(0:00) The Besties welcome John and Patrick Collison!
(4:28) Stripe's business evolution: $1T in volume/year, stablecoins, challenging the Visa/Mastercard duopoly, publishing economic indicators
(20:31) Jamie Dimon's leaked rant on remote work and bureaucracy
(34:22) DOGE for Defense: Trump ordered the Pentagon to look at cutting the defense budget by 8%/year over the next five years
(43:51) Crypto Corner: Milei's Memecoin embarrassment
(1:00:18) John and Patrick break down the Arc Institute and its new Evo 2 AI model
(1:18:04) Grok 3 takes the LLM lead, lessons learned from Elon's Colossus scale up
(1:30:22) Science Corner: Asteroid update
(1:35:42) Why Stripe hasn't gone public yet, despite great metrics
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Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/Zigmanfreud/status/1890202488596492620
https://www.coworker.org/petitions/professional-dignity
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2025/02/19/trump-pentagon-budget-cuts
https://www.amazon.com/Boyd-Fighter-Pilot-Who-Changed/dp/0316796883
https://blogs.nvidia.com/blog/evo-2-biomolecular-ai
https://artificialanalysis.ai/models/grok-3
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1891721991444447343
https://www.amazon.com/Henry-J-Kaiser-Builder-American/dp/0292742266
(0:00) The Besties intro Naval Ravikant!
(9:07) Naval reflects on his thoughtful tweets and reputation
(14:17) Unique views on parenting
(23:20) Sacks joins to talk AI: JD Vance's speech in Paris, Techno-Optimists vs Doomers
(1:11:06) Tariffs and the US economic experiment
(1:21:15) Thomson Reuters wins first major AI copyright decision on behalf of rights holders
(1:35:35) Chamath's dinner with Bryan Johnson, sleep hacks
(1:45:09) Tulsi Gabbard, RFK Jr. confirmed
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Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/naval/status/1002103360646823936
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1889349078657716680
https://www.cnn.com/2021/06/09/politics/kamala-harris-foreign-trip/index.html
https://x.com/JDVance/status/1889640434793910659
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QCNYhuISzxg
https://www.wired.com/story/thomson-reuters-ai-copyright-lawsuit
https://admin.bakerlaw.com/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/ECF-1-Complaint.pdf
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xTGNNLPyMI
https://polymarket.com/event/which-trump-picks-will-be-confirmed?tid=1739471077488
(0:00) The Besties intro Antonio Gracias!
(3:11) DOGE takes on USAID
(31:44) Sacks breaks in to talk USAID
(34:00) Sacks explains what he's working on: Crypto/AI Frameworks
(46:41) The Democratic Party's shrinking base
(52:33) US Sovereign Wealth Fund + Breaking DOGE/Tax News
(1:09:07) Google to spend $75B on AI buildout in 2025, future of work in the age of AI
(1:23:21) Science Corner: GLP-1 macro study
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Referenced in the show:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Agency_for_International_Development
https://www.usa.gov/agencies/u-s-agency-for-international-development
https://www.usaspending.gov/agency/agency-for-international-development?fy=2024
https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/02/at-usaid-waste-and-abuse-runs-deep
https://www.usaspending.gov/recipient/fa0cefae-7cfb-881d-29c3-1bd39cc6a49e-C/2024
https://www.bbc.co.uk/mediaaction/about/funding
https://x.com/susancrabtree/status/1884034727046226317
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1886627783138316442
https://x.com/Jason/status/1885082871074886110
https://x.com/anc_aesthetics/status/1886176995433763188
https://x.com/wikileaks/status/1887501752213409919
https://x.com/pm_viktororban/status/1887224829352280505
https://x.com/daily_romania/status/1887883017550430435
https://x.com/kanekoathegreat/status/1887261736618893636
https://x.com/davidsacks47/status/1886878016183394403
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2025/02/02/rahm-emanuel-democrats-voters-kitchen-table
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_DOGE_Service
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1887585824218509380
https://fedscoop.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/5/2025/02/show_temp.pdf
https://abc.xyz/assets/a3/91/6d1950c148fa84c7d699abe05284/2024q4-alphabet-earnings-release.pdf
(0:00) The Besties intro Travis Kalanick!
(2:11) Travis breaks down the future of food and the state of CloudKitchens
(13:34) Sacks breaks in!
