Dan Rasmussen of Verdad Capital joins the podcast to discuss the dwindling prospects for AI stocks and why investors might want to look outside the US for better returns.   This podcast episode was released to premium subscribers on Monday, Feb. 17, 2025 without ads or announcements. For more information about premium membership options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• AI stocks have been on an incredible run, massively growing profits without much capital spending. That equation has changed... (1:51);
• Tech companies are going from software businesses to manufacturing concerns -- capital- and energy-intensive businesses that simply can't produce the same growth as previous (6:03);
• DeepSeek claims to be able to reduce the cost of AI applications. How does that factor in to the equation? (9:09);
• So if the 'Mag 7' and AI stocks won't drive the market higher, then what will? Where will growth come from? (12:16);
• One place to start is to look for global diversification. Outside the US, stocks are meaningful cheaper... (15:24);
• The guest's book 'The Humble Investor' (21:37);
• What can supply 'edge' in investing? There are some things. Legal ones... (27:10);
• Background on the guest (33:02);
• The guest is a historian by trade. What historical period is perhaps most comparable to the present day? Unfortunately, it looks an awful lot like 'peak bubble'... (36:08);

More Information on the Guest

• Website: VerdadCap.com;
• Twitter/X: @VerdadCap.

Rohit Goel of Breakout Capital joins the podcast to discuss his view that the boom in the US dollar (and in US dollar-denominated assets) will soon give way, to be replaced by a long-awaited bullish cycle in emerging markets. Content Highlights

• Markets have grown accustomed to US dollar dominance and with it a surge in US assets, specifically stocks. That is due for a cyclical reversal (1:00);
• There are three factors supporting US growth. One of them is almost certainly due to run its course (4:43);
• The global economy revolves around the US consumer as driver of growth. But that too can change -- and other markets are better equipped to pick up the slack on their own (9:26);
• Despite all this, the US dollar should maintain its status as reserve currency. However, its dominance is waning (14:55);
• Background on the guest (23:28);
• Big tech stocks have worked very well for over a decade. But things are shifting to eat into their cashflows and there are reasons to believe too much optimism could be priced in... (26:07);
• The trend is for growth to originate elsewhere than US tech... (30:28);
• Discussion of frontier markets (35:33).

The guest requests listeners connect through LinkedIn.

Les Rubin of Main Street Economics joins the podcast to discuss his chief concern facing not just markets and economies, but the world at large: US sovereign debt.

This podcast episode was recorded on Wednesday, Jan. 22, 2025 and released to premium subscribers the same day. Information on premium subscriptions, including the vast benefits, are available on our Substack.

Content Highlights

• The US economy is headed to 'serious problems' and the guest's mission is to educate people to the gravity of the situation (1:47);
• Debt and fiscal deficits are nothing for the US. But its debt/GDP ratios is reaching a breaking point (2:57);
• How soon might the breaking point arrive? (5:30);
• Is there anything from the new Trump administration that might turn the tide? Elon Musk's DOGE program has promise... (11:02);
• What about tariffs? (16:22);
• Background on the guest (20:36);
• The need for more education: not just financial literacy, but economics (23:55).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: MainStreetEconomics.org;
• YouTube: MainStreetEconomics762;
• LinkedIn: Main-Street-Economics;
• Twitter/X: @MainStreetEcon;
• Instagram: @MainStreetEconomics;
• Facebook: MainStreetEconomics.

Farid Guindo of Drill Capital Management joins the podcast to discuss his bullish views on natural gas -- not the commodity itself, necessarily, but its application to meet future energy demand. Content Highlights

• Natural gas as the energy of the future even as prices of the commodity itself plummet (1:08);
• Oil exploration is becoming increasingly difficult, expensive, and risky (2:58);
• The 'John D. Rockefeller moment' for natural gas (5:46);
• What role can nuclear energy play? (16:03);
• In natural gas, there will be winners and losers, however... (18:00);
• Where are the best opportunities? (19:51);
• Background on the guest (28:39);
• How will the new presidential administration (Trump 2.0) impact things? (41:38).

Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager at RiverNorth Capital, joins the podcast to discuss investment opportunities in municipal bonds, specifically through the closed-end fund structure.   This podcast episode was made available to premium subscribers the day after recording and without ads or announcements. To become a premium subscriber, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Quick primer on closed-end funds and their difference with mutual funds and ETFs (1:18);
• Municipal bonds and what to look for there (16:01);
• What kind of yield can investors expect from this asset class? (23:31);
• Background on the guest (26:50);
• Rising interest rates and inflation are certainly a risk for muni bonds, but the risk/reward is set up constructively... (30:59);
• Muni closed-end funds: a contrarian pick (37:28)

For more on the guest, visit the website RiverNorth.com

https://contrarianpod.com/content/podcasts/season6/us-election-black-swans-chances-political-violence/Dr. Mike Blyth of risk services company Sigma7, joins the podcast to discuss 'unknown unknowns' facing next week's US election.

Blyth is a career national security professional, having worked for US and British civil and military operations globally.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 30, 2024 and was made available to premium subscribers that day. To learn about premium subscription options, visit our Substack. Content Highlights

• Background on the guest and why he is qualified to speak of all things national and international security (1:42);
• Main concerns entering the election. External and internal agitators have raised the risk of political violence (4:57);
• Gaming out the various scenarios. Almost all involve violence, especially if former President Donald Trump is not elected (7:26);
• The narrative on social media and elsewhere is consistent with what typically presages violence. "It's a tinderbox. We're waiting for the flame to be lit" (11:26);
• What parts of the economy might be most at risk and which might be more resilient (16:49);
• What about geopolitical risks? (20:42).

For more about the guest, visit the website S7risk.com.

