Donald Trump’s ceasefire with Iran appears to be holding - or is it? Iran has reportedly seized two ships in the Strait of Hormuz as America attacks tankers and boats linked to Tehran - and then there doesn’t appear to be any hint of any imminent peace talks 

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Krishnan Guru-Murthy and defence analyst Mark Urban discuss whether the Iran war has reached a stalemate and ask, with China watching, has this all fatally undermined US power on the world stage?

They were also joined by economist Ann Pettifor who says a “global slump” is now inevitable - so how bad will it be?

Peter Mandelson's appointment as ambassador by Sir Keir Starmer to the US was a rush-job, carried out under an 'atmosphere of pressure' from 10 Downing Street and a 'dismissive attitude' to security vetting. 

That's the claim of Sir Olly Robbins, the sacked head of the foreign office as he was grilled by parliament's foreign affairs committee. 

So, is it now clear what happened behind the scenes? 

No 10 denies Robbins’ characterisation of events, but could this still be damning for Starmer's premiership or has the PM's decision to sack his senior mandarin been vindicated?

On this episode of the Fourcast, Paul McNamara was joined by Labour MP Preet Kour Gill and also by one of Olly Robbins predecessors as head of the foreign office Lord Ricketts and former Labour advisor and political commentator Sonia Sodha.

In a world facing overlapping crises - from Sudan, to Lebanon to the wider issues in the Middle East - the demand for humanitarian aid has never been greater. But as needs grow, the global response is struggling to keep up.

In this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy speaks to Tom Fletcher, the United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, about the immense challenges of delivering life-saving support in today’s fractured world. How does the UN prioritise when everything is urgent?

With funding shortfalls, political barriers, and growing risks to civilians and aid workers, can the humanitarian system cope - and what happens if it can’t?

Peter Mandelson, the problem that won’t go away. Keir Starmer is once again fighting to save his political career, after saying he was not told Mandelson had failed security vetting ahead of his appointment as US ambassador.

So what really happened? Is this a failure of leadership or does it point to a deeper rot inside Westminster? And either way, can Starmer survive it? 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined by Guardian columnist Polly Toynbee and Conservative MP Alicia Kearns, former chair of the Foreign Affairs Select Committee. 

A Downing Street spokesman told Channel 4 News: “The Foreign Office have run this vetting process, and at no point, at any point in any part of this process was anyone in Number 10, PM or otherwise, informed by the Foreign Office that the recommendation of UK Security Vetting was for him not to pass his developed vetting.”

The ceasefire between the US and Iran is holding - for now. But beneath the surface, the signals tell a more uncertain story.

In this episode of The Fourcast Indicators, Matt Frei is joined by defence analyst Mark Urban and International Editor Lindsey Hilsum to examine the key signs shaping what happens next. From US military build-up in the region to Iran’s strategic use of the Strait of Hormuz, the question is whether this fragile pause is the start of a settlement, or simply a prelude to further conflict.

They explore the shifting balance of power, the role of regional players like Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, and the growing pressure on Israel as the war’s dynamics evolve. There is also a deeper question at play: what this conflict reveals about the limits of American power, and the future of global trade routes.

Donald Trump’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has come into force, but ships are reportedly still getting through, including a Chinese linked tanker.

So, what is actually going on right now? How long could this blockade last and what happens if American forces try to seize a Chinese linked vessel? 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Alex Thomson is joined by retired US Rear Admiral Mark Montgomery and Times columnist and contributing editor Cindy Yu.

Hungary has woken up to a political earthquake. After more than a decade in power, Viktor Orbán has been defeated, with Péter Magyar securing a historic landslide victory in an election seen as a major test for democracy in Europe.

It’s a slap in the face for Donald Trump - after JD Vance called on Hungarians to support their incumbent leader. But did his attempt to raise support for Orban do the exact opposite?

Could this mark a turning point not just for Hungary, but for Europe more broadly? And does this result signal a shift away from populist politics - or is the bigger story still to come?

In this episode of The Fourcast, Matt Frei is joined by Hungarian journalist and disinformation expert Szilárd Teczár and political analyst Mujtaba Rahman to unpack how this happened - and what it means for the future of Hungary - and Europe.

What is really going on in Lebanon? Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran, Israel launched a massive wave of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah across the country.

Iran says Israel is violating the terms of the ceasefire - so could the peace talks set to be held tomorrow in Islamabad collapse before they’ve even started? And is this exactly what Israel wants? 

On this episode of the Fourcast, Krishnan Guru-Murthy was joined from Beirut by Lebanese journalist Rania Abouzeid and in London by Channel 4 News foreign correspondent Secunder Kermani, who’s just returned from Lebanon.

It’s uncertain whether the ceasefire Donald Trump brokered with Iran will hold after Israel launched a massive barrage of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon leading Tehran to reclose the Strait of Hormuz. 

US vice president JD Vance, who is leading the US delegation to Islamabad in Pakistan, has acknowledged that the ceasefire is “fragile”. 

So is there any chance it could lead to a last peace? Is this a moment where a global economic crisis was averted at the last minute, or just postponed? 

On this episode of the Fourcast Indicators Krishnan Guru-Murthy is joined by defence and intelligence analyst Mark Urban and Channel 4 News Economics Editor Helia Ebrahimi.

Wireless Festival has been cancelled, following the government’s decision to block Kanye West’s permission to travel to the UK.  

The American rapper, who’s now known as Ye, was due to headline the festival in Finsbury Park in the summer. 

He has a long history of antisemitic comments and actions, including writing a song glorifying Adolf Hitler. Mr West has blamed this on a brain injury and missed Bi-polar diagnosis. 

He has apologised and says he has reached out to the Jewish community in the UK. 

On this episode of The Fourcast, Keme Nzerem is joined by Dr. Toby Greene from the Board of Deputies of British Jews and music journalist Yemi Abiade.

NASA’s Artemis ll mission has blasted off to the moon - with the familiar rhetoric of exploration and human achievement. It’s the first crewed voyage out of low earth orbit in more than half a century - but behind the celebration - another story is taking shape.

The modern ‘space race’ is a high-stakes contest for military, economic and technological dominance here on earth. A contest where whoever controls orbit, controls everything below. 

So what does Artemis tell us about this contest? About the collision of scientific aspiration, strategic military rivalry, and economic leverage? 

How are the world’s governments, militaries and increasingly private companies shaping this orbital order? 

On the latest episode of The Fourcast, Keme Nzerem is joined by Libby Jackson, Head of Space at London’s Science Museum, formerly head of space exploration at the UK Space Agency.

And Gabriel Elefteriu, Senior Research Fellow in Space Power at the Council on Geostrategy. His work is on defence space policy, and the global space power balance.