Episode overview

In this episode of Investments Unplugged, hosts Kevin Headland and Macan Nia mark International Women’s Day by exploring longevity through the lens of women and financial preparedness. They’re joined by Director, Multi-Asset Solutions Erica Camilleri, who shares thoughts and research on why longevity risk is higher for women, how today’s macroeconomic backdrop (including higher cross-asset correlations and persistent inflation) can amplify retirement risks, and what investors can do—through better planning, appropriate risk-taking, and sound advice—to reduce the odds of outliving their savings.

Key topics & insights

1. Longevity risk and why it’s higher for women

• Financial shortfall risk gap — Manulife research found that women in Canada face a higher risk of experiencing financial shortfalls in retirement than men do (34% vs. 29%).
• It’s not just living longer — Longevity risk stems from a mix of longer (and rising) life expectancies, plus structural and social factors that can reduce lifetime savings and increase retirement vulnerability.

2. Health, wealth, and “longevity preparedness”

• Health and wealth are intertwined — The conversation emphasizes that longevity preparedness isn’t only about financial issues; for example, poor health can worsen retirement outcomes and vice versa.
• New tools and frameworks — The “longevity preparedness index” is designed to measure readiness to thrive while aging in retirement and is expected to expand into Canada in coming years.

3. The role of incentives and behaviour change (and why it matters for outcomes)

• Incentives can drive better habits — The episode highlights research over decades indicating that specific goals outperform vague “do your best” goals and discusses how incentive-based programs can encourage healthier behaviour (and, by extension, better long-term outcomes).

4. Structural inflation is still a long-term retirement risk

• Inflation has moderated cyclically but remains structurally higher — Even if inflation trends toward central bank targets, the episode argues households are still living with a higher price level and that long-run inflation may settle in the mid-to-high 2% range rather than the pre-pandemic norm.
• Retirement math is sensitive to small inflation shifts — A modest upward shift in expected inflation (example discussed: +40 bps) can materially raise required savings/asset levels for retirement (example cited: a 30-year-old might need ~19% more assets).

5. Portfolio construction challenges: higher correlations and concentration risk

• Diversification is harder when correlations rise — The hosts discuss higher correlations within equities and between equities and fixed income, plus increased market concentration—factors that can make portfolios more vulnerable to shocks.
• Longevity risk is amplified by portfolio risk — In a “fluid” market backdrop, managing drawdowns and sequence-of-returns risk becomes more important for sustaining long retirements.

6. Mitigating longevity risk: saving earlier, compounding, and appropriate risk

• Start early; small changes matter — The conversation stresses the power of compounding and the outsized impact of starting earlier (even with small incremental improvements).
• Avoid being overly conservative — The episode argues many investors (especially in defined contribution plans) are too conservative, and that growth asset exposure is critical to reducing shortfall risk over multi-decade retirements.
• Rethinking retirement glidepaths — Erica explains their approach avoids a static asset allocation through retirement, allowing for more growth exposure early in retirement given retirements can last decades.

7. Advice, planning, and using the right tools (including RRSPs)

• Financial advice early helps — A repeated theme is that advice earlier in life helps investors understand opportunities, risks, and the need for money to last throughout retirement (and potentially leave a legacy).
• Tax-advantaged tools matter — The hosts reference prior discussions on RRSP benefits and how tax savings can compound and support retirement resilience.

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Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

• Plan for a longer retirement than you think: Build your plan around the possibility of a multi-decade retirement (the episode references retirements that could stretch to ~40 years).
• Don’t ignore inflation in long-range assumptions: Stress-test your retirement plan for slightly higher long-term inflation; even small changes can require meaningfully higher savings.
• Prioritize time in the market (compounding): If you’re early in your career, focus on starting now—small contribution increases made earlier can have an outsized impact later.
• Be deliberate about risk—not automatically conservative: Review whether your portfolio is too cautious for your horizon (including early retirement), since insufficient growth can increase shortfall risk.
• Diversify with today’s correlation regime in mind: Recognize that diversification may be less reliable when equity/fixed income correlations rise; ensure your portfolio isn’t overly concentrated in a few exposures.
• Use advice and tax tools to improve outcomes: Consider getting financial advice earlier and make full use of retirement vehicles (e.g., RRSPs) where appropriate to improve after-tax compounding.
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Links & Resources

• Listen to the episode:Investments Unplugged Podcast
• Learn more about Manulife Investments:Manulife IM Canada

Share & Subscribe

If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.

For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

Episode 113: 2025 in the rearview—are markets in for another strong year?

Hosts:

Kevin Headland (Co-chief Investment Strategist)

Macan Nia (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Special guests:

Emily Roland (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Matt Miskin (Co-Chief Investment Strategist)

Episode highlights

• 2025 in review:

• The team discusses the strong performance of markets in 2025, including the

TSX’s impressive 24% return despite a challenging economic backdrop in Canada.

• Key market drivers:

• The role of momentum trading, trend-following strategies, and AI exuberance.

