John Arnold is a colleague of mine at Ten31, we are five man team focused on investing in and supporting the best bitcoin businesses globally. This is our third quarterly update where we cover current market dynamics and our outlook.

More info on Ten31: https://www.ten31.xyz

Quantum: https://www.ten31.xyz/insights/quantum-computing-bitcoin-security

Note: AnchorWatch does not use taproot. I was mistaken.

John on Nostr: https://primal.net/john
John on X: https://x.com/JohnArnoldTen31
Ten31 on X: https://x.com/ten31funds

EPISODE: 186
BLOCK: 927606
PRICE: 1108 sats per dollar

(00:07:01) Four Year Cycles: Liquidity vs. halving

(00:12:21) Market manipulation?

(00:13:53) Day vs. night: IBIT hours, ETFs, stay humble and stack sats

(00:16:40) Premarket/postmarket liquidity and trading

(00:16:47) Quantum: FUD Rising

(00:24:03) Address types at risk: P2PK, P2PKH race, Taproot exposure

(00:25:11) Practical mitigations

(00:27:28) Long-range vs. short-range quantum attacks and feasibility

(00:28:40) Reality check: scaling physical QC and secrecy constraints

(00:31:01) Coordination and upgrade paths: post-quantum options

(00:33:30) Social contract: no seizure of old coins

(00:36:25) Did quantum FUD drive the drawdown?

(00:40:00) Why gold and silver are at highs while Bitcoin lags

(00:51:06) Mega-cap tech as the new savings account and TINA

(00:57:36) Fed cuts, QT ends, QE or not semantics, and Bitcoins response

(01:07:00) Looking ahead: more cuts, policy path, and 2026 setup

(01:13:01) Giga-bullish case: scarce assets vs. fiscal-monetary impulse

(01:16:03) Gold vs. Bitcoin for individuals and sovereigns

(01:20:02) Counterparty risk with ETFs and the case for self-custody

(01:26:12) Bottom in? Price targets, humility, and risk management

(01:30:29) USD tokens (stablecoins): growth, limits, and policy aims

(01:35:04) Tethers dominance, gold tokens, and a silver tangent

(01:41:03) Closing thoughts: on-chain flows, whos buying, and sign-off

Rob is the creator of Kyoto, an implementation of compact block filters that makes it easier for developers to build more private bitcoin wallets. Andreas is the creator of Bitcoin Safe, an app designed to make it easier to use hardware wallets securely.

Andreas on Nostr: https://primal.net/p/nprofile1qqsqd0y6klqxew4glwggn63jvumrgprnl32tw7hpuzfhv6msgf7y3agm756qu
Bitcoin Safe on Nostr: https://primal.net/p/nprofile1qqsyz7tjgwuarktk88qvlnkzue3ja52c3e64s7pcdwj52egphdfll0cq9934g
Bitcoin Safe on X: https://x.com/BitcoinSafeOrg
Kyoto on Github: https://github.com/rustaceanrob/kyoto
2140: https://2140.dev

EPISODE: 185
BLOCK: 926163
PRICE: 1099 sats per dollar

(00:03:04) Bitcoin Dev Kit

(00:04:39) Andreas (Bitcoin Safe) and Rob (Kyoto)

(00:05:58) What is BDK? Goals, safety, and language bindings

(00:09:27) Why BDK matters for UX, testing, and reliability

(00:09:50) Kyoto origin story and compact block filters vision

(00:13:21) Privacy model: servers vs. compact block filters

(00:19:39) Do compact block filters work on mobile? Performance tradeoffs

(00:23:55) Kyoto as a Rust reference client for BIP157/158

(00:24:35) Bitcoin Safe overview: desktop cold storage with hardware signers

(00:25:40) Using compact block filters in Bitcoin Safe: initial sync vs. daily speed

(00:28:27) Why connect your own node and peer pools for CBF

(00:33:14) Design choice: hardware-only wallets and setup wizard

(00:36:29) Differentiating from Sparrow: private sync and Nostr-based multisig coordination

(00:39:08) Will Sparrow adopt compact block filters? Considerations and UX

(00:48:49) Developer ecosystems: 2140, OpenSats, and in-person collaboration

(00:50:38) Making CBF the default: UX, education, and recovery flow

(00:52:56) Electrum server defaults and operational notes

(00:53:50) Birth heights, segwit/taproot start points, and future optimizations

(00:56:17) Address reuse, scanning guarantees, and performance benchmarks

(01:00:13) Bandwidth vs. compute: where the real bottlenecks are

(01:00:19) Closing discussion, calls to action, and advice for new devs

Calle is the creator and lead maintainer of the Cashu open source protocol. Cashu enables users to easily use bitcoin in a private, offline, and programmable way. Calle is also the maintainer of Bitchat android, a cross platform meshnet app that enables users to chat and send bitcoin without an internet connection.