(15:38) DeepSeek panic: What's real, training innovation, China, impact on markets and the AI industry
(50:14) US vs China in AI, the Singapore backdoor
(1:01:51) OpenAI reportedly in talks to raise ~$40B with Masa as the lead investor
(1:10:37) DOGE's first 10 days
(1:25:13) Future of Self Driving: Uber, Waymo, Tesla
(1:38:04) Fed holds rates steady, how DOGE can impact rate cuts
(1:44:17) Fatal DC plane crash
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Referenced in the show:
https://github.com/deepseek-ai/DeepSeek-R1/blob/main/DeepSeek_R1.pdf
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/27/nvidia-sheds-almost-600-billion-in-market-cap-biggest-drop-ever.html
https://x.com/shrihacker/status/1884414667503853749
https://x.com/balajis/status/1884975064283812270
https://www.fool.com/earnings/call-transcripts/2025/01/29/meta-platforms-meta-q4-2024
earnings-call-transcri
https://x.com/mrexits/status/1885017400308806121
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/why-distillation-has-become-the-scariest-wordfor-ai-companies-aa146ae3
https://techcrunch.com/2024/12/27/why-deepseeks-new-ai-model-thinks-its-chatgpt
https://x.com/rauchg/status/1875627666113740892
https://www.ft.com/content/a0dfedd1-5255-4fa9-8ccc-1fe01de87ea6
https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1883753899255046301
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jevons_paradox
https://x.com/pitdesi/status/1883192498274873513
https://x.com/rihardjarc/status/1884263865703358726
https://x.com/austen/status/1884444298130674000
https://x.com/america/status/1884372526144598056
https://x.com/DOGE/status/1884396041786524032
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD
https://x.com/Jason/status/1884671945800573018
https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-starts-term-weak-approval-rating/story?id=118146633
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/15/cpi-inflation-december-2024-.html
(0:00) Ray Dalio joins Friedberg!
(0:50) The current US fiscal situation
(6:23) Breaking down "The Big Debt Cycle," a potential US debt spiral, and the impact on real wealth
(24:54) USD vs other currencies and assets, best hedges against the dollar
(33:20) Portfolio construction, how China increases risk for US AI companies, why this market reminds Ray of 1998-1999
(41:45) How the US can avoid a debt crisis
(53:29) DOGE, Trump, and AI's greatest risk
(1:05:31) Chances of conflict between the US and China
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Referenced in the show:
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-debt-to-gdp
https://www.crfb.org/press-releases/treasury-confirms-calendar-year-2024-deficit-tops-20-trillion
https://www.cbo.gov/publication/61172
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL
https://www.jpmorgan.com/insights/outlook/economic-outlook/fed-meeting-september-2024
https://www.chathamfinancial.com/insights/fomc-recap-december-2024
(0:00) The Besties intro Thomas Laffont!
(6:22) Behind the scenes: Inauguration Weekend recap!
(15:58) Biggest takeaways from DC during the Inauguration
(31:38) Trump Executive Action breakdown
(33:39) TikTok's grace period extended, valuing the business, US new equity strategy?
(57:01) Jan 6th pardons, birthright citizenship
(1:09:49) Stargate: $500B AI investment, is Masa the GOAT?, bull case for OpenAI
(1:23:41) How electricity production capacity plays into the global AI race
(1:36:20) Netflix's stock rise correlates with some alarming societal trends
(1:47:40) BREAKING: AI/Crypto Czar David Sacks joins to discuss the President's three new EOs
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Referenced in the show:
https://x.com/dontcallmeraylo/status/1882444994264629402
https://x.com/craigkellyXXX/status/1882170281722339700
https://www.wdsu.com/article/donald-trump-executive-orders-inauguration-parade/63486993
https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/21/us/trump-birthright-citizenship.html
https://constitution.congress.gov/constitution/amendment-14
https://avalon.law.yale.edu/18th_century/fed74.asp
https://x.com/OpenAI/status/1881830103858172059
https://x.com/sama/status/1882106524090482701
https://x.com/GavinSBaker/status/1882081746877063677
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1881923570458304780
https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1882303826214162580
https://x.com/satyanadella/status/1882340818289307954
https://x.com/GregKamradt/status/1881762305152872654
https://x.com/chamath/status/1881773205498876255
https://x.com/documentingbtc/status/1882530869010989287
https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/489251-in-this-age-in-this-country-public-sentiment-is-everything
(0:00) House Whip Tom Emmer on Trump's political talent, the Biden conspiracy, taking back the Democratic party, immigration, the role of Whip
(33:53) California Rep. Eric Swalwell on where Democrats went wrong, how to rebrand the party, TikTok ban, and more
(1:08:01) California Rep. Ro Khanna on reforming the Democratic party, Bob Iger as LA Mayor, CA Leadership, TikTok ban
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(0:00) Besties intro Senator Ted Cruz; history of the "Come and take it" flag
(2:21) Texas vs. California: how to approach building and entrepreneurship
(10:25) Thoughts on immigration, serving in the Senate, over-politicization
(16:55) How to create a bipartisan consensus on immigration, increasing prosperity through opportunity
(23:54) How Sen. Cruz would approach Trump's first two weeks of his second term
(29:02) DOGE's two major challenges, unlimited Congressional terms, ideology over party, the great political flip
(35:22) Trump's strategy on Greenland/Denmark, Panama Canal, and Canada
(42:45) Thoughts on Senate confirmation hearings
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(0:00) The Besties welcome Mark Pincus!
