Matt Jones and Neil Staines preview a holiday-shortened week shaped by geopolitics, energy risks, and shifting central bank reaction functions.

In the UK, weaker labour, inflation, retail sales, and PMI data have pushed growth fragility back into focus, while the RBA signals a pause and the ECB faces a more acute policy dilemma. Neil also looks ahead to key data from Europe, Japan, and the US, including core PCE, revised Q1 GDP, and consumer confidence, with Strait of Hormuz risks still capable of driving oil and broader market volatility.

Chapters

00:00 Show Intro
 00:29 UK and RBA Outlook
 02:42 Global Data Watch
 04:31 US Markets and Geopolitics
 06:07 Long Weekend Sports Picks
 06:48 Long and Short Trades
 07:19 Wrap-Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This week’s episode focuses on rising UK political volatility, its impact on the UK yield curve, and the implications of high debt, elevated deficits, and limited fiscal headroom. Neil also looks at why stronger recent growth data may need to be treated with caution, as seasonality, higher oil prices, and rising yields create a more complicated backdrop for Q2 and Q3.

Globally, attention turns to whether the Trump-Xi meeting represents genuine progress or simply a stabilisation of relations. Neil discusses the market reaction to comments on the Strait of Hormuz, the potential implications for oil and yields, and the data points to watch across China, Australia, Japan, and emerging markets.

In the US, hotter CPI and PPI data, resilient activity, and growing market divergence keep the focus on the FOMC minutes, NVIDIA earnings, and developments around Iran.

Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to a packed sporting weekend, including football, golf, and the Women’s Six Nations Grand Slam decider.

Chapters

00:00 Show intro
 00:29 UK politics and data
 02:11 Global macro watchlist
 04:22 US inflation and the Fed
 06:09 Weekend sports picks
 06:49 Long and short calls
 07:23 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to discuss the macroeconomic themes shaping the week ahead for professional investors.

This week’s conversation covers UK political volatility following the local elections, the fiscal implications for gilt markets, and the outlook for UK assets as markets await Q1 GDP. Neil explains why Eurizon SLJ remains less optimistic than the market on UK growth, and why Bank of England rate cuts in 2026 may remain on the table.

The discussion also turns to the global macro backdrop, where a potential US-Iran off-ramp has helped reduce the energy risk premium and supported market sentiment. However, Neil highlights a widening pattern of regional and sectoral differentiation, with Korea, Taiwan and the US benefiting from the AI semiconductor and memory CapEx cycle, while Europe remains more exposed to the energy shock.

Looking ahead, key data and events include Eurozone sentiment indicators, Australia confidence data after the RBA’s latest rate hike, China CPI and PPI, the Trump-Xi meeting, and a major week of US data including payrolls, CPI, retail sales and Empire Manufacturing.

Neil also shares his long and short calls for the week: long the hope of a possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, and short the hope of a near-term UK economic recovery.

For professional investors only.

Chapter markers

00:00 Welcome and introductions
 00:29 UK politics and gilt market implications
 01:17 The oil shock, UK GDP and Bank of England policy
 02:20 Global markets and the return of differentiation
 03:18 Eurozone, Australia and China watchlist
 04:33 US data, inflation and Fed focus
 06:18 Weekend sports watchlist
 07:15 Long and short calls
 07:40 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines, Senior Portfolio Manager at Eurizon SLJ Capital, to preview the macro themes shaping the week ahead.

This episode focuses on how persistent oil-price shocks could affect global monetary policy. Neil discusses the Bank of England’s warning that higher oil prices may imply a tighter policy path, the underlying weakness in the UK economy, and the added market uncertainty around local elections.

The conversation also covers the Bank of Japan, yen weakness and MOF intervention, the ECB’s rate-hike outlook, and the key US data to watch, including non-farm payrolls, JOLTS, ADP and ISM. With the Fed on hold, oil, inflation risks and demand trends remain central to the policy outlook.

To close, Matt and Neil look ahead to the UK bank holiday weekend, including football, the Snooker World Championship, Formula One’s return at the Miami Grand Prix, and Charles Leclerc’s reported golfing masterclass from Rickie Fowler before getting back to a different kind of driving.

Key topics: Bank of England, oil prices, ECB, Bank of Japan, Fed, US payrolls, yen intervention, ISM, AI CapEx, Formula One.

Chapters:
00:00 Welcome and introductions
00:29 UK week ahead
02:24 Global central banks
04:26 US payroll week
06:30 Bank holiday banter
07:31 Long and short picks
07:57 Wrap-up and disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

This week marks the fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead.

In this milestone episode, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss a busy week for global macro markets, with central banks, inflation, oil prices, and political uncertainty all in focus.

