In this week’s episode of the TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the latest macro uncertainties shaping markets, from the Federal Reserve’s rate outlook to the potential transition to a Warsh-led Fed. We also share a 101 on Trimmed Mean PCE, explaining how the metric works, why it matters, and why it is gaining attention as an alternative way to read underlying inflation trends. We also examine mixed signals across commercial real estate (CRE), highlighting strength in data centers and AI-driven office leasing in San Francisco alongside cooling housing trends. The conversation digs into earnings and deal activity, including a strong quarter from CBRE driven by infrastructure momentum. We highlight cautious return to lending from mortgage REITs and improving credit trends among regional banks from recent Trepp research. Finally, we discuss major transactions like Ken Griffin expanding office footprint at planned Miami headquarters, Supermicro’s large San Jose lease, and Oracle’s Michigan data center project. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (0:29)
• Market Outlook, Data Centers & AI (2:09)
• Housing Market & Oil Prices (9:28)
• FOMC Meeting and Rate Decisions (26:45)
• Trimmed Mean PCE Inflation 101 (32:42)
• CBRE Earnings and Growth Performance (39:44)
• Mortgage REITs & Regional Bank Earnings Review (43:07)
• AI-Driven Leasing in San Francisco & NYC (50:04)
• Ken Griffin Expanding Office Footprint (54:15)
• Oracle Data Center Project in Michigan (57:58)
• Programming Notes (1:00:42)
• Shoutouts (1:02:29)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Chad Lavender, President of Capital Markets for North America at Newmark, to unpack how credit, liquidity, and pricing have recalibrated through the 2025 maturity wave and what that signals for 2026. With more than $50 billion in investment sales, recapitalizations, debt placements, and JV equity transactions to his name, Chad brings a front-row view of the capital stack. He explains why this cycle differs fundamentally from the GFC, thanks to deep debt liquidity, why senior housing is outperforming every asset class with his team alone closing over $12.5 billion this year, and how operational alpha is separating winners from losers. We also cover the resurgence of Class A office, the rise of active adult and medical office, GP-led recaps and continuation funds, and why Dallas remains one of the most investable CRE markets in the country. Tune in now

Episode notes:

• Chad's Background & Path to Newmark (1:17)
• How Today's Cycle Differs from the GFC: The Role of Debt Liquidity (6:50)
• Deal Flow in 2026: Problem-Solving Deals, GP-Led Recaps & Continuation Funds (9:32)
• What Separates Great Operators in Today's Market (13:20)
• Why Senior Housing Is Outperforming Every Asset Class (16:25)
• Class B/C Buyer Pools & Class A Office Resurgence (23:39)
• Dallas CRE Momentum (27:16)
• How Newmark Uses Data & Technology to Advise Clients (30:57)
• Underwriting Priorities & Closing Thoughts (32:28)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].     

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In this week's episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the selective stabilization theme shaping CRE in 2026, with strong retail sales and pending home sales pointing to forward motion even as affordability still caps housing. We break down Blue Owl's $2.4 billion acquisition of Sila Realty Trust, dig into multifamily supply dynamics as the top 25 developers command a record share of starts, and cover New York City's $4 billion pension commitment to affordable housing. We walk through Trepp's latest CRE debt universe analysis, showing banks finally showing early signs of credit expansion. We then dedicate a deep dive to data centers, covering operational resilience, the emerging power stack, Meta's $1 billion Tulsa AI facility, Maine's new construction ban, and Google-linked data centers' record $5.7 billion junk bond. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Economic Update: Retail Sales & Pending Home Sales (1:55)

• Blue Owl's $2.4B Sila Realty Acquisition (6:10)

• Multifamily Supply & the NMHC Top 25 Developer Shake-Up (12:43)

• NYC Pension Fund's $4 Billion Affordable Housing Bet (17:34)

• CRE Debt Universe Update: Credit Growth & Banks Re-Entering (20:54)

• Data Center 101: Operational Resilience Tiers & the Power Stack (25:41)

• Meta's $1 Billion AI Data Center in Tulsa, Oklahoma (35:25)

• Maine Bans Large Data Center Construction (40:14)

• Google-Linked Data Centers' Record $5.7 Billion Junk Bond (45:26)

• Multifamily Deals: San Francisco, New Jersey, & St. Petersburg Foreclosure (46:53)

• Programming Notes & Shoutouts (50:26)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].    

