economic forces shaping it.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:35 Part One

01:10 Exploring the Value of Copyright

02:23 The Economics of Music Copyright

07:12 Streaming vs. Cinema: A Shift in Consumption

17:08 The Vinyl Revival

19:31 Part Two

19:31 Global Impact of Music Copyright

22:32 The Global Impact of Reggaeton

22:47 Economic Disparities in Music Streaming

23:25 The Big Mac Index and Media Trade

24:50 K-Pop's Global Dominance

26:20 The Role of Government in Music Industry Success

28:36 Canada's Multicultural Music Scene

30:06 The Rise of Punjabi-Canadian Artists

33:12 The Future of Music Copyright and Streaming

37:41 Direct Artist-to-Fan Relationships

40:50 Emerging Markets and the Future of Copyright

41:51 Conclusion and Future Episodes

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Today we are going deep with a real creator. No, not one of the avatars of AI influencers in the creator economy, but someone who builds things that take 20 years to complete, Roger Madelin, CBE, the name behind the scenes in making London's Kings Cross a reality.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Transformation and Challenges with King's Cross Visionary Roger Madeline

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into urban development with Roger Madelin, CBE. Known for his transformative work at London's King's Cross, Roger shares insights on large-scale urban projects, navigating economic cycles, and the intricacies of aligning diverse stakeholders' interests. The discussion also covers the controversial HS2 rail project, the importance of integrating cultural elements in city planning, and the current political landscape influencing housing policies. Roger emphasizes the need for a strong vision, the significance of public spaces, and the necessity of balancing private and public sector efforts to create vibrant, inclusive urban environments.

00:00 Introduction

00:48 Part One

02:16 Transforming King's Cross

03:56 Reflecting on Urban Development

05:48 The Impact of Smartening Up Train Stations

08:45 Navigating Economic Cycles in Urban Projects

15:20 The Future of Workspaces Post-COVID

20:09 Balancing Luxury and Community in Property Development

24:48 Preview of Part Two: HS2 and Urban Planning Challenges

25:34 Part Two

26:50 Challenges of High-Speed Rail in the UK

29:43 The Flaws in High-Speed Two's Business Case

32:08 Comparing High-Speed One and High-Speed Two

34:00 The Importance of Comfort Over Speed

36:03 The Role of Arts and Culture in City Development

42:09 Political and Economic Challenges in Urban Development

52:24 Closing Remarks and Reflections

53:17 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

On Bubble Trouble, we are never short of subject matter: from the metaverse, NFTs and Chinese real estate, to Silicon Valley Bank and er… that small issue of a former global powerhouse Credit Suisse. Remember them? Well our guest, Duncan Mavin, knows their story better than anyone, and he’s documented them in the wonderfully titled Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze and the Collapse of Credit Suisse. 

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Credit Suisse: A Rolling Crisis in Banking Scandals

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Will Page and Richard Kramer discuss the collapse of Credit Suisse with journalist and author Duncan Maven. They delve into Maven's book 'Meltdown: Scandal, Sleaze, and the Collapse of Credit Suisse,' exploring the myriad of crises that plagued the bank. They touch on scandals ranging from rogue traders and sanctions busting to laundering Nazi gold and funding corrupt projects in Mozambique. The conversation also highlights the rapid acquisition of Credit Suisse by UBS over a tense and decisive weekend. Duncan Maven provides insights into the bank’s culture, the broader implications for the banking sector, and why people should care about the ethics in banking. The episode concludes with the discussion of warning signs (or smoke signals) that indicate deeper issues within financial institutions.

