•  
• Brady and John open with a light exchange about audio issues, spring weather, and using AI to fill in for John’s upcoming absence
• The hosts reflect on how addictive and productive AI tools have become, comparing the experience to having an always-on intelligent collaborator
• Bitcoin’s recent strength stands out, with the hosts noting that it outperformed gold during a real geopolitical scare while ETF inflows remained strong
• They discuss whether Bitcoin has already put in a price bottom near $60K, while questioning whether the market now faces a “bear market in time” rather than a deeper price collapse
• Sentiment indicators like Fear & Greed are highlighted as signs that panic may have peaked, even if confidence takes time to rebuild
• The episode covers macro tailwinds for Bitcoin, including improving manufacturing PMI, weakening jobs data, persistent inflation pressure, and the structural impossibility of reining in US government spending
• Strategy’s continued Bitcoin accumulation is framed as a major long-term signal, while the discussion around Stretch focuses on how Bitcoin-linked financial products are competing with private credit for investor capital
• The BlackRock private credit withdrawal limits story is used to contrast the opacity and illiquidity of traditional finance with Bitcoin-native alternatives
• Brady and John review major financial-system developments including Kraken’s Fed access, Morgan Stanley launching its own Bitcoin ETF, Coinbase custody scrutiny, and Elon Musk’s X Money rollout
• They close by arguing that Bitcoin is becoming more deeply embedded in the financial system, even if many of the latest policy wins are benefiting crypto and stablecoins more directly than Bitcoin itself

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

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► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• Daniel Batten argues Bitcoin has largely blunted environmental FUD, but is now losing a broader narrative war and needs an “influence upgrade” to reach the next adoption cohorts
• He frames the problem as a sales and marketing gap where Bitcoiners often blame newcomers instead of meeting them where they are with better messaging and messengers
• Discussion highlights a survey showing key barriers are distrust, perceived immorality, and perceived uselessness rather than demographics or politics
• Daniel introduces a “hierarchy of newcomer needs” emphasizing safety, care, and alignment before education can land effectively
• Practical guidance: lead with listening, empathize with why someone believes common narratives, and avoid evangelism in favor of tailored education
• Examples of what works: ambassadors embedded in target communities (eg pension funds, charities) who understand internal processes and patiently navigate committees and objections
• Key takeaway on adoption dynamics: Bitcoin is both technology and asset, so adoption requires both visible usage (virality) and institutional-grade education to reduce perceived risk
• They discuss how catalytic events often come from targeted conversations with influential decision-makers (ETFs, corporate treasuries, political shifts), implying more can be “created” with better influence strategy
• News segment covers macro tariffs/legal angles, bottom-ish signals from on-chain/technical indicators, and pushback on simplistic “Jane Street manipulation” narratives
• Quantum computing fears are addressed via Yan Pritzker’s thread: supply cap safe, risk concentrated in reused/exposed public keys, and migration paths like BIP-360 style upgrades

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• John walks through the CBO’s 2026–2036 outlook showing persistent deficits and a rising debt-to-GDP “hockey stick” trajectory
• The hosts argue the “gradual print + occasional big print” pattern is structurally embedded in fiat incentives and political constraints
• Supreme Court strikes down key Trump tariffs (reciprocal “Liberation Day” and fentanyl-related duties), framed as a separation-of-powers moment
• Market reaction appears muted and “wait-and-see,” with uncertainty over how the administration may reassert tariffs via other authorities
• A Bloomberg/EY-style projection is cited: debt potentially reaching ~$64T by 2036 with interest costs swelling materially
• Bitcoin ETFs: despite a drawdown from peak cumulative inflows, the broader flow base suggests many holders treat ETF exposure as long-term allocation
• 13F chatter: a new Hong Kong entity holding substantial IBIT is floated as possible capital-flight behavior, with caution that it could also be speculative positioning
• Quick hits: a congressman discloses additional Bitcoin purchases; Goldman CEO David Solomon (“DJ D-Sol”) mentions owning a small amount of BTC
• A Fed voice (Neel Kashkari) dismisses crypto cross-border narratives; hosts rebut that “no country will abandon monetary policy” is exactly why Bitcoin exists
• Crypto credit stress: BlockFills halting withdrawals is flagged as potential post-drawdown plumbing fallout and a reminder of leverage unwind dynamics

