(0:00) Bestie intros

(1:19) Chip stocks crash, Leopold Aschenbrenner's $20B fund gets margin called

(20:20) China's advantage and green shoots for the US economy

(34:12) Frontier Labs say "SLOW DOWN AI"

(1:01:15) Why are frontier labs "burning books"?

(1:14:45) Socialism Corner: Mamdani's grocery stores and the "Socialist Spectacle"

(1:24:44) Science Corner: Understanding and mapping the brain

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Intro Music Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/30/leopold-aschenbrenners-hedge-fund-is-facing-steep-ai-losses.html

https://www.wsj.com/finance/citadel-buys-situational-awarenesss-stock-portfolio-after-big-losses-in-ai-5117159b

https://polymarket.com/event/fed-decision-in-september-762

https://situational-awareness.ai

https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US30Y

https://x.com/nicolasfulghum/status/2082083884578050299

https://theprint.in/science/breakthrough-china-artificial-sun-project-6-5-tesla-magnet/2999321

https://www.pacingthefrontier.com/

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/29/openai-cfo-sarah-friar-tells-employees-arr-in-july-topped-all-of-q2.html

https://www.dwarkesh.com/p/why-compute-might-get-10x-more-expensive

vhttps://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-starts-production-home-grown-immersion-duv-chipmaking-tools-source-2026-07-28

https://www.google.com/finance/beta/quote/ASML:NASDAQ

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/07/27/cxmt-china-market-debut-chipmaker-ipo.html

https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027

https://polymarket.com/event/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027/us-enacts-ai-safety-bill-before-2027

https://x.com/v_nefodov/status/2082927219224060043

https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-ai-future-is-for-everyone-a0c24e20

https://punchbowl.news/article/tech/thune-anthropic

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/anthropic-doubles-midterm-spending-to-40-million-to-push-ai-regulation-9cd547ae

https://x.com/OpenAI/status/2082577277246972300

https://www.carltonfields.com/insights/publications/2025/no-copyright-protection-for-ai-assisted-creations-thaler-v-perlmutter

https://x.com/Jason/status/2082577230941557068

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intelligence/ai-companies-are-reportedly-shredding-millions-of-books-to-train-models-tech-giants-outsource-to-middlemen-to-secretly-buy-up-books-for-training-material

https://www.404media.co/ai-companies-are-buying-tons-of-old-books-because-theyre-free-of-ai-slop

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1azwUwKrPo&t=39s

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2602.16417

(0:00) Intro: Humanoids, Robots, & AI+

(0:57) ANYbotics' Dr. Péter Fankhauser: Why ANYbotics Bet the Company on Four-Legged Robot Dogs, Not Humanoids

(13:18) Dr. Péter Fankhauser: China's Armed Robot Dogs Are "Stupid and Risky" — Inside the Terminator Debate

(15:01) NEO's Bernt Børnich: Neo Ships in 2026 and Becomes an Open Robot Platform

(22:18) Bernt Børnich: Robots Building Robots in Just 3 Years — "Hard Takeoff"

(33:45) Boston Dynamics' Amanda McMaster: Spot Is Now the Most Deployed Robot on Earth — Atlas is the Most Capable

(42:36) Amanda McMaster: Chinese Robotics Security Risks

(47:14) Agility Robotics' Jonathan Hurst: Why "This Time Is Different" for Humanoids After 100 Years of False Starts

(58:45) Jonathan Hurst: When Do Robots Outnumber Humans on the Factory Floor?

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(0:00) Bestie intros!

(0:18) The fight to save open source AI: Kimi K3 panic, Anthropic/OpenAI regulatory capture

(27:38) Anthropic/OpenAI historic growth rates, China's long game

(48:29) Anthropic's $1.5B piracy settlement and the great IP theft hypocrisy

(1:07:12) Google and Tesla stocks tank on surging AI capex

(1:17:19) Socialism Corner: "Evictions = Violence" and the threat to private property rights

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Intro Music Credit:

