In this conversation, Ben Kaufman discusses the evolving relationship between Bitcoin and government, the implications of political engagement for Bitcoiners, and the advancements in self-custody technology. 

He introduces Miniscript, a programming language for Bitcoin that enhances the flexibility of spending conditions, and explores innovative use cases, particularly in inheritance planning.

The discussion also emphasizes the evolving landscape of Bitcoin self-custody, focusing on the security provided by Miniscript, the importance of emergency keys, and the role of Keeper in enhancing user experience. 

Stephan and Ben also explore the challenges of self-custody, the need for education, and the catalysts that could drive more users towards self-custody solutions. The balance between security and usability is key, highlighting the advancements in technology that make self-custody more accessible to the average user.

Takeaways

🔸The Bitcoin community's relationship with government is evolving.

🔸There is a tension between wanting less government and engaging politically.

🔸Miniscript offers a flexible way to define spending conditions in Bitcoin.

🔸User experience in self-custody has significantly improved over the years.

🔸Innovative use cases for Bitcoin technology are emerging, especially in inheritance planning.

🔸Time locks can be managed through absolute and relative methods in Bitcoin.

🔸The setup process for advanced spending conditions is similar to multisig wallets.

🔸Miniscript allows for complex configurations that enhance security.

🔸The importance of backing up wallet configurations cannot be overstated.

🔸Understanding the protocol level of Bitcoin is crucial for security.  Miniscript enhances the security of self-custody.

🔸Emergency keys provide a safety net for users.

🔸Redundancy is crucial in recovery solutions.

🔸User verification is essential for security.

🔸Keeper offers flexible options for emergency keys.

🔸Self-custody requires taking full responsibility.

🔸Education is key to increasing self-custody adoption.

🔸The landscape of self-custody is improving rapidly.

🔸Standardized templates for self-custody may emerge.

🔸Technological advancements are making self-custody easier.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:04) - Bitcoin’s relationship with the government

(04:15) - Should governments be convinced not to buy altcoins?

(08:09) - What is the current landscape of Bitcoin self custody technology?

(11:20) - What is Miniscript? 

(13:59) - What are some of the useful applications of Miniscript? 

(16:12) - Sponsors

(17:47) - What are Time Locks and how do they work? 

(23:42) - Setting up advanced spending conditions with Miniscript & Inheritance planning

(31:54) - Emergency keys & other Security models

(37:46) - Which devices support Miniscript?

(39:17) - What does Bitcoin Keeper offer?

(41:20) - The future of Miniscript adoption

(43:51) - Passphrases vs. Multisig

(45:31) - Sponsors

(49:13) - Why do normies avoid self-custody?

(1:01:15) - Catalysts for self-custody adoption

Links: 

https://x.com/_benkaufman 

https://x.com/bitcoinkeeper_ 

Sponsors:

Bold Bitcoin

CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

Stephan Livera links:

Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

Subscribe to the podcast

Subscribe to Substack

Andrew Hohns discusses the maturation of Bitcoin collateralized finance, the unique characteristics that make Bitcoin an exceptional form of collateral, and the innovative financing model of Battery Finance.

In this conversation, Andrew also discusses the complexities of capital markets, the challenges posed by inflation for credit investors, and the potential of Bitcoin as a transformative tool in structured finance. 

He emphasizes the importance of understanding investor needs, managing risks associated with Bitcoin-backed financing, and the global implications of integrating Bitcoin into traditional financial structures. Hohns advocates for a long-term perspective in financial planning and highlights the evolving landscape of finance influenced by digital assets.

Takeaways

🔸Bitcoin collateralized finance is becoming more mature.

🔸Short-term borrowing facilities dominate the current market.

🔸High interest rates pose challenges for long-term financing.

🔸Bitcoin's finite nature makes it a powerful asset.

🔸Bitcoin's versatility allows for various applications.

🔸The future of Bitcoin borrowing depends on institutional involvement.

🔸Battery Finance offers a unique financing model.

🔸Borrowers can re-denominate equity into Bitcoin.

🔸Impact investing can be enhanced with Bitcoin.

🔸Lenders have new options with Bitcoin as collateral. Capital markets cater to diverse investor needs and time horizons.

🔸Credit investments are essential for institutions needing income.

