This week, the data is sending mixed signals about the state of the economy. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down February retail sales coming in stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer was still holding up earlier in the year, even as more recent data points to some softening beneath the surface and rates remain volatile. We also take a step back to examine long-term cycles, using the Artemis II mission as a lens to compare today’s economy and built environment to 1972, the last time humans orbited the moon. In commercial real estate (CRE), we dive into what happens as loans reach maturity, tracking a cohort over time to understand how many pay off, refinance, extend, or fall into distress. We also cover the latest CMBS delinquency data, along with notable headlines including a record-breaking $327.50 per square foot office lease in NYC, BGO’s $350 million acquisition of Bell Partners, and CVS’s plans to open more stores than it closes in 2026.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Retail Sales & Consumer Trends (0:28)
• Artemis II Mission: Economic Indicators Since 1972 Analysis (13:32)
• Loan Performance Data Analysis: Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 (24:56)
• Trepp’s March 2026 CMBS Delinquency Report (30:43)
• Office: Record-setting Office Lease in NYC & GSA (31:43)
• BGO’s Acquisition of Bell Partners (38:18)
• CVS's Expansion Plans in 2026 (42:08)
• Programming Notes (49:00)
• Shoutouts (50:30)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down a market defined by volatility and an “escalate‑to‑de‑escalate” dynamic playing out in real time. We unpack the sharp intraday reversals in rates as weak Treasury demand and inflation concerns push yields higher, only to be pulled back by intermittent hopes for de‑escalation. We also examine new Federal Reserve proposals aimed at reducing bank capital requirements for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, a potential catalyst for increased lending capacity at a critical point in the cycle. We also cover key CRE headlines, including a $166.8 million data center land sale in Virginia, notable office financings at One Madison Avenue and San Francisco’s Merchants Exchange, and Nordstrom’s upcoming store closure at Galleria Dallas. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Market Volatility & Banking (0:29)
• CMBS Spreads Performance in the Past Month (12:59)
• Commercial Real Estate Fundraising (16:37)
• Bank Capital Requirements Framework Update (24:02)
• Starwood’s Data Center Land Deal in Virginia (33:42)
• Office: SL Green's $1.65 billion refinancing of One Madison Avenue and Exonic's $50 million loan against the Merchants Exchange building in San Francisco (38:39)
• Mixed Use: JP Morgan & Vici Lend $4.3B for One Beverly Hills Completion (41:51)
• Nordstrom Store Closing at Galleria Dallas (43:39)
• Programming Notes (49:37)
• Shoutouts (50:48)

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the Fed's decision to hold rates steady against a rapidly escalating geopolitical energy shock that is re-accelerating inflation and effectively taking rate relief off the table for CRE borrowers. We also look back six years to when COVID shocked the world and walk through Trepp data to review how each property sector held up, recovered, and in some cases still has not fully healed. We analyze the $5.6 billion Public Storage acquisition of National Storage Affiliates and what CMBS data reveals about self-storage performance. We close with office green shoots, including Bank of America's 20-year lease at One Bryant Park, OpenAI surpassing 1 million square feet in San Francisco, a Wells Fargo SASB financing in Silicon Valley, and Starbucks expanding to Nashville. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Fed Holds, Iran Energy Shock & Higher-for-Longer (2:08)

• Six years post-COVID: CRE Delinquency Retrospective by Property Type (12:48)

• COVID Lessons: Modifications, Policy Response & Structural Shift (16:22)

• Self-Storage: Public Storage & NSA Deal, and CMBS Performance (34:11)

• Office Stories: BofA at One Bryant Park, OpenAI, Wells Fargo SASB & Starbucks Nashville (41:09)

• Trading Alerts: Manhattan, Chicago, Virginia & Office Special Servicing Transfers (47:56)

• Programming Notes (48:50)

