In the final episode of Oil Insights for the year, host Harry Tchilinguirian, along with the Onyx Research team—Martha Dowding, Vincent Wu, Will Cunliffe, and Edward Hayden-Briffett—recap the key drivers of the 2024 oil market and explore their implications for 2025. 

Topics include geopolitical risks, divergent global oil demand forecasts, OPEC+ production strategies, and macroeconomic shifts like monetary policy easing and China’s economic challenges. The team also discusses Donald Trump's re-election as U.S. president and its impact on global markets and oil. Tune in for insights on the global oil balance and what to expect in 2025.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page.

Live from Chongqing, China! Jorge dives into the latest oil market recovery as prices edge towards $75. He breaks down the Top 10 Reasons Why Markets Have Turned Back, highlighting key global trends and insights. From China’s increased quotas and state company purchases to Saudi Arabia’s strategic price cuts and the UAE’s surprising production cuts, Jorge explores the driving forces behind this market shift.
 
He also touch on China’s economic rebound, Europe’s rate cuts fuelling crude demand, and the evolving sentiment around global energy policies. Plus, find out why changes in Germany and France’s political landscapes might play a role in shaping future markets.

This episode aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
In US data, inflation is trending higher, pushing both yields and the dollar higher, and this is a definite warning signal for 2025. Job postings are continuing to fall, but small business sentiment is surging leading up to Trump's inauguration. Equity investors are looking the most bullish ever, as Nasdaq reaches new all-time highs.
 
In China, yields are trending aggressively lower, not helped by further weakness in house prices and weaker than expected retail sales, but EV sales are surging. In Europe, France has been downgraded by Moody's to Aa3, and UK GDP unexpectedly contracted. UK-European relations will continue to face trade hurdles.
 
Bitcoin is breaking out even higher, touching $106,500. Meanwhile, Brent price remains in a narrow range and silver is looking for support.
 
Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: US retail sales
Wednesday: Federal Reserve meeting (-24bp priced)
Thursday: BOJ (+4bp priced), existing home sales
Friday: PCE inflation data

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time. James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.
 
This week, we discuss falling global bond yields as both American and Canadian unemployment saw increases, while ISM Services PMI surprisingly fell sharply. Data over the weekend also highlighted continued deflation in China, while Japanese salaries saw a record gain with the BOJ expected to hike on the 19th of December. In Europe, the French political turmoil continues, while German industrial production showed unexpected weakness. Meanwhile the UK data also missed across the board, PMI, retail sales, and business confidence data all came in lower than expectation. We discuss these impacts on the markets highlighting key charts and trends.
 
Bitcoin is seeing volatility around $100,00, and Altcoins are surging. Meanwhile, Brent volatility continues to fall amongst unrest in Syria. James and James also discuss gold and copper prices.
 
Key events for the week include:
Wednesday: U.S. CPI, BOC (-48bp)
Thursday: U.S. PPI, ECB (-27bp), SNB (-36bp)

Manny and James dive into the dynamics of crude oil and refined product markets as the year winds down. They analyse Brent spreads, distillates, and gasoline demand trends, highlighting bearish sentiment for next year balanced by current storage economics. They discuss refinery margins, potential impacts of cold weather on markets, and trading strategies for Brent spreads and gasoline heading into summer. With an eye on OPEC+ actions, freight dynamics, and shifting demand between regions, they weigh the implications of a relatively calm market environment.

In this special mini episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) react live to the collapse in Brent flat price as the OPEC+ meeting convenes.

 We've seen a loss of over $2/bbl in the last 24 hours and OPEC+'s delay of barrels returning by 3 months, while some countries continue to exceed their OPEC+ production limits. 

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 3rd December, 2024 at 10:30am GMT.  In this special edition episode, "The Watchers" (Director, Benchmarks, Jorge Montepeque and Group Head of Research, Harry Tchilinguirian) discuss the oil market over the past week.  

Harry and Jorge take a critical look at the dynamics surrounding OPEC+'s upcoming meeting that's been delayed. They unpack the underlying tension and dissent among member states leading up to the meeting, as well as what to expect from the meeting and current challenges facing OPEC+.

Harry and Jorge debate how OPEC+ will act should we enter a trade war in 2025: Will they reduce production, or revert to a market-orientated approach? Finally, they give their energy demand and Brent price forecasts for the rest of the year.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. 

This episode of Macro Mondays aired live at 12:30pm UK Time as James Brodie and James Todd look at the previous weeks Macro events and to the week ahead.

