We recorded this episode in the middle of one of the most consequential moments in the history of this region. In this episode, we ask the question on everyone's mind: "Do the Gulf States Have a Future?" Not in the next news cycle, but in the next generation.

We look at what the current war on Iran has exposed: the structural fragilities of these states, their rentier economies, their tiny citizen populations, and their deep dependence on migrant labour.

And we talk about why states under duress don't reform - they just become more of what they already are. Also, if you're watching this on YouTube - KULNA is our new editorial platform for longform thinking about power, resistance, and what comes next. Visit the link below to support us: kulna.co

It's been four years since our last episode — and we're back with something bigger.

In this episode, recorded before the ceasefire announcement, Iyad El-Baghdadi and Ahmed Gatnash break down the ongoing U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran - a war that looks irrational from Washington, but it starts to make sense as an Israeli-driven war the United States was pulled into.

We trace the settler-colonial psychology behind Israeli strategic thinking, how October 7th shattered the illusion of a managed conflict with the Palestinians, and why Israel is now locked into open-ended war with no off-ramp — driven not by one leader but by a broad political consensus and a fear that the window of unconditional American support is closing.

We also look at Iran's regime resilience, why external attack tends to strengthen rather than weaken the IRGC's grip, and what a prolonged war means for Gulf economies built on foreign labour and energy rents. No clear positive outcome is on the horizon, and regional escalation remains a serious risk.

This episode also marks the beginning of something new. The Arab Tyrant Manual is becoming part of Kulna — a new editorial platform for long thinking about power, resistance, and what comes next.

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To find our more about Kulna and become a founding member: https://kulna.co/subscribe/

As Russia's invasion of Ukraine caused global energy prices to spike, the US looked to its traditional gulf partners to increase supply. However, Mohamed bin Zayed and Mohamed bin Salman chose not to - refusing President Joe Biden's calls and even raising prices, whilst making overt gestures of support for Putin.

In this episode, Iyad El-Baghdadi and Ahmed Gatnash discuss how the war in Ukraine has pushed a wedge between the US and its traditionally-close gulf allies, and what this means for the future of the Middle East.

Episode timetags:

02:40 - The economic context of Russia's invasion of Ukraine

04:40 - Alternative sources of energy & autocracies

08:00 - The gulf oil producers are acting differently

09:30 - Why Saudi's reaction is a bad idea

12:30 - Changing dictatorships through economic engagement

14:00 - Europe's reaction to war & the dictators' underestimations

18:20 - The shift in relationships from unconditional to transactional

21:00 - MBS taking political changes personally

23:55 - The Atlantic interview, disinformation, and MBS' continued self-owns

27:30 - US security guarantee isn't in doubt, but it's not enough

33:25 - The failure of dictatorship as a management system

38:10 - Is Saudi Arabia maximising profit for its national budget?

Support the Arab Tyrant Manual on Patreon: https://patreon.com/kawaakibi

Our other podcast, Intergalactic Tarboush: http://tarboush.co/

In this episode, Ahmed Gatnash speaks to Elham Saudi, co-founder and director of Lawyers for Justice in Libya, about the fight for accountability and how human rights defenders can work towards accountability in areas that are ordinarily pushed to the sidelines.

Elham can be found on Twitter (@elham_lfjl) and at libyanjustice.org (@LibyanJustice). They publish the Libya Matters podcast, and created the Ali Nouh fund, which provides emergency assistance to human rights defenders who are at risk due to their work. You can donate to the fund here: https://cafdonate.cafonline.org/15937#!/DonationDetails

Support the Arab Tyrant Manual on Patreon, where you can find a bonus clip from this conversation: https://patreon.com/kawaakibi

In this episode, Iyad and Ahmed interview each other about their own book, The Middle East Crisis Factory. They discuss the origin and context of the book, detail various struggles that were overcome through the writing process, and share their reflections on the project 12 months on from its publication.