• Shoutouts (52:29)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down how the spike in oil is affecting the broader economy and discuss how the energy shock is adding new uncertainty to inflation, Fed policy, and market sentiment. We also analyze the state of the student housing market as March Madness approaches and examine proposed housing legislation that could reshape the single-family rental landscape. In commercial real estate (CRE) news, we cover a major industry consolidation as Savills is reportedly set to acquire Eastdil Secured in a deal valued at $1.2 billion. We highlight insights from Trepp’s latest CMBS Special Servicing Report, review recent trends in the Trepp Property Price Index (TPPI), and discuss several significant headlines and transactions from the week, including Manhattan office tower valuations falling below their COVID-era lows. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Market Volatility & Oil Impact (0:29)
• Student Housing Market Analysis (12:04)
• Single-Family Rental Property Bill (18:45)
• Savills Acquisition of Eastdil (24:50)
• CMBS Special Servicing Report & TPPI (28:02)
• Manhattan Office Tower Values Plummeting Below COVID-Era Levels (30:22)
• Multifamily Transactions: Philadelphia & Phoenix (33:44)
• Fort Worth Texas Industrial Complex (41:02)
• Programming Notes (42:05)
• Shoutouts (44:13)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine rising Middle East tensions following US-Israeli strikes on Iran, including Iranian drone damage to Amazon data centers in the Gulf, and the ripple effects on oil prices and the 10-year Treasury. We cover the reversal of the 10-year Treasury back above 4%, rising oil prices, and record redemption requests at Blackstone's private credit fund. We review Trepp's February CMBS delinquency data, take a deep dive into the surging CRE CLO market, and break down $7.6 billion in SASB AAA downgrades. We close with a trading alert on the Minneapolis City Center loan and Target's surprise lease buyout. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Labor Data, Middle East Conflict & Ides of March Superstition (1:14)

• Iranian Drone Strikes on Amazon Middle East Facilities (15:35)

• Treasury Yields & Oil: Market Reaction to Gulf Conflict (18:55)

• Blackstone Private Credit Fund: Record Redemptions & Liquidity Response (22:05)

• CMBS Delinquency Report: Rate Declined, Led by Large Office & Retail Loan Extensions (26:19)

• CRE CLO Market: Record 2026 Issuance Pace (33:21)

• SASB Ratings Migrations & SF Office Losses (40:33)

• Programming Notes (53:26)

• Shoutouts (56:02)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we explore whether current market conditions reflect resilience or the early stages of repricing. We break down mixed inflation signals, the Supreme Court’s tariff ruling, and what policy uncertainty means for rates and risk appetite. We dig into private credit volatility and rising selectivity, CMBS issuance sentiment coming out of the SFVegas conference, cash-in refinancings, and new examples of office repricing from Chicago to San Francisco. We also cover fresh Trepp trading alerts and what servicer data is signaling across property types. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (1:51)
• TJ Maxx/Loews (14:24)
• SFVegas 2026 Inights (19:54)
• Chicago West Jackson Property (29:28)
• Amex Global HQ 2 WTC (32:07)
• Shvo Transamerica Pyramid Up for Sale (34:15)
• JP Morgan, Zenith Secure $130M Refi From KeyBank for IOS (37:44)
• NYC Multifamily Value Reduced Heavily, Expected to Exit Special Servicing (39:55)
• Programming Notes: LifeComps Report & More (42:28)
• Shoutouts (45:39)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we highlight softer‑than‑expected inflation, market takeaways from the Fed minutes, and key data releases on deck in a shortened week. We talk about key developments in affordable housing cand multifamily markets, followed by a look at data center growth and why Texas could be emerging as the next major hub. In a “digging through the data” segment, we do a deep dive into industrial performance across the top MSAs by occupancy, delinquency and average revenue per square foot. We break down office trading alerts for a Queens office and Chicago SASB loan, along with retail trading alerts involving loans from Saks Fifth Avenue and Paramus Park. We also discuss Palisade Center’s post‑foreclosure sale and wrap with Wendy’s plans to close 300 stores and the implications for retail and franchise operators. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (1:44)
• Affordable Housing Construction Progress (13:18)
• Data Center Market Growth: JLL Report (20:31)
• Industrial Deep Dive: Top MSAs by Occupancy, Delinquency & Average Revenue per Sq Ft (29:39)
• Industrial Headlines of the Week (35:35)
• Office Trading Alerts: Queens Loan & Chicago SASB Loan (37:55)
• Retail Trading Alerts: Saks Fifth Avenue & Paramus Park Loans (45:15)
• Palisade Center Sells After Foreclosure (48:07)
• Wendy’s Closing 300 Stores (49:32)
• Programming Notes (52:01)
• Shoutouts (54:37)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Larry Connor, Founder and Managing Partner of The Connor Group, one of the largest privately held multifamily investment firms in the U.S. Larry shares how he went from a failed business venture to building a multi-billion-dollar multifamily platform grounded in operational discipline. He explains why operations, not renovations, drive the greatest value creation, how his team uses real-time data and AI to measure resident satisfaction, and why the 2020- 2022 liquidity era created a market that couldn’t last. Beyond real estate, Larry reflects on serving as pilot on Axiom Mission 1 to the International Space Station and participating in other demanding expeditions, outlining the philosophy of disciplined risk, preparation, and purpose that guides both his missions and his investment strategy. He closes with advice for builders and operators alike: aim high and don’t self-limit. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in Real Estate (1:10)
• Parallels Between AI & Introduction of Computers (4:09) 
• Tenant Satisfaction & Property Value (4:39)
• Real Estate Market Predictions (12:43)
• The Connor Group Investment Strategy (17:14)
• Adventures and Philanthropy (24:12) 

Questions or comments?Contact us at [email protected].    