🔸Inflation poses significant challenges for credit investors today.

🔸Real returns must be considered to understand investment performance.

🔸Bitcoin can provide a hedge against inflation for credit investors.

🔸Global adoption of Bitcoin is crucial for its integration into finance.

🔸Risk management is vital when incorporating Bitcoin into financing.

🔸Time preferences influence financial decision-making and investment strategies.

🔸Structured finance can benefit from the unique characteristics of Bitcoin.

🔸The future of finance will increasingly involve digital assets like Bitcoin.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:55) - How does the market perceive Bitcoin?

(06:48) - Versatility of Bitcoin

(13:35) - Why is Bitcoin exceptional collateral?

(15:05) - Sponsors

(16:54) - Why have Bitcoin borrowing rates been high?

(19:37) - What is Battery Finance and how does it work?

(26:50) - Who are the target customers of Battery Finance?

(32:01) - Sponsors

(33:05) - Lender perspectives in Bitcoin financing

(35:54) - The challenge of inflation for credit investors

(42:32) - Global Perspectives on Bitcoin

(47:39) - How to manage risks in Bitcoin-backed financing?

(52:29) - Repealing SAB121 and implications of banks custodying Bitcoin

(58:05) - The future of Bitcoin in structured finance

Links: 

• https://www.newmarketcapital.com/about-us/ 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

In this episode, NVK, co-founder and CEO of CoinKite, discusses the fundamentals of Bitcoin self-custody. He covers the importance of self-custody, the different forms of Bitcoin ownership, the significance of private keys, best practices for securing Bitcoin, and tips for choosing the right hardware wallet. NVK highlights that self-custody is a high-responsibility activity and provides practical advice for managing Bitcoin securely. Stephan & NVK discuss the trade-offs associated with different wallet types, best practices for setting up and operating hardware wallets, and the significance of verifying transactions. 

The conversation also highlights common scams and pitfalls in the cryptocurrency space, providing listeners with actionable advice on how to protect their assets. Ultimately, the speakers encourage individuals to take personal responsibility for their Bitcoin security, likening the learning process to driving a car.

Takeaways

🔸Self-custody is essential for true ownership of Bitcoin.

🔸The majority of newcomers buy financialized products, not actual Bitcoin.

🔸Private keys are crucial; losing them means losing your Bitcoin.

🔸Confidence is key in self-custody; practice is necessary.

🔸Different users have different needs for Bitcoin management.

🔸Hardware wallets should prioritize security over price.

🔸Always keep your private keys offline and secure.

🔸Understand the trade-offs of different Bitcoin storage methods.

🔸Use a phone wallet for small amounts and a hardware wallet for larger amounts.

🔸Educate yourself continuously about Bitcoin and self-custody. Hardware wallets range from $100 to $200, making them accessible.

🔸Self-custody is crucial for Bitcoin security.

🔸Always verify addresses through multiple channels before sending Bitcoin.

🔸Never enter your seed words into any online platform.

🔸Use a quiet space for key generation to avoid surveillance.

🔸Test recovery of your wallet before transferring significant amounts.

🔸Be aware of common scams, especially phishing attempts.

🔸Protect your Bitcoin as if its value will increase significantly.

🔸Educate yourself continuously about Bitcoin security practices.

🔸If you can drive, you can learn to self-custody your Bitcoin.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:33) - Why is self-custody important?

(03:47) - Different forms of Bitcoin ownership

(09:09) - Self-custody is a high responsibility activity; bitcoinsecurity.guide 

(11:06) - What are Bitcoin private keys?; Best practices for securing your Bitcoin

(16:13) - How to choose the right hardware wallets?

(18:27) - Sponsors

(24:58) - Tips for managing your Bitcoin; Trade-offs of hardware wallets

(29:44) - What is the ‘Key Generation Ceremony’?

(36:24) - Sponsors

(37:42) - Best practices for Sending and Receiving Bitcoin

(42:15) - What are the common scams to avoid?

(44:04) - When should a person upgrade their Bitcoin security setup?

