Recorded 4-2-2026

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On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest James M. Dorsey joins us to discuss the Iran War one month on and its potential consequences for the United States, Europe, the Gulf States, Israel, and Iran itself. Reflecting on the conflict, Dorsey argues bluntly: “This was unnecessary and a huge mistake, for which everybody is going to pay a heavy price.”

We begin with Donald Trump’s latest speech addressing the war before broadening the conversation to the geopolitical fallout of the conflict. Dorsey explains why the war risks further destabilizing the Middle East, warning that tensions between Iran and the Gulf States could worsen dramatically while leaving all parties worse off.

The conversation also explores the long and troubled history of U.S.–Iran relations, including the legacy of the Iran–Iraq War and U.S. support for Saddam Hussein during that conflict, even as his regime deployed nerve gas on the battlefield. Understanding that history, Dorsey argues, is essential for grasping the deep mistrust that continues to shape the current crisis.

We also discuss the surprising intervention of prominent neoconservative thinker Robert Kagan, whose article “America Has Become a Rogue Superpower” challenges assumptions about the hawkish foreign policy establishment. Finally, we examine the role of the Pentagon under Pete Hegseth, including concerns about religious rhetoric and ideological overtones surrounding the war effort.

All that and much more on this edition of Parallax Views.

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In this explosive edition of Parallax Views, host J.G. Michael is joined by former CIA analyst and counterterrorism official Larry C. Johnson of the Sonar21 blog to discuss the rapidly escalating U.S.–Iran war and why Johnson believes the Trump administration’s public messaging about peace negotiations is deeply misleading.

Drawing on his recent article “Is Trump Serious About Negotiations with Iran?”, Johnson argues that claims of imminent diplomacy with Tehran should be treated with extreme skepticism. In fact, he bluntly warns listeners: “Don’t believe ’em — they’re lying.” According to Johnson, statements about ceasefires or talks may be intended to calm markets and suppress oil prices rather than signal genuine negotiations. He predicts that after markets close on Friday, the conflict could escalate dramatically.

The conversation dives deep into the strategic and economic stakes of the war, including the potential for catastrophic disruption to global energy infrastructure and the risk of shutting down the Strait of Hormuz. Johnson explains why proposals to seize strategic islands in the Persian Gulf could expose U.S. forces to devastating missile, drone, and naval attacks — and why such moves might trigger a wider economic shock affecting oil, LNG, fertilizer, and even global metals supply chains.

J.G. and Johnson also examine how this conflict compares to earlier U.S. wars in the Middle East. Johnson argues that the current war is even more dangerous than the Bush-era invasion of Iraq, noting that this time there has been little effort to manufacture public consent on this war of choice.

Other topics explored in this wide-ranging conversation include:

• The geopolitical consequences of closing the Strait of Hormuz and what it means for the global oil market
• A bit on Kharg Island, a significant Iranian oil export hub
• The potential economic ripple effects of war on commodities like copper, uranium, and nickel
• The role of Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israel lobby in shaping U.S. policy toward Iran
• The resignation of Joe Kent and what it signals about internal divisions within the Trump administration
• The historical roots of U.S.–Iran hostility, including Washington’s support for Saddam Hussein during the Iran–Iraq War
• Why Johnson believes American troops could soon face significant casualties if escalation continues and troops on the ground are deployed.

Johnson, who served as an analyst at the CIA and later as Deputy Director in the U.S. State Department’s Office of Counterterrorism, brings decades of intelligence and national security experience to his analysis of the unfolding crisis.

If Johnson’s predictions are correct, the coming days could reshape not only Middle East geopolitics but also the global economy and energy system.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, historian, retired U.S. Air Force lieutenant colonel, and foreign policy critic William J. Astore joins the show to discuss what he calls the sorry state of affairs that is contemporary American foreign policy—particularly as the United States becomes increasingly entangled in a new war with Iran.