• The ongoing influence of the crypto trade.

• Discrepancies between Canada’s economic data and TSX performance.

• Looking ahead to 2026:

• Will the trends of 2025 continue, or is a shift on the horizon?

• The importance of sentiment as we enter the new year—are markets priced for

perfection?

• Why investing in companies is not the same as investing in the broader economy.

• Risks and opportunities:

• Potential risks for the Canadian economy, especially regarding banks and

financials.

• The importance of being prudent and keeping an eye on domestic economic

indicators.

• The impact of investor confidence and employment on market flows.

• Actionable insight:

Information à usage interne - Internal

• The team provides practical considerations for investors as they position

portfolios for 2026.

• Encouragement to review the team’s full 2026 outlook, available on the Manulife

Investments website.

Additional information

• Subscribe on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or your favorite platform to stay up to date.

• Listeners are encouraged to rate, share, and reach out with questions or feedback.

Episode overview

In this special episode, hosts and Co-Chief Investment Strategists Kevin Headland and Macan Nia welcome Nathan William Thooft, Chief Investment Officer for Multi Assets and Equities at Manulife Investments. Nate shares his global perspective on markets, asset allocation, and the evolving investment landscape, with insights tailored for Canadian investors.

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Key topics & insights

1. U.S. economic outlook: resilience amid uncertainty

· No imminent recession expected—Nate explains that while recent U.S. labor market data has softened, it’s not likely a signal for an imminent recession. The U.S. economy’s balance between manufacturing and services helps offset sector-specific weaknesses.

· Policy uncertainty—Earlier legislative and tariff changes have caused “paralysis” in company decision-making, but clarity is expected to improve economic data in coming months.

· New paradigm—The severity of future U.S. recessions may be more muted due to the economy’s diversification.

2. Inflation & tariffs: what’s really happening?

· Tariff impact delayed—Studies show tariffs typically take up to a year to affect inflation. Many imports are exempt, and companies are absorbing costs, leading to lower-than-expected inflationary effects.

· Substitution effect—Companies are shifting imports to countries with lower tariffs, further dampening inflation pressures.

3. Regional equity markets: Europe & Asia

· Europe’s outperformance—European equities have surprised with strong returns in 2025. Nate attributes this to a sentiment shift away from the U.S. amid geopolitical uncertainty, but sees it as opportunistic rather than a long-term trend.

· Active vs. passive management—Active management is especially valuable in regions like Europe and Asia, where opportunities are less covered.

· China’s mixed signals—Despite strong equity performance and policy support, China’s fundamentals (consumer spending, industrial production) remain weak. Nate is cautiously optimistic, citing potential in technology and AI, and improving sentiment.

4. Asset allocation: equities vs. fixed income

· Modest equity overweight—Manulife portfolios remain overweight equities, reflecting solid fundamentals despite stretched valuations.

· Fixed income caution—Less conviction in long-duration fixed income due to changing yield curve dynamics and rising term premiums.

· Diversification beyond 60/40—Nate advocates for broader diversification, including alternative assets, to manage risk.

5. Private Assets & Alternatives

· Democratization of privates—The trend toward making private assets (infrastructure, private credit, real estate) accessible to retail investors is accelerating, as seen in recent industry partnerships.

· Role in portfolios—Private assets offer diversification and potential downside protection, especially when traditional fixed income may be less effective.

6. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in asset management

· Efficiency & speed—AI is transforming research, data analysis, and commentary writing, but won’t replace portfolio managers who bring creativity and intellectual capital.

· Research revolution—AI enables analysis of vast data sets, improving productivity and decision-making.

7. Cryptocurrency: a legitimate asset class?

· Growing acceptance—Nate views crypto as a legitimate asset class, though volatility and regulatory uncertainty mean exposures should remain modest and client-specific.

· Regulatory trends—As demand grows, policy is likely to become more accommodating.

8. Career advice for aspiring portfolio managers

· Decisiveness—Don’t wait for perfect information—make decisions with 60–80% of the data to avoid missing opportunities.

· Passion & objectivity—Be passionate about investing, but unemotional in decision-making. The ability to cut losses and remain objective is crucial for success.

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Actionable takeaways for Canadian investors

· Stay diversified—Consider global opportunities and alternatives beyond traditional stocks and bonds.

· Monitor policy impacts—Watch for delayed effects from tariffs and monetary policy.

· Embrace active management—Especially in regions with less coverage and more inefficiencies.

· Explore private assets—As access expands, these can enhance portfolio resilience.

· Leverage technology—AI will increasingly support research and efficiency, but human insight remains essential.

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Links & Resources · Listen to the episode: Investments Unplugged Podcast · Learn more about Manulife Investments: Manulife IM Canada

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Share & Subscribe

If you enjoyed this episode, please share it with your network and subscribe for future insights on markets, investing, and portfolio strategy.

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For informational purposes only. This episode does not constitute investment advice. Please consult a qualified advisor before making investment decisions.

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Show notes prepared by Investments Unplugged Podcast Team, September 2025.