(46:39) - Outro

Links: 

https://bitcoinsecurity.guide/ 

https://coldcard.com/docs/ 

https://x.com/nvk 

https://x.com/Coinkite 

Sponsors:

Bold Bitcoin

CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

Nomadcapitalist.com/apply

Stephan Livera links:

Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

Subscribe to the podcast

Subscribe to Substack

In this episode, Susie Ward discusses her advocacy for Bitcoin in the UK, focusing on media misrepresentation and regulatory challenges. She critiques the BBC's negative coverage of Bitcoin, highlighting the importance of accurate information and the impact of misinformation on public perception. 

The conversation then shifts to the FATF travel rule, exploring its implications for privacy and the ineffectiveness of traditional financial regulations in combating money laundering. Susie emphasizes the need for a better understanding of Bitcoin's technology and the dangers of overregulation. 

Susie and Stephan also discuss the implications of compliance and regulation on Bitcoin adoption, the dangers of debanking, and the political divides affecting financial freedom. The discussion highlights the need for better understanding and education around Bitcoin and the potential risks of centralized control over financial systems.

Takeaways

🔸The BBC's coverage of Bitcoin often lacks accuracy and accountability.

🔸Misinformation about Bitcoin can have lasting effects on public perception.

🔸The FATF travel rule is ineffective and infringes on privacy rights.

🔸Many journalists lack the technical background to report accurately on Bitcoin.

🔸Public fear can drive support for unnecessary regulations.

🔸Bitcoin's benefits are often overshadowed by negative media narratives.

🔸The travel rule has not proven to reduce money laundering effectively.

🔸Data privacy is at risk with increasing regulatory demands.

🔸The financial system has not solved the issues it claims to address.

🔸Understanding Bitcoin requires significant research and expertise. Compliance and regulation are making Bitcoin adoption more difficult.

🔸Centralized databases pose risks to individual safety.

🔸Debanking affects millions in the UK without explanation.

🔸Political views can lead to financial exclusion.

🔸The UK is struggling to become a crypto hub despite government interest.

🔸Regulatory measures can hinder retail investors from accessing Bitcoin.

🔸The perception of Bitcoin as 'internet money' leads to ignorance among regulators.

🔸Advocacy and education are crucial for Bitcoin's future in the UK.

🔸Public discourse on controversial topics is essential for understanding.

🔸The implications of programmable money are more dystopian than Orwell predicted.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:55) - Why is the BBC distorting facts about Bitcoin?

(04:55) - What is the impact of misinformation spread around Bitcoin by the BBC among the general public?

(09:31) - The importance of fact-checked rebuttals

(13:53) - What is the FATF Travel Rule?; What are its implications?

(23:22) - Are people pushing for more compliance laws? 

(24:03) - Sponsors

(29:59) - Dangers of overdoing KYC; Debanking & its implications

(34:20) - Political divides & Financial freedom

(35:28) - Sponsors

(38:22) - Is the UK really protecting its investors?

(45:36) - George Orwell coin 

(47:35) - Advocacy for Bitcoin in the UK

Links:

Susie’s Forbes articles: https://www.forbes.com/sites/susievioletward/

Susie’s Twitter: https://x.com/DecentraSuze

How to donate and help bitcoin in the UK: https://uk.bitcoinpolicy.net/membership/individuals/

Sponsors:

Bold Bitcoin

CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

Subscribe to the podcast

Subscribe to Substack

In this conversation, OpnState shares his journey from a disillusioned banker to a policy advisor focused on compliance and anti-money laundering (AML) laws. He discusses the complexities of financial regulations, the erosion of individual rights, and the impact of global standard-setting bodies like the FATF on national sovereignty. OpnState emphasizes the presumption of guilt in financial transactions and the challenges posed by compliance culture, while also addressing the future of self-hosted wallets and the potential for pushback against globalist interests. 

Stephan & OpnState also discuss the dangers of delegating self-sovereignty to political figures and the compliance mindset that has permeated society. There is a need to explore cultural change, legal and political paths to challenge the FATF, and the importance of creating alternative systems; this could be achieved through individual responsibility.

Takeaways

🔸Open State transitioned from banking to policy to make a difference.

🔸He highlights the misaligned incentives in traditional banking.

🔸The FATF plays a significant role in shaping global financial regulations.

🔸Compliance laws often lead to a presumption of guilt for all clients.

🔸There is a concerning loss of sovereignty for countries due to global standards.