Calle on Nostr: https://primal.net/calle
Calle on X: https://x.com/callebtc
Bitchat: https://bitchat.free/
Cashu: https://cashu.space/
Hackathon: https://nutnovember.org/
AOS: https://andotherstuff.org/

EPISODE: 184
BLOCK: 925030
PRICE: 1126 sats per dollar

(00:04:44) Bitchat: Bluetooth Mesh Without Internet

(00:06:21) Protests and Outages Drive Downloads: Nepal, Indonesia, Madagascar, Côte d’Ivoire, Jamaica

(00:09:51) Predicting Unrest from Download Spikes

(00:14:27) Adding Nostr Transport: Hyperlocal Mesh vs. Geohash Chats

(00:18:03) Geolocated Relay Selection

(00:23:56) Ephemeral Identity, UX, and Censorship Considerations

(00:28:37) Mesh Upgrades: Voice, Images, Files, Source Routing like Tor

(00:30:23) WiFi Aware Mesh and Background Operation to Boost Range and Uptime

(00:34:15) White Noise vs. Bitchat

(00:40:00) Protocols and Transports: Weaving White Noise, Cashu, and Bitchat

(00:43:48) Transport Neutral Design: Cashu and Nostr

(00:45:57) Cashu Progress: Shipping Libraries, Dev Ecosystem Growth

(00:51:18) We Need More Bitcoin Devs

(00:53:08) Integrating Cashu into BitChat: Wallet UX and Local Payments

(00:57:17) Running Mints: Spark, Ark, and Proof of Reserves/Liabilities

(01:03:40) Layered Scaling Without Consensus Changes: Ark, Spark, Cashu

(01:04:18) Bitcoin for Signal: Replacing MobileCoin with Cashu

(01:13:32) Why Cashu for Signal? Privacy and Scaling

(01:22:31) Mint Choice vs. Simplicity: Defaults, Lightning Interoperability, and UX

(01:32:21) Focus on Financial Privacy for the Masses, not Distractions

(01:37:11) Zcash Hype Dismissed; Call to Build on Bitcoin

(01:39:26) Nut November Hackathon and How to Contribute to Bitchat and Cashu

(01:45:06) Happy Thanksgiving

NVK is CoFounder of Coinkite, the makers of Coldcard. Coldcards are designed to help users securely use bitcoin offline. We discuss the variety of features that Coldcards provide users and the tradeoffs present when choosing how to best secure bitcoin.

Disclosure: Ten31 is the exclusive investor in Coinkite.

my easy coldcard guide: https://werunbtc.com/coldcard

NVK on Nostr: https://primal.net/nvk
NVK on X: https://x.com/nvk
Coinkite:  https://coinkite.com/

Ten31: https://www.ten31.xyz/
Cove Wallet: https://covebitcoinwallet.com/
Sparrow Wallet: https://sparrowwallet.com/
Bull Wallet: https://wallet.bullbitcoin.com/
White Noise: https://www.whitenoise.chat/
Bitkey: https://bitkey.world/

