Welcome to the February 2025 edition of Andrew's Random Ramblings on the Yet Another Value Podcast. Once a month, Andrew will share thoughts on a few topics - this episode includes: Libra and Argentina, some things you've learned that changed your mind recently, lucky or unlucky stocks and doing hands-on research and personal experience.

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[2:45] Libra and Argentina

[7:38] Changing your mind

[16:32] Lucky or unlucky stocks

[18:46] Hands-on research and personal experience

Today's sponsor: Alphasense

If you’re unfamiliar with AlphaSense, it’s a market intelligence platform with the world’s premier library of proprietary expert insight. For years now, I’ve used Tegus for their expert call transcript library, and with AlphaSense’s acquisition, the depth and breadth of market research content available has expanded significantly.

Why I chose AlphaSense?

Unparalleled expert insights—access 150,000+ proprietary expert transcripts, growing by 6,000 per month, covering 24,000+ public and private companies.

Comprehensive market intelligence—search 450M+ documents, including company filings, analyst research, expert interviews, and more, all connected for deeper analysis.

AI-powered research at scale—complete qualitative research 5-10x faster with advanced generative AI, delivering instant, high-confidence insights.

Start your free trial now at: https://www.alpha-sense.com/yavp/

Sahm Adrangi, Chief Investment Officer at Kerrisdale Capital, joins the podcast to share his thesis on ACM Research, Inc. (NASDAQ: ACMR), develops, manufactures and sells semiconductor process equipment spanning cleaning, electroplating, stress-free polishing, vertical furnace processes, track, PECVD, and wafer- and panel-level packaging tools, enabling advanced and semi-critical semiconductor device manufacturing.

Kerrisdale Capital's $ACMR write-up: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/investments/acm-research-acmr/

For more information about Kerrisdale Capital, please visit: https://www.kerrisdalecap.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:28] What is ACM Research and why are they so interesting to Sahm

[7:27] Chinese competitors

[10:24] What is Sahm seeing with $ACMR that the market is missing

[12:54] Discounts

[15:34] $ACMR business vs. politics/regulatory risks

[22:48] China risk / listing in Asian market / US-listed company with operations in China, CEO being US citizen

[29:54] Is there a lack of urgency from management? (Capital Allocation strategy)

[33:54] $ACMR valuation

[37:33] Technical sophistication of the cleaning tools

[41:19] How exposed to slow down in AI spending and business growth prospects

[48:10] $ACMR final thoughts

[50:39] What could go wrong / what could break $ACMR thesis for Sahm

Today's sponsor: Alphasense

If you’re unfamiliar with AlphaSense, it’s a market intelligence platform with the world’s premier library of proprietary expert insight. For years now, I’ve used Tegus for their expert call transcript library, and with AlphaSense’s acquisition, the depth and breadth of market research content available has expanded significantly.

Why I chose AlphaSense?

Unparalleled expert insights—access 150,000+ proprietary expert transcripts, growing by 6,000 per month, covering 24,000+ public and private companies.

Comprehensive market intelligence—search 450M+ documents, including company filings, analyst research, expert interviews, and more, all connected for deeper analysis.

AI-powered research at scale—complete qualitative research 5-10x faster with advanced generative AI, delivering instant, high-confidence insights.

Start your free trial now at: https://www.alpha-sense.com/yavp/

In today's episode of the Yet Another Value Podcast, Host, Andrew Walker, shares his thesis and presentation on Sage Therapeutics, Inc. (NASDAQ: SAGE), a biopharmaceutical company committed to pioneering solutions to deliver life-changing brain health medicines, so every person can thrive.

For more information and to subscribe to the Yet Another Value Substack, please visit: https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/

Disclosure: long SAGE

Chapters:

[0:00] Episode sponsor: Alphasense

[3:21] Introduction - passive vs. active investing

[7:32] Overview of $SAGE and why its interesting to Andrew: passive owners in the company, shareholder engagement

[13:40] Biogen offer (rejected by Sage) - what happened

[17:34] Expert call with OBGYN (thank you, Alphasense!)