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Intro Video Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/kimi-k3?intelligence=artificial-analysis-intelligence-index#intelligence-comparisons

https://www.axios.com/2026/07/20/ai-us-china-open-source-kimi

https://www.wired.com/story/the-white-house-is-trying-to-figure-out-what-to-do-about-chinese-ai

https://x.com/mkratsios47/status/2079933645888880708

https://polymarket.com/event/us-government-bans-an-open-source-ai-model-in-2026-20260703221501747

https://fortune.com/2025/01/29/deepseek-openais-what-is-distillation-david-sacks

https://stratechery.com/2026/whos-afraid-of-chinese-models

https://x.com/CommerceGov/status/2080341953086886387

https://x.com/tickerplus/status/2080123562560504240

https://blog.tickertrends.io/p/anthropic-vs-openai-arr-tracking

https://x.com/sama/status/2077817060068057493

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-judge-approves-anthropics-15-billion-settlement-copyright-lawsuit-2026-07-20

https://www.anthropic.com/news/detecting-and-preventing-distillation-attacks

https://techstartups.com/2026/07/22/nearly-200-silicon-valley-startups-urge-trump-not-to-ban-chinese-ai-models-warn-it-could-kill-innovation

https://x.com/typesfast/status/2080339052398891244

https://www.thefp.com/p/why-new-york-city-has-50000-ghost

(0:00) Bubble talk: Comparing today's AI market to the dot-com bubble

(7:50) AI's real-world limits: why enterprise AI is harder than expected

(16:38) Transitioning to an AI-First Workspace

(21:26) Health & AI: self-directed healthcare and biometric data

(24:30) Politics, wealth tax, and AI as a truth-seeking force

(35:12) Knicks & Sports Talk

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AppLovin Ads — AppLovin's AI advertising platform reaches over a billion daily active users across mobile games. Full-screen video ads with a 35-second median watch time. Advertisers are profitably spending hundreds of thousands of dollars a day and advertiser access is still in closed beta. The window is open at https://applovin.com/ALLIN

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(0:00) Bestie intros!

(1:32) New AI regulatory proposal: DeepMind's Demis Hassabis proposes FINRA-type body

(20:01) Stripe, Block, and Advent offer $53B to acquire PayPal

(37:51) Apple sues OpenAI, alleging stolen trade secrets

(42:49) Grok Build data leak, AI data privacy, Tokenmaxxing update, Mira Murati's new model

(59:53) NY bans datacenters, becoming first state to enact a moratorium

(1:22:57) Science Corner: New data on reversing aging!

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Intro Music Credit:

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Intro Video Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://x.com/chamath/status/2077502408528212144

https://x.com/demishassabis/status/2076957440109625718

https://x.com/satyanadella/status/2076323181154230284

https://x.com/Jason/status/2076231055443440105

https://x.com/SquawkCNBC/status/2077741908391031246

https://thinkingmachines.ai/news/introducing-inkling

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/15/inside-anthropics-state-by-state-plan-to-ratchet-up-ai-rules-00998415

https://x.com/politico/status/2077315780144996633

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/1978145266269077891

https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/stripe-advent-offer-buy-paypal-more-than-53-billion-sources-say-2026-07-15

https://www.tipranks.com/news/the-fly/block-contributing-to-equity-for-paypal-takeover-bid-cnbc-says-thefly-news

https://9to5mac.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/6/2026/07/Apple-Inc.-v.-Liu-et-al.pdf

https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/ai/articles/apple-lawsuit-threatens-openais-hardware-215438163.html

https://x.com/markgurman/status/2076306380583997665

https://www.engadget.com/2216186/elon-musk-bought-a-gas-turbine-company

https://x.com/Reuters/status/2076957424339050839

https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/2077596563380072694

https://x.com/teddyschleifer/status/2077606887055306879

https://openai.com/index/prc-linked-influence-operations-ai-debates

https://www.politico.com/news/2026/06/10/openai-china-ai-data-centers-report-00957612

https://trends.google.com/explore?q=GMO%2C%2Fm%2F0dkz0z&date=2010-01-01%202026-07-15&geo=US

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-026-75141-2

(0:00) Former Intel CEO Pat Gelsinger joins Jason!

(1:41) What Went Wrong at Intel

(15:19) Why a Taiwan Blockade Would Cripple the US Economy

(25:00) Lovable's Anton Osika: One Million New Apps a Week

(33:38) How Lovable is Bringing Down Builder Costs

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And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) ElevenLabs' $600M ARR Ramp, 600 Employees & Life Without PMs

(15:34) Celebrity Voice Deals, Deepfake Impersonation & Racing OpenAI and Anthropic

(31:42) Legora's Hypergrowth, Disrupting Law Firms & the Billable Hour

(42:31) LexisNexis Decline, Legal Data Moats & Legora's Narrow AI Models

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Oracle powers AI at every scale—from frontier labs to enterprise production. Your data. Leading models. No lock-in. One platform, architected for AI. Built for business. Visit https://www.oracle.com/artificial-intelligence/ai-experience/?source=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&SC=:ex:sn:::::AllIn&pcode=

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And a special thank you to Raise Summit for hosting us in Paris

(0:00) Bestie intros: Brad Gerstner fills in for Friedberg!

