AJ Giannone, the chief investment officer of Allio Capital Management, joins the podcast to discuss why high yield and private credit present compelling opportunities for retail investors — despite the apparently advanced state of the economic cycle.

This podcast was recorded on Monday, March 17, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers the very next day. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Not investment advice! Do your own research, make your own decisions.

Content Highlights

• • High yield debt: this does not appear to be a good time to invest in this asset class, especially through listed funds. Or is it? (1:18);

  • The iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) is one way convenient and low-cost way for retail investors to access this asset class (5:05);

  • Another iShares product, iShares BB Rated Corporate Bond ETF (HYBB) is a so-called ‘smart beta’ approach… (7:43);

  • The guest is not particularly concerned about a recession, or at least not the performance of high yield should one come to pass. Even then, the default rate should not increase dramatically (9:51);

  • Private credit is another niche corner of the credit market that has recently been open to retail investors via ETFs VPC and PCMM, among others (12:39);

  • Background on the guest (22:52);

  • Some of the macro signals he watches and what they are telling us right now (28:01);

  • There is still upside in European equities (33:54);

  • What about the US market? (38:19)

More Information on the Guest

• • Website: AllioCapital.com

Robert Smallbone, aka The Contrarian Capitalist, joins the podcast to discuss his view that recession fears are overblown and a fresh "blow-off top" is coming. This podcast episode was recorded on Thursday, March 13, 2025 and made available to premium subscribers less than 24 hours later! More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• Bearishness appears to have taken over markets. The S&P 500 just entered a correction. The guest is not buying that narrative (1:16);
• The uncertainty created by the new US president may be intentional to lower bond yields -- and interest rates (4:15);
• European and UK stock indexes should have more upside ahead (7:21);
• Background on the guest (12:46);
• The view on gold and silver (16:11);
• Crypto discussion (18:40).

More From the Guest

• Substack
• X: @ContrarianRob88

Scott Colbert, chief economist at Commerce Trust in St. Louis, rejoins the podcast to discuss why the economy can continue to expand even with the onset of Trump tariffs. This podcast episode was recorded on March 6, 2025 and was made available to premium subscribers exclusively the same day it was recorded. Information on premium membership is avaliable here. Content Highlights

• The "Trump tariff barrage" will lead to slower growth, lower economic activity, and higher inflation -- in the short term (1:51);
• Over the medium term however, tariffs should not trigger a recession, nor will they have a lasting impact on prices aka inflation (6:24);
• Labor markets: Immigration has ground to a halt, but people are aging out of the workforce. Government layoffs notwithstanding, that should result in a wash (10:23);
• Ultimately the economic cycle is half way through its growth stage, which should run for another four years. However this won't be great for growth stocks like the 'magnificent 7'... (15:14);
• Fixed income is suddenly an attractive asset class and international stocks have tailwinds as well... (18:03);
• The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tracker is suddenly predicting a negative print for first-quarter GDP. There are logical reasons for this (24:23).

More on the Guest

• Website: CommerceTrustCompany.com;
• Published insights from Commerce Trust Co.

Phil Pecsok of Anacapa Advisors rejoins the podcast to discuss the return of pessimism to the market and the economic and market repercussions of Trump's various policies.

This podcast episode was recorded in two segments, the second on Feb. 24 with the express purpose of discussing with the then-nascent sell-off and Nvidia (NVDA) earnings. More information is available here.

This podcast deviates from the usual format by including the guest's first-hand account of the LA wildfires. This admittedly has only limited relation to investing, but was kept mostly intact for human interest reasons. Listeners can skip past these segments, identified below. Content Highlights

• Walmart (WMT) earnings ushered in a fresh round of selling in stocks that has yet to reverse (1:05)
• The concerns raised by Walmart earnings are legitimate, but stocks should still rise this year (5:02);
• The guest, a resident of the Pacific Palisades, recounts his harrowing experience with the LA fires (11:25);
• Economic repercussions of the fires (14:32);
• Trump will ultimately be good for the economy and for markets. Fade any Trump-generated market panic (27:51);
• Why you shouldn't buy defense contractor stocks yet (37:18);
• The outlook for inflation is not great. This will likely keep the Fed from cutting rates (41:52).

For more on the guest and his firm, visit the website AnacapaAdvisors.com.

Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.   This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);
• Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);
• DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);
• So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);
• One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);
• The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);
• What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);
• Background on the guest (33:02);
• The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);

More Information on the Guest

• Website: VerdadCap.com;
• Twitter/X: @VerdadCap.

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets. Content Highlights

• Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
• There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
• The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
• Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
• Background on the guest (23:28);
• Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07);
• The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28);
• Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.

This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

• The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47);
• Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57);
• How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30);
• Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02);
• What about tariffs? (16:22);
• Background on the guest (20:36);
• The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: MainStreetEconomics.org;
• YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762;
• LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics;
• Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon;
• Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics;
• Facebook: MainStreetEconomics.

Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights

• Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08);
• Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58);
• The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46);
• What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03);
• In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00);
• Where are the best opportunities? (19:51);
• Background on the guest (28:39);
• How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).

Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.   This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18);
• Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01);
• What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31);
• Background on the guest (26:50);
• Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59);
• Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)

For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

More From the Guest

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.