Decoding the Gurus

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Decoding the Gurus

Christopher Kavanagh and Matthew Browne

A psychologist and an anthropologist try to make sense of the world's greatest self-declared Gurus.

37 minutes 16 seconds

Decoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked? (Patreon Series)
Ever heard of cognitive dissonance? That thing a psychology lecturer might have explained to you once upon a time, likely using the same UFO cult example everyone else uses. Well, a new paper by Thomas Kelly suggests that the UFO cult example might have been ever so slightly oversold.
Kelly's archival work suggests that the researchers didn't just observe the cult as reported. Instead, they infiltrated it, faked supernatural experiences, assumed quasi-leadership roles, and then wrote up the results as if the group had spontaneously doubled down on their failed prophecy, which they had not. Because the leader recanted, and the group fell apart shortly after the failed prophecy. Minor details.
Matt and Chris discuss this paper, a 2024 multilab replication, and some other papers by Kelly, considering the ever-reliable tendency of researchers to find exactly what they are looking for.
It's cognitive dissonance all the way down, folks.
The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 10 minutes).
Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus
Decoding Academia 34: When Prophecy Fails Debunked?
00:00 Introduction
02:04 Cognitive Dissonance Theory
06:41 Classic lab evidence: effort justification & the ‘severe initiation’ study
08:33 When Prophecy Fails: The Original Account
10:54 The debunking: archival evidence, misconduct claims, and ethical red flags
20:22 Replication reality check: multi-lab results and ‘strong vs weak’ dissonance
31:40 Beyond one case: survivorship bias, failed prophecies, and early Christianity parallels
35:51 Christianity as Historical Anomaly or Cognitive Dissonance Exemplar?
41:48 Thomas Kelly: Interesting biosafety takes and a possible Christian lens
45:43 The importance of seeking for disconfirming evidence
50:23 Conspiracy-theory dynamics & narrative elaboration
56:30 Classical Psychological Theories and Personal Motivations
01:03:07 Steps that can be taken to reduce biases
01:05:01 Stay tentative, check evidence, and don’t pick sides too fast
01:06:30 A lesson from Scott Alexander!
Sources
Academic Papers and Books
1. Festinger, L. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Stanford University Press.
2. Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.
3. Festinger, L., & Carlsmith, J. M. (1959). Cognitive consequences of forced compliance. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 58(2), 203–210. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0041593 (The original induced-compliance/$1/$20 study)
4. Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking "When Prophecy Fails." Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043. https://doi.org/10.1002/jhbs.70043
5. Kelly, T. (2025). Failed prophecies are fatal. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 14(1), 48–71. https://doi.org/10.1558/ijsnr.33085
6. Aronson, E., & Mills, J. (1959). The effect of severity of initiation on liking for a group. The Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 59(2), 177–181. https://doi.org/10.1037/h0047195
7. Vaidis, D. C., Sleegers, W. W. A., van Leeuwen, F., DeMarree, K. G., Sætrevik, B., Ross, R. M., ... & Priolo, D. (2024). A multilab replication of the induced-compliance paradigm of cognitive dissonance. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 7(1), 1–26. https://doi.org/10.1177/25152459231213375
8. Croyle, R. T., & Cooper, J. (1983). Dissonance arousal: Physiological evidence. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 45(4), 782–791. https://doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.45.4.782 (The study that the Vaidis et al. 2024 multilab replication was based on)
Podcasts Referenced
Blog Posts & Other Sources
16 February 2026, 8:15 am
2 hours 59 minutes