00:00 Introduction

01:00 Part One

01:09 Guest Introduction: Duncan Maven

02:31 The Rise and Fall of Credit Suisse

03:32 The Impact of White Collar Crime

05:08 Cultural Issues at Credit Suisse

09:56 Historical Context of Swiss Banking

15:21 The Mozambique Scandal

19:49 The Role of Social Media in Credit Suisse's Collapse

23:00 The Bulgarian Mafia and Credit Suisse Scandal

23:47 Part Two

23:54 The Collapse of Credit Suisse

24:32 UBS Absorbs Credit Suisse

26:41 The Aftermath and Lingering Scandals

28:57 The Swiss Financial Crisis

32:58 The Future of Swiss Banking

40:05 Reception of the Book

42:08 Smoke Signals and Final Thoughts

46:37 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week, we’re talking taxes. Don’t switch off, don’t fall asleep and please don’t hire an accountant as the next 45 minutes will defy the laws of gravity and make taxes sexy. Or make saxes testy…  [Repeat from March, 2024.]

Mentioned in today’s show: Barbarians at the Gate: https://youtu.be/Z3HiONtjZSM?si=xZ64zb46sYIfSs5Z

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this engaging episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the complex world of taxes with humor and depth. They discuss the UK's tax system, the incentives it creates, and its contribution to economic inequalities. The duo delves into the problems of the tax code, including issues surrounding tax avoidance by the wealthy, lack of public sector productivity improvements, and the inefficiencies within the HMRC. Kramer and Page critique the approach of privatizing public utilities and the potential problems with private equity in the public sector. They also touch on broader issues like the lack of investment in tax authority systems and propose using tax policies for positive changes, like encouraging the shift from petrol to electric cars in Denmark. Through their insightful conversation, Kramer and Page aim to demystify taxes and highlight their significant impact on society.

00:00 Introduction

00:46 Part One

00:51 The UK's Budget Week and Tax System Insights

01:48 Tax Evasion vs. Public Sector Productivity

02:46 The Inequality of Tax Codes: A Global Issue

04:03 Tax System Flaws and Their Impact on Society

07:22 VAT: The Taxpayer as Tax Collector

11:31 The Complexity of National Insurance

13:43 Simplifying Tax Systems: A Call for Transparency

16:28 Private Equity and Tax Systems: A New Challenge

22:39 Decoding the Fiscal Drag Queen

23:00 The Political Divide on Taxation

23:21 Economic Lecture: Tax Burden and Growth

25:07 The Impact of Fiscal Drag on Tax Bands

26:15 The Surprising Windfall from Fiscal Drag

27:22 Part Two

27:45 Exploring the World of Private Equity

28:51 The Tax Loopholes Fueling Private Equity

32:24 The Potential Bubble in Public Utilities

36:26 The Disconnect Between Tax Policy and Reality

43:58 A Positive Tax Example from Denmark

47:28 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

This week we welcome Mark Mulligan of MIDiA Research who has had a ringside seat for years and years of bubbles, be it the creator economy, NFTs or AI music, or just everyone claiming they are gaining market share at the same time. He is the founder and driving force behind the tiny little company that an entire industry looks to as the source of truth.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page are joined by Mark Mulligan, a leading music industry analyst and founder of MIDiA Research. They delve into the intricate world of the music industry, discussing the evolution from digital streaming to the rise of new phenomena such as NFTs and AI in music. The trio explores the concept of bifurcation in markets and the distinction between high-end experiences versus bargain deals within the industry. The conversation also touches on the significant cultural shifts, the role of trade associations, and the future of personalized music experiences. Despite the optimism around technology, the hosts remain critical of mainstream narratives, emphasizing the importance of genuine innovation and realistic market assessments. This insightful and provocative discussion is a must-listen for anyone interested in the intersection of music, technology, and finance.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

01:02 Welcoming Special Guest Mark Mulligan

01:26 Mark Mulligan's Background and Insights

02:34 The Evolution of Music Supply

04:20 The Democratization of Music Creation

06:13 AI and the Future of Music

12:16 Fragmentation and Hyper-Targeting in Media

13:40 The Role of Superstars and Long Tail Creators

19:20 Streaming Platforms: Carnivores vs. Herbivores

25:45 TikTok's Influence on the Music Industry

27:33 Part Two

28:38 Diving into the Music Industry's Hype

30:08 Constructive Criticism in Emerging Technologies

30:39 The Metaverse and NFTs: A Skeptical View

31:28 Frameworks for Assessing New Technologies

33:10 The Future of Digital Fandom

35:15 Bifurcation in the Market

43:07 Pendulum Swings in Technology Adoption

44:54 Lessons from the Aviation Industry

46:29 Final Thoughts and Predictions

52:00 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Podcasts are having another moment:  Trump on Joe Rogan, Kamala on Call Her Daddy. New media is overtaking old media in audience and influence. Back in early 2023, we welcomed guest Lauren Jarvis, who helped bring Rogan to Spotify and growing podcasts into the medium we see today. Given this week’s election mania, we bring Lauren back to make sense of it all. 