Neil looks at the UK after a volatile week for politics and data, assessing what recent inflation, labour market, and retail sales figures could mean for the Bank of England. He then turns to a packed global central bank calendar, including the Bank of Japan, Bank of Canada, ECB, and Fed, where markets will be watching closely for signals on the balance between inflation risks and growth concerns.

The discussion also covers the US macro outlook, the final stages of Jerome Powell’s tenure at the Fed, key data releases, major technology earnings, and the wider implications of the oil shock for the global economy.

Finally, Matt and Neil look ahead to the weekend, including the London Marathon, the Women’s Six Nations, the Premier League relegation battle, and this week’s long and short.

Key topics covered

•  The fifth anniversary of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead
•  UK inflation, retail sales, unemployment, and political volatility 
•  What to expect from the Bank of England 
•  Global central bank meetings, including the Bank of Japan, ECB, Bank of Canada, and Fed 
•  The impact of higher oil prices on inflation and growth 
•  US consumer confidence, Q1 GDP, and ISM manufacturing 
•  Major technology earnings from Google, Meta, Microsoft, Qualcomm, and Apple 
•  The London Marathon, Women’s Six Nations, and Premier League football

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

In this episode of The Long and Short of the Week Ahead, Matt Jones is joined by Neil Staines to discuss the key macro themes shaping markets in the days ahead.

They begin with the UK, where weaker growth forecasts, fiscal pressure, and stagflation concerns continue to weigh on the outlook. From there, the conversation turns to Europe, where the debate centres on how policymakers should respond to the energy shock and what that could mean for ECB rate expectations.

Neil also looks across the global landscape, highlighting upcoming PMI data, German sentiment surveys, and central bank decisions from several major emerging markets. In the US, attention shifts to retail sales, earnings season, and the confirmation hearing for Fed Chair nominee Kevin Warsh, which could prove important for market expectations around rates, risk assets, and the dollar.

The episode closes, as ever, with a lighter look at the sporting weekend ahead.

In this episode:

•  Why the UK outlook remains under pressure 
•  What the energy shock means for Europe and ECB pricing 
•  The global importance of flash PMIs and central bank decisions 
•  Why next week’s US policy focus may matter more than the data 
•  Neil’s long and short for the weekend ahead 

Recorded for professional investors. Views were accurate at the time of recording.

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead after a volatile week for central banks and markets amid uncertainty around the Iran situation. In the UK, the Bank of England held rates, struck a more hawkish tone with a 9–0 vote, and stressed inflation risks from elevated energy prices, though growth vulnerability and rising unemployment risks keep a high bar for hikes and support an ultimately needed, delayed rate-cut path; upcoming UK CPI and retail sales are key. Globally, the ECB, SNB, Riksbank, and Bank of Canada also held rates while balancing upside inflation and downside growth risks; the Bank of Japan stayed on a hawkish path; and the RBA hiked to 4.1%. Next week features global flash PMIs, Aussie CPI, German IFO, and ECB commentary. In the US, the Fed held rates with mildly dovish projections but a hawkish press conference; attention turns to Trump, risk assets, oil, Treasuries, and eased big-bank capital requirements.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 UK Outlook BoE
02:36 Global Central Banks
04:32 Week Ahead Data
05:23 US After FOMC
07:28 Weekend Sports Talk
08:15 Long And Short Picks
08:30 Wrap Up And Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a complex global macro backdrop dominated by the Iran conflict’s impact on oil, inflation expectations, yields, equities, and growth, with market focus shifting to a heavy week of central bank meetings. In the UK, weak sales, house prices, and a softer January GDP print reinforce growth concerns; despite markets repricing toward possible Bank of England hikes, Staines sees a high bar given weakening growth and reduced fiscal space, though statement language will be closely parsed. Elsewhere, the RBA is expected to bring forward a 25bp hike, while the Bank of Canada, SNB, Riksbank, and ECB are broadly expected to hold rates amid differing inflation and growth dynamics. The Fed is seen as most consequential, with unchanged rates expected but close attention on updated projections and dots amid a weaker revised Q4 GDP and ongoing geopolitical risks.

00:00 Welcome and Setup
00:27 UK Outlook and BoE Watch
02:24 Global Central Bank Roundup
05:19 Fed Focus and US Data
07:19 Weekend Watchlist Sports
08:32 Long and Short Picks
08:52 Wrap Up and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss the macro themes for the week ahead against major uncertainty from the Middle East conflict, noting it is likely to dominate sentiment and positioning while they limit forecasts to the macroeconomy. In the UK, the Spring Statement brought no policy change but updated OBR projections: 2026 growth cut to 1.1% (from 1.4%), peak unemployment lifted to 5.3% (from 4.9%), and inflation lowered to 2.3%. The fiscal outlook also improved via higher projected revenues and lower debt funding costs due to a lower yield curve, though they remain skeptical given January tax effects and the sensitivity of public finances to moves in rates following developments around Iran. January UK GDP is the key domestic release. Globally, with the BoE and ECB entering blackout periods ahead of meetings on the 19th (and the FOMC ahead of the 18th), focus includes Eurozone investor confidence and industrial production, Isabel Schnabel’s remarks, China’s CPI/PPI amid limited domestic-demand messaging from Two Sessions, and inflation releases across several EMs alongside Hungary minutes and a Turkey rate decision. In the US, February CPI, the trade balance, PCE, and JOLTS are key, with oil’s impact on inflation and expectations central.