Teal Swan: All Hail Source
Cult Season rumbles on as Chris and Matt expand their minds in an attempt to absorb the cosmic insights of spiritual influencer and alleged cult leader Teal Swan (born Mary Teal Bosworth, 1984). Our intrepid hosts explore her recent appearance on the Just Tap In podcast with Emilio “starchild” Ortiz — a beanie-wearing vessel of pure credulity, lobbing softball metaphysical questions gently into the astral winds.
The topic covered is ostensibly “Major 2026 Predictions” but this is really just an entry point for discussion of the ancient origins of AI, multiversal astral contract negotiations, and, of course, the urgent need to discuss masculinity before we spiritually implode.
You will learn insights, such as: how AI will eliminate ageing, guide us to SOURCE, amplify our shadow, and corrupt and deceive us ... all at once. Aliens and other cosmic beings are deeply concerned with and also not really all that bothered with humanity. Also, pop stars are apparently set to receive divine instructions to stabilise the collective psyche in 2026. And how we are all trapped in a planetary pressure cooker that will run at least until 2030. Teal is trying not to scare us, but it doesn’t look great (though it might also be great and lead to utopia).
Expect astral board meetings, sensemaking redefinitions of “power” and “love”, warnings about the painful sacrifices required to join Teal’s “conscious community”, and some distinctly uncomfortable talk about opening gates and reframing mother–son dynamics. As ever, Matt and Chris attempt to decode the elevated vagueness, semantic gliding, and cosmic scaling of very earthly anxieties.
All hail SOURCE!
Decoding Content
1. Just Tap In Podcast #260: "Teal Swan – Why 2026 Is a Psychological & Relational Tipping Point for Humanity"
Links
1. The Gateway (Gizmodo Podcast, 2018) - Six-part investigative series by Jennings Brown
2. The Deep End (Freeform/Hulu, 2022) - Four-part docuseries by Jon Kasbe
3. Mormon Stories #1607: Growing Up with Teal Swan - Diana Hansen Ribera - Interview with Teal's childhood best friend
4. Mormon Stories #1328-1331: Leaving Mormonism to Join Teal Swan's Cult - Jared Dobson
5. BBC- Teal Swan: The woman encouraging her followers to visualise death
6. Scam Goddess: The Culty Con of Teal Swan w/ Sarah Marshall
7. Conspirituality 111: Who's Afraid of Teal Swan (pt 2) (w/Jennings Brown)
8. Prosody's Gurudex Website
13 February 2026, 12:00 am
22 minutes 58 seconds

Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs? (Patreon Series)

In this Decoding Academia episode, we take a look at a 2025 paper by Daria Ovsyannikova, Victoria Olden, and Mickey Inzlicht, asking a question that might make some people uncomfortable/angry, specifically, are AI-generated responses perceived as more empathetic than those written by actual humans?
We walk through the design in detail (including why this is a genuinely severe test), hand out deserved open-science brownie points, and discuss why AI seems to excel particularly when responding to negative or distress-laden prompts. Along the way, Chris reflects on his unsettlingly intense relationship with Google’s semi-sentient customer-service agent “Bubbles,” and we ask whether infinite patience, maximal effort, and zero social awkwardness might be doing most of the work here.
This is not a paper about replacing therapists, outsourcing friendship, or mass-producing compassion at scale. It is a careful demonstration that fluent, effortful, emotionally calibrated text is often enough to convince people they are being understood, which might explain some of the appeal of the Gurus.
Source
Ovsyannikova, D., de Mello, V. O., & Inzlicht, M. (2025). Third-party evaluators perceive AI as more compassionate than expert humans. Communications Psychology, 3(1), 4.
Decoding Academia 34: Empathetic AIs?
01:40 Introducing the Paper
10:29 Study Methodology
14:21 Chris's meaningful relationship with YouTube AI agent Bubbles
16:23 Open Science Brownie Points
17:50 Empathetic Prompt Engineering: Humans and AIs
21:17 Study 1 and 2
31:35 Study 3 and 4
37:00 Study Conclusions
42:27 Severe Hypothesis Testing
45:11 Seeking out Disconfirming Evidence
47:06 Why do AIs do better on negative prompts?
54:48 Final Thoughts

12 February 2026, 3:20 am
1 hour 35 minutes

The Rise of the Science Populists with Sam Gregson and Tim Henke
In this interview episode, we are joined by physicists Sam Gregson (Bad Boy of Science YouTube channel) and Tim Henke to examine the rise of science populism: a style of science communication that borrows the tactics of political populism, including grievance narratives, institutional distrust, and conspiratorial framing, while presenting its advocates as lone truth-tellers battling a corrupt academic elite.
We discuss how DTG favourites like Sabine Hossenfelder and Eric Weinstein, as well as fresh new faces Brian Keating and Avi Loeb, deploy selective truths about physics to fuel self-aggrandising, anti-expert narratives.
Along the way, we also cover stuff like why “physics hasn’t progressed in 50 years”, cranks are useful props for populist arguments, and the strange obsession with Nobel Prizes.
If you are interested in guru dynamics, science communication, and physics crankery, this might be an episode for you.
Links
9 February 2026, 11:20 am
32 minutes 31 seconds