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

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► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

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► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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•  
• The hosts reflect on surviving the “ninth worst” Bitcoin crash and the sharp one-day move from ~$70k to ~$60k, followed by a quick rebound into the high-$60ks
• John shares client sentiment: widespread “WTF” confusion, plus a growing chorus expecting another leg down—often a late-cycle/bottom-ish behavioral tell
• Discussion of fear/greed collapsing to extreme levels and how prior bear-market patterns (e.g., late 2022) can rhyme without being predictive
• Inflation talk via multiple lenses: CPI vs PCE vs alternative real-time measures like Truflation, plus skepticism on CPI components (e.g., health insurance methodology)
• Macro implication: inflation appears to be cooling enough to give the Fed room for rate cuts, but Bitcoin can still rally even without a “big print”
• Lynn Alden clip reaction: Bitcoin bottoms tend to be slow, sideways, and buyer-rotation-driven rather than V-shaped without major stimulus
• AI as a potential catalyst and volatility driver across equities, with examples of major S&P names experiencing severe drawdowns amid uncertainty
• TradFi signals: CFA Institute review of a Bitcoin book framed as an “intellectual curiosity” bridge for mainstream finance audiences
• Lightning Labs announcement: enabling AI agents to pay via Lightning, positioning Bitcoin rails as a native fit for autonomous software commerce
• Quick hits: quantum-resistance progress (BIP-360), Elon’s “X Money” timeline, and “Bitcoin is dead” obituaries re-emerging as contrarian indicators

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

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► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

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► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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•  
• Bitcoin whipsawed violently, including what the hosts describe as the largest one-day drop in Bitcoin’s history in nominal dollar terms, followed by a sharp rebound
• Core message: “check your conviction,” widen your time horizon, and avoid leverage (options + liquidations are highlighted as the two classic ways people get forced out)
• Checkmate’s “bull case” framed around Bitcoin as a 10x technological improvement and the unusually high-quality, diverse cohort of people attracted to Bitcoin
• James Lavish’s “knowledge arbitrage” thesis: most allocators still don’t understand Bitcoin, and that gap will close as institutions normalize it as a core asset
• Saylor clip reinforces that drawdowns are a recurring feature of an emergent asset and often flush out leverage/tourists
• The hosts call out media “grave-dancers,” focusing on Paul Krugman’s critique and the inconsistency of dismissing Bitcoin for lacking earnings while holding up gold as the refuge asset
• A major working hypothesis for the crash: forced selling from leveraged entities or hedge-fund unwind dynamics (Jeff Park referenced), rather than a clean “fundamentals changed” story
• Crypto-industry capitulation is framed as short-term collateral damage but long-term bullish for Bitcoin (Pierre Rochard: crypto narratives slowed Bitcoin adoption)
• Lightning milestones: a $1M payment reportedly routed via Lightning (Voltage), plus Steak ’n Shake’s claim of faster checkout and ~50% fee savings vs cards, with measurable transaction share impact
• Quick-hit morale boosters: Gene Simmons posts HODL/DYOR support; reminder that Bitcoin’s adoption and infra keep compounding despite price chaos

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• Gold and silver reverse hard after a massive 2025 run, with gold down ~9–10% and silver down as much as ~30% intraday
• Framing: gold can shed “multiple Bitcoins” of market cap in hours, underscoring scale and volatility even for “safe” assets
• Bill Miller point: BTC–gold long-run correlation is near zero, so divergence doesn’t falsify the “digital gold” thesis
• Perspective check: gold stagnated for long stretches while Bitcoin outperformed, so recency bias cuts both ways
• Idea explored: gold strength can precede major Bitcoin moves, not as a law, but as a recurring historical rhythm
• Fed section: Kevin Warsh is nominated/expected as the next Fed chair; he’s publicly non-hostile to Bitcoin and calls much of “crypto” effectively securities
• Powell clips criticized: “central banking has served the people well” and “credibility is right where it needs to be,” despite gold signaling skepticism about fiat management
• Healthy hopium: David Marcus argues Bitcoin’s monetary properties and “gold parity” math implying ~$1.1M–$1.5M per BTC over time, with timing uncertain
• Policy/market structure: debate over stablecoins paying yield and competitive pressure on banks, plus a broader “digital assets industry” convergence thesis
• Quick hits: Binance converting a $1B reserve fund to BTC, BlackRock filing a Bitcoin premium-income (covered call) ETF concept, and a custody-related theft story