🔸The culture of compliance is pervasive and stifles individual freedoms.

🔸Self-hosted wallets are at risk of increased regulation.

🔸Countries often have no say in the regulations they must follow.

🔸The effectiveness of AML laws in reducing crime is questionable.

🔸There is potential for nationalist movements to push back against globalist regulations. We are delegating our self-sovereignty to politicians.

🔸The compliance mentality is pervasive in society.

🔸Cultural change is necessary to challenge compliance.

🔸Legal paths to change the FATF are limited.

🔸Creating alternatives to the FATF is essential.

🔸Individual choices can drive societal change.

🔸Choke Point 2.0 represents a significant threat.

🔸Complacency can arise from temporary regulatory relief.

🔸We must take responsibility for our own freedom.

🔸Society needs to shed the virus of compliance.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:34) - Who is OpnState?; His disillusionment with traditional Banking

(05:46) - What is the role of Compliance and AML laws?

(08:17) - Information sharing & Privacy concerns

(12:36) - Guilty until proven innocent?

(16:56) - The growing ‘compliance culture’ & its implications

(20:05) - What is the FATF?; Only ~10 countries control the rules

(24:39) - Sponsors

(26:57) - Why does the Travel Rule affect the future of self-hosted wallets and Bitcoin?

(30:19) - What goes into making FATF definitions?

(34:05) - What are the dangers of delegating self-sovereignty?

(37:29) - Implications of nations embracing the ‘Compliance Mindset’

(43:20) - Can Legal & Political paths lead to change?

(47:05) - Sponsors

(48:05) - What are the alternatives to FATF?

(53:04) - The role of individual choices that affect change

(59:08) - Choke Point 2.0 & its implications

(1:05:43) - Taking responsibility for personal freedom

Links:

• https://decentralizedregulation.org 

• https://primal.net/profile/npub1v6z4srj4ktch4f3ee9ze2zp7ml4n9rshttmntpamfed0nvpev5fszzuq49 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

In this episode of SLP, the discussion revolves around the advancements in Bitcoin hardware and software, focusing on wallet recommendations for beginners, the trade-offs between different types of wallets, and the importance of hardware wallets for securing Bitcoin. 

Ben & K3tan share their insights on when to transition from software to hardware wallets, the significance of recovery processes, and the evolving landscape of Bitcoin tools and options available to users. 

They also discuss various aspects of Bitcoin management, including the importance of testing and upgrading hardware wallets, the role of Bitcoin nodes, and effective merchant solutions for accepting Bitcoin payments.The need for careful planning and testing when handling larger amounts of Bitcoin, the benefits of running a personal Bitcoin node, and the various tools available for merchants to accept Bitcoin, such as BTC Pay Server and ZapRite have been touched upon in the episode as well.

Takeaways

🔸Bitcoin hardware and software are continuously evolving.

🔸Choosing the right wallet depends on user experience and comfort level.

🔸Sparrow Wallet is highly recommended for beginners.

🔸Understanding the trade-offs between on-chain and liquid Bitcoin is crucial.

🔸Hardware wallets provide an extra layer of security for Bitcoin holders.

🔸It's important to educate newcomers on the recovery process of wallets.

🔸Thresholds for moving to hardware wallets should be based on comfort with risk.

🔸The ease of use of wallets can significantly impact user experience.

🔸Recovery and inheritance planning is essential for long-term Bitcoin security.

🔸The Bitcoin ecosystem is rich with options for both new and experienced users. Test your backups as you're setting up the device.

🔸Don't rush to move your entire cold stack to new hardware.

🔸Running a Bitcoin node is primarily for personal verification.

🔸BTCPay Server is a reliable option for accepting Bitcoin payments.

🔸You can pay your bills in Bitcoin through specific services.

🔸Building a local community can enhance Bitcoin transactions.

🔸Using gift cards can help manage everyday expenses with Bitcoin.

🔸It's essential to understand the trade-off between time and money in Bitcoin management.

🔸Zaprite offers excellent invoicing solutions for Bitcoin payments.

🔸The current low fees despite high Bitcoin prices indicate a more mature infrastructure.

