India’s elections are underway! What does the future hold for the world’s largest democracy? Will the election results impact India-China relations? What about India-US relations?

To discuss, ChinaTalk interviewed Dr. Raja Mohan, Director of the Institute of South Asian Studies at the National University of Singapore.

Co-hosting today is James Crabtree, author of The Billionaire Raj.

We get into:

• What the border disputes between China and India can tell us about the political economy of the two nations;
• The anti-imperial history that frames India-China relations;
• Modi’s election prospects and India’s spirit of democracy;
• What score Biden’s diplomatic team has earned in Southeast Asia;
• Criticisms of Modi and accusations of democratic backsliding;
• Opportinities for friction in the US-India relationship, including Trump tariffs, immigration, and Russia;
• Whether the US is making a “bad bet” on India, and how India is prepared to involve itself during an invasion of Taiwan.

Outtro Music: Jhoome Jo Pathaan Vishal-Shekhar, Arijit Singh, Sukriti Kakar, Vishal Dadlani, Shekhar Ravjiani, Kumaar https://open.spotify.com/track/6FAYpZ4jve8vpvTwUvjK6H?si=66c7c984fd52497cs

12 Bande 12 Bande - song and lyrics by Varinder Brar | Spotify

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The DOJ is now charged with protecting American data from foreign adversaries. This new proposed rule they recently issued is, according to one observer, “one of the most ambitious and sweeping new initiatives in national security law over the past few years.”

To discuss, we interviewed Devin DeBacker and Lee Licata of the Department of Justice’s National Security Division.

We get into:

• How adversaries plan to weaponize obscure data types — including geolocation data, DNA sequencing, and undersea cable transmissions;
• How China managed to purchase genomic data on millions of Americans through healthcare investments;
• Why black box data brokers keep records of who goes to casinos;
• How the DOJ plans to protect your data, and whether their plans can be thwarted by gridlock in Congress.

I’m excited to introduce a partnership with Policyware to bring affordable, expert-driven policy education to my audience. Starting May 14, Samm Sacks will be teaching a deep dive into China’s Digital Governance and its Global Implications.

Samm is an old friend of mine and a Senior Fellow at Yale Law School’s Paul Tsai China Center. She is a leading expert on China’s cybersecurity legal system, the U.S.-China technology relationship, and the geopolitics of data privacy and cross-border data flows. Check out below a show I did with Samm on ChinaTalk discussing China’s digital governance.

You’ll learn over several weeks as Samm delivers live classes, with options to listen on your own time. Policyware Deep Dives are designed to be attended alongside your job, and they will help you organize with your employer for cost sharing. Check out the show we did together on data issues late last year.

Help support ChinaTalk by registering for the deep dive here and thank you to Policyware for sponsoring today’s episode.

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Ryan Takeshita is the Chief Global Editor at PIVOT, a new media outlet in Japan focused on the emerging startup scene.

We get into:

• A stroll through recent economic history leading to today's 'boom times'
• Why more people are looking to leave traditional occupations for insurgent firms
• Challenges around demographics and immigration

Outtro Music:

Idol by Yaosobi https://open.spotify.com/track/1hAloWiinXLPQUJxrJReb1?si=36552bdc34cb4a73

Matsuri No Genzo by Hideo Shiraki and 3 Koto Girls https://open.spotify.com/track/6eTteH1zyZeQKZ2Mu7VC5d?si=230b3d1739d5417e

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To learn about Japan’s new economic national security policy, export controls, chip policy, lessons from history, and even space policy, we interviewed Kazuto Suzuki.

Suzuki-san is a