Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.   This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18);
• Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01);
• What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31);
• Background on the guest (26:50);
• Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59);
• Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)

For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

More From the Guest

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights

• What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
• About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
• Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
• Background on the guest (23:05);
• If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
• Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

More From the Guest

• Website: AmCiv.com;
• X: @FlipPidot;
• Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights

• Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
• China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);
• There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)
• The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
• Don't fade the AI story (14:20);
• The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
• Background on the guest (22:30);
• Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
• Election discussion (28:17).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: TgMacro.com;
• Twitter/X: @TgMacro;
• Substack: @TgMacro.

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering.

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Content Highlights

• The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
• Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);
• Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
• Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
• Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);
• What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
• Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
• Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com;
• X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here. NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.   Content Highlights

• The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37);
• The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
• The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
• How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
• Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31);
• AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
• Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47);
• Background on the guest (28:33);
• Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
• Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AzoriaPartners.com;
• Substack: HeadofMacro.com;
• X: @j_fishback;
• LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners

Colin White of Verecan Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his views on the economy and why he considers the likelihood of a 'soft landing' to have increased...

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Aug. 14, 2024 and made available for premium subscribers the following day. More information on premium subscriptions is avalailable on our Substack page.. Content Highlights

• Economic indicators are pointing to increased chances of a 'soft landing'... (1:10);
• The Federal Reserve (and other central banks) have 'bullets in their gun' in the form of interest rate cuts, should the need arise. Another reason for confidence (3:27);
• Employment numbers are the most important datapoint to watch right now (6:41);
• The Age of Finfluencers and dangers it has wrought (14:32);
• Central banks have a responsibility to act in the best interests of the general public. If they stray from that responsibility, the structure that governs central banks can change (19:29);
• Background on the guest (23:31);
• No, real estate is not always a good investment (34:11);
• AI discussion (37:41).

More on the Guest:

• Website: Verecan.com;
• Podcast: Barenaked Money;
• LinkedIn.

Chad Olivier of Baton Rouge, La.-based The Olivier Group joins the podcast to discuss his view of markets and why he is bullish about bonds and technology stocks.

This podcast episode was recorded July 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium subscriptions is available here. Content Highlights

• The view of the bond market has changed with the Fed (1:18)
• The Olivier Group started adding bond exposure through ETFs in the first quarter and expects to add to it... (3:18);
• The 10-year yield should drop to the 3% range "by this time next year" (4:43);
• Small caps have recovered lately but the guest is less bullish there (9:31);
• Technology stocks are much better positioned than in previous cycles (10:56);
• Municipal bonds may also present an opportunity... (15:41);
• Background on the guest (20:05);
• Oil markets could present another opportunity, especially large cap, dividend-paying companies (23:58);
• The political outlook and its impact on markets (25:51).

For more information on the guest visit the website OlivierGroup.com.

Dana Samuelson, president of the American Gold Exchange, joins the Contrarian Investor Podcast to discuss why gold prices are set up to rally further -- even after a 20% rise so far this year.

This podcast episode was recorded on Friday, July 19. 2024 and made available to premium subscribers the following business day. For information on becoming a premium subscriber -- and the host of other benefits it involves -- visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Gold is trading right near all-time highs. Can there really be more room for upside? (1:48);
• One thing missing from the equation for still higher gold prices is interest rate cuts... (3:36);
• Another thing missing is fear in the market (5:07);
• Gold has rallied 20% so far this year. A Fed rate cut will supply another 10%. $3000/oz. gold is in sight... (8:36);
• What of the argument that there's no tangible use for gold? (11:20);
• Why gold coins are preferable to bars (14:30);
• Background on the guest (19:39);
• Quarters and dimes vintage 1964 are 90% silver (26:40);
• View on digital currencies and Bitcoin. There is a place for it... (33:20);
• How much of one's portfolio should be earmarked for gold and precious metals? (37:15)

More Information on the Guest

• Twitter/X: @DanaSamuelson99;
• LinkedIn: @American-Gold-Exchange-Inc;
• Website: AmerGold.com;
• YouTube: AmericanGoldExchangeAustin.

Darius Foroux, author of the upcoming book 'The Stoic Path to Wealth,' joined the podcast to discuss his, well, stoic approach to investing.

This podcast episode was recorded on Tuesday, June 25, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers the following day -- without ads or announcements. For more information on premium subscriptions, visit our Substack.

Content Highlights

• How interest in philosophy rekindled his interest in investing after the great financial crisis (1:32);
• A brief introduction to stoicism, a 2,300 year-old philosophy that is distinct from cynicism (4:08);
• How to apply this to investing (6:14);
• Isn't investing in indexes just the best way to go? (12:38);
• The '90/10' portfolio allocation: 90% in the S&P 500, 10% in individual stocks (17:24);
• The Dutch Stripe, trades in Amsterdam and on Pink Sheets (18:06);
• Background on the guest (28:54);
• The guest's second individual stock holding. Listeners will have heard about this one (33:01);
• How does a stoic combat FOMO (41:41).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: DariusForoux.com;
• Twitter: @DariusForoux;
• Instagram: @DariusForoux;
• YouTube: @DariusForoux.

Not investment advice.