(3:53) Mark's background
(6:02) How Mark got red-pilled for Trump, maintaining friendships despite political differences
(23:21) LA Wildfires update: Newsom's EOs, market impact of price controls
(51:32) Congestion pricing in NYC, fixing broken cities
(1:08:33) TikTok ban: origin and potential outcomes
(1:19:15) MBA hiring downturn
(1:34:37) Conspiracy Corner: Mark's take on UFOs and UAPs!
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://nypost.com/2024/11/04/us-news/tech-billionaire-mark-pincus-reveals-hes-voting-for-trump
https://x.com/TheTechnXMedia/status/1878459564980392410
https://www.gov.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2025/01/EO-N-4-25-Rebuilding-Final-signed.pdf
https://x.com/MayorOfLA/status/1878630125786566664
https://congestionreliefzone.mta.info
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/13/nyregion/congestion-pricing-nyc.html
https://x.com/friedberg/status/1652334973586915328
https://x.com/markpinc/status/1878575249505333606
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T72DfPEBn0A&t=29s
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/harvard-mba-employment-rate-job-hunt-difficulty-addfc3ec
(0:00) The Besties welcome Cyan Banister!
(9:16) Reacting to the LA wildfires: broken incentives, leadership failures, lessons learned
(36:51) Insurance issues, rebuilding headwinds, reclaiming the government
(59:44) Zuck goes full free speech, fires third-party fact-checkers, opts for Community Notes model
(1:20:19) Nvidia goes consumer at CES: market cap impact, most interesting vertical
(1:34:49) Why Trump wants Greenland
(1:40:05) Conspiracy Corner: Who built the pyramids?
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_SQ_myzmV_Q
https://www.cnrfc.noaa.gov/awipsProducts/RNORR4RSA.php
https://x.com/JonVigliotti/status/1877020919475884110
https://x.com/FearedBuck/status/1877355797245514085
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vKJ5WeBc7Us
https://x.com/CrazyyHub/status/1823574726738092402
https://www.ksbw.com/article/california-fire-evacuation-maps/63382651
https://x.com/shaunmmaguire/status/1877366727547433382
https://x.com/WorldTimesWT/status/1876887200526111017
https://x.com/ericabbenante/status/1877207054105886836
https://x.com/laurapowellesq/status/1877143625588682940
https://x.com/jeremykauffman/status/1877128641802285064
https://x.com/deb8rr/status/1877539354802876576
https://x.com/Jason/status/1877183155821494513
https://about.fb.com/news/2025/01/meta-more-speech-fewer-mistakes
https://www.americanrhetoric.com/speeches/PDFFiles/Mark-Zuckerberg-Letter-on-Govt-Censorship.pdf
https://x.com/townhallcom/status/1876684277787873397
https://www.nvidia.com/en-us/project-digits
https://polymarket.com/markets/creators/all-in
(0:00) The Besties welcome Gavin Baker and recap ski week!
(5:38) Biggest Political Winner
(9:26) Biggest Political Loser
(17:34) Biggest Business Winner
(32:43) Biggest Business Loser
(46:54) Biggest Business Deal
(57:04) Most Contrarian Belief
(1:12:59) Best Performing Asset
(1:22:56) Worst Performing Asset
(1:30:19) Most Anticipated Trend
(1:38:59) Most Anticipated Media
(1:43:03) Super Predictions
(1:46:50) Bonus: Drones, UFOs, and more
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Intro Music Credit:
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Referenced in the show:
https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-go2
https://shop.unitree.com/products/unitree-g1
https://a16zcrypto.com/posts/article/state-of-crypto-report-2024
https://x.com/chamath/status/1873144394100187263
https://polymarket.com/event/will-openai-become-a-for-profit-business-before-april-2025