The latest summit between Presidents Trump and Xi maintained the fragile trade truce between the US and China, but how much progress was really made on the issues shaping the global economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about what the summit means for the future of US-China relations, including the ongoing disputes over semiconductors, rare earths and Taiwan. He also discusses why China is unlikely to play a decisive role in ending the Iran conflict, and why the ceasefire remains fragile despite ongoing negotiations.

CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geo-Economics Joe Capurso then joins the conversation to discuss the economic impact of the ongoing disruption in the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for global growth, inflation and energy markets. He also explains what the latest Chinese economic data reveals about the health of the world’s second-largest economy, whether more stimulus is likely, and the structural challenges shaping China’s long-term growth outlook.

Plus, CommBank Senior Associate in Market Strategy & Rates Research Michael Tang shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Federal Budget attempts to tackle everything from inflation and housing to long-term budget repair, but how much will it really change the outlook for the Australian economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman and Head of Market Strategy & Rates Research Adam Donaldson about the key measures in this year’s Budget and whether the Government struck the right balance between spending, savings and reform. From the impact on inflation and interest rates to the long-term path for deficits, debt and Australia’s economic resilience, they unpack what the Budget means for households, businesses and the broader economy.

Luke explains the major housing tax changes, including the end of negative gearing and reforms to capital gains tax, and what they could mean for home prices and affordability. Adam also discusses what the improved fiscal outlook means for Australia’s AAA credit rating, bond issuance and state budgets.

Plus, CommBank’s Associate International Economist & Currency Strategist Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets this week.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Reserve Bank has delivered another interest rate hike, but is the tightening cycle now nearing its end and how concerned should policymakers be about stagflation risks?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about the RBA’s latest decision to lift the cash rate to 4.35% and why inflation remains the central concern for policymakers. From rising inflation expectations to the economic impact of the Middle East conflict, they unpack the difficult balancing act facing central banks as growth slows and supply shocks continue to pressure prices.

Belinda explains why the RBA now believes it has space to monitor developments from here, what could still trigger another rate hike later this year, and why maintaining credibility on inflation remains critical in a world of rolling economic shocks. She also discusses the risk of stagflation, the outlook for household spending and housing, and whether inflation pressures could prove more persistent than expected.

Plus, CommBank’s Harry Ottley shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

For this special bonus episode, CommBank Chief Economist Luke Yeaman sits down with the Treasurer of Australia, Dr Jim Chalmers. They discuss the long-term direction of the Australian economy in a world shaped by geopolitical tensions, technological change and shifting global dynamics. From the breakdown of the rules-based order to the risks and opportunities of a “churn and change” environment, they explore how Australia can position itself in this new era.

The Treasurer also shares his perspective on the Iran conflict and its economic impact, including risks to fuel supply, alongside the outlook for inflation and interest rates following the latest data. They discuss what to expect from the upcoming Federal Budget, the role of tax reform, and how structural pressures could shape productivity, jobs and the future of work.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The US dollar has long dominated global markets, but is that starting to change and what would it mean for the global economy?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist and Currency Strategist Kristina Clifton about what de-dollarisation really means and why it’s back in focus. From rising geopolitical tensions to renewed pressure on the US Federal Reserve under President Trump, they explore what is driving the debate and how it connects to questions around central bank independence.

Kristina explains whether the Fed is likely to maintain its independence and what that means for confidence in the US dollar. She also outlines which currencies could challenge its dominance, and why alternatives like the euro and Chinese yuan face significant hurdles.

Plus, CommBank’s Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia’s consumer spending has remained surprisingly resilient, but early signs suggest that may not last.

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Ashwin Clarke about how households are responding to rising cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict. From higher petrol prices to broader cost-of-living impacts, they unpack how global shocks are filtering through to everyday spending and business activity.

Ashwin explains why household spending has held up so far, supported by savings buffers and a willingness to absorb short-term income shocks. But with sentiment deteriorating, real incomes under pressure and unemployment expected to rise, the outlook is becoming more uncertain.

Plus, CommBank’s Dr Hamid Yahyaei shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Australia’s housing market has remained resilient, but is the strong growth in home prices set to slow as interest rates rise?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Economist Trent Saunders about how the housing market has evolved and what’s driving price growth across the country. From rising interest rates to strong population growth and ongoing supply constraints, they unpack why conditions vary so widely between capital cities and what’s behind the ongoing pressure in the rental market.

