I explore the truth behind the famous 10,000-hour rule, popularized by Malcolm Gladwell. Today, Prof Alex Edmans uncovers why the rule persists despite its flaws and dives into the psychological biases that make misinformation so believable.

You’ll learn:

Why the 10,000-hour rule isn’t as universal as it seems (feat. insights from Alex Edmans).

How confirmation bias shapes beliefs—from the Atkins diet to Deepwater Horizon. 

The dangers of narrative fallacy in explaining success (feat. 1975 Barry Staw study).

Real-world examples of misinformation, from Belle Gibson’s cancer cure claims to Volkswagen’s diesel scandal.

A simple mental trick to fight confirmation bias and save yourself from misleading ideas.

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Alex’s book May Contain Lies: https://maycontainlies.com/

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Sources: 

Gladwell, M. (2008). Outliers: The story of success. Little, Brown, and Company.

Edmans, A. (2024). May contain lies: How stories, statistics, and studies exploit our biases—and what we can do about it. University of California Press.

Kaplan, Jonas T., Sarah I. Gimbel and Sam Harris (2016): ‘Neural correlates of maintaining one’s political beliefs in the face of counterevidence’, Scientific Reports 6, 39589.

Wong, Nathan Colin (2015): ‘The 10,000-hour rule’, Canadian Urological Journal 9, 299.

Staw, Barry M. (1975): ‘Attribution of the “causes” of performance: a general alternative interpretation of cross-sectional research on organizations’, Organizational Behavior and Human Performance 13, 414–32.

Neil Rackham’s groundbreaking research uncovered what separates skilled negotiators from the average. Drawing insights from real-world negotiation sessions involving union disputes, management decisions, and high-stakes contracts, this episode unpacks the actual behaviour of skilled negotiations. 

You’ll learn:

The specific ways skilled negotiators prepare differently from average negotiators (feat. 48 skilled negotiators).

Why immediate counterproposals can ruin a negotiation (feat. insight from 102 negotiations). 

The critical role of long-term thinking in effective negotiations. 

Key behaviours that skilled negotiators use to foster collaboration and transparency.

Practical tips you can use. 

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Sources:

Rackham, N. (2003). The behavior of successful negotiators. McGraw Hill/Irwin, New York.

Reb, J., Luan, S., & Gigerenzer, G. (2024). Smart management: Why successful leaders must embrace simple strategies in an increasingly uncertain and complex world. MIT Press. https://mitpress.mit.edu/9780262548014/smart-management/

75% of us expect to spot the unexpected. But we’re wrong. Today on Nudge, Dan Simons shares his results from perhaps the world’s best-known psychology experiment: the Invisible Gorilla. Listen, and you’ll take part in our own audio version of his experiment, and I'll dig into research papers to learn how Dan’s findings apply to marketing. 

Dan’s book Invisible Gorilla: https://www.theinvisiblegorilla.com/

Dan’s book Nobody’s Fool: https://dansimons.com/NobodysFool.html

Outdoor Advertising Recall study: https://tinyurl.com/5e8s5nwv

Subscribe to the (free) Nudge Newsletter: https://nudge.ck.page/profile

The Francesca Gino scandal shook the academic world, exposing fraudulent research practices at one of the world’s most prestigious institutions, Harvard Business School. This episode unpacks the details of the case, from the initial discoveries to the implications for science.

You’ll learn:

How a PhD student uncovered data manipulation in a high-profile study (feat. Zoe Xani’s investigation).

The critical role of whistleblowers in exposing fraud (feat. Data Colada’s analysis).

Key findings from Harvard’s 1,300-page report on research misconduct.

Which studies were faked and what they claimed to find.

How self-correcting mechanisms can strengthen trust despite scandals.