Marc Chapman of Bannockburn Global Forex rejoins the podcast to discuss all things US election and the impact a Trump victory would have on economics and financial markets.

This podcast episode was recorded Monday, Oct. 28, 2024 and was made available for premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. Content Highlights

• The impact of a Trump victory next Tuesday is seen as greater as the impact of a Harris victory. What this means for markets and the economy (2:11);
• What if Trump doesn't win? That has become the contrarian take (3:45);
• How it all might affect Mexico, the US' largest trading partner (5:40);
• The US-Canada-Mexico free trade agreement is up for review next year. Expect more concessions from Mexico regardless of who's in the White House (and Congress) (12:22);
• However the outlook is not all bad for all Mexican securities... (15:40);
• Concerns Trump will try to limit the Federal Reserve's independence (19:38);
• Don't overlook the possibility of a recession early in the next president's term (25:44);
• Trump victory may lead to more mergers and acquisitions (26:50).

More From the Guest

• Website: MarcToMarket.com;
• X: @marcmakingsense.

Flip Pidot, founder of American Civics Exchange, joins the podcast to discuss trends in polling and prediction markets and why these are increasingly pointing to victory for Donald Trump -- and a Republican sweep of Congress.

This podcast episode was recorded on Oct. 22, 2024, and made available for premium subscribers that same day -- without ads or announcements. More information on premium membership options is available on our Substack page. Content Highlights

• What started as a toss-up has quickly moved to resounding victory for Trump (1:38);
• About $40 million-worth of pro-Trump bets have flooded prediction markets in recent weeks (4:55);
• Early vote data is also clearly favoring Trump (12:58);
• Background on the guest (23:05);
• If the outcome of the election is close, either side is likely to immediately challenge the results in court (34:30);
• Fortunately, the guest views the likelihood as remote (40:28)

More From the Guest

• Website: AmCiv.com;
• X: @FlipPidot;
• Prediction/polling aggregator: TheSupermodel.com.

Tony Greer of TG Macro joins the podcast to discuss his bullish view on industrial commodities, especially oil, AI, the upcoming presidential election, and more.

This podcast was recorded on Wednesday, Sept. 25, 2024, and was made available to premium subscribers the next day. More information on premium subscriptions is available on our Substack. There are a few points in this episode where adult language is used. Listener discretion is advised. Content Highlights

• Why energy commodities, precious and base metals are all set up to rally (1:31);
• China's stimulus package boosted industrial metals. The bounce should not be limited to the short term... (4:57);
• There are a number of ways to express the 'long commodities' trade. ETFs may be the simplest... (8:59)
• The bullish case for uranium (10:37);
• Don't fade the AI story (14:20);
• The inevitable cryptocurrency discussion (17:04);
• Background on the guest (22:30);
• Listener question: What's the inflection point for a move higher in industrial commodities? (26:10);
• Election discussion (28:17).

More Information on the Guest

• Website: TgMacro.com;
• Twitter/X: @TgMacro;
• Substack: @TgMacro.

Hear podcast episodes without ads and before regular listeners by subscribing to our premium offering.

Megan Gorman joins the podcast to discuss her book 'All the Presidents' Money; How the Men Who Governed America Governed Their Money,' in an effort to locate the contrarian investors. There are several, led by Gerald Ford. The guest also discusses the investments of year's presidential and vice presidential candidates.

Content Highlights

• The most contrarian investor among US presidents? Gerald Ford, the man who pioneered sitting on corporate boards and the presidential speaker circuit (1:24);
• Perhaps unsurprisingly US presidents were quite conservative with their investments, Ford included... (6:37);
• Many presidential investments were also contrarian by avoiding (individual) public equities (11:04);
• Franklin D. Roosevelt was one of several presidents who entered the White House as wealthy individuals -- and blew some of it by failing to perform basic due diligence (15:51);
• Another oft-overlooked president, Calvin Coolidge, supplies a classic example of mis-timing the market... (21:11);
• What we know about the investments of this year's candidates for president and vice president (25:52);
• Another very unsuccessful investor: Ulysses S. Grant. One of the most successful: George Washington (37:14);
• Presidents probably don't need to own individual stocks. Vice President Kamala Harris exemplifies this (47:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AllThePresidentsMoney.com;
• X: @Megan_E_Gorman.

James Fishback, founder of Azoria Partners, joins the podcast to discuss the Fed's shift in monetary policy, opportunities afforded by another Trump administration, why AI hype is real, and a host of other issues.

This podcast was recorded on Sept. 4 and was being made available to premium subscribers that same day. More information about premium subscriptions is available here. NB: The guest is outspoken on certain political beliefs discussed here. These views are not necessarily shared by the host or the Contrarian Investor Podcast more generally.   Content Highlights

• The Federal Reserve is expect to cut 200 basis points off of interest rates when all is said and done. The reality should fall well short of that measure... (1:37);
• The US is economy growing in aggregate. Pain points are felt among lower socio-economic classes (4:44);
• The major change will not come from a major shift in monetary policy but what happens fiscally, with the November election (9:16);
• How to trade a Republican sweep? There's an acronym: T-R-U-M-P (10:54);
• Many companies have taken advantage of cheap labor supplied by illegal immigration. Their stocks will suffer once this is rolled back... (15:31);
• AI is real. Productivity gains will be massive (17:44);
• Crypto discussion. The best opportunity for bulls may to bet on lower volatility for Bitcoin... (22:47);
• Background on the guest (28:33);
• Azoria's first ETF will be called the Meritocracy Fund. The strategy (33:38);
• Another opportunity: Argentina (43:18)

More Information on the Guest

• Website: AzoriaPartners.com;
• Substack: HeadofMacro.com;
• X: @j_fishback;
• LinkedIn: Azoria-Partners