Trent explains why price growth is expected to ease into late 2026, and how factors like mortgage rates, population trends and policy changes could shape the outlook. He also explores the potential impact of adjustments to the capital gains tax discount, and what it could mean for housing prices, rents and overall affordability.

Plus, CommBank’s John Oh shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The global economy is facing a new wave of uncertainty, but how much will the Middle East conflict slow growth and push interest rates higher?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Foreign Exchange, International & Geoeconomics Joseph Capurso about the impact of the conflict on the global outlook, with growth now expected to come in below trend over the next two years. From rising energy prices to uneven impacts across major economies, they explore why Europe, the UK and Japan are more exposed, while the US, China and Canada may prove more resilient.

Joseph explains how the surge in oil and gas prices is feeding into inflation, raising the risk that central banks will need to tighten policy further. He also outlines which economies and industries are most exposed to higher energy costs, and what it could mean for households, businesses and the path for global interest rates.

Plus, CommBank’s Senior Economist Ryan Felsman shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The Middle East conflict has entered its second month, but is a resolution any closer or are markets underestimating the risk of a prolonged war?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Senior Geo-Economics Analyst Dr Madison Cartwright about why a quick end to the conflict remains unlikely despite ongoing claims of progress. From the resilience of the Iranian regime to the lack of alignment between US, Israeli and Iranian objectives, they explore why the conflict risks becoming a drawn-out strategic stalemate.

Dr Cartwright explains how disruptions to key energy routes and infrastructure are already impacting oil, gas and broader commodity markets, and why further escalation remains a real risk. He also outlines why a diplomatic solution remains out of reach, what it would take to end the conflict, and why the global economy may continue to feel the impact.

Plus, CommBank’s Samara Hammoud shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Inflation has become one of the defining challenges for the Australian economy, but why did it take off and has Australia already hit its economic “speed limit”?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen about how inflation re-accelerated and why the Reserve Bank of Australia had already begun tightening policy even before the latest escalation in the Middle East. From strong demand across households, government and business to constraints on supply, they explore what is driving inflation and how close Australia is to its limits on growth.

Belinda unpacks how different geopolitical scenarios, from a quick de-escalation to a prolonged disruption in energy markets, could shape the outlook for the Australian economy. She also explains the role of fiscal policy, and what it all means for the RBA’s next moves.

Plus, CommBank’s Lucinda Jerogin shares the key focuses for markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

The conflict in the Middle East is rattling global energy markets, but how big could the disruption really be?

Host Mandy Drury speaks with CommBank Head of Commodities and Sustainable Economics Vivek Dhar about risks to global oil and gas supply as tensions escalate around the Strait of Hormuz.

Vivek explains how prolonged conflict could push oil and LNG prices sharply higher, forcing demand destruction across parts of the global economy and adding inflationary pressures. He also outlines implications for energy prices and risk management in Australia, particularly ahead of the winter season.

Plus, CommBank's Harry Ottley shares what we can expect to move markets in the week ahead.

Important Information

This podcast is approved and distributed by Global Economic & Markets Research (“GEMR”), a business division of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia ABN 48 123 123 124 AFSL 234945 (“the Bank”).

Before listening to this podcast, you are advised to read the full GEMR disclaimers, which can be found at www.commbankresearch.com.au.

No Reliance

This podcast is not investment research and nor does it purport to make any recommendations. Rather, this podcast is for informational purposes only and is not to be relied upon for any investment purposes.

This podcast does not take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs. It is not to be construed as a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any securities or other financial products, or as a recommendation, and/or investment advice. You should not act on the information in this podcast.

The Bank believes that the information in this podcast is correct and any opinions, conclusions or recommendations made are reasonably held at the time given, and are based on the information available at the time of its compilation. No representation or warranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, reliability or completeness of any statement made.

Liability Disclaimer

The Bank does not accept any liability for any loss or damage arising out of any error or omission in or from the information provided or arising out of the use of all or part of the podcast.

Usage of Artificial Intelligence

To enhance efficiency, GEMR may use the Bank approved artificial intelligence (AI) tools to assist in preparing content for this podcast. These tools are used solely for drafting and structuring purposes and do not replace human judgment or oversight. All final content is reviewed and approved by GEMR analysts for accuracy and independence.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.