Supplementary Material 44: Peasant Archmages, Moral Panics, and LOTR Parenting Tips
We descend once more into the Gurusphere, encountering secret peasant archmages, decline narratives, Epstein emails, and endless moral panics.
The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 37 minutes).
Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus
00:00 SM 44 PF
00:23 Introduction
01:30 Konstantin Kisin: Not Left Or Right, Just Right
05:20 Boghossian is shocked by pessimistic French people
08:50 Konstantin and Warren Smith as relics of the anti-SJW era
12:45 A PSA! Hyper Capitalism Tier Update!
18:36 Matt's AV Setup
20:01 Recommendation: Successville (British version)
21:40 My peasant farmer dad is secretly an Archmage!
28:14 Scott Galloway talks with Gwyneth Paltrow
40:18 American Capitalist Culture and the Gurus
48:54 Bryan Johnson vs AG1
51:45 Bryan Johnson & Epstein Schmoozing
58:09 Bari Weiss's Peter Attia Woes
59:14 Epstein and QAnon Conspiracies
01:03:23 Overinterpreting Epstein emails
01:09:04 Shermer promotes Dave Rubin to hawk his book on Truth
01:10:37 Conspiracy Theory prevalence on left and riht
01:17:44 Jonathan Haidt and his anti-social media crusade
01:23:15 Plato on the Corruption of the Youth
01:24:30 The Eternal Appeal of Decline Narratives
01:26:22 They won't let you enjoy things anymore...
01:30:24 Matt's laissez-faire parenting tips
01:31:45 Life lessons from Lord of the Rings
01:34:17 The Witch King of Angmar defeated by a Woke White Women
Sources
7 February 2026, 3:00 am
1 hour 32 minutes

Open Science, Psychology, and the Art of Not Quite Claiming Causality with Julia Rohrer
In a rare departure from our usual diet of online weirdos, this episode features an academic who is very much not a guru. We’re joined by Julia Rohrer, a psychologist at Leipzig University whose work straddles the disciplinary boundaries of open science, research transparency, and causal inference. Julia is also an editor at Psychological Science and has spent much of the last decade politely pointing out that psychologists often don’t quite know what they’re estimating, why, or under which assumptions.
We talk about the state of psychology after the replication crisis, whether open science reforms have genuinely improved research practice (or just added new boxes to tick), and why causal thinking is unavoidable even when researchers insist they are “only describing associations.” Julia explains why the standard dance of imply causality → deny causality → add boilerplate disclaimer is unhelpful, and argues instead for being explicit about the causal questions researchers actually care about and the assumptions required to answer them.
Along the way we discuss images of scientists in the public and amongst the gurus, how post-treatment bias sneaks into even well-intentioned experimental designs, why specifying the estimand matters more than running ever-fancier models, and how psychology’s current norms can potentially punish honesty about uncertainty. We also touch on her work on birth-order effects and offer some possible reasons for optimism.
With all the guru talk, people sometimes ask us to recommend things that we like, and Julia's work is one such example!
Links
- Julia Rohrer’s website
- The 100% CI blog
- Rohrer, J. M. (2024). Causal inference for psychologists who think that causal inference is not for them. Social and Personality Psychology Compass, 18(3), e12948.
- Rohrer, J. M., Tierney, W., Uhlmann, E. L., DeBruine, L. M., Heyman, T., Jones, B., ... & Yarkoni, T. (2021). Putting the self in self-correction: Findings from the loss-of-confidence project. Perspectives on Psychological Science, 16(6), 1255-1269.
- Rohrer, J. M., Egloff, B., & Schmukle, S. C. (2015). Examining the effects of birth order on personality. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 112(46), 14224-14229.
- BEMC MAY 2024 - Julia Rohrer - "Causal confusions correlate with casual conclusions"
- Dr. Tobias Dienlin - Less casual causal inference for experiments and longitudinal data: Research talk by Julia Rohrer
30 January 2026, 2:35 am
21 minutes 43 seconds