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the growing disconnect between headline strength and underlying softness in the economy. Retail sales came in flat, jobs surprised to the upside, and sweeping BLS revisions quietly erased nearly 900,000 jobs from 2025 totals, leaving markets to reconcile conflicting signals. In commercial real estate, a wave of store closures from legacy brands like Eddie Bauer, Pizza Hut, Red Lobster, and Saks made headlines, but we explain why this looks more like retail rationalization than another apocalypse. In multifamily, we analyze Camden’s decision to exit California, the rent-setting software antitrust settlement, Los Angeles’ new adaptive reuse ordinance, and recent transactions in Quincy, Wilmington, and Charlotte. On the lodging side, we cover a $372 million Nashville hotel construction loan, Gencom’s acquisition of the Ritz-Carlton Central Park, and the Waldorf Astoria returning to the market after a $4 billion-plus renovation. We close with a preview of Trepp’s upcoming CMBS maturity playbook. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Retail Sales, Jobs Report & BLS Revisions (1:52)
• Retail Store Closures (8:22)
• Multifamily Deep Dive: Camden's California Exit, Rent Control, Antitrust Settlement & Adaptive Reuse (19:38)
• Multifamily Transactions: Quincy, MA; Wilmington, DE; Charlotte, NC (35:44)
• Lodging: Nashville Construction Loan, Ritz-Carlton Acquisition & Waldorf Astoria Sale (38:37)
• Programming Notes (46:08)
• Shoutouts (53:31)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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Right after we recorded last week, President Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine what that move could signal for the future path of interest rates and how markets are reacting. A brief government shutdown also delayed key economic data releases, leaving investors with limited visibility into growth and labor conditions. We also sit down with Ryan Sievers, Tax Partner at EisnerAmper, to unpack the One Big Beautiful Bill and its key implications for CRE, including bonus depreciation, Qualified Opportunity Zones, and what didn't make the cut.

On the banking side, the latest Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey shows lending standards remain tight for office and construction—a trend we tie into findings from Trepp’s own lending survey—along with a look at Santander’s $12B acquisition of Webster Financial. Turning to commercial real estate, we unpack the January jump in the Trepp CMBS office delinquency rate, largely driven by two sizable loans, and close with key headlines from the week, including Brookfield’s $1.2B acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust and Oracle’s plan to raise $45-$50B this year to expand its data center footprint. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Fed Chair Nomination & Government Shutdown
• One Big Beautiful Bill Deep Dive with Ryan Sievers, Tax Partner at EisnerAmper (15:12)
• January SLOOS & Trepp-i Data (23:07)
• Santander to Acquire Webster Financial (30:18)
• First Bank Failure of 2026: Metropolitan Capital Bank & Trust (33:10)
• Miami Office Tower Trying to Evict Banco Master (36:11)
• Trepp January CMBS Delinquency Report (37:58)
• Brookfield Acquisition of Peakstone Realty Trust (42:13)
• Data Centers: Oracle to Raise $45B+ (45:56)
• Programming Notes (47:55)
• Shoutouts (49:45)

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As much of the U.S. stays frozen, the Fed also kept rates on ice this week. In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down the decision and what a shifting policy landscape could mean as Chair Powell’s term winds down. In multifamily, we share insights from the National Multifamily Housing Council conference, including a closer look at disciplined JV equity underwriting and the bridge-to-bridge lending trend fueling CRE CLO issuance. We also apply the Gordon Growth Model to San Francisco’s 3,165-unit Park Merced complex to unpack valuation dynamics and cash flow trends. Plus, we cover the co-working market’s resurgence, the halt of the $16 billion Hudson Tunnel project, Amazon’s closure of Fresh and Go stores, Fat Brands’ Chapter 11 filing, and recent multifamily transactions, including NBA star Giannis expanding his CRE portfolio with a Chicago apartment purchase. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (1:40)

• Fed Holds Rates Steady (4:11)

• Multifamily Insights & Cap Rates (9:00)

• Bridge to Bridge Lending & CRE CLO Issuance (19:34)

• Park Merced Case Study: Gordon Growth Model Valuation Analysis (21:25)

• $16 Billion Hudson Tunnel Project Halted (28:17)

• Co-Working Market Roars Back to Life (31:17)

• Retail Closures: Amazon Fresh/Go & Fat Brands Bankruptcy (36:03)

• Multifamily Transactions: Giannis' Chicago Buy & Arizona Deal (39:55)

• Programming Notes (44:10)

• Shoutouts (47:12)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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