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

The Podcast Boom: Analyzing Influence and the Future of Media

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page delve into the evolving landscape of the podcast industry with guest Lauren Jarvis. They discuss the resurgence of podcasts as a significant media platform, touching on notable examples like Joe Rogan's recent Trump interview. The conversation also covers the economic potential of podcasts, their role in reaching new audiences, and the gamification of learning as a growing trend in tech. Jarvis shares insights on the integration of technology into daily life and the future of media consumption.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:59 Part One

02:52 Political Influence of Podcasts

05:26 Audience Engagement and Monetization

09:09 The Future of Media Consumption

22:11 Part Two

22:13 Tech Trends and Predictions

37:46 AI and Data Utilization

46:12 Closing Thoughts and Farewell

48:33 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

Repeat from November, 2023.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page engage in an in-depth discussion with Alex Kantrowitz, veteran tech journalist and founder of Big Technology. The discussion provides insights on some of the issues and dilemmas facing Twitter (now called X) under the leadership of Elon Musk. Kantrowitz offers valuable perspectives on the changing dynamics in the tech world, touching on the rise of Reddit, problems with 'Threads', and the impact of new leadership on Twitter's performance and brand value. The conversation also delves into the principle of 'Effective Altruism' prevalent in Silicon Valley and what it signifies about tech leadership. Analysis of recent data reveals Twitter's shrinking user base and engagement, though it remains a highly popular app. The episode wraps with Kantrowitz sharing about his newsletter 'Big Technology', and its recent features.

00:00 Introduction and Welcome

00:46 Part One

00:52 Interview with Tech Journalist Alex Kantrowicz

02:17 Exploring Twitter's History and Business Model

06:52 Twitter's Influence and Impact on Journalism

07:32 The Decline of Traditional Media and the Rise of Digital Platforms

08:45 Twitter's Role in the Attention Economy

09:54 Twitter's Popularity and Influence Despite Declining Numbers

15:06 Analyzing Twitter's User Data and Trends

28:47 Part Two

32:37 The Future of Twitter: Cyclical or Structural Decline?

36:26 Twitter's Competition: Reddit and Threads

36:34 The Struggles of Threads

36:59 The Power of Network Effects

38:17 The Limitations of Threads

39:48 The Rise of Reddit

40:04 The Role of Reddit in the Social Media Landscape

40:54 The Impact of Pocket App on Twitter

41:25 The Irrelevance of Threads and the Power of Meta

44:20 The Challenges Twitter Faces

45:50 Potential Strategies to Save Twitter

49:32 The Future of Twitter Under Musk's Leadership

54:51 The Role of Effective Altruism in Tech Companies

58:57 The Danger of Singular Solutions

59:27 The Value of Comments and the Future of Twitter

01:01:38 Closing Remarks and Promotion of Big Technology

01:02:34 Credits

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The past week has seen US stocks–and gold, btw–rally to record highs. This week, we’re going to apply the magnifying glass to the ‘Magnificent Seven’ that are driving this rally and ask what happens when the sheer size of these US corporations, or corporate value, starts to overtake individual European stock markets. That’s right - any one of these US companies are worth more than British or German capitalism.  With an election on the horizon, time to figure out what this all means.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Bubble Trouble: Giants of Global Markets and Economic Quandaries

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, Richard Kramer and Will Page explore the dominance of the 'Magnificent Seven' US corporations in the recent stock market rally and their comparison to European markets. They discuss the significant influence of American tech CEOs versus their European counterparts, global lobbying efforts by big tech, and the economic impact of major tech product launches like Apple's iPhone 16 on UK retail sales. The episode analyzes the UK's economic challenges, governmental budget constraints, and tax policy trade-offs, including the freezing of tax thresholds. The hosts delve into the broader societal and economic consequences of media monopolies, infrastructure investments, and the peculiarities of contemporary political landscapes. 