Timestamps: (00:00) - Intro (04:25) - Software Bitcoin Wallets (17:50) - Sponsors (22:52) - Hardware Bitcoin Wallets (30:18) - Sponsors (41:05) - Why do you need to run your own Bitcoin Node? (53:14) - How can merchants use Bitcoin? (58:51) - Practical approaches of living on a Bitcoin Standard (1:06:39) - Outro

Links: 

• https://x.com/BTCsessions 

• https://x.com/theBTCmentor 

• https://x.com/_k3tan 

• https://x.com/ministryofnodes 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

• Nomadcapitalist.com/apply

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

Maya Parbhoe, a presidential candidate from Suriname and Bitcoin advocate, shares her journey as an entrepreneur and her vision for her country. She discusses the challenges Suriname faces, including economic issues, corruption, and the lack of a capital market. 

Maya emphasizes the potential of Bitcoin to transform the economy and governance in Suriname, advocating for decentralization and transparency to combat corruption. She outlines her plans for a technocratic government and the importance of privatization and innovation in driving economic growth. Maya also emphasizes various economic and political strategies for Suriname, focusing on the potential of Bitcoin as a sovereign wealth fund, the rethinking of taxation, and the agility of governance in implementing reforms. Stephan & Maya also discuss the importance of transitioning state employees to new industries, the role of nuclear energy in innovation, and the political landscape leading up to the elections. 

Takeaways

🔸Maya has been an entrepreneur since age 15.

🔸She discovered Bitcoin in 2012 and became an advocate.

🔸Suriname lacks a capital market and financial infrastructure.

🔸The country is rich in natural resources but faces economic challenges.

🔸Maya's father was murdered due to corruption, influencing her views.

🔸She aims to make Bitcoin legal tender in Suriname.

🔸Decentralization of power is crucial for reducing corruption.

🔸Maya advocates for a technocratic government to address issues.

🔸Privatization of state-owned enterprises is necessary for growth.

🔸Transparency in government spending can be achieved with Bitcoin. Universal Basic Income was rejected in Switzerland due to cultural values.

🔸Suriname has significant natural resources that can be leveraged for wealth.

🔸Bitcoin could serve as a sovereign wealth fund for generational wealth.

🔸Taxation is viewed as theft, and there are calls to rethink government services.

🔸Governments should operate more like service providers than tax collectors.

🔸Suriname's small population allows for agile governance and rapid reforms.

🔸Transitioning state employees to new industries is crucial for economic diversification.

🔸Nuclear energy presents opportunities for innovation and economic growth.

🔸The political landscape is shifting towards a more decentralized governance model.

🔸External pressures from organizations like the IMF are minimal for Suriname.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(00:55) - Who is Maya Parbhoe?

(04:47) - Maya's entrepreneurial journey & Discovering Bitcoin through Austrian economics

(07:57) - Suriname: Economic conditions & Challenges

(12:09) - What is Maya's vision for Suriname's Presidential campaign?

(15:02) - Working with @JAN3com towards nation-state Bitcoin adoption

(18:23) - Eradicating rampant corruption & working towards Decentralisation of Governance

(20:47) - Sponsors

(24:05) - Can Bitcoin solve corruption?

(27:35) - ‘Corruption bounty’; The future of governance in Suriname

(30:45) - Universal Basic Income; Bitcoin as a Sovereign Wealth Fund

(33:36) - Sponsors

(34:43) - Taxation and the role of Government

(38:22) - The benefit of agility in Governance in Suriname

(41:13) - Cutting the size of the government & transitioning state employees

(43:19) - How does diversifying energy sources help Suriname?

(45:04) - Political landscape in Suriname

(50:14) - What are the external pressures for Suriname?; Bitcoin bonds  

Links: 

• https://www.maya2025.com/plan 

• https://x.com/MayaPar25 

• https://x.com/Daedalus_Labs 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

In this conversation, Giovanni Santostasi shares his insight about the power law and its application to Bitcoin. Giovanni starts with his journey of discovering Bitcoin, his background in data analysis, and how he applies scientific methods to understand Bitcoin's behavior. The discussion delves into the concept of power laws, their prevalence in nature, and how they can be used to model various phenomena, including economic systems. 