Astore and J.G. Michael examine the long historical arc behind the current crisis, including the legacy of the 1953 Iranian coup d'état that overthrew Iran’s democratically elected prime minister Mohammad Mosaddegh—a pivotal moment that cemented decades of mistrust between Washington and Tehran. From there, the conversation widens into a critique of American imperial ambitions, regime-change politics, and the bipartisan foreign policy consensus that has repeatedly drawn the U.S. into conflicts across the Middle East.

The discussion also explores the influence of the Israel lobby on U.S. policy toward Iran, including the role played by organizations such as American Israel Public Affairs Committee and other hardline pro-Israel advocacy groups in shaping Washington’s approach to the region.

In addition, Astore and Michael analyze recent political developments inside the U.S. national security apparatus, including the resignation of Joe Kent, the former head of the National Counterterrorism Center, who stepped down in protest over the Iran conflict. They also discuss the muted response of Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard—once known for her anti-interventionist rhetoric—raising questions about the limits of “antiwar” branding within the realities of power politics.

All that and much more on this edition of Parallax Views.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, J.G. Michael is joined by Dublin-based historian and guide Garvan Rushe, founder of Dublin Tour Guide. Rushe discusses his approach to bringing the history of Dublin to life for visitors—not by simply reciting dates and facts, but by telling human stories that connect people to the places they’re walking through.

The conversation explores how Rushe personalizes his tours and adapts them to the interests of each group, treating tour guiding as a form of storytelling that blends history, culture, and lived experience. Along the way, they touch on some of the figures and traditions that loom large in Dublin’s past, including the legacy of the great Catholic emancipator Daniel O'Connell, the influence of Catholicism on Irish identity and public life, and the role of labor activism through working-class leader Jim Larkin.

Rushe reflects on how guiding people through the city can open up conversations about Irish history in ways that feel immediate and personal, allowing visitors to see Dublin not just as a tourist destination but as a place shaped by generations of struggle, faith, culture, and everyday life. The result is a wide-ranging discussion about history, memory, and the art of helping people experience a city through the stories embedded in its streets.

Recorded 3-18-26

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On this edition of Parallax Views, I’m joined by journalist Eli Clifton and political scientist Ian S. Lustick to discuss their provocative The Nation article, “The Israeli Tail Wags the American Dog,” as well as their forthcoming book Israel’s Lobby: America in the Grip of a Foreign Power. We examine their central argument that recent U.S. policy—particularly the Trump administration’s war with Iran—cannot be fully understood through traditional national interest frameworks but instead reflects the outsized influence of Israel’s government and its allies within the United States. The conversation explores how Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has historically sought to shape U.S. Middle East policy, including his role in advocating for the Iraq War and the current war with Iran.

We also delve into Lustick’s intellectual evolution on Israel-Palestine and the lobby question, offering a reflective opening to the discussion, before turning to key case studies like the Steven Rosen espionage affair and the broader ecosystem of lobbying, campaign finance, and elite influence networks. Clifton, known for his investigative work on money in politics and foreign policy, helps unpack how these forces operate in practice. Additionally, we address the role of Christian Zionism, discussing the Israel lobby without falling into antisemitism, and how this new book builds upon—and updates—the arguments made in The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy by Stephen Walt and John Mearsheimer. All that and more in this wide-ranging conversation about power, influence, and the future of U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Recorded 3-18-26

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In this episode of Parallax Views, retired U.S. diplomat Patrick N. Theros returns to examine what he sees as a catastrophic turning point in American foreign policy: the Trump administration’s decision to wage war with Iran. A career Foreign Service officer who served across the Middle East—including as U.S. Ambassador to Qatar and as a political advisor to U.S. Central Command—Theros brings decades of regional expertise to a sobering assessment of the conflict and its potential consequences.