Supplementary Material 43: Red-Blooded Americans, Real Life Alan Partridge, and Rationalist Eulogies
We crawl around the dark crevices of the internet so you don't have to. And what wonders we have to show you...
The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 34 minutes).
Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus
Supplementary Material 43
00:00 Introduction and Banter Allotment
01:23 The Hypocrisy of the Defenders of Western Civilisation
10:07 An Optimistic Take?
17:02 Scott Adams' Controversial Legacy
18:43 Scott Alexander's Rationalist Eulogy for Scott Adams
32:31 A Final Tribute to Scott Adams
33:43 Andrew Gold's Interview with a Racist
39:02 Fair Play for being a Racist
41:17 Comparing Follower Counts and Audience Makeup
44:40 Racism and Xenophobia Discussion
49:07 Securing the Future of Our People...
01:00:01 LawTubers and Grifting
01:00:48 Legal Mindset
01:06:02 Antifa Woke Women are Hunting Legal Mindset
01:07:41 A man of Christ
01:09:16 A Red-Blooded American
01:12:35 Woke White Women and Antifa Paranoia
01:13:55 Electro Gym Work and Pygmy Hippo Love
01:18:47 Antifa Paranoia
01:26:36 The True Masculine Renegade YouTuber
01:32:32 Concluding Thoughts and Farewell
Links
24 January 2026, 9:15 pm
3 hours 8 minutes

Scott Galloway, Part 2: Peak Masculinity
We return for Part 2 of our Scott Galloway deep dive, where the vibes remain strong, the confidence unwavering, and the relationship with empirical evidence increasingly… decorative.
Returning to our Modern Wisdom safari, we continue navigating the forbidden terrain of men, masculinity, and male suffering: a topic so dangerous that it requires constant ritual disclaimers, whispered caveats, and the occasional nervous glance around the bar to make sure we can take out the other men if necessary.
We cover Scott's outline of his masculine Third Way: rejecting both the Right’s “Bring Back the Fifties” masculinity and the Left’s “Men Are the Problem” framework, in favour of a solution that might be described as Stern Dad Who’s Also Nice About It. Prepare to thrill at proposals of mandatory national service, kindness as a masculine superpower, and the radical idea that young people might benefit from not being economically crushed.
Things get spicier when we’re told what women really want and learn about the adaptive skill check of the female orgasm. Chris Williamson unveils a prepared essay on What Men Want which proves to be a moving piece of therapeutic slam poetry that somehow manages to combine manosphere grievance mongering with woke therapy talk. We learn how what men really just want to be told is “you are enough" and should be kind for kindness sake, but also should optimise their friend group such that they can properly signal their high mate quality and train hard enough to take out all other males in the bar.
Finally, we hit peak Decoding Mode as Scott’s statistics begin to escalate: boys are ten times more likely to kill themselves, father absence turns sons into inmates, daughters into promiscuous approval-seekers, and nearly every claim is delivered with total confidence and minimal concern for effect sizes, confounds, or whether the study actually exists. Decorative scholarship is in full bloom.
We do our best as two hyper-masculine men to separate reasonable concerns about boys, mentorship, and social policy from hyperbolic factoids, pop-psych inflation, and the familiar habit of smuggling moral arguments in under the banner of “what the science says.”
Bring your hunting knife and stoic daily diary. Take your testosterone injection. And get ready for some man talk!
Links
- Modern Wisdom: The War On Men Isn’t Helping Anyone - Scott Galloway
- The Diary of a CEO: Scott Galloway: We’re Raising The Most Unhappy Generation In History! Hard Work Doesn't Build Wealth
Academic papers/Sources Referenced
- Culpin, I., Heuvelman, H., Rai, D., Pearson, R. M., Joinson, C., Heron, J., … Kwong, A. S. F. (2022). Father absence and trajectories of offspring mental health across adolescence and young adulthood: Findings from a UK-birth cohort. Journal of Affective Disorders, 314, 150–159.
- Dekker, M. C., Ferdinand, R. F., van Lang, N. D. J., Bongers, I. L., van der Ende, J., & Verhulst, F. C. (2007). Developmental trajectories of depressive symptoms from early childhood to late adolescence: Gender differences and adult outcome. Journal of Child Psychology and Psychiatry, 48(7), 657–666.
- Angelakis, I., Austin, J. L., & Gooding, P. (2020). Association of childhood maltreatment with suicide behaviors among young people: a systematic review and meta-analysis. JAMA network open, 3(8), e2012563-e2012563.
- Zhang, L., Wang, P., Liu, L., Wu, X., & Wang, W. (2026). Different roles of child abuse and neglect on emerging adult's nonsuicidal self-injury and suicidal ideation: sex difference through emotion regulation. Current Psychology, 45(1), 56.
- Callanan, V. J., & Davis, M. S. (2012). Gender differences in suicide methods. Social psychiatry and psychiatric epidemiology, 47(6), 857-869.
- Raposa, E. B., Rhodes, J., Stams, G. J. J. M., Card, N., Burton, S., Schwartz, S., … Hussain, S. (2019). The effects of youth mentoring programs: A meta-analysis of outcome studies. Journal of Youth and Adolescence, 48(3), 423–443. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10964-019-00982-8
- Lloyd, E. A. (2005). The case of the female orgasm: Bias in the science of evolution. Harvard University Press.
- King, R. (2024). Naturally Selective: Evolution, Orgasm, and Female Choice. CRC Press. (The researcher Chris Williamson is relying on)
- The Scottish Sun. (2025, February 17). Nearly six pubs closed each week last year with 4,500 jobs lost amid rising costs [News article]. The Scottish Sun. Retrieved from https://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/money/14352624/uk-pubs-closed-last-year/
- Greater London Authority. (2025, February). London’s Night-Time Economy: Economy, Culture and Skills Committee report. Greater London Authority.
23 January 2026, 5:40 am
34 minutes 41 seconds