Giovanni critiques traditional economic models and emphasizes the importance of data-driven analysis in understanding complex systems like Bitcoin. He explores the nature of Bitcoin as a network, the patterns of adoption, and the implications of power laws in understanding market behavior. Giovanni argues against the existence of bubbles in a power law framework and emphasizes the importance of recognizing the diminishing returns in Bitcoin's growth. 

The conversation concludes with reflections on the future of Bitcoin and its potential trajectory in the coming years.

Takeaways

🔸The power law is a significant concept in understanding Bitcoin's price behavior.

🔸Giovanni's early interest in Bitcoin was sparked by its potential to enable futuristic projects.

🔸Power laws are prevalent in various natural and human systems, including cities and economies.

🔸The S-curve model of adoption is often misapplied in discussions about Bitcoin.

🔸Giovanni discovered that 94% of Bitcoin's behavior can be modeled using a power law.

🔸Understanding power laws can provide insights into complex systems like Bitcoin.

🔸Data analysis is crucial for making sense of economic phenomena.

🔸Giovanni emphasizes the importance of rigorous scientific methods in economics.

🔸The relationship between price and time in Bitcoin follows a power law.

🔸Giovanni aims to bridge the gap between physics and economics through data-driven analysis. Modeling human behavior is complex and often unpredictable.

🔸Market corrections can be anticipated through patterns similar to physical phenomena.

🔸Historical events can exhibit power law characteristics.

🔸Bitcoin's adoption does not follow a traditional S-curve but rather a power law.

🔸Bubbles in Bitcoin are seen as outliers rather than a fundamental aspect of its behavior.

🔸The growth of Bitcoin is expected to slow down over time due to diminishing returns.

🔸Understanding Bitcoin requires a framework that incorporates scaling variant phenomena.

🔸The interactions within the Bitcoin network create a self-regulating system.

🔸Future predictions for Bitcoin should consider its historical behavior and power law dynamics.

🔸The conversation highlights the need for a deeper understanding of economic theories in relation to Bitcoin. The behavior of wallets significantly influences Bitcoin's price dynamics.

🔸Whales have a disproportionate impact on Bitcoin pricing.

🔸Diminishing returns are expected as Bitcoin matures.

🔸Time preference is a crucial concept for Bitcoin investors.

🔸Cities exhibit power law growth, unlike corporations.

🔸Future projections suggest Bitcoin could reach $10 million in 20 years.

🔸Market cycles are likely to continue, with predictable peaks and troughs.

🔸Liquidity is becoming a critical factor in Bitcoin's price movements.

🔸Diminishing volatility may lead to smaller market corrections.

🔸Emotional discipline is essential for successful trading strategies.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:06) - Giovanni’s journey with Bitcoin

(06:37) - Finding Power Law in nature & in Bitcoin

(11:32) - What is Giovanni’s view on so-called S-Curve adoption?

(15:48) - What is a Power Law?; Mathematical relationship with Bitcoin

(20:14) - Power Law in living organisms, planets, languages & cities

(31:05) - Contrasting views on economic methodology

(33:30) - Sponsors

(39:35) - Modeling human behavior & Market dynamics

(44:47) - Understanding adoption patterns in Bitcoin

(49:05) - Comparing the growth of Bitcoin to that of a virus & internet

(56:48) - Debunking price hopium with Power Law

(1:03:13) - The future of Bitcoin with diminishing returns 

(1:09:59) - Scale invariance (Impact of ETFs & Corporations on Bitcoin)

(1:13:52) - Understanding Wallet behavior and Price dynamics

(1:20:46) - The impact of Time Preference in Bitcoin

(1:23:54) - Bitcoin's price trajectory through Power Law

(1:24:36) - Sponsors

(1:30:57) - Global liquidity & its impact on Bitcoin’s price

(1:38:50) - Should you trade Bitcoin?; Managing emotional discipline 

Links: 

• https://x.com/Giovann35084111 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

In this conversation, Miljan from Primal discusses the significant updates in the Nostr protocol and the launch of Primal 2.0. The discussion covers the evolution of Nostr, the introduction of a feed marketplace that empowers users, and the diverse communities forming around the platform. Miljan highlights the new features of Primal 2.0, including long-form content capabilities, advanced search functionalities, and the ethical monetization model of Primal Premium. The conversation emphasizes the importance of user agency, authenticity, and the potential of open networks in the social media landscape.