This week, the S&P 500 hit a new all-time high and is trending higher overall. US consumer confidence and US Black Friday online sales hit a highs as well, and stock market optimism has soared. On the other hand, US new home sales fell 17.3% while US homes for sale continued to trend high. US debt looms and the yield suggests a dollar top is near.

We saw mixed Chinese data over the weekend, with record monthly outflows from major Chinese ETFs and bond yield the lowest in decades. Germany October retail sales fell, and the Eurozone November CPI inflation rose 2.3% Y/Y. Brent volatility and gold both fell.

Key events for the week include: 
Monday: ISM manufacturing PMI
Tuesday: JOLTS job opening data
Wednesday: ADP employment data, ISM services, FED's Powell speaks
Thursday: Initial jobless claims data
Friday: November jobs report, consumer confidence

In this episode of The Officials, Jorge, Harry, and Will delve into a range of critical topics shaping energy markets and global economics. They begin with the impact of potential tariff escalations in North America, discussing how proposed policies may affect energy prices and trade dynamics, with a focus on U.S. relationships with Canada and Mexico.

The discussion transitions to OPEC’s struggles with production quotas and internal disagreements, as well as the broader implications of supply dynamics and leakage on global oil markets. Insights from Asia reveal intriguing shifts, particularly in China, where corporate bond issuance and strategic energy stockpiles are reshaping the landscape.

We take a closer look at Europe, highlighting alarming trends in industrial decline, employment cuts, and surging debt issuance. The team also explores how these challenges are influencing energy demand and the balance of global production.

Finally, the team analyses Russia’s economic turbulence and China’s surprising economic resilience, offering a comprehensive overview of how geopolitical and macroeconomic factors are intersecting in unpredictable ways.

Connect with The Officials on LinkedIn:

Jorge Montepeque: https://www.linkedin.com/in/jorge-montepeque-38410bb6/

Will Cunliffe: https://www.linkedin.com/in/will-cunliffe-45899a182/

Harry Tchilinguirian: https://www.linkedin.com/in/tchiling/

This episode of Oil Insights was recorded on 26th November, 2024 at 11am GMT. Onyx Research Associates Vincent Wu and Mita Chaturvedi join Group Head of Research Harry Tchilinguirian to discuss price action and major events in the oil market over the past week. 

Following Trump’s re-election, the oil markets are bracing for potential policy shifts, including proposed tariffs and energy production increases. Harry, Mita, and Vincent explore the price outlook, geopolitical developments from Ukraine to the Middle East, and technical signals hinting at future market moves.

The team also provide an in-depth analysis of the gasoil/diesel market, examining seasonal trends, supply tightness, and price support factors across Europe and Asia. In this week's "Crystal Ball Moment," Mita shares her forecast for Brent as 2024 draws to a close. They also discuss potential market movements with the Thanksgiving holiday coming up at the end of the week.

We’d love to hear from you! If you’d like to get involved with our podcast, please leave a comment on this video on our YouTube page. 

You can also listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Music, or Google Play. 

This week brought a flurry of critical developments, with Scott Bessent named as Treasury Secretary, signaling potential shifts in U.S. fiscal policy. Known for his bond market expertise, Bessent’s appointment caused gold prices to dip and led to fresh buying of bonds with 10-year yields falling 7bp on Monday's open. Meanwhile, Bitcoin hit an all-time high of $99,500, reflecting growing crypto optimism under the new administration.
 
In economic data, the U.S. saw mixed PMI numbers, with services surging to 57 (est 55) while manufacturing stagnated at 48.8 (est 48.8). Unemployment trends raised concerns, with continuing claims rising to a three-year high. However, U.S. corporate bond spreads hit record lows, pointing to potential bubble risks.
 
European data continues to disappoint, with German and French PMIs remaining weak. The Eurozone 5yr5yr forward inflation swap fell to 2%, sparking discussions of deflationary pressures. Meanwhile, UK retail sales dropped, and CPI rose to 2.3%, stirring market concerns.

Key events for the week include:
Tuesday: Fed minutes
Wednesday: U.S. PCE price index, Q3 GDP, Durable goods orders
Thursday: Eurozone inflation, Canadian GDP, Thanksgiving holiday
Friday: U.S. PMIs, Consumer sentiment, Eurozone services PMI, UK retail sales
Saturday: Chinese manufacturing and services PMI data
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