Supplementary Material 42: Chimpanzee Testicles, Home Alone Statistics, and Influencer Research
We dig deep into the online world to DO OUR OWN RESEARCH and return with horrors never dreamt of by man.
The full episode is available to Patreon subscribers (1 hour, 23 minutes).
Join us at: https://www.patreon.com/DecodingTheGurus
Supplementary Material 42
00:00 Introduction
11:13 Rogan and Shane Gillis on Nick Fuentes vs Piers Morgan
17:49 Jimmy Carr's Physics Insights
24:00 The comedian shuffle
25:12 Andrew Huberman teams up with Goop!
30:41 Huberman injects his dog with testosterone.
32:09 Bryan Johnson and the secret longevity of the penis
35:41 The Science Behind Huberman's Careful Product Endorsements
39:48 The Statistics of Home Alone
41:22 Bryan Johnson's Love Tweet
46:24 Bryan Johnson's horrible treatment of his ex-fiancée
51:30 Andrea Botez and Influencer Health Research
57:41 Bespoke Treatments with Medical AIs
01:04:28 Self-Research, Stock Picking, and Gambling
01:07:47 Health Systems and their imperfections
01:12:37 Doing Your Own Research...
01:17:38 Matt's Content Recommendations
01:20:45 Outro
Links
8 January 2026, 8:00 am
2 hours 51 minutes