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Sources:

Data Colada. (2023). [109] Data falsificada (Part 1): “Clusterfake”. https://datacolada.org/109

Data Colada. (2023). Data falsificada (Part 1): Evidence that Francesca Gino fabricated data. Data Colada. Retrieved from https://datacolada.org/110

Data Colada. (2023). Data falsificada (Part 3): The cheaters are out of order. Data Colada. Retrieved from https://datacolada.org/111

Data Colada. (2023). Data falsificada (Part 4): Forgetting the words. Data Colada. Retrieved from https://datacolada.org/112

Data Colada. (2024). [116] Our (first?) day in court. https://datacolada.org/116

Data Colada. (2024). [118] Harvard’s Gino Report Reveals How A Dataset Was Altered, Data Colada. https://datacolada.org/118

Dalton, R. (2023, October 18). Embattled Harvard honesty professor accused of plagiarism. Science. Retrieved January 6, 2025, from https://www.science.org/content/article/embattled-harvard-honesty-professor-accused-plagiarism

Dubner, S. J. (2024). Why is there so much fraud in academia? (Update) [Audio podcast episode]. In Freakonomics Radio. Freakonomics, LLC. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/why-is-there-so-much-fraud-in-academia-update/

Dubner, S. J. (2025). Can academic fraud be stopped? (Update) [Audio podcast episode]. In Freakonomics 

Radio. Freakonomics, LLC. https://freakonomics.com/podcast/can-academic-fraud-be-stopped-update/

Gino, F., Kouchaki, M., & Galinsky, A. D. (2015). The moral virtue of authenticity: How inauthenticity produces feelings of immorality and impurity. Psychological Science, 26(7), 983–996. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797615575277

Gino, F., & Wiltermuth, S. S. (2014). Evil genius? How dishonesty can lead to greater creativity. Psychological Science, 25(4), 973–981. https://doi.org/10.1177/0956797614520714

Gino, F., Kouchaki, M., & Casciaro, T. (2020). Why connect? Moral consequences of networking with a promotion or prevention focus. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,

https://psycnet.apa.org/doiLanding?doi=10.1037%2Fpspa0000226

Harari, Y. N. (2024). Nexus: A brief history of information networks from the Stone Age to AI. Fern Press.

Judo, P. (2024). It’s over – Gino vs Harvard fake data scandal [Video]. YouTube. https://youtu.be/Q9tgyVPytBk

Konnikova, M. (2023). They studied dishonesty. Was their work a lie? The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/10/09/they-studied-dishonesty-was-their-work-a-lie

Lewis-Karus. (2024). How a scientific dispute spiraled into a defamation lawsuit. The New Yorker. https://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/how-a-scientific-dispute-spiralled-into-a-defamation-lawsuit

Shu, L. L., Mazar, N., Gino, F., Ariely, D., & Bazerman, M. H. (2012). Signing at the beginning makes ethics salient and decreases dishonest self-reports in comparison to signing at the end. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 109(38), 15197–15200. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1209746109

I put AI to the test at one of the world’s largest marketing conferences, Inbound 2024. This episode dives into the surprising results of my experiment and what they mean for the future of marketing. 

You’ll learn:

Why AI-generated content is seen as error-free (feat. 2022 study by Henestrosa et al.).

How AI compares to humans in persuading consumers (feat. 2023 meta-analysis).

Why strong positioning, like Wistia’s, is key to beating AI at its own game.

The marketing tasks most at risk of being taken over by AI (feat. 2024 survey).

A senior marketer’s take on whether AI could ever replace humans (feat. Richard Truncale).

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Sources: 

Henestrosa, A. L., Greving, H., & Kimmerle, J. (2022). Automated journalism: The effects of AI authorship and evaluative information on the perception of a science journalism article. Computers in Human Behavior, 138, 107445. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.chb.2022.107445

Huang, G., & Wang, S. (2023). Is artificial intelligence more persuasive than humans? A meta-analysis. Journal of Communication, 73(6), 552–562. https://doi.org/10.1093/joc/jqad024

Kasumovic, D. (2024). Artificial intelligence (AI) marketing benchmark report: 2024. Influencer Marketing Hub. https://influencermarketinghub.com/ai-marketing-benchmark-report/

Shotton, R. (2023). The illusion of choice: 16 ½ psychological biases that influence what we buy. Harriman House.

Chan, W. T. Y., & Leung, C. H. (2018). An empirical study on reverse psychology applied in advertising messages. Asian Journal of Empirical Research, 8(9), 321–329. https://doi.org/10.18488/journal.1007/2018.8.9/1007.9.321.329

From curing scurvy to shaping billion-dollar business strategies, this is the story of the most important experiment in science and its profound impact on our world.