(2:58) OpenAI vs Anthropic IPOs: Why it matters who goes first, what they learned from the SpaceX IPO, the unlimited TAM of intelligence

(27:39) The open source decision, Meta's new model, Zuck's price war, AI duopoly

(54:29) CCP considering putting export controls on Chinese models, is open source ending in China?

(1:03:09) Trump Accounts launch, getting young Americans bought back into capitalism

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Intro Music Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://polymarket.com/event/ipos-before-2027

https://x.com/thejessezhang/status/2074154325933424861

https://x.com/praveenTweets/status/2074605343439810922

https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074802778074124434

https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074814752174522857

https://x.com/brian_armstrong/status/2070670644577280109

https://x.com/andyfang/status/2074252174226493584

https://x.com/nikesharora/status/2074630732019036574

https://x.com/finkd/status/2075218444056707458

https://x.com/alighodsi/status/2074996561306955958

https://blog.nicolasmeridjen.com/en/blog/2026-04-03-alibaba-qwen-closed-source-end-of-open-weight

https://www.chinatalk.media/p/chinas-ai-companies-are-going-closed

https://www.reuters.com/world/beijing-is-looking-curbing-overseas-access-chinas-top-ai-models-sources-say-2026-07-07

https://x.com/KurtSupeCPA/thread/2074817292550984010

(0:00) The AI Buildout: Datacenters Bigger Than Cities (Andrew Feldman)

(1:50) Reasoning, Inference, and Breaking Moore's Law

(16:28) Open Source, AI Sovereignty, and the Road to AGI

(40:54) The Innovation Behind Generative Video (Robin Rombach)

(47:31) Martin Scorsese, Robots, and the Future of Hollywood IP

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(0:00) Bestie intros: Happy Fourth of July!

(0:21) Palantir-Nvidia open source deal, Alex Karp's CNBC "Crashout"

(33:52) Update on the AI jobs debate

(50:24) Anthropic's Fable 5 available after export restrictions lifted

(59:06) SCOTUS upholds birthright citizenship, striking Trump's EO

(1:21:30) Newsom's "balanced budget" and how California's dire fiscal situation could break apart the Union

Apply for Summit 2026:

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Intro Music Credit:

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Intro Video Credit:

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Referenced in the show:

https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/palantir-secure-ai-us-agencies-nemotron-open-models

https://x.com/PalantirTech/status/2072326189079757277

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/anthropic-blindsides-business-partners?rc=f8fu8f

https://www.google.com/finance/quote/FIG:NYSE

https://x.com/DavidSacks/status/2072673187666813226

https://x.com/chamath/status/2072665199786561713

https://x.com/quxiaoyin/status/2072428278976074115

https://x.com/chamath/status/2072390507628540213

https://www.justice.gov/usao-cdca/pr/chinese-national-pleads-guilty-running-birth-tourism-scheme-helped-aliens-give-birth-us

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/democratic-socialist-melat-kiros-defeats-longtime-house-incumbent-in-colorado-primary

https://x.com/GavinNewsom/status/2070496029280276571

https://www.ocregister.com/2026/02/27/these-charts-show-how-californias-budget-has-skyrocketed

https://x.com/JeanneIves/status/2072165726526308719

https://polymarket.com/event/democratic-presidential-nominee-2028

(0:00) Nate Silver joins the pod!

(10:02) California's ballot counting problem: Raman's late-mail surge, ballot harvesting claims, and why the US counts slower than India

(25:18) Democrats' three-way civil war: The left, the abundance libs, and Newsom's "resistance lib" base

(34:48) The winning 2028 playbook: Anti-oligarch messaging, why young men want control, and immigrants fleeing the Dems

(45:48) How algorithmic social media entrenches polarization: Elon's X, filter bubbles, and the death of the chronological feed

(50:01) 2026 midterm predictions: 85-90% Dem House takeover, Senate toss-up, and the Iran/gas price wildcard

(55:20) Newsom is collapsing in polls: Nate's 2028 Dem bet is AOC

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