Takeaways

🔸Nostr has evolved significantly in usability and user agency.

🔸The feed marketplace allows users to curate their own content experience.

🔸Primal 2.0 introduces major features enhancing user interaction.

🔸Long-form content on Nostr competes with established platforms like Substack.

🔸Nostr's open network fosters authenticity and user sovereignty.

🔸Primal Premium offers ethical monetization focused on user value.

🔸The community dynamics on Nostr are diverse and evolving.

🔸Advanced search capabilities set Nostr apart from other social media.

🔸The future of social media is leaning towards open and decentralized models.

🔸Nostr is at the early stages of a promising development trajectory.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro(03:02) - The Evolution of Nostr: Major thematic changes so far

(05:31) - How is the Feed Marketplace with Primal 2.0 empowering users?

(12:48) - How does Nostr foster diverse user groups & emerging communities?

(17:14) - What’s new with Primal 2.0?

(21:41) - Sponsors

(24:05) - Primal 2.0 ‘Reads’ parallels with Substack and Medium

(31:16) - The Open Network advantage of Nostr

(34:53) - Sponsors

(39:24) - Is Nostr a censorship resistant network?

(43:57) - How many people are actively using Nostr? 

(50:06) - What is Primal Premium?

Links: 

• https://x.com/mbraticevic 

• https://primal.net/miljan 

• https://x.com/primal_app 

• Bitcoiners, Don’t Sleep on Nostr!: https://youtu.be/7LsIb6D7FtU
  

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

• Nomadcapitalist.com/apply

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

Bumi & Stephan explore the evolution of Alby from a browser extension to a self-custodial Lightning wallet, Alby Hub. The conversation delves into the integration of Nostr for self-sovereign digital identity, security considerations for browser extensions, and the role of LSPs in channel management. 

Bumi explains the architecture of Alby Hub, its user experience, and pricing models, emphasizing the importance of integrating Bitcoin into various applications. They also discuss the cost structures associated with Bitcoin services, the optimization of Lightning channels, and the challenges of on-chain payments. 

The conversation highlights the importance of merchant adoption and the innovative Nostr Wallet Connect (NWC) protocol, which decouples wallets from applications, making it easier for developers. They introduce Alby Go, a mobile application designed for seamless payments, and explore the future of self-custodial solutions in the cryptocurrency space.

Takeaways

🔸Alby aims to use Bitcoin as open-source money for digital economies.

🔸The Alby browser extension allows seamless Lightning payments on the web.

🔸Nostr integration enhances self-sovereignty in digital identity management.

🔸Security of browser extensions relies on the underlying browser's security model.

🔸Alby Hub is a self-custodial Lightning wallet designed for programmability.

🔸Users can run Alby Hub on various platforms, including cloud and home servers.

🔸LSPs provide liquidity and channel management for Alby Hub users.

🔸Alby Hub aims to simplify user experience with default channel setups.

🔸Pricing for Alby Hub includes hosting fees and LSP charges for channels.

🔸The goal is to make Bitcoin integration easy for developers and users alike. Users need to understand the cost structure of Bitcoin services.

🔸The Lightning Network requires a one-time setup fee for cheaper transactions.

🔸Optimizing channel sizes is crucial for effective use of the Lightning Network.

🔸On-chain payments from Lightning balances are still a challenge.

🔸Merchant adoption is essential for the growth of Lightning payments.

🔸NWC allows applications to communicate with wallets easily.

🔸Alby Go simplifies mobile payments for users.

🔸Self-custodial solutions are becoming easier to use.

🔸Education is key to increasing self-custodial adoption.

🔸The future of Bitcoin services will involve both custodial and self-custodial options.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:10) - What is Alby?

(03:30) - What is the Alby Extension?

(06:08) - Integrating Alby with Nostr, Zapping & Value-for-value economy

(11:13) - Security for Alby as a browser extension

(14:33) - What is Alby Hub?

(18:52) - Sponsors

(21:22) - Alby Cloud, LSPs & Channel management in Alby Hub

(27:03) - Pricing and User Experience of Alby Hub

(33:44) - Breaking down the cost structure, Optimising lightning channels

(36:57) - Sponsors

(37:59) - Switching from/to On-chain payments & Lightning

(41:51) - Enhancing merchant adoption with Nostr Wallet Connect

(44:32) - What is Nostr Wallet Connect?