00:00 Show Intro
00:27 Middle East Backdrop
01:12 UK Spring Statement
02:27 UK GDP Watch
02:50 Global Data Radar
03:14 Europe And Energy
03:41 China Inflation Focus
04:48 US CPI And Oil
06:41 Weekend Sports Picks
07:29 Long And Short Signoff
07:57 Closing Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss a global macro backdrop where markets appear calm at the headline level but show significant divergence underneath, including record-high equity dispersion, private credit uncertainty despite tight spreads, and varied European inflation and growth dynamics alongside flat ECB rate expectations. They preview a busier week of data: Australia’s inflation gauge, GDP and trade (watched for expectations of one more RBA hike); Europe’s February CPI, unemployment, retail sales, and final manufacturing and services PMIs; and China’s “Two Sessions,” including growth targets and the 15th five-year plan. They also flag CPI releases across multiple emerging markets. In the US, focus is on ISM manufacturing and services, the Beige Book, ADP, and Friday payrolls, where a surprise could have an outsized market impact.

00:00 Welcome and Introductions
00:27 Calm Markets Hidden Divergence
02:14 Key Global Data Week Ahead
03:48 US Data and Payrolls Focus
05:25 Weekend Watch Sports Picks
06:14 Long and Short Takeaways
06:33 Closing and Disclosures

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication. 

 Matt Jones and Neil Staines discuss macro themes for the week ahead for professional investors. In the UK, recent data show unemployment at a new cycle high of 5.2% (above COVID highs), conflicting private vs public pay trends, and CPI signals of underlying weakness as administered prices drop out of annual comparisons; inflation is expected to return to target by mid-year, and UK 10-year yields are ~25 bps lower over two weeks. Next week’s UK watchpoints include consumer confidence and comments from MPC members at both dovish and hawkish ends, as markets debate whether the next rate cut is in March or April; Eurizon SLJ expects sooner and faster cuts than the MPC/market. In Australia, RBA minutes were non-committal but hawkish amid wages and high unit labour costs; January CPI next week will be key for assessing hike urgency. Other global items include Germany’s February CPI and retail sales, Japan’s retail sales and industrial production plus fiscal-plan commentary, multiple employment reports (Poland, Mexico, Turkey, Hungary, Colombia), a South Korean central bank rate decision, and South Africa’s budget. In the US, FOMC minutes suggest a shift away from labour-market risks back toward inflation risks as growth stays robust; geopolitical risks (including the Iran standoff) and higher oil prices, AI capex monetisation concerns, software brokerage disruption, private credit contagion worries, and NVIDIA earnings are highlighted amid a light data calendar, with volatility still viewed as cheap. 

00:00 Welcome & What to Watch in the Week Ahead
00:27 UK Macro Update: Jobs, Inflation, Yields & BoE Cut Timing
02:22 Australia in Focus: RBA Minutes, Wages & Next Week’s CPI
03:18 Global Roundup: Europe, Japan, EM Data & Key Central Bank Events
04:01 US Outlook: FOMC Tone Shift, Geopolitics, AI/Earnings & Volatility
05:35 Weekend Sports Preview: Football, Curling, Cricket & Six Nations
07:00 Closing Thanks & Important Disclaimers

The opinions expressed in this podcast are those of the presenters and do not necessarily reflect the views of Eurizon SLJ Capital, Eurizon Capital, or the Intesa Sanpaolo Group. The information and opinions shared are intended solely for professional investors and should not be relied upon by other investors. Please note that the information provided in this recording is for informational purposes only and is not intended to be complete or constitute an offer to buy or sell securities or any derivatives. It has not been prepared in accordance with legal and regulatory requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research and is not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of the dissemination of investment research. It does not constitute research on investment matters and should not be construed as containing any recommendation, advice or suggestion, implicit or explicit, for any investment strategy or financial instruments, the issuers of any financial instruments, or a solicitation, offer or financial promotion relating to any securities or investments. ESLJ and its affiliates do not assume any liability whatsoever for the contents of this podcast and do not make any representation or warranty as to the accuracy or completeness of any information contained in this communication.