Theros argues that the longer the United States remains entangled in this war, the more severe the economic and geopolitical fallout will become. From his perspective, even an imperfect, face-saving exit would be preferable to a prolonged escalation. He also suggests that Trump has been influenced by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in pursuing this course, raising concerns about external pressures shaping U.S. policy. In a striking reflection of the current political moment, Theros describes a “Twilight Zone” dynamic in which he finds himself agreeing—at least on this issue—with figures like Marjorie Taylor Greene.

Drawing on his experience in the region, Theros challenges simplistic narratives about Iran, rejecting the idea that it is a “failing petro-state” and instead emphasizing the resilience of its revolutionary system despite decades of sanctions. The discussion also explores how distorted perceptions, the complexities of the Iranian diaspora vs. the population on the ground in Iran, and enduring currents of Orientalism continue to undermine sound U.S. policymaking.

A key historical parallel in the conversation, albeit only briefly covered, is the Iraq War and the role of controversial exile figure Ahmed Chalabi. Theros recounts meeting Chalabi in Jordan and coming away deeply skeptical of him—a judgment that history would largely vindicate. Chalabi, later convicted of bank fraud in Jordan and widely criticized as a fabricator of intelligence, played a central role in promoting false claims about weapons of mass destruction that helped justify the 2003 invasion of Iraq. Many critics would later describe him as a “conman” who misled policymakers and the public in the run-up to war. Theros believes something similar may be at play with the hoisting up of Reza Pahlavi, Iran's exiled monarchic son, as a possible "transitional" figure/leader of a post-Islamic Republic Iran.

The episode also offers a comparative analysis of the Iraq and Iran wars. While both conflicts are shaped by flawed assumptions and ideological pressures, Theros argues that the current Iran war may be even more dangerous. The Bush administration, however misguided, at least operated with a defined (if deeply flawed) strategic framework for regime change in Iraq. By contrast, the present conflict appears to lack any coherent long-term plan, increasing the risks of escalation, economic disruption, and unintended consequences across the region.

All this and more on the latest edition of Parallax Views.

Recorded 3-15-2026

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On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest Wahid Azal—an independent scholar of Islamic esotericism, Sufi mystic, and founder of the Fatimiya Sufi Order—joins us to unpack the rapidly escalating Iran War and its potentially seismic consequences for the global economy and geopolitical order.

Azal, a multilingual scholar educated in the United States and Australia who specializes in Islamic mystical and occult traditions, offers a deeply heterodox perspective shaped by both spiritual insight and geopolitical analysis. At the center of our conversation is his stark warning: “Iran has got a loaded gun to the head of the global economy, standing in the Strait of Hormuz.” We explore what this means in practical terms, as Iran has effectively rendered the Strait of Hormuz—through which a significant portion of the world’s oil supply flows—functionally constrained, even absent a formal closure. With oil prices already spiking in the wake of the conflict, the implications for global markets, energy security, and everyday life are profound.

From there, we delve into why Azal believes Iran holds a strategic upper hand in the conflict. He argues that the decentralized and networked nature of the Iranian state—particularly its military and security apparatus—makes any attempt at “decapitation futile, complicating conventional U.S. and Israeli war doctrines. As such the Ayatollah's assassination have not been able to topple the Islamic Republic and the IRGC remains in tact. We also examine how economic chokepoints give Iran tools that extend far beyond traditional battlefield metrics and any attempt to repeat the 1953 coup.

The conversation also takes a critical turn toward diaspora politics. Azal challenges what he sees as the largely uncritical support for war among segments of the Persian diaspora, arguing that these voices often fail to represent the realities and sentiments of Iranians داخل ایران (inside Iran). Relatedly, we discuss what he calls the “mirage of monarchical salvation” surrounding Reza Pahlavi, and why he views such narratives as detached from the political complexities on the ground.

Importantly, Azal outlines a position that resists easy categorization: while he expresses support for Iran’s women’s rights and democratic movements, he simultaneously defends the Islamic Republic against what he sees as an aggressive war waged by the United States and Israel. This tension—between internal critique and external opposition—forms a key throughline of the discussion.