[21:38] Board needs to weigh opportunity cost of cash burn and options

[25:49] Shareholder engagement and IRWD cautionary tale / SAGE board and management compensation

[30:54] Biogen / Sage merger - why it makes sense and final thoughts

Today's sponsor: Alphasense

If you’re unfamiliar with AlphaSense, it’s a market intelligence platform with the world’s premier library of proprietary expert insight. For years now, I’ve used Tegus for their expert call transcript library, and with AlphaSense’s acquisition, the depth and breadth of market research content available has expanded significantly.

Why I chose AlphaSense?

Unparalleled expert insights—access 150,000+ proprietary expert transcripts, growing by 6,000 per month, covering 24,000+ public and private companies.

Comprehensive market intelligence—search 450M+ documents, including company filings, analyst research, expert interviews, and more, all connected for deeper analysis.AI-powered research at scale—complete qualitative research 5-10x faster with advanced generative AI, delivering instant, high-confidence insights.

Start your free trial now at: https://www.alpha-sense.com/yavp/

Shaul Rosten, Equity Analyst, Global Value at Redwheel, joins the podcast to share his thesis on Ayvens ($AYV.PA), a provider of full-service leasing, flexible subscription services, fleet management and multi-mobility solutions to large international corporates, SMEs, professionals and private individuals.

For more information about Redwheel, please visit: https://www.redwheel.com/uk/en/institutional/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:39] What is Ayvens and why are they so interesting to Shaul

[3:04] What is Shaul seeing with Ayvens that the market is missing

[5:46] How do they compete against capital Finco's / understanding the business, how they make money

[14:58] Red flags: what's going on with the "big merger" they did (LeasePlan)

[23:12] Electric vehicles

[28:02] Right to grow right now

[32:54] SocGen's 52% ownership

[38:29] Regulatory risks

[42:20] What could go wrong / what could break Ayvens thesis for Shaul

[46:14] Final thoughts: revisiting question - what does Shaul think the market is missing here, how'd they do during the GFC

[49:19] Financing business

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

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Marc Chalfin, CIO, Founder & Portfolio Manager, and Jay Upadhyay, Senior Research Analyst, at Windward Management LP, join the podcast to share their thesis on Groupon (NASDAQ: GRPN).

For more information about Windward Management LP, please visit:https://www.windwardmg.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:16] What is Groupon $GRPN and why is it so interesting right now to Marc and Jay

[3:24] $GRPN overhaul, why now is interesting and Windward's thesis

[11:49] $GRPN set up

[18:26] What is Marc and Jay seeing with $GRPN that the market is missing

[24:33] Inventory and Technology

[31:48] SumUp / BaseRate

[37:37] Final thoughts: web traffic, understanding the tailwinds

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Earnings season is hectic—there’s no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.

Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.

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Jeremie Eliahou Ontiveros, Technology Analyst at SemiAnalysis, joins the podcast to share his thoughts on the supply/demand dynamics of AI and data centers. For more information about SemiAnalysis, please visit:https://semianalysis.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:22] Supply and demand dynamics of AI; perspective on data centers

[9:03] Thoughts on DeepSeek; Jeremie's worry on the whole AI trade in general; AI training

[13:58] Is there a rush to generate more data right now?

[17:24] Jeremie's thoughts on NVIDIA

[26:32] What breaks the up cycle for AI / is subscription ultimately the way to monetize AI

[32:17] Interesting power plays (picks and shovels to support AI); bitcoin miners as potential AI plays

[40:58] Bitcoin miner/AI play that Jeremie is interested in; deep dive on AIRian

[50:27] Management activities from bitcoin miners; why are some of these companies not seeing the AI opportunity

[57:26] Final thoughts on AI, bitcoin mining, power, data centers; why this all domestic activity focused

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Earnings season is hectic—there’s no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.

Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.

