The Fed just raised rates unanimously — and Justin Wolfers explains why that 12-0 vote matters more than the rate itself. Joined by Bloomberg Businessweek's Stacey Vanek-Smith on Off The Clock, Justin unpacks what "Silent Kevin" Warsh actually signaled, why the president's dream of 1% interest rates would light a fire under inflation, and why even a government that repays its debts can end up unable to borrow again.

Then, Justin and Stacey debate whether "the feelings are the data," and Stacey builds the whole global economy into one bacon cheeseburger

.

Finally, Justin turns thousands of YouTube comments into a data set to show Americans something the U.S. media keeps missing: just how angry Canadians are, and why they'll accept real economic pain.

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The Fed just raised its target rate by a quarter of a percentage point, the first hike since 2023 — but Justin Wolfers argues the number on the front page isn't the real story. In this episode of The Professor Is In, producer Augusta Chapman brings you audience questions, and Justin explains why the bigger signal was new Fed chair Kevin Warsh convincing markets he's a genuine inflation hawk.

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Understanding The Fed’s Rate Hike Decision | Diving In

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates on Wednesday by a quarter of a percentage point. It’s the first time the Central Bank upped rates since July, 2023.

All 12 members of the Federal Open Market Committee, including Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, voted in favor of a rate hike. Justin Wolfers, professor of economics and founder of Platypus Economics, breaks down the Fed’s decision, and unpacks how it’ll impact your life.

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Why an "infinity percent" tariff on Canada may hurt Americans more than Canadians.

The U.S.–Canada trade war just got weirder, and Justin Wolfers walks through what actually changed. After Canada answered Washington's tariffs with a measured, dollar-for-dollar response, the White House escalated again. They proposed an outright import ban on things like Canadian alcohol, dairy, and auto products. His point: banning a product punishes the American buyers who wanted it most and now can't get it at any price.

That’s not the only way Americans are getting hurt. Canadian consumers are boycotting anything U.S. You can see it in the empty hotel rooms in Las Vegas and half-full convention centers. Canadians are "speaking from their heart" about sovereignty and dignity. No handshake between leaders will make that disappear.

Why should you care? Because the price of the clowning around lands in your pocket. This could look like a lost bonus, a thinner paycheck, or your employer's shrinking income. If Canada decides it can't trust its neighbor and diversifies toward Europe and Asia, that shift outlasts any single election.

Chapters:

0:00 Jazz hands and an update

1:00 What's changed since the last video

3:19 Meet the "infinity percent" tariff

4:30 Why a ban punishes American buyers

5:30 Do consumer boycotts actually work?

9:07 The real cost is the clowning around

11:07 How big a hit is this, really?

12:10 Should Canada diversify away from the U.S.?

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Why does the bond market matter more than the stock market for your wallet? Justin Wolfers and Bloomberg Businessweek columnist Stacey Vanek Smith take on August's inflation report, the rising odds the Fed hikes rates, and the one market that quietly sets the price of your car loan, your student loan, and your mortgage.

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Inflation is stuck at 3.4% and prices are outrunning your paycheck. Here's what August really showed.

The August inflation report just landed, and Justin Wolfers walks you through what it means for your wallet. Plus the all-important burrito price index.

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Is the promise real, and who actually pays for it?

At a midterm campaign rally Wednesday night, President Trump promised every adult American citizen a $5,000 check, but only if Republicans win both the House and the Senate. He's calling them "Trump dividends."

Justin Wolfers is here with a reality check, on Diving In.

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Can you still trust the jobs numbers after Commerce dropped its ban on political interference?

In August the Commerce Department quietly crossed out the rules that shielded official statistics from political meddling — meaning reports can now be delayed, buried, reworded, or stripped of their uncertainty. So can you still trust the numbers that shape your paycheck, your mortgage rate, and the price of your groceries? 

In this episode of The Professor Is In, Justin Wolfers answers the question a whole audience asked: in light of this, why should we believe the latest jobs numbers?