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we’re joined by Justin Kennedy, Co-Founder and Managing Partner of 3650 Capital, to discuss the state of commercial real estate (CRE) through the lens of nearly three decades of experience. Justin outlines how 3650 Capital operates across stable cash flow lending, real estate credit solutions, and special situations. We dive into significant market dispersion in the market and why micro-market fundamentals and property utility matter more than ever, as performance increasingly diverges across similar assets within geographic proximity. Justin explains how technology-driven shifts in retail and office demand represent secular change, why investors must focus on forward-looking utility over historical metrics, and how AI is beginning to influence real estate analysis. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background in CRE & CMBS

• 3650 Investment Strategy & Three Vehicle s

• Real Estate Market Dispersion

• Market Evolution: CRE Today

• Technology Impact on CRE

• AI's Role in Real Estate Workflows

• Closing Thoughts & Advice

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we cover persistent inflation pressures tied to energy costs, improving liquidity in commercial real estate (CRE) financing and private credit markets, and key takeaways from bank earnings, where large banks continue to pull back from CRE lending while regional banks increase exposure. We also discuss the planned July 2026 launch of the Texas Stock Exchange and its implications for Dallas–Fort Worth as a financial hub. In a 101 segment, we break down 1031 exchanges and examine how eliminating the tax benefit could impact transaction volumes. On the CRE front, we cover Blackstone’s planned $2 billion IPO of its data center REIT (BXDC), the 575 Fifth Avenue acquisition by Sovereign Partners and Hudson Point Capital, WeWork’s new product. We also share several trading alerts from Trepp data. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update (0:29)
• Market Liquidity & Mortgage Trends: Blue Owl Capital's Bonds (11:36)
• Banks Earnings & Trading Challenges (18:02)
• Texas Stock Exchange & Dallas Discussion (33:10)
• 1031 Exchanges 101 (40:22)
• Blackstone Data Center REIT IPO (51:56)
• Trading Alert: Aon Center Loan (54:56)
• 575 Fifth Avenue Acquisition (59:25)
• Trading Alert: South Plains Mall Loan (1:01:20)
• WeWork Go (1:06:50)
• Programming Notes (1:10:55)
• Shoutouts (1:13:00)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this special guest episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we sit down with Mike McDonald, Senior Managing Director of JLL Capital Markets, Americas, to unpack the current reality and outlook of the U.S. office real estate market. Mike shares his career journey, from managing boutique firms to co-leading JLL’s national office investment platform, and offers a 25-year perspective on how office real estate has evolved, particularly in the wake of COVID-19. He explains why traditional Class A and Class B labels no longer tell the full story and how JLL’s new tiering system better evaluates office assets based on quality, location, and vintage. Despite the challenges facing the sector, Mike remains bullish on office investment, and he walks through his three core investment strategies. We also highlight opportunity-rich markets such as Dallas and Austin and discuss AI’s impact on the sector. Tune in now.