Stop letting manual work slow you down. Set up a free account today by visitingdaloopa.com/YAV and see how Daloopa can transform your workflow.

Shomik Ghosh, Partner at Boldstart Ventures, joins the podcast for the second time to discuss his thesis on Kelly Partners (ASX: KPG / OTCQX: KPGHF), a specialist chartered accounting network established in 2006 to provide a better service to private clients, private businesses & their owners, and families.

For more information about Shomik Ghosh and Boldstart Ventures, please visit:https://boldstart.vc/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[2:20] Who is Kelly Partners and why they are so interesting to Shomik

[5:31] What is Shomik seeing that the market is missing with Kelly Partners

[9:09] $KPG's secret sauce for rolling up accounting firms / incentive risks / back office secret sauce that $KPG can do that PE firm can't

[23:36] International expansion / is there enough growth runway of acquisitions

[30:27] Why not relist in US from Australia?

[37:10] Expanding into other areas outside accounting / AI tail risk

[46:49] Management

[52:13] Why are they so focused on McDonald's

[55:22] Final thoughts

[57:26] What does Shomik think would be the cause for the thesis breaking with Kelly Partners / how does Shomik look at fair value here

[1:02:24] Quick thoughts on Match Group

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Earnings season is hectic—there’s no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.

Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.

Stop letting manual work slow you down. Set up a free account today by visitingdaloopa.com/YAV and see how Daloopa can transform your workflow.

Aaron Chan, Founder and Managing Partner at Recurve Capital LLC, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Carvana Co. (NYSE: CVNA), the leading e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars.

For more information about Aaron Chan and Recurve Capital, please visit: https://recurvecap.com/

Carvana - Recurve’s Response to Hindenburg’s Short Attack (article): https://recurvecap.com/insights/carvana-recurves-response-to-hindenburgs-short-attack

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:20] What is Carvana and why are they so interesting to Aaron

[5:00] What is Aaron seeing with $CVNA thesis that that the market is missing; differentiated view on CVNA

[9:39] Why the volatility and addressing that fear; factors for the wild swings

[16:49] Competitive analysis - why is no one copying the $CVNA model

[22:44] How much of an advantage is the national level of $CVNA's exposure

[26:47] Brand building / advertising

[30:30] $CVNA economics

[37:09] Why are so many short sellers attracted to $CVNA

[52:18] What Aaron thinks would be the reason $CVNA thesis doesn't work 3-5 years from now; downside risks to thesis

[57:05] Can $CVNA profitably serve rural places and discussion on valuation

[1:03:50] Why isn't every used car dealer dead and final thoughts

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Earnings season is hectic—there’s no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.

Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.

Stop letting manual work slow you down. Set up a free account today by visiting daloopa.com/YAV and see how Daloopa can transform your workflow.

Yaron Naymark, Founder of 1 Main Capital, is back for the fifth time on the podcast to provide an update on his thesis for International Workplace Group plc (LSE: IWG), and how he overcomes the general investor skepticism associated with the company.

For more information about Yaron Naymark and 1 Main Capital, please visit: https://www.1maincapital.com/

Yaron's original YAVP appearance talking $IWG.L: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QmVjVOoG6Sc

Yaron's last YAVP appearance talking $IWG.L (June 2024): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FkZng2PSdxM

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Daloopa

[1:31] Overview of $IWG.L and why it's interesting to Yaron

[10:36] Valuation

[13:42] Franchisees happiness levels with IWG / IWG's "secret sauce"; competitive advantage

[21:44] Funding is an obstacle? / RevPAR

[33:00] Overcoming general investor skepticism

[44:36] Recent transactions in the IWG (shared space) industry, and what that means for IWG valuation / why doesn't Regis own WeWork right now

[53:15] Valuation

[57:02] What the most likely reason Yaron thinks the thesis doesn't play out / final thoughts

Today's sponsor: Daloopa

Earnings season is hectic—there’s no way around it. But what if you could take back the time you spend on manual model updates? With Daloopa, you can.

