Donald Trump says Iran must choose between signing a deal or facing fresh US strikes - but despite the threats, no attacks have come. So is this another case of “TACO Trump”, or are we actually watching the outlines of a peace deal emerge behind the scenes?

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and Mark Urban examine rising oil prices, shifting sanctions policy, and growing pressure from Gulf states desperate to avoid another escalation in the Strait of Hormuz.

They discuss whether the US and UK are quietly easing pressure on Russian oil as energy markets tighten, what could happen to Iran’s uranium stockpile under a deal, and whether Trump and Netanyahu are still truly aligned as tensions grow over Israel’s conduct and strategy.

How bad is the economic hit from the Iran war going to be? If the talk around price caps on essential food items, and lifting sanctions on Russian oil and gas are anything to go by, then it could be very bad indeed. 

The government says any price freeze will be voluntary after supermarket bosses called the idea ‘preposterous’ and ‘nonsense.’ But plans to continue to allow diesel and jet fuel to be imported into the UK from Russian oil refined in other countries will go ahead. The Conservatives call this a ‘betrayal of Ukraine.’ 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Jackie Long is joined by Channel 4 News' Economics Reporter Neil Macdonald, the economist Vicky Pryce and Tom Keatinge, the founding director at the Centre for Finance and Security at the think tank RUSI.

The World Health Organization has declared the latest Ebola outbreak an international emergency, as cases continue to rise in the Democratic Republic of Congo and neighbouring Uganda - including infections reported in the capital, Kampala.

The current outbreak is being driven by the Bundibugyo strain of Ebola, for which there are currently no approved vaccines or treatments. Fears are growing that this could escalate into a crisis on the scale of the devastating 2014 West Africa outbreak, which killed more than 11,000 people.

In this episode of The Fourcast, we ask how serious the threat really is, whether the world is better prepared than it was a decade ago, and what lessons were learned from previous epidemics. Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News health editor Victoria MacDonald and Dr Oliver Johnson, who led an Ebola isolation unit in Sierra Leone during the 2014 outbreak.

What has Donald Trump got out of his two day trip to Beijing? There are some roses from the Chinese President Xi Jinping for the White House Rose Garden apparently. But a trade deal? An end to the war in Iran? The Strait of Hormuz reopened? That all seemed rather more elusive. 

And what about Xi Jinping?  Did he get to show that China is now America's equal on the global stage? Access to US tech and AI? Could he even have got the nod from Trump that Taiwan - and its threatened democracy - is now no longer a priority for the US? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by Channel 4 News foreign affairs expert Jonathan Rugman, and Hong Kong democracy activist Nathan Law, now living in exile in the UK and on a Chinese wanted list.

A leaked Pentagon assessment claims China is using the Iran war to strengthen its position against the United States economically, militarily and diplomatically, US media is reporting. 

Donald Trump is in Beijing for a summit with Xi Jinping, where the Chinese ruler has been warned that if the Taiwan issue is not handled carefully it could lead to a conflict between the super powers. 

On this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by China expert and contributing editor at the Times Cindy Yu to dissect it all.

The battle for Number 10 is on.

After Angela Rayner announced HMRC had cleared her over the tax scandal that led to her resignation, attention quickly shifted to the growing leadership turmoil inside Labour. Following days of speculation, Wes Streeting announced his resignation from government but - so far - hasn’t challenged  Keir Starmer for the leadership

In this episode of The Fourcast, we examine the names circling the leadership race - from Andy Burnham and Ed Miliband to junior ministers preparing potential bids - and ask whether Labour is heading for a brutal internal war just as it tries to convince voters it’s ready for power.

Joining Krishnan Guru-Murthy are Senior Political Correspondent Paul Macnamara and Think Labour’s Alison Phillips to discuss who’s really plotting, who has momentum, and whether Starmer can survive the biggest challenge of his leadership so far.

Recorded before Andy Burnham announced he would stand in Makerfield.

It’s another febrile day in Westminster with Prime Minister Keir Starmer - for now - clinging on but he's far from safe as a succession of ministers have stepped down, with more expected to go. 

On top of that, the man who has become the PM's nemesis in the north, Andy Burnham, is apparently down in London. Shopping? Plotting? 

So it looks like Keir Starmer might just hit the current average tenure of British Prime Ministers - two years, but no more. Is this really the way to run a country in the middle of two wars and a cost-of-living crisis? And could anyone else really do any better? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by the Liverpool Echo's Political Editor Liam Thorp, who has co-authored a book with Andy Burnham on how to transform the country, and the Observer columnist Will Hutton.

Keir Starmer survives the day -  but the pressure on his leadership is growing. Today, he attempted to shore up his position with a speech focused on his vision for Labour, saying his government must go beyond “incremental change” and be the party of a “stronger and fairer” Britain. But despite this, at least 55 Labour MPs have called on Starmer to set out a timetable for a leadership election to take place.

And inside Labour, the conversation has already moved on to who would replace him and two names dominate - Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting. Burnham says he should never have been blocked from returning to Westminster, and Streeting is openly being discussed as a potential frontrunner. 

So with the party leadership in flux and the future of the Labour party once again up for debate - what happens now? In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Starmer biographer Tom Baldwin and Guardian columnist Zoe Williams about what today’s turmoil really means. Is Labour heading for a delayed but inevitable leadership contest, a Burnham ‘coronation’, or a messy fight over the party’s future?

Labour is reeling after bruising local election results - losing ground to the Greens on the left and Reform UK on the right - and questions are now swirling around Keir Starmer’s leadership. Is this just a difficult moment for Labour, or the start of something much bigger?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by former Shadow Chancellor John McDonnell, former Keir Starmer Chief of Staff Sam White, and political strategist Scarlett Maguire to unpack what the results really mean. Is Labour facing a voter backlash, a messaging problem, or a full-blown leadership crisis?

And if pressure on Starmer continues to grow, what happens next? Could Labour really replace its leader - and who would even take over?

As Gulf leaders look to Beijing for guarantees Washington no longer seems able to give, China is suddenly at the centre of diplomacy around the Strait of Hormuz. The UAE’s Mohammed bin Zayed and Iran’s foreign minister both arrived in Beijing within days of each other, seeking a way out of a blockade that has choked shipping routes, pushed tankers around the Cape of Good Hope, and rattled global markets.

So where does this leave Donald Trump’s efforts to revive a deal that could reopen the Strait, and what does the collapse of Project Freedom reveal about America’s standing with its allies in the Gulf and Europe?

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei and Mark Urban are joined by former Senior Director at the US National Security Council during Donald Trump’s first administration Fiona Hill to examine China’s growing leverage over Iran, the Gulf states’ deepening unease with Washington, and the diplomatic pressure building ahead of the delayed Trump-Xi summit.

It’s the dirty secret at the heart of England’s waterways. The water companies publicly insist they are cleaning up their act, but privately they have been allowed to avoid prosecution for years through a little-known mechanism which lets a company admit fault and pay money to a good cause instead of facing criminal charges. 

The Environment Agency says the payments are a “brilliant tool”, faster and simpler than taking a case through a lengthy court process. But Channel 4 News has uncovered how these payments have been used repeatedly by water companies accused of polluting rivers, allowing them to sidestep court, scrutiny, and conviction. Our investigation has also found that the Environment Agency has not completed a single prosecution of a water company for any pollution occurring in the last five years, despite almost two million sewage discharges. 

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Chief Correspondent Alex Thomson, who has been looking into this story, campaigner Fergal Sharkey, and whistleblower Robert Forrester, who has firsthand experience of how these cases are handled inside the system.