Scott Galloway, Part 1: On Men
We return to the podcast circuit in 2026 to examine Scott Galloway: NYU professor, prolific podcaster, and, more recently, part-time life coach for struggling young men.
Joining him on an episode of Modern Wisdom with Chris Williamson, we are invited into one of the few remaining forbidden conversational spaces: men, masculinity, and men’s problems. You may have been misled by the relentless popularity of Joe Rogan, Modern Wisdom, The Tucker Carlson Show, Triggernometry, The Diary of a CEO, Huberman Lab, and several dozen adjacent properties into thinking these topics are already discussed at length on a near-weekly basis. Alas, this turns out to be a dangerous illusion.
In reality, even mentioning men’s issues requires an extended ritual acknowledgement of women, failure to perform which risks immediate cancellation. Braving these cultural headwinds, we wade into manly dialogue about masculinity, sex differences, and male malaise. Along the way, we ponder the intricacies of culture war evolutionary psychology, anthropological wars over Man the Hunter, optimised dosages for manly whingeing, and whether making boys learn French verb conjugations qualifies as a human rights abuse.
So get your notebooks ready for some important notes from two of the most masculine men in the modern male podcasting space. Men...
Links
- Modern Wisdom: The War On Men Isn’t Helping Anyone - Scott Galloway
- The Diary of a CEO: Scott Galloway: We’re Raising The Most Unhappy Generation In History! Hard Work Doesn't Build Wealth
Academic papers Referenced
- Changes in gender-based hiring bias (large meta-analysis): Schaerer, M., Du Plessis, C., Nguyen, M. H. B., Van Aert, R. C., Tiokhin, L., Lakens, D., … Gender Audits Forecasting Collaboration. (2023). On the trajectory of discrimination: A meta-analysis and forecasting survey capturing 44 years of field experiments on gender and hiring decisions. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 179, 104280.
- Epidemiology of alcohol use disorder by marital status (US, NESARC-III): Grant, B. F., Goldstein, R. B., Saha, T. D., et al. (2015). Epidemiology of DSM-5 Alcohol Use Disorder: Results from the National Epidemiologic Survey on Alcohol and Related Conditions III. JAMA Psychiatry, 72(8), 757–766.
- Protective effects of marriage on life expectancy (US Medicare sample): Jia, H., & Lubetkin, E. I. (2020). Life expectancy and active life expectancy by marital status among older US adults: Results from the US Medicare Health Outcome Survey (HOS). SSM – Population Health, 12, 100642.
- Widowhood and well-being (contrary to claims of increased happiness): Adena, M., Hamermesh, D., Myck, M., & Oczkowska, M. (2023). Home alone: Widows’ well-being and time. Journal of Happiness Studies, 24(2), 813–838.
- Meta-analysis of the widowhood effect on mortality (men and women): Shor, E., Roelfs, D. J., Curreli, M., Clemow, L., Burg, M. M., & Schwartz, J. E. (2012). Widowhood and mortality: A meta-analysis and meta-regression. Demography, 49(2), 575–606.
- Marriage and life satisfaction across the life course (multi-country): Mikucka, M. (2016). The life satisfaction advantage of being married and gender specialization. Journal of Marriage and Family, 78(3), 759–779.
- Marriage, children, and happiness (Note “very happy” vs “pretty happy”): Institute for Family Studies. Who is happiest? Married mothers and fathers, per the latest General Social Survey.
Anthropology: “Man the Hunter” debate
- Original paper cited by Chris Williamson challenging the “Man the Hunter” narrative: Anderson, A., Chilczuk, S., Nelson, K., Ruther, R., & Wall-Scheffler, C. (2023). The Myth of Man the Hunter: Women’s contribution to the hunt across ethnographic contexts. PLoS ONE, 18(6), e0287101.
- Critical commentary on Anderson et al. (2023): Venkataraman, V. V., Hoffman, J., Farquharson, K., Davis, H. E., Hagen, E. H., Hames, R. B., … Stibbard-Hawkes, D. N. (2024). Female foragers sometimes hunt, yet gendered divisions of labor are real. Evolution and Human Behavior, 45(4), 106586.
- Another influential burial-based paper about female hunters in the early Americas: Haas, R., Jr., Watson, J., Buonasera, T., Southon, J., Chen, J. C., Noe, S., … Parker, G. (2020). Female hunters of the early Americas. Science Advances, 6(45), eabd0310.
- Critical commentary on over-interpretation of evidence cited for the depiction of gender parity in hunting: Martin, M., de la Mora, A. N., Valeggia, C., & Veile, A. (2024). Can women hunt? Yes. Did women contribute much to human evolution through endurance hunting? Probably not. American Anthropologist, 126(2), 365–369.
Fertility & demography
- Shaw, S. J. (Director). (2022). Birthgap – Childless World.
- Critical fact-checking project responding to Birthgap claims: Birthgap Facts: Unplanned childlessness.
Politics & fact-checking
- PolitiFact on claims about abortion and vasectomies at party conventions: Ask PolitiFact: Are Democrats offering “free abortions and vasectomies” at their Chicago convention?
- Australian Labor Party policy platform: Our Plan.
- UK Labour Party policy platform: Plan for Change.
4 January 2026, 4:20 am
1 hour 29 minutes