All this and much more in a wide-ranging, provocative conversation that challenges conventional narratives about Iran, war, and the global system.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, I’m joined by historian and political analyst Michael F. Duggan for a wide-ranging discussion on realism in international relations, the legacy of George Kennan, and the emerging multipolar world order.

We begin with a deep dive into the thought of Cold War strategist George Kennan. Duggan explains what “realism” actually means in the context of foreign policy and why Kennan’s ideas are frequently misunderstood or oversimplified. We discuss Kennan’s skepticism toward ideological crusades in foreign policy, his emphasis on historical and cultural understanding in diplomacy, and the ways in which his outlook reflected a certain elitism that remains controversial today. At the same time, Duggan argues that Kennan remains an indispensable thinker for understanding the limits of power and the dangers of moralistic or utopian approaches to global politics.

From there, the conversation turns to Duggan’s argument that the era of American global primacy is drawing to a close. Drawing on his article “Realism and Regionalism: The United States in a Multipolar World,” Duggan outlines his case for a shift toward what he calls moderate realism and a strategic reorientation in which the United States consolidates its role as a regional power centered on North America rather than attempting to maintain global hegemony.

We also discuss Duggan’s critique of the ideological consensus that has dominated U.S. foreign policy since the end of the Cold War, including both neoconservative and liberal interventionist approaches, and why he believes they have contributed to imperial overstretch.

In the latter portion of the conversation, we examine Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s recent speech at Davos calling for a new role for “middle powers” in global politics. Duggan analyzes Carney’s proposal for greater strategic autonomy among mid-sized nations and explores whether coalitions of middle powers could realistically balance the influence of larger states in an increasingly multipolar system.

All that and more in this conversation about realism, strategy, and the shifting architecture of global power.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest Jon Hoffman, a research fellow in defense and foreign policy at the Cato Institute specializing in U.S. Middle East policy and political Islam, joins us to discuss the Trump administration’s risky aerial campaign against Iran—dubbed Operation Epic Fury—and the troubling lack of clarity surrounding the war’s objectives.

In our conversation, Jon and I examine what appears to be a startling degree of thoughtlessness behind this preemptive war. While the U.S. has already killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic Republic itself remains intact, and the broader strategic goalposts seem to shift by the day. Pete Hegseth, the Trump administration’s Pentagon chief, insists this is not a regime-change war, while Donald Trump simultaneously signals that he intends to play a role in determining Iran’s future leadership. The result: mixed signals, strategic ambiguity, and no clear exit strategy or endgame.

At one point in the discussion Jon remarks, “We’ve seen this movie before.” The line captures a central theme of our conversation: the sense that the United States is once again embarking on a war whose consequences are poorly understood and whose goals are constantly shifting. From the quagmire of the Vietnam War to the long and costly interventions in the Iraq War and the War in Afghanistan, and the destabilizing aftermath of the 2011 NATO intervention in Libya, recent history offers numerous examples of military campaigns launched with confidence but ending in chaos, instability, or strategic failure.

Jon warns that nobody really knows what happens next—and he suspects the administration doesn’t either.

We discuss the many potential consequences of this conflict: a massive refugee crisis, further polarization within the United States, terrorist blowback and radicalization, rising gas prices, and broader regional instability. We also examine how the war was launched without congressional approval and why United States Congress has thus far failed to meaningfully challenge the executive branch’s decision to initiate hostilities.

Along the way we explore troubling precedents already emerging in the prosecution of the war—including the destruction of an Iranian ship in international waters—and how the preemptive nature of the campaign risks reinforcing global perceptions of the United States as a rogue state. We also discuss the role of the Israel lobby, a fossilized foreign policy establishment still obsessed with maintaining U.S. primacy, and the unusual coalition—ranging from libertarians and leftists to Resistance liberals neoconservatives like Bill Kristol—that has emerged in opposition to Trump’s conduct of the war.