EPISODE: 183
BLOCK: 923180
PRICE:  967 sats per dollar

(00:03:36) Whats New at Coinkite and the Growing User Base

(00:05:24) Designing for Global Users and Changing Threat Models

(00:06:36) Power vs. Simplicity

(00:08:44) Onboarding Stories

(00:09:56) Mobile vs Desktop Habits and Emerging Wallets

(00:14:28) QR Workflows, NFC Push-tx, and SD Card Signing

(00:15:32) Travel and Borders

(00:17:04) Key Teleport: Device to Device Encrypted Sharing

(00:22:38) Spending Policies

(00:25:02) Trick PINs, Duress Flows, and Safe Inspired Defenses

(00:29:02) Border Stories and Why Brick Me PIN Exists

(00:31:05) SeedXOR vs Passphrase vs Multisig

(00:34:07) Family Planning and Inheritance Strategies

(00:40:00) Physical Security Model: Dual SE + MCU

(00:43:37) Comparisons to Trezor Designs and Components

(00:49:44) Seeds as Sovereignty and Unilateral Exit

(00:53:21) Debate: iCloud Backups, Ease vs Sovereignty

(01:00:08) Bitkey Debate: Goals, Risks, and Break Glass Exit

(01:08:54) Edge Cases, Loss Scenarios, and Marketing Ethics

(01:20:05) Coinkite Roadmap

(01:22:23) Future Products

(01:28:01) Touchscreens, Supply Chain Risk, and PWAs

(01:30:31) Cove, White Noise MLS, and AI Bots

(01:32:26) Nostr Adoption, Socials, and Moderation

(01:41:36) Wrap Up, Gratitude, and Ways to Support

Alex is Head of Ecosystem at Ark Labs. We discuss their new bitcoin protocol: Arkade. It can be used with the lightning network to make self custody bitcoin usage more powerful and accessible. This rip was in person, in Lugano. We are both here for the PlanB Forum.

Alex B on Nostr: https://primal.net/alexb
Alex B on X: https://x.com/bergealex4
Ark Labs: https://arklabs.xyz/
PlanB Forum: https://planb.lugano.ch/planb-forum/

EPISODE: 182
BLOCK: 920390
PRICE:  915 sats per dollar

(00:00:35) Arkade Activation Day in Lugano

(00:03:11) What is Ark? Positioning vs. Lightning and L2s

(00:04:32) Ark fundamentals: batching, VTXOs, and two-of-two with an operator

(00:08:38) Double-spend risks and the operator trust model

(00:10:24) Settling vs. zero conf: anchoring batches onchain

(00:16:04) Beyond cheap payments: programmable offchain Bitcoin

(00:18:12) Ark Lightning swaps and unilateral exits

(00:21:01) Unilateral exit costs, trees of transactions, and anchoring cadence

(00:26:17) Wallet UX: automating settlement and exposure management

(00:27:22) Ark vs. Spark: security model and settlement feedback to L1

(00:34:39) Onchain demand: Lightning realities, Spark cadence, Ark batches

(00:36:59) Ark is tech, Arkade is implementation

(00:37:45) Batch frequency and scaling: hundreds per batch, Taproot efficiency

(00:38:41) Covenants soft fork would cut interactivity overhead

(00:42:01) Users, servers, and always on clients: who runs what?

(00:45:02) DeFi on Arkade: loans, new opcodes, and secondary markets

(00:47:00) Credit, derivatives, and Bitcoinization

(00:55:06) Company model: Ark Labs, open source Arkade, and revenue

(01:01:02) Flagship apps strategy: neo-bank, swaps, prediction markets

(01:07:05) Try it today: arkade.money PWA and roadmap to native apps

(01:12:05) Operators landscape: competition, network effects, resilience

(01:15:27) Closing thoughts: adapt, focus, and take the white pill

Francis is the Founder of Bull Bitcoin, one of the best bitcoin brokerage services. They recently launched a self custody mobile wallet on ios and android: Bull Wallet. This rip was earlier today, in person, in Lugano. We are both here for the PlanB Forum.

Francis on Nostr: https://primal.net/francis
Francis on X: https://x.com/francispouliot_
Bull Wallet: https://wallet.bullbitcoin.com
PlanB Forum: https://planb.lugano.ch/planb-forum/

EPISODE: 181
BLOCK: 920238
PRICE: 929 sats per dollar

(00:00:00) Catching up from Lugano: old rips, 2019 memories, and lore

(00:01:07) Introducing Bull Wallet: goals, BDK under the hood, and UX vision

(00:02:21) Lightning lessons: LDK attempts, liquidity pain, and Phoenix tradeoffs

(00:04:38) Fee shocks and “just-in-time” channels: why Liquid entered the plan

(00:06:24) Liquid + Boltz atomic swaps: architecture, Rootstock notes, and standards push

(00:07:37) Designing for privacy and power users: Sparrow on mobile, Payjoin journey

(00:12:21) Data minimization in practice: no push, no cloud leaks, strict dependencies