The Replication Crisis Christmas Quiz w/ Mickey Inzlicht & Dave Pizarro
In this festive descent into methodological despair, Chris and Matt convene a secret cabal of elite psychology podcasters within the Decoding Cloister, operating under the distant yet reassuring gaze of Arch-Wizard Paul Bloom, whose role is largely ceremonial but nonetheless morally binding.
Joining them are Dave Pizarro (Very Bad Wizards) and Michael Inzlicht (Two Psychologists Four Beers, emeritus), for what can only be described as an end-of-year audit of social psychology’s moral character.
What follows is a mixture of intense hubris, disciplinary self-loathing, and revolutionary insights, delivered via one of the most sadistic Christmas quizzes ever devised. The quiz format allows the episode to do what psychology does best: create the feeling of measurement while hovering dangerously close to intuition.
Alongside the quiz, we engage in some meta-commentary and sensemaking reflections on audience capture and the state of psychology-themed podcasts in 2025. In other words, it’s Christmas, so naturally everyone is discussing perverse incentives, damaged reputations, and the slow moral corrosion of institutions.
So join us, won’t you? For the first International Congress on Psychology-Themed Podcasting and Gurus…
Links
References
- Alter, A. L., Oppenheimer, D. M., Epley, N., & Eyre, R. N. (2007). Overcoming intuition: Metacognitive difficulty activates analytic reasoning. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General, 136(4), 569–576.
- Aarts, H., & Dijksterhuis, A. (2003). The silence of the library: Environment, situational norm, and social behavior. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 84(1), 18–28.
- Zimbardo, P. G. (1973). On the ethics of intervention in human psychological research: With special reference to the Stanford Prison Experiment. Cognition, 2(2), 243–256.
- Resnick, B. (2018, June 13). The Stanford Prison Experiment was massively influential. We just learned it was a fraud. Vox.
- Festinger, L., Riecken, H. W., & Schachter, S. (1956). When prophecy fails. University of Minnesota Press.
- Bem, D. J. (2011). Feeling the future: Experimental evidence for anomalous retroactive influences on cognition and affect. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 100(3), 407–425.
- Schimmack, U. (2018, January 20). My email correspondence with Daryl J. Bem about the data for his “Feeling the Future”. Replicability Index.
- Merton, R. K. (1973). The normative structure of science. In The sociology of science: Theoretical and empirical investigations (pp. 267–278). University of Chicago Press. (Original work published 1942).
- Hauser, M. (2012). Evilicious: Why we evolved a taste for being bad. Basic Books.
- Kay, A. C., Wheeler, S. C., Bargh, J. A., & Ross, L. (2004). Material priming: The influence of mundane physical objects on situational construal and competitive behavioral choice. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, 95(1), 83–96.
- Macfarlane, B. (2024). The decay of Merton’s scientific norms and the new academic ethos. Oxford Review of Education, 50(4), 468–483.
- Vaidis, D. C., Sleegers, W. W. A., van Leeuwen, F., et al. (2024). A multilab replication of the induced-compliance paradigm of cognitive dissonance. Advances in Methods and Practices in Psychological Science, 7(1).
- Kelly, T. (2026). Debunking “When Prophecy Fails”. Journal of the History of the Behavioral Sciences, 62(1), e70043.
25 December 2025, 3:00 am
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Decoding the Gurus

Christopher Kavanagh and Matthew Browne

Sources

Academic Papers and Books

Podcasts Referenced

Blog Posts & Other Sources

Academic papers/Sources Referenced

Academic papers Referenced

Anthropology: “Man the Hunter” debate

Fertility & demography

Politics & fact-checking