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• Debate continues on whether the Fourth Turning has ended, with Swan arguing more systemic stress lies ahead
• Gold’s breakout is framed as validation of the debasement thesis, not a refutation of Bitcoin
• Bitcoin and gold are positioned as aligned assets against fiat debasement, with different strengths
• Cathie Wood suggests this cycle’s Bitcoin drawdown may be the shallowest in history
• Trump’s renewed stock-market cheerleading signals shifting political incentives ahead of midterms
• Davos discussions show Bitcoin is now taken seriously, though still begrudgingly, by central bankers
• Politicization of central banks is bullish for assets but bearish for fiat currencies
• Japan’s bond and currency volatility highlight long-term consequences of financial repression
• Steak ’n Shake adopting Bitcoin for treasury and employee pay reflects grassroots adoption
• TradFi continues integrating Bitcoin via annuities, tokenized securities, and ETFs

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• Brandon recounts writing “Bitcoin and the Rhythms of History” in 2020 as a way to make sense of crisis-era dynamics and institutional decay
• Iran’s currency collapse is used as a real-time case study of how money failure fractures society, accelerates protests, and destroys savings
• The discussion frames the current moment as a “global” Fourth Turning, with synchronized instability, populism, and regime stress across regions
• Venezuela’s turmoil is interpreted through power vacuums, geopolitics, and resource incentives, alongside a skeptical take on nation-building efficacy
• California’s proposed “Billionaire Tax Act” is treated as a Fourth Turning signal: broken social contract, rising resentment, and a property-rights flashpoint
• The “supply vs demand of order” model is explained as a way to understand volatility when institutions cannot meet public demand for stability
• Generational archetypes are reviewed (Prophet, Nomad, Hero, Artist) as broad-strokes heuristics for how cohorts behave in crisis and rebuilding phases
• Bitcoin is positioned as “Fourth Turning money” and a new institution that replaces discretionary trust with protocol-enforced rules (“rules without rulers”)
• Energy and industrial capacity are discussed as strategic constraints, with AI/data centers shifting the public energy debate away from Bitcoin mining

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• Bitcoin holds around ~$90K as Brady and John frame the current range as a “higher floor” era with potential upside catalysts still intact
• “Healthy hopium” segment compares Bitcoin adoption to the internet’s S-curve and revisits how skeptics routinely dismiss exponential technologies
• Discussion of long-horizon Bitcoin returns using a “wealth table” framing: short-term noise, long-term trend clarity
• Lynn Alden’s view: recent selloff lows may hold as liquidity conditions improve and excess “Bitcoin treasury company” activity gets washed out
• ETF adoption story accelerates: Morgan Stanley launches branded Bitcoin and Solana ETFs, notably skipping Ethereum
• Bank of America/Merrill opens advisor access to multiple spot Bitcoin ETFs with a framed 1–4% allocation for suitable clients
• ETF flows remain resilient: outflows are modest relative to the drawdown, suggesting a stickier, longer-term holder base
• Macro/politics: Supreme Court tariff case is approaching a decision, with markets likely reacting in a messy, sector-specific way rather than a clean “tariffs on/off” binary
• Housing policy: Trump floats MBS buying to compress mortgage spreads and proposes restricting institutional purchases of single-family homes, with questions on feasibility and real impact
• Defense policy whiplash: conflicting announcements trigger sharp moves in defense stocks, highlighting policy-driven volatility risk

