Justin is back with Stacey Vanek Smith for another episode of Off the Clock just in time for America’s 250th birthday. The two of us dive into the latest economic news, and sift through the noise so you don’t have to.

This week’s conversation covers the latest jobs report (disappointing but far from a disaster), the possible causes of the ongoing disconnect between economic statistics and consumer sentiment, the pros and cons and a less transparent Fed, and America’s newest addition to its tax code—Trump accounts.

To wrap things up, Justin and Stacey look back on the many ways life has improved for Americans over our nation’s 250 years—from income to life expectancy to jobs, and what that might tell us about the future of work and our next quarter-millennium.

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Is a “bad” jobs number is closer to normal than you think?

In this 10-minute breakdown, Justin Wolfers explains how to read the latest jobs report without overreacting to a single headline. June payroll growth came in at 57,000, which looks weak by the standards of a few years ago. But those older standards may no longer fit an economy with slower population growth and lower immigration. The labor market may now need only around 60,000 new jobs a month to stay in balance.

Justin also discusses what’s really driving the labor market. The answer is not manufacturing, but healthcare and social assistance. In fact, more than 100% of net job growth since January 2025 has come from those sectors alone, while the rest of the economy has lost jobs overall. This matters for two reasons. First, it explains why women have received 90% of the jobs created in this expansion. Second, it illuminates why so many Americans feel economic opportunity is shrinking. If you are not in the sectors that are expanding, the economy may feel far weaker than the headline unemployment rate suggests.

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Inflation doesn't just raise prices — it tricks you into staring at bigger dollar numbers instead of asking what those dollars can actually buy. A two percent pay raise sounds great until inflation is running at three percent. Your savings account pays more interest until you realize it's still losing purchasing power. This is “money illusion,” and it costs you real money.

In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why inflation is like driving through fog: The signals are still there, but they're much harder to read. He walks through the mental shift you need to make — from thinking in dollar signs to thinking in purchasing power — then reveals five practical strategies you can use right now to protect yourself and your wallet. But there is also a deeper lesson revealed: Good economics is about asking what the number you’re seeing really means. Once you start asking it, you're ready to protect yourself during inflationary times.

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Getting food delivered should be simple — but somehow it's gotten outrageously expensive. In this video, Justin Wolfers break down why food delivery apps like DoorDash, Uber Eats, and Grubhub make it nearly impossible to compare prices, and why that's no accident. Justin Wolfers spent half an hour pricing the same dinner order across four platforms, and the results will make you rethink every takeout order you've ever placed. This is what happens when bad design is there by design.

This isn't just a story about annoying apps — it's about how markets can fail even when competition exists. When comparing prices is too painful, firms stop competing on price, and you end up paying more than you should. The FTC is starting to take notice, and there are real fixes on the table. But until then, that $28 burrito isn't going anywhere.

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In this episode of Slate's What Next, we examine the economic costs of the conflict with Iran and why the true price of war extends far beyond the immediate impact on oil prices. From higher energy costs to the effects of rising geopolitical risk on economic growth, we explore how economists measure the consequences of uncertainty — and why those costs are felt most by the world’s most vulnerable households. The conversation also looks at the broader economic implications of weakened institutions and why competition, not just business success, is the foundation of long-term prosperity.

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Trump's trade war just won't die. After the Supreme Court struck down his "Liberation Day" tariffs and courts blocked his emergency global surcharge, the White House is back with a third attempt — this time wrapped in language forced labor, unfair trade practices, and a legal paper trail designed to survive court challenges. It's a new legal strategy, but the same chaotic trade war that's been whipsawing businesses, allies, and consumers for months.

The problem isn't just legal — it's economic. These tariffs are too unstable to drive real investment, too broad to give America any real leverage, and too tied to presidential whims to ever deliver on promises of re-industrialization and job creation. What they do deliver is higher prices for consumers, uncertainty for businesses, and new opportunities for political favoritism. Same trade war, better lawyers, even worse economics.

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Justin Wolfers breaks down the biggest myths surrounding the monthly jobs report, starting with why strong hiring doesn't always move the unemployment rate. He also addresses the recurring claim that new jobs are low quality or mostly second jobs, explaining that the jobs report simply doesn't contain enough detail to support those conclusions in real time.

The conversation then goes deep on revisions, seasonal adjustments, and benchmark updates — and why none of these are signs of manipulation, but rather evidence that measurement improves as better data arrives. Private sector estimates like ADP get attention too, but Wolfers explains why their margin of error makes month-to-month comparisons nearly meaningless.

Inflation and recession close out the discussion, and Wolfers is direct: the two are related concerns but not interchangeable ones. Inflation can make households feel economically miserable without the economy actually being in recession. Public confusion between these concepts distorts everything from consumer confidence to political debate.

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The work week may be over, but the economy really never takes time off. In this week’s episode of Off the Clock, Justin Wolfers and Stacey Vanek Smith help you cut through the noise and figure out what you should actually care about from this week’s economic news.

They skip the SpaceX hype and dig into the stuff that shapes your real life—inflation eating into your paycheck and the slow-motion crisis threatening Social Security. Justin argues this is the biggest story no one is talking about.

They also discuss the World Cup ticket debacle—and whether prices are always the most efficient way to distribute our scarce resources.

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What happens when markets have to price the risks of war and presidential credibility at the same time? In this episode, Justin Wolfers explains why U.S. stocks keep rising and falling with Trump’s Truth Social posts, despite their questionable truthfulness. The core point: even if investors discount what the president says, they continue to react because the stakes are so large.

And the repeated claims that peace is just around the corner create a deeper problem. If investors come to treat presidential statements as noise rather than signal, markets may respond less than they otherwise would. That matters because Wall Street can act as a feedback mechanism, warning policymakers when a decision is economically dangerous. If that feedback loop weakens, bad policy is likely to last much longer.

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When the latest jobs report showed strong numbers, the internet exploded with accusations of fraud and government manipulation. And given everything the Trump administration has done—firing the head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, attempting to install a partisan loyalist in her place—that skepticism isn't entirely unfounded. But skepticism and dismissal are two very different things. In this video, I want to give you the tools to evaluate the data yourself, rather than simply asking you to take my word for it.

Here's what most people don't realize: the jobs report isn't a single number conjured by one agency. It's built from two separate surveys, cross-checked against state unemployment records, and stress-tested every month by independent researchers and private sector data from companies like ADP and Bank of America. I've seen authoritarian governments actually manipulate their economic data—and I know exactly what that looks like. What's happening right now isn't it. In this episode, I'll walk you through the anatomy of the jobs report, explain what real data distortion looks like, and make the case for why good economics means following the evidence—even when it doesn't fit the story you expected.

4:05    6:30 How the institution quietly held 9:16 Why I believe the numbers 14:00 What distorted data really looks like 16:06 Why the labor market looks strong 

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America keeps talking about manufacturing — but the labor market is growing elsewhere.

In this Q&A, Justin Wolfers answers audience questions and responds to subscriber comments from his recent episode diving into the gender gap in recent job growth. Topics addressed include: how the gender wage gap fits into the story, what’s standing in the way of more men entering care jobs, and whether the demand for labor in traditionally masculine fields has been overhyped.

It’s a discussion about economics, politics, and culture — and part of a larger conversation that’s only just beginning.

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