00:00 

00:00 Introduction

00:55 Part One

01:00 Feedback and OpenAI Discussion

02:41 The Magnificent Seven: US Companies vs. European Markets

04:29 Comparing Market Values

07:26 Future Projections and Power Dynamics

12:50 European Response and Regulatory Challenges

15:49 Investment Strategies and Market Resilience

18:21 Retail Sales and Apple's Influence

19:30 Part Two

19:30 UK's Economic Challenges and Government Budget

22:19 Tax Policies and Fiscal Strategies

30:18 The Impact of Media and Big Tech

35:29 Concluding Thoughts and Audience Engagement

36:49 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We thought we’d get a little political on this week’s show. Are we serving up a bubble that was a landslide UK election, or is the new government trouble a bubble? And we want to deconstruct Will’s Pessimism Paradox as it applies to the place we most often seen bubbles, in high finance where the less certain the outcomes to higher the markets go.

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

Deconstructing Economic Pessimism in the Wake of a New Government

In this episode of Bubble Trouble, hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page discuss the political and economic landscape in the UK following the first 100 days of a new government. They analyze the concept of political and economic bubbles, questioning whether pessimism dominates current narratives. The discussion spans issues like the impact of the cloud on GDP measurement, tax policies, and the importance of attracting talent over traditional economic metrics. The hosts also delve into the role of economists’ outlooks during different economic conditions. The episode underscores the significance of focusing on new strategies and the long-term impact of political decisions, highlighting the government and economic system's current challenges.

00:00 Introduction to Bubble Trouble

00:44 Part One

00:50 Analyzing the New Government's First 100 Days

03:56 The Pessimism Paradox Explained

14:13 Debating Economic Growth and GDP

18:59 Part Two

19:19 Tax Policies and Economic Challenges

25:23 The Talent Competition and Immigration

28:57 Reflections on Political Labels and Strategy

32:47 Conclusion and Listener Engagement

33:25 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.

We always try to flag the smoke signals of mischievous market behaviour that gets society and stock  portfolios into trouble. Are we about to get fooled again by the hype and hysteria surrounding the poster child Open AI?  Or maybe, just maybe, it’s worth joining us for 30 minutes to find what really sits behind a 150bn valuation and ask whether beauty is in the eye of the beholder?

For more on Bubble Trouble, including transcripts of the show, visit us online at http://bubbletroublepodcast.com

You can learn more about Richard at https://www.linkedin.com/in/richard-kramer-16306b2/

More on Will Page at: https://pivotaleconomics.com

(Times below correspond to the episode without considering any inserted advertisements.)

In the latest episode of Bubble Trouble, co-hosts Richard Kramer and Will Page dive into the hype surrounding OpenAI, now valued at $150 billion. They examine the risks of market hype and hysteria behind this soaring valuation, discussing the broader implications for society and the tech industry. The episode explores the nuances of company valuations, comparing public versus private market insights and the lack of transparency in the private sector. With references to past tech bubbles, the hosts analyze the potential conflicts of interest among investors and question the sustainability of current trajectories in tech valuations. As they await the next bubble to burst, Kramer and Page emphasize the importance of scrutinizing underlying business fundamentals in an era of outsized market valuations.

00:00 Introduction

00:49 Part One

01:04 The AI Hype and OpenAI's Valuation

03:25 Understanding Company Valuations

06:32 Public vs Private Market Valuations

10:56 The Transparency Challenge in Tech

15:26 Reflecting on Past Episodes and Lessons

21:12 Part Two

21:49 The Role of Central Banks in Market Bubbles

25:32 Exploring OpenAI's Valuation and Market Dynamics

36:09 Smoke Signals and Future Predictions

43:46 Credits

Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.