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

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► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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• The group frames 2025 as a “crab market” year that forced a psychological reset: ETFs, institutional interest, and political tailwinds can coexist with long sideways price action
• Brandon’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is “Bitcoin becoming boring,” arguing that social and political resistance has faded, with zero “Bitcoin obituaries” as a symbolic indicator
• John’s Bitcoin moment of 2025 is the US Bitcoin strategic reserve executive action as a long-arc legitimacy milestone, even if it didn’t catalyze price immediately
• Overhyped 2025 narratives include the strategic reserve as a near-term price catalyst, DOGE-style government “waste cleanup,” and the idea that “hundreds of MicroStrategy clones” would rapidly scale
• Quietly important 2025 developments include older coins distributing to new holders, steady growth in non-leveraged corporate treasury adoption, and “sticky” wealth-platform channel dynamics (Vanguard and broader advisory adoption)
• Cultural moments highlighted include “Paper Bitcoin Summer” and the “Great Creatine Awakening,” with a forecast that “four-year cycle is dead” memes will dominate once a new all-time high arrives
• “Bitcoin-adjacent circus” talk shifts to crypto-friendly legislative/regulatory theatrics and a 2026 concern: prediction markets and “trade everything” pushing 24/7 speculation into equities and daily life
• The most embarrassing fiat moments center on obvious government fraud and the contradictions of central banking narratives (including officials critiquing “intrinsic value” while managing fiat debasement) and symbolic milestones like phasing out the penny
• “Main character” is debated: the group leans toward the idea that leaderlessness is a feature, but names surface including Larry Fink as the high-impact mainstream convert, with long-odds speculation about future political and tech megaphone figures

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

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► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

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► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

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► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:

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• Brady and John open by owning missed 2025 price targets, framing the year as a sideways-to-down “crab market” around the high-$80Ks
• They unpack why “Bitcoin clicking” for the world happens far slower than new believers expect, even with ETFs and a pro-Bitcoin political backdrop
• The show marks the HODL meme’s origin (GameKyuubi’s “I AM HODLING” post) and uses it to reinforce long-horizon discipline BitcoinTalk+1
• They revisit Michael Saylor’s 2013 “Bitcoin days are numbered” tweet as a case study in changing your mind (commonly dated Dec 19, 2013) CryptoPotato
• Macro recap includes a cooler-than-expected CPI print (with caveats about data quality) and what it could mean for Fed cuts and liquidity
• Fiscal commentary highlights “victory laps” over still-massive deficits and why the debt train likely only slows, not stops
• They critique the idea of pushing 100% stock ownership as a policy goal, arguing it structurally advantages existing asset holders via compounding
• A Jeff Gundlach clip anchors the “patience is alpha” idea: long-horizon winners often look wrong early, forcing managers to churn BitcoinTalk
• They compare gold’s strong year to Bitcoin’s lag, noting ETF flows (IBIT) remain heavy despite negative YTD performance and debating “sell vs buy” interpretations
• Quick hits include an options-market “covered call yield” theory for capped rallies, and an update on Samourai Wallet clemency chatter as a privacy battleground

► For high-net-worth individuals and corporations seeking to build generational wealth with Bitcoin, Swan Private is your guide

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/private?utm_campaign=private&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your bright orange future with the Swan IRA today! Real Bitcoin, no taxes

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/ira?utm_campaign=ira&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Secure your Bitcoin with Swan Vault

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/vault?utm_campaign=vault&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Download the all-new Swan Bitcoin App

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/app?utm_campaign=app&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Want to learn more about Bitcoin? Check out Welcome To Bitcoin a FREE Introductory course. Learn about Bitcoin in under 1 hour!

    ✔ https://www.swanbitcoin.com/welcome?utm_campaign=welcome_to_bitcoin&utm_medium=sponsorship&utm_source=podcast&utm_content=swan_signal_live

► Connect with Swan Bitcoin:

    ✔ Twitter: https://twitter.com/Swan

    ✔ Instagram: https://instagram.com/SwanBitcoin

    ✔ LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/company/swanbitcoin

    ✔ Threads: https://www.threads.com/@swanbitcoin

    ✔ Facebook: https://www.facebook.com/SwanBitcoin/

    ✔ TikTok: https://www.tiktok.com/@realswanbitcoin