Daloopa automates your audit and update process, instantly pulling accurate, fundamental data from filings and reports directly into your models. That means no more wasting hours on repetitive tasks. Instead, you can focus on analyzing trends, refining strategies, and staying ahead of the competition.

Stop letting manual work slow you down. Set up a free account today by visiting daloopa.com/YAV and see how Daloopa can transform your workflow.

Rory Wallace, Chief Investment Officer at Outerbridge Capital, joins the podcast to discuss his thesis on Allot Ltd. (NASDAQ: ALLT), a leading global provider of innovative network intelligence and security solutions for service providers and enterprises worldwide.

For more information about Rory Wallace and Outbridge Capital, please visit: https://www.outerbridgecapital.com/

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fintool

[2:06] What is Allot $ALLT and why is it so interesting to Rory

[7:22] What is Rory seeing with $ALLT thesis that that the market is missing

[12:11] Fundamental question RE: vendors and vendor stickiness with Verizon partnership

[20:51] Why are customers signing up for Verizon security service vs. something else

[27:34] What drove $ALLT run in stock price in last couple months

[30:44] What is different this time with the $ALLT pitch vs. past write-ups on VIC

[34:55] Management

[39:10] Is there a chance that AT&T would use the same CCAS provider as Verizon (Allot)

[43:36] Shareholder mindset of the company

[46:07] $ALLT valuation

[48:22] Competitive landscape

Today's sponsor: Fintool

Fintool is ChatGPT for SEC Filings and earnings calls. Are you still doing keyword searches and going to the individual filing and using control F? That’s the old way of doing things before AI. With Fintool, you can ask any question and it’s going to automatically generate the best answer. So they may pull from a portion of an earnings call, or a 10k, whatever it may be and then answer your question. The best part- every portion of the answer is cited with the source document.

Now- if you’ve tried to do any of this in ChatGPT you may know that the answers are often wrong or hallucinations. The way Fintool is able to outperform ChatGPT is their focus on the SEC filings. If you’re an analyst or a portfolio manager at a hedge fund, check them out at https://fintool.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=yavb&utm_content=podcast280

Alex Morris, Author of "Buffett and Munger Unscripted" and Owner & Analyst at TSOH Investment Research, joins the podcast to discuss his first book, "Buffett and Munger Unscripted."

You can buy your copy of Alex's new book, "Buffett and Munger Unscripted" here: https://amzn.to/4asUWNi

Chapters:

[0:00] Introduction + Episode sponsor: Fintool

[3:03] Why Alex decided to write "Buffett and Munger Unscripted"

[7:53] When did the repetition build up (speaking to organization of the book)

[10:23] Incentives and ethical guardrails

[21:10] Biggest differences about Buffett over the last 20-30 years

[29:53] Nike

[39:14] Is there an industry that Berkshire hasn't really invested in after all of Alex's research

[41:56] Wal-Mart and Costco

[45:27] Predictability and cyclical businesses

[49:11] Alex's view of Buffett's thoughts on the market these days

[51:55] Parallels between Berkshire to Markel

[55:42] Banks

[1:04:22] Andrew's thoughts on Academy Sports + Outdoors, and the space in general

Today's sponsor: Fintool

Fintool is ChatGPT for SEC Filings and earnings calls. Are you still doing keyword searches and going to the individual filing and using control F? That’s the old way of doing things before AI. With Fintool, you can ask any question and it’s going to automatically generate the best answer. So they may pull from a portion of an earnings call, or a 10k, whatever it may be and then answer your question. The best part- every portion of the answer is cited with the source document.

Now- if you’ve tried to do any of this in ChatGPT you may know that the answers are often wrong or hallucinations. The way Fintool is able to outperform ChatGPT is their focus on the SEC filings. If you’re an analyst or a portfolio manager at a hedge fund, check them out at https://fintool.com?utm_source=substack&utm_campaign=yavb&utm_content=podcast280