Buy The Middle East Crisis Factory: https://menacrisisfactory.com/

Support the Arab Tyrant Manual on Patreon: https://patreon.com/kawaakibi

Our other podcast, Intergalactic Tarboush: http://tarboush.co/

Episode timetags:

03:15 - What was your motivation in writing the book?

13:40 - Were you trying to influence policy?

19:35 - Why was this difficult to write for you?

20:20 - A quick summary of the "Vicious Triangle"

29:40 - What do you like about the book and what did you dislike?

34:50 - Which part of the book was most important to you?

38:15 - What would you do differently if you wrote it again?

40:00 - Who do you want this book to be read by?

41:50 - What do you want the reader to walk away having understood?

45:30 - If this book is the start of a conversation, what would you want that conversation to be?

49:00 - What worries you about this book, as the author?

This is a repost of an interview on the Gaslit Nation podcast, hosted by Sarah Kendzior and Andrea Chalupa. Iyad discusses the origin of the Middle East Crisis Factory book, the context of the Middle East's struggle for democracy in the world, and how that shapes the work of Kawaakibi Foundation.

Find the Gaslit Nation podcast online: https://www.gaslitnationpod.com/ and on Twitter: @sarahkendzior, @AndreaChalupa and @gaslitnation

Buy The Middle East Crisis Factory: https://menacrisisfactory.com/

Support the Arab Tyrant Manual on Patreon: https://patreon.com/kawaakibi

Iyad and Ahmed discuss human rights and political activism around the world, and why it seems to fail so often.

Follow us on Twitter @ArabTyrantMan, and join our Patreon to support our work and gain access to exclusive clips and pre-release episodes: https://patreon.com/kawaakibi

Episode Time tags:

2:00 – Feelings of pointlessness in human rights activism

4:30 – "Folk politics"

6:00 – Trump, pandemic & a new phase in geopolitics

10:00 – How do we continue human rights work into the future

16:30 – Creating solutions & tools

20:00 – Incrementalism vs radical change

26:00 – Centring people, not policy

31:30 – Outdated outlooks & ineptitude

36:00 – Climate change as a global crisis

41:00 – Changing politics & spheres of influence

43:00 – Legal challenges, boycotts & sanctions

50:00 – Establishing a theory of change

56:00 – Raising awareness vs creating change

59:00 – Thinking systemically rather than specifically

1:01:00 – Demonstrating leadership in human rights

A continuation of the previous episode, Iyad and Ahmed discuss new changes in world politics, human rights activism and the podcast!

Follow us on Twitter @ArabTyrantMan and join our Patreon to support our work and gain access to exclusive clips and pre-release episodes.

Episode timestamps:

0:30 - The growth of Arab Tyrant Manual

5:00 - Overhauling the western democratic paradigm

10:00 - Evolving from defensive human rights work into active powerbuilding

14:30 - Understanding & targeting trauma in the MENA

17:20 - The scope of ATM; looking back, looking forward

21:00 - Updates on podcast releases and publications

23:00 - Redefining 'long-term' objectives

27:10 - Developments in our content; shifting to visual media

29:20 - A message of gratitude to our audience

Iyad and Ahmed kickstart the podcast again after a long hiatus - with updates on various developments at the Kawaakibi Foundation, in their personal lives and in global human rights.

Follow us on Twitter @ArabTyrantMan and join our Patreon to support our work and gain access to exclusive clips and pre-release episodes.

Episode timestamps:

0:30 - Intro to episode

1:30 - Changes to ATM, plus Intergalactic Tarboush, a new podcast!

3:00 - Why we went off the radar - being hunted by MBS

7:55 - New book - 'The Middle East Crisis Factory'

8:45 - Personal updates - graduating PTSD

10:00 - Growing from small team to organisation - financial sustainability

15:15 - Changes in global politics - Trump, Israel, Sudan

23:55 - Mohammad Bin Salman and changes in perception

25:15 - US withdrawal from the Middle East

32:00 - Updates on China - socioeconomics and power

33:00 - Looking forward - global crises and revolutions - maintaining momentum