(00:13:56) Shipping realities: iOS approval grind and cross‑platform necessity

(00:15:11) Secure versus Instant: Liquid framing, hype cycles, and collaborative custody

(00:19:13) The UX–compromise matrix: placing Liquid among trust models

(00:21:24) Auto‑swap safety rails: keeping Liquid balances modest by default

(00:24:26) Confidential transactions and buying flows: privacy wins via Liquid

(00:27:24) Swap providers and resilience: Boltz today, multi‑provider tomorrow

(00:31:05) Builders who ship: moving fast, potentially Ark or Spark in the future

(00:32:11) Why Ark: unilateral exits, pre‑confirmed states, and costs

(00:50:00) Ark tradeoffs without soft forks: watchtowers, refresh, and liveness

(00:57:15) Ark vs Liquid in Bull Wallet: timelines, reckless testing, and user defaults

(01:04:12) Payjoin, heuristics, and passive consolidation

(01:11:01) Consolidation strategies: Liquid swaps, CT, and fee‑aware UTXO management

(01:15:48) Lightning address UX with Liquid: directories, costs, and tiny payments

(01:17:10) Nostr as a wallet backend: zaps, contact book, and secure comms

(01:18:01) Multisig in practice: BitPay’s UX, Miniscript future, and mobile approvals

(01:20:19) Operator messaging and alerts: following npubs inside the app

(01:20:49) Core v30, OP_RETURN, and policy vs consensus

(01:31:09) Funding open source: OpenSats, private companies, and shipping culture

(01:35:15) Why open source keeps us sane: creativity, legacy, and closing notes

My keynote presentation at the Imagine If conference in Nashville focused on how i think about scaling freedom tech.

Date: September 20, 2025

OpenSats: https://opensats.org
Ten31: https://ten31.xyz
Imagine If: https://bitcoinpark.com/imagineif

(01:02) ODELL takes the stage

(01:23) Diagnosing the problem

(02:35) Ad driven surveillance and addictive platforms

(03:04) Open source and open protocols

(03:49) Scaling open source: incentives and funding

(04:26) OpenSats and Bitcoin powered grants

(05:25) Email, an open protocol, and Gmails predatory model

(06:42) Make freedom profitable: align incentives

(06:54) Ten31 thesis: sustainable, user-aligned businesses

(07:28) Case study: Start9 and self-hosted services

(08:16) Case study: Maples private AI and open API

(08:51) Case study: Primal on Nostr and Bitcoin

(09:37) Case study: Strike and low switching costs

(10:25) Closing call to action: profit drives scalability

A conversation with Adam Back at Bitcoin Park's Custody and Treasury Summit in Nashville, TN. We discuss the current state of bitcoin custody and how it applies to individuals, small businesses, and public companies.

Date: September 18, 2025

Adam on Nostr: https://primal.net/adamback
Adam on X: https://x.com/adam3us
Bitcoin Park on Nostr: https://primal.net/park
Bitcoin Park: https://bitcoinpark.com/

(00:00) Teaser

(01:07) Not your keys, not your coins

(01:49) Why self custody matters: seizure and asset protection

(03:06) Early Bitcoin legal fears and Obama’s Swiss bank quote

(03:54) Individuals adopt self custody; shift to business treasuries

(04:22) Custody advice for small businesses and dentists

(05:34) Multisig basics, redundancy, and vendor diversity

(06:45) Single sig vs multi sig usability and learning curve

(07:32) Practical setups: single sig cold storage and backups

(08:24) Keeping multiple backups

(09:06) Fireproof steel backups and moving to treasury topics

(09:30) Public companies using custodians: risks and drivers

(10:48) Collaborative custody among custodians and decaying multisig

(12:10) Balancing third party risk vs operational self custody risk

(12:43) Finality, time locks, and covenant based safety nets

(13:59) Why multisig is essential for large organizations

(14:56) Industry pushback and the case for proof of reserves

(16:20) Adoption of proof of reserves and hybrid treasury strategies

(16:51) Closing and audience Q&A intro

Miljan is the Founder and CEO of Primal. Bitcoin is an open protocol for money, nostr is an open protocol for speech, Primal brings the power of both into an easy to use interface for everyone.

Search Primal in your favorite app store!