Most useful of all, Justin hands you a rule of thumb for telling independent statistics from political claims — trust the official statistical agencies, be wary of anything from 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and remember that someone who lied to you once will lie to you again.

Chapters:

0:00 An expensive way to make propaganda

0:56 Can we still trust the jobs numbers?

1:56 Which agencies are actually at risk

2:50 Why the jobs data is still protected

3:50 How statistics really get manipulated

6:22 The one report that was a lie

9:11 The tin-pot dictator club

10:02 Why propaganda destroys data's value

13:12 A rule of thumb for reading statistics

15:39 Official agencies vs. 1600 Pennsylvania Ave

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How the government can rig official statistics without ever faking a single number.

A few sentences vanished from a Commerce Department directive — and almost no one noticed. In this episode of Diving In, Justin Wolfers walks you through what changed on August 19, when the department quietly scrapped its ban on political interference in the science behind America's official statistics. No fabricated numbers required: a report can be delayed, buried, reworded, or stripped of its uncertainty, and under the new rules that's all allowed at the Census Bureau and the Bureau of Economic Analysis.

Here's why it lands on your kitchen table. These agencies tell you where prices are rising, whether poverty is getting worse, and whether the economy is actually growing. If a government distorts the inflation record, your grocery bill doesn't fall — you just stop being able to see the truth, and you can't fix what you can't measure. Justin counts the phrases erased from the old policy ("inappropriate influence": 10 mentions, now zero), shows how the scientific integrity watchdog job can now go to a political appointee who can be fired for inconvenient numbers, and walks through the Soviet, Venezuelan, Brazilian, and Argentine playbooks these new rules would permit. Then the one guardrail still standing: the 2018 trust regulation — and the big asterisk on whether anyone will enforce it.

Chapters:

0:00 A census report that was statistical nonsense

2:23 The quiet August 19 directive

4:13 Counting the phrases that disappeared

5:36 Steelmanning the rogue-scientist case

7:40 How statistics really get corrupted

10:19 The watchdog becomes a political hack

15:31 The one legal guardrail left

16:54 Stalin, Venezuela, Brazil, Argentina

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Canada just retaliated against President Trump's latest tariffs, and everyone wants to know how big the hit will be. Economist Justin Wolfers walks you through the whole U.S. Canada trade war, and lands on a surprising answer.

By the end, you'll understand why this trade war is small on paper, larger in reality, and what Justin would tell both Trump and Carney to do about it.

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Why did Trump's tariffs fail? It's a competence problem, not just a trade-theory problem.

Economist Justin Wolfers answers your questions about why the Trump administration's tariffs earned straight F's on their own stated goals. His argument: the problem isn't only the economics of tariffs — it's chaotic, incoherent implementation. When a policy exists on Monday, is gone by Tuesday, and gets thrown out by a court on Thursday, you'd be crazy to build a 50-year factory around it. Across-the-board tariffs give you no leverage over China, targeting friendly Canada over fentanyl sets no clear incentives, and skipping Congress means the next president erases the whole thing with a pen. Justin warns the real lesson isn't "tariffs don't work" — it's that incompetent tariffs don't.

This is happening to you: two-to-one, Americans oppose these tariffs, and the higher prices land in your grocery cart and your next big purchase, not on foreigners. Justin also pushes back on "manufacturing fetishism" — arguing that what you actually want for your kids may be a keyboard, not steel-toed boots — and closes on why AI, unlike past economic shifts, may hit knowledge workers like you fast enough to really sting.

Chapters:

0:00 The report card: straight F's

1:10 How to raise your grade: study economics

2:38 Why chaos kills factory investment

3:41 Across-the-board tariffs give no leverage

9:17 No Congress, no lasting power

10:51 America's standing has fallen

11:46 Americans are on Canada's side

13:45 The manufacturing jobs fetish

18:03 Will AI do to white-collar work what robots did to factories?

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