Other topics include comparisons between Israel’s war in Gaza and Operation Epic Fury, the shaky legal and moral foundations of the conflict (including Karoline Leavitt’s vibes-based claim that “President Trump felt there was an imminent threat”), the absence of a clear casus belli, and the historical lesson that bombing populations rarely liberates them from authoritarian regimes.

The bottom line? A massive geopolitical gamble has been taken—and no one knows where it leads next.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, returning for his monthly visit, journalist and geopolitical analyst James M. Dorsey of The Turbulent World joins us to unpack what the escalating Iran war means—and what it reveals about Donald Trump’s muscular foreign policy doctrine.

At the heart of our conversation is a striking reality: Tehran may be the first major state actor to flatly refuse Trump’s pressure tactics. As Dorsey explains, Trump has repeatedly relied on coercive threats and brinkmanship to extract varying degrees of compliance from adversaries and allies alike. Iran, however, has effectively said “no.” Whether one supports or opposes the Islamic Republic, Dorsey argues this moment is geopolitically significant because it directly tests the credibility of Trump’s “might-is-right” approach.

Drawing on his latest analysis, Dorsey contends that Iran gambled Washington would prefer a limited strike rather than risk a prolonged regional conflict—a bet that may have been a miscalculation but still represents an unprecedented challenge to Trump’s playbook. Even the killing of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, he cautions, does not automatically translate into regime collapse or strategic victory.

We also dig into the growing debate over who bears responsibility for the war. Responding to claims amplified in some reporting that Gulf states pushed events toward conflict, Dorsey urges listeners to treat the “blame the Gulf” narrative with a heavy grain of salt. While Gulf monarchies remain deeply wary of Iran’s missile program and regional network of allies, he emphasizes that many of them have strong incentives to avoid a wider war that could leave their own territory and energy infrastructure exposed.

The conversation explores the limits of regime change by airpower and what this war means to Washington, Tehran, and Israel. Ultimately, Dorsey suggests the real benchmark may be far narrower than public rhetoric: regime survival for Iran versus clearly defined—and achievable—objectives for the United States.

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On this edition of Parallax Views, returning guest Ori Goldberg—Israeli dissident, former academic, and Middle East analyst—joins the program to discuss the rapidly escalating U.S.–Israel war on Iran and why he believes the conflict was both avoidable and dangerous. He gives a "View from Israel" on the events we see unraveling.

From his vantage point inside Israel, Goldberg characterizes the current military campaign as a war of choice and an illegal war of aggression. He argues that despite official justifications framed around security concerns and Iranian “liberation,” the underlying motivations of both Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are more complex—and potentially at odds.

A key focus of the conversation is Goldberg’s provocative claim that Trump and Netanyahu are not as aligned as commonly portrayed. While public optics suggest tight coordination, Goldberg contends that personal ambition, ego, and strategic calculation may be creating quiet fissures between Washington and Jerusalem. He suggests Trump has “succumbed to an urge to gamble” on Iran in pursuit of historical legacy, even as officials like Pete Hegseth publicly insist the conflict is not aimed at regime change—something Goldberg believes Netanyahu may view differently.

The discussion also explores how the war is being perceived within Israel itself. Goldberg argues that many Israelis are operating from a distinct internal logic that blends genuine security fears with a belief that military action could help “free” Iranians. This, he says, reflects deeper ideological currents within Israeli society, including what he describes as forms of Jewish exceptionalism that shape public opinion.

Beyond geopolitics, the conversation tackles sensitive but crucial distinctions between American Jewish and Israeli perspectives on Israel, emphasizing how identity, diaspora experience, and political culture diverge in important ways. Goldberg stresses that criticism of state ideology must be carefully distinguished from antisemitism, and the episode examines how debates over exceptionalism, chauvinism, and ethnonationalism play out across different communities.

All that and much more on this edition of Parallax Views.