Episode Notes

• Background & Start in the Industry (1:18)
• Office Sector Evolution (3:08)
• Three Strategies for Investing in the Office Sector (14:36)
• Market Trends & Cycles: 2023 to Today (23:28)
• Opportunities in Dallas and Austin (26:54)
• AI's impact on the Office Sector (36:47)
• Betting on Office (40:54)
• Closing Thoughts (45:27)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we unpack the market reaction to the US-Iran ceasefire and examine whether the energy shock has already left its mark on upcoming inflation data. We analyze Jamie Dimon's annual shareholder letter and its warnings on geopolitics, AI, and banking regulations. We share highlights from our Trepp banking webinar on CRE lending trends and private credit dynamics, then dive into our Q1 2026 CMBS issuance data, including a 76% surge in CRE CLO volume and rising office concentration in conduit deals. We also walk through a CMBS appraisal reduction trigger 101, cover Empire State Realty Trust's sale of a Midtown Manhattan office building, the biggest LA office lease of 2026 tied to the 2028 Summer Olympics, and Bed Bath & Beyond's recent acquisitions. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Iran Ceasefire, Oil Shock & Inflation Outlook (2:12)
• Petrodollar System & De-dollarization Risk (7:46)
• Jamie Dimon's Shareholder Letter: Geopolitics, AI & Bank Regulations (10:51)
• Bank CRE Lending Trends & Private Credit Dynamics (15:52)
• Q1 2026 CMBS Issuance: Records, CRE CLO Surge & Office Comeback (23:52)
• Appraisal Reduction 101: CMBS Triggers Explained (30:50)
• Office: Empire State Realty Trust Sells Midtown Building to Namdar (36:26)
• Office: On Location Signs Biggest LA Office Lease of 2026 for 2028 Olympics (39:39)
• Retail: Bed Bath & Beyond Acquires Lumber Liquidators' Parent Company (41:58)
• Programming Notes (45:55)
• Shoutouts (47:43)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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This week, the data is sending mixed signals about the state of the economy. In this episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down February retail sales coming in stronger than expected, suggesting the consumer was still holding up earlier in the year, even as more recent data points to some softening beneath the surface and rates remain volatile. We also take a step back to examine long-term cycles, using the Artemis II mission as a lens to compare today’s economy and built environment to 1972, the last time humans orbited the moon. In commercial real estate (CRE), we dive into what happens as loans reach maturity, tracking a cohort over time to understand how many pay off, refinance, extend, or fall into distress. We also cover the latest CMBS delinquency data, along with notable headlines including a record-breaking $327.50 per square foot office lease in NYC, BGO’s $350 million acquisition of Bell Partners, and CVS’s plans to open more stores than it closes in 2026.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Retail Sales & Consumer Trends (0:28)
• Artemis II Mission: Economic Indicators Since 1972 Analysis (13:32)
• Loan Performance Data Analysis: Q1 2020 to Q1 2026 (24:56)
• Trepp’s March 2026 CMBS Delinquency Report (30:43)
• Office: Record-setting Office Lease in NYC & GSA (31:43)
• BGO’s Acquisition of Bell Partners (38:18)
• CVS's Expansion Plans in 2026 (42:08)
• Programming Notes (49:00)
• Shoutouts (50:30)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down a market defined by volatility and an “escalate‑to‑de‑escalate” dynamic playing out in real time. We unpack the sharp intraday reversals in rates as weak Treasury demand and inflation concerns push yields higher, only to be pulled back by intermittent hopes for de‑escalation. We also examine new Federal Reserve proposals aimed at reducing bank capital requirements for commercial real estate (CRE) loans, a potential catalyst for increased lending capacity at a critical point in the cycle. We also cover key CRE headlines, including a $166.8 million data center land sale in Virginia, notable office financings at One Madison Avenue and San Francisco’s Merchants Exchange, and Nordstrom’s upcoming store closure at Galleria Dallas. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Market Volatility & Banking (0:29)
• CMBS Spreads Performance in the Past Month (12:59)
• Commercial Real Estate Fundraising (16:37)
• Bank Capital Requirements Framework Update (24:02)
• Starwood’s Data Center Land Deal in Virginia (33:42)
• Office: SL Green's $1.65 billion refinancing of One Madison Avenue and Exonic's $50 million loan against the Merchants Exchange building in San Francisco (38:39)
• Mixed Use: JP Morgan & Vici Lend $4.3B for One Beverly Hills Completion (41:51)
• Nordstrom Store Closing at Galleria Dallas (43:39)
• Programming Notes (49:37)
• Shoutouts (50:48)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we examine the Fed's decision to hold rates steady against a rapidly escalating geopolitical energy shock that is re-accelerating inflation and effectively taking rate relief off the table for CRE borrowers. We also look back six years to when COVID shocked the world and walk through Trepp data to review how each property sector held up, recovered, and in some cases still has not fully healed. We analyze the $5.6 billion Public Storage acquisition of National Storage Affiliates and what CMBS data reveals about self-storage performance. We close with office green shoots, including Bank of America's 20-year lease at One Bryant Park, OpenAI surpassing 1 million square feet in San Francisco, a Wells Fargo SASB financing in Silicon Valley, and Starbucks expanding to Nashville. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Fed Holds, Iran Energy Shock & Higher-for-Longer (2:08)

• Six years post-COVID: CRE Delinquency Retrospective by Property Type (12:48)

• COVID Lessons: Modifications, Policy Response & Structural Shift (16:22)

• Self-Storage: Public Storage & NSA Deal, and CMBS Performance (34:11)

• Office Stories: BofA at One Bryant Park, OpenAI, Wells Fargo SASB & Starbucks Nashville (41:09)

• Trading Alerts: Manhattan, Chicago, Virginia & Office Special Servicing Transfers (47:56)

• Programming Notes (48:50)

• Shoutouts (52:29)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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In this week’s episode of The TreppWire Podcast, we break down how the spike in oil is affecting the broader economy and discuss how the energy shock is adding new uncertainty to inflation, Fed policy, and market sentiment. We also analyze the state of the student housing market as March Madness approaches and examine proposed housing legislation that could reshape the single-family rental landscape. In commercial real estate (CRE) news, we cover a major industry consolidation as Savills is reportedly set to acquire Eastdil Secured in a deal valued at $1.2 billion. We highlight insights from Trepp’s latest CMBS Special Servicing Report, review recent trends in the Trepp Property Price Index (TPPI), and discuss several significant headlines and transactions from the week, including Manhattan office tower valuations falling below their COVID-era lows. Tune in now.

Episode notes:

• Economic Update: Market Volatility & Oil Impact (0:29)
• Student Housing Market Analysis (12:04)
• Single-Family Rental Property Bill (18:45)
• Savills Acquisition of Eastdil (24:50)
• CMBS Special Servicing Report & TPPI (28:02)
• Manhattan Office Tower Values Plummeting Below COVID-Era Levels (30:22)
• Multifamily Transactions: Philadelphia & Phoenix (33:44)
• Fort Worth Texas Industrial Complex (41:02)
• Programming Notes (42:05)
• Shoutouts (44:13)

Questions or comments? Contact us at [email protected].

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