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Inspired by the insights and storytelling of May Contain Lies How Stories, Statistics, and Studies Exploit Our Biases – And What We Can Do About It, authored by Alex Edmans.

I spoke to the leading behavioural science authors, researchers and practitioners in 2024. Here are their top lessons. It features insights from Tali Sharot, Todd Rodgers, Rory Sutherland, Prof. Sarah Moore, and Chris Voss. Plus, some big news for 2025. 

You’ll learn: 

Why our happiness fades, no matter how good life gets (feat. Tali Sharot).

How shorter emails can drastically improve response rates (feat. Todd Rogers).

Why our behaviours often shape our attitudes—rather than the other way around (feat. Rory Sutherland).

The surprising persuasive power of swear words in reviews and advertising (feat. Sarah Moore).

A hostage negotiator’s secret for winning arguments (feat. Chris Voss).

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Connect on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/phill-agnew-22213187/

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Sources: 

Epstein, Leonard H., Katelyn A. Carr, Meghan D. Cavanaugh, Rocco A. Paluch, and Mark E. Bouton (2011): “Long-term habituation to food in obese and nonobese women,” American Journal of Clinical Nutrition, 94(2), 371–376.

Adams, Gabrielle S., Benjamin A. Converse, Andrew H. Hales, and Leidy E. Klotz (2021): “People systematically overlook subtractive changes,” Nature, 592, 258–261.

Rogers, Todd, and Jessica Lasky-Fink (2020): “Write shorter messages,” Harvard Kennedy School.

Boomerang (2016): “7 Tips for Getting More Responses to Your Emails—Backed by Data,” Boomerang Blog.

Rosset, Evelyn (2008): “It's No Accident: Our Bias for Intentional Explanations,” Psychological Science, 19(6), 566–572.

Lafreniere, Katherine C., Sarah G. Moore, and Robert J. Fisher (2022): “The Power of Profanity: The Meaning and Impact of Swear Words in Word of Mouth,” SAGE Open.

Westerholm, Jim (2017): “Damn good coffee: Swear words and advertising,” Mälardalen University.

van Kleef, Gerben A., Carsten K. W. De Dreu, and Antony S. R. Manstead (2004): “The Interpersonal Effects of Anger and Happiness in Negotiations,” Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, Vol. 86, No. 1, pp. 57–76.

This episode contains swear words.

I’ve scoured his 38-year career and documented every persuasion tactic he’s used. Here’s how Steve Jobs became the most successful CEO of all time. 

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I tested a fairly unknown persuasion principle on 96 loyal Nudge listeners. It made my message 20% more effective. To hear how and why, listen to the latest episode of Nudge with the fantastic Bas Wouters, best-selling author and CEO of the Cialdini Influence.

Bas’s book Online Influence: https://www.onlineinfluence.com/book-online-influence/

Cialdini’s latest edition of Influence: https://tinyurl.com/2sdz9524

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I’ve spent weeks writing handwritten letters rather than emails. I’m running an experiment inspired by today’s guest, Harvard Professor Mike Norton. Mike’s the scientist behind the IKEA Effect, and in today’s Nudge, he explains how that bias could help me gain more reviews. Did it work? Find out on today’s episode of Nudge.

Mike’s book Ritual Effect: https://tinyurl.com/mwbvws3n

Watch Nudgestock: https://www.youtube.com/@nudgestock

Control emails: https://im.ge/i/Control-emails.fEPKZW

Handwritten emails: https://im.ge/i/handwritten-emails.fEPfX0

Stats for the control email: https://im.ge/i/Control.fEP9YK

Stats for the handwritten email: https://im.ge/i/Handwritten-variant.fEP5hF

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This is one of my favourite interviews of the year. Listen, and you’ll learn why you should go last in a job interview, why you should pay incentives out in regular but smaller sums, and how you should always list your benefits in threes. 

Steve’s book: https://tinyurl.com/23u5aysv

Steve’s website: https://influenceatwork.co.uk/

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