(51:12) - What is Alby Go?

(54:54) - Who are the main users of Alby? 

(57:09) - The future of self-custodial solutions

Links: 

• https://x.com/Bumi 

• https://kosmos.social/@bumi 

• https://x.com/getAlby 

• https://x.com/nwc_dev 

• https://getalby.com/ 

• SLP412 Moritz of Alby - Making Lightning On the Web Easy https://youtu.be/nYqYHgAtUho 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack

PlanC and Sminston to discuss the power law as it applies to Bitcoin. They explore the implications of power law on Bitcoin's price, volatility, and market dynamics, emphasizing its predictive capabilities and the diminishing returns over time. The conversation focuses on the technical aspects of power law, its historical accuracy, and potential factors that could disrupt its validity. The hosts also touch on the S-curve phenomenon in Bitcoin adoption and the overall health of the Bitcoin market. Bitcoin's price projections, the concept of extended cycles, and the implications of the power law on Bitcoin's future are a few things which are talked about too, along with stability of Bitcoin's price model, potential market fluctuations, and the impact of adoption and liquidity on Bitcoin's growth. Lastly, PlanC and Sminston emphasize the importance of understanding market dynamics and the historical patterns that Bitcoin has followed, providing insights for investors and enthusiasts alike.

Takeaways

🔸Power law indicates diminishing returns for Bitcoin over time.

🔸Bitcoin's volatility has been decreasing systematically.

🔸The power law model has shown a 4.5% accuracy in price predictions.

🔸A significant event would be needed to disrupt Bitcoin's power law.

🔸The power law provides a more stable growth model compared to exponential growth.

🔸Bitcoin's adoption is a gradual process, not an overnight phenomenon.

🔸The R squared value of the power law is increasing, indicating better fit.

🔸Power law explains Bitcoin's price history with high accuracy.

🔸Market dynamics can fluctuate, but the power law remains intact.

🔸Understanding power law helps in making informed investment decisions. Bitcoin's price can fluctuate significantly, with projections ranging from 35k to 400k.

🔸The stability of Bitcoin's price model is largely established, with 95% confidence in projections.

🔸Adoption and liquidity cycles are crucial in determining Bitcoin's market behavior.

🔸The concept of extended cycles suggests that Bitcoin's growth may not follow traditional four-year patterns.

🔸Historical data shows that Bitcoin has followed a power law growth pattern, indicating long-term stability.

🔸Market dynamics are influenced by institutional adoption and liquidity conditions.

🔸The potential for a muted bear market exists, with less drastic price drops anticipated.

🔸Understanding the power law can provide insights into Bitcoin's future price movements.

🔸The conversation highlights the importance of data analysis in predicting market trends.

🔸Investors should remain aware of the evolving landscape of Bitcoin and its implications for the future.

Timestamps:

(00:00) - Intro

(01:29) - How does Power Law apply to Bitcoin?; Comparing it to Saylor’s Bitcoin24 model projections

(04:54) - The math behind Power Law

(08:23) - Is Bitcoin on a path of diminishing returns?

(13:09) - How accurate is the Power Law model?; Power Law Vs S2F comparison

(18:58) - What differentiates Power Law from other models?

(22:36) - What could ‘break’ the Power Law?

(25:09) - Sponsors

(28:17) - The S-curve phenomenon in Bitcoin adoption

(34:19) - Bitcoin price projections and Market analysis

(39:11) - Sponsors

(49:35) - What can be considered an ‘extended cycle’?

(55:24) - Sminston With‘s ‘Bitcoin Decay Channel Oscillator’

(1:02:55) - Power Law and its implications for Bitcoin's Future

Links: 

• https://x.com/TheRealPlanC

• https://x.com/sminston_with 

• Best Bitcoin Data Family - https://x.com/i/communities/1856486530056929427 

Sponsors:

• Bold Bitcoin

• CoinKite.com (code LIVERA)

• mempool.space/accelerator 

Stephan Livera links:

• Follow me on X: @stephanlivera

• Subscribe to the podcast

• Subscribe to Substack