Macro Waves

BNP Paribas Economic Research

Stories about money and markets : Weekly talks from the Economic Research department of BNP Paribas with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist.

  • 10 minutes 36 seconds
    Emerging economies — Solid growth, limited room for manoeuvre

    In today’s discussion, we delve into the public finances of emerging economies in 2025, based on an exclusive analysis of our most recent EcoPerspectives issue focused on these economies. With robust but slowing growth, rising public debt and limited fiscal flexibility, what challenges and opportunities lie ahead for these countries?

    That's what we're going to explore with Hélène Drouot, an expert on Latin America and Lucas Plé, who specialises in sub-Saharan Africa


    https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US


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    4 December 2025, 10:29 am
  • 9 minutes 30 seconds
    International trade: after the US tariff offensive, an ever more multipolar world

    https://economic-research.bnpparibas.com/Home/en-US


    Since Donald Trump's return to the White House in 2025, the United States has massively increased its tariffs. As a result, trade flows to the US have been disrupted, but has this affected the dynamics of global trade? And above all, are we heading towards a major restructuring of global trade?


    Fins out more here: EcoPerspectives — Advanced Economies | 3rd Quarter 2025– Economic Research – BNP Paribas


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    4 November 2025, 3:15 pm
  • 19 minutes 5 seconds
    Global Economy: Issues to watch in the second half of 2025

    As we enter the second half of the year, and after a first half marked in particular on the economic front by the tariff war initiated by the United States, we suggest that we pause and look back for a moment. This will allow us to understand the dynamics that have shaped our economies over the last six months. It will also help us to identify to what extent and in what way they will impact the economic outlook for the second half of the year. What scenario should we expect?


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    25 July 2025, 4:00 am
  • 17 minutes 19 seconds
    What are the effects of US tariff policy on global trade and emerging economies?

    To highlight the publication of the second quarter issue of EcoPerspectives Emerging Economies, three members of the Emerging Economies team speak in ‘MacroWaves’: Christine Peltier, Cynthia Kalasopatan Antoine and Lucas Plé. This is an opportunity to take stock of the specific challenges facing countries.

    In this podcast, our economists review the consequences of US tariff increases on global growth, the dynamics of international trade reconfiguration, and the reorganisation of value chains. We will analyse the effects of these upheavals on emerging countries.


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    9 July 2025, 1:37 pm
  • 18 minutes 53 seconds
    In the turmoil of US tariffs: what effects on developed economies?

    In this new Podcast, we take a look at the short- to medium-term economic outlook for the major advanced economies, analysing the impact of trade tensions, the room for manoeuvre available and the expected economic dynamics.

    #growth #inflation #monetarypolicy #us #eurozone #uk


    Reading advice :


    Sound credit :

    • Extact from the speech of Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the IMF, during the IMF World Economic Outlook' press briefing, April 2025.

    # Press Briefing: World Economic Outlook, April 2025 - YouTube

    • Extract from Jérome Powell's speech at the May 7, 2025 FOMC press conference.

    # FOMC Press Conference May 7, 2025

    • Extact from the speech by Christine Lagarde, Président of the ECB, at the announcement of the ECB's latest monetary policy decisions, April 17, 2025.

    # President Lagarde presents the latest monetary policy decisions – 17 April 2025


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    23 May 2025, 7:26 am
  • 6 minutes 6 seconds
    Audiobrief | Self-employment back to the future
    In this Audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac discusses selfemployment in France. It has been growing again for almost 20 years, particularly in household services, but also in business services. In France, which has created nearly 420000 jobs a year over the last 5 years, self-employment has represented almost one job creation out of 5.

    Economic Research Website

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    26 June 2024, 7:08 am
  • 5 minutes 24 seconds
    Audiobrief | The European Union's trade balance: back in surplus
    In this Audiobrief, Guillaume Derrien discusses recent evolution of the European Union's trade balance. The latter moved back to a surplus in 2023. Despite China’s ramping up to higher value-added sectors, the EU trade surplus in traditionally buoyant industries (pharmaceuticals, automotive) remains at historically-high levels.

    Economic Research Website

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    28 May 2024, 9:32 am
  • 5 minutes 38 seconds
    Audiobrief | French trade deficit: France is relatively deindustrialised but investing
    In this audiobrief, Stéphane Colliac describes France’s trade deficit for 2023 main drivers. In addition to a deficit linked to imports of hydrocarbons and a structural deficit reflecting the country’s de-industrialisation, it is also driven by France’s investment in the needs arising from the ecological and digital transition and the electrification of the car industry.
     
    Economic Research Website

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    13 March 2024, 11:10 am
  • 21 minutes 19 seconds
    #2 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences
    In the second podcast on geopolitical uncertainty and its economic consequences, Daniel Morris and William De Vijlder look more closely at the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on firms, households and financial markets.

    Economic Research Website

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    21 December 2023, 8:35 am
  • 17 minutes 6 seconds
    #1 - Geopolitical uncertainty: economic consequences
    In two podcasts Daniel Morris, Chief Market Strategist of BNP Paribas Asset Management discusses with William De Vijlder, Group Chief Economist of BNP Paribas the impact of geopolitical uncertainty on the economy. In this first podcast, they look at economic and geopolitical uncertainty, why it matters and how it can be measured.


    Clic here to consult the graphic


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    19 December 2023, 10:08 am
  • 13 minutes 12 seconds
    #2 - Looking beyond the peak
    In the second and last episode of the series on central banks and their fight against inflation, Andrew Craig and William de Vijlder are looking beyond the peak and discuss what will come next. Among the questions are: how long will central banks hold rates at these levels? How long will they plateau at these current levels? what come after that?

    Economic Research Website

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    19 October 2023, 7:15 am
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