Miljan on Nostr: https://primal.net/miljan

EPISODE: 180
BLOCK: 917284
PRICE: 842 sats per dollar

(00:00) Ten31 retreat

(01:02) Retreat impressions and collaboration

(01:32) How many bitcoiners

(03:01) Estimating self custody users and real audience sizes

(05:09) Stalled growth and focusing Primal on Bitcoiners

(06:07) Curated "Getting Started" invite packs

(09:14) Solving empty feeds: recommendations vs. decentralization

(12:02) Improving follow discovery

(14:53) Retention over onboarding: first-touch UX matters

(16:11) Empowering users with tools, not surveillance models

(18:08) Aligning incentives: Primal’s user-paid model

(19:42) Live streaming on Nostr: open spec meets clean UI

(22:20) Not competing with TikTok: high-signal over dopamine

(25:06) Platform risk for streamers and Nostr’s modular freedom

(28:05) Unified chat, zaps, and the magic of interoperable apps

(29:25) Nostr’s organic growth

(31:06) Creators’ final destination

(34:50) AI in social: open models, features, and roadmap thoughts

(41:05) Deepfakes, authenticity, and signed content value

(46:02) Keys, key-rotation, and building resilient identity tools

(49:28) Practical key management: tradeoffs from phone to multisig

(53:12) Closing thoughts

Seth is VP of Cake Wallet, a self custody bitcoin wallet available on ios, android, and desktop. We discuss their new offline companion app, Cupcake, and variety of other privacy related topics.

Seth on Nostr: https://primal.net/sethforprivacy
Seth on X: https://x.com/sethforprivacy
Cake Wallet: https://cakewallet.com/

EPISODE: 179
BLOCK: 916494
PRICE: 909 sats per dollar

(00:00:01) UK Digital ID Dystopia

(00:01:02) Happy Bitcoin Friday

(00:03:01) Samourai arrests fallout and Ashigaru vs Wasabi vs JoinMarket

(00:06:49) Coordinator trust, liquidity, and taint/frozen funds

(00:12:10) Cake Wallet updates and unveiling Cupcake signer

(00:15:36) How Cupcake works: air-gapped signer, BCUR/BBQR, threat models

(00:19:01) Travel, opsec, and device choices for Cupcake

(00:21:30) Cupcake’s scope vs hardware wallets

(00:25:21) Multisig discussions, open standards, and future features

(00:29:43) Single sig and practical custody advice

(00:30:29) Recent Monero Attack

(00:36:21) ASIC resistance debate and Monero reorg analysis

(00:41:02) Wild idea: switch Monero to Litecoin’s Scrypt ASICs

(00:43:19) Lightning in Cake Wallet: evaluating Ark vs Spark

(00:49:37) Spark’s pragmatism, privacy concerns, and operators

(00:56:40) Strike/Primal, Cashu, and custodial vs self-custodial tradeoffs

(00:58:56) Hands-on with Spark in Wallet of Satoshi beta

(01:05:02) Bitcoin privacy outlook: Silent Payments, PayJoin, Lightning

(01:06:14) Silent Payments UX: Frigate server model and performance

(01:09:17) Run your own node for privacy and practical setups

(01:09:51) Closing reflections: builders vs discourse, optimism

A conversation with Shawn Yeager and Derek Ross at the Imagine If conference in Nashville, TN. We discuss the current state of digital communications and identity with a specific focus on nostr.

Date: September 20, 2025

Shawn on Nostr: https://primal.net/shawn
Derek on Nostr: https://primal.net/derekross
Bitcoin Park on Nostr: https://primal.net/park
Imagine If: https://bitcoinpark.com/imagineif

(00:40) Future of digital comms, identity, social

(01:41) Diagnosing the problems: incentives, KYC, and broken trust

(03:05) Censorship, shadow bans, and owning your social graph

(05:00) AI, deepfakes, and can we trust what we see?

(07:24) Algorithmic control vs user choice

(10:10) Introducing Nostr: open protocol, healthier engagement

(11:54) Digital health, doomscrolling, and parenting challenges

(15:21) Youth safety on open protocols: responsibilities and tools

(18:22) Give parents the tools: OS-level controls and UX

(19:35) Getting started with Nostr: keys, Primal, and UX spectrum

(21:17) Vibe-coding apps: Soapbox/Shakespeare on Nostr + Bitcoin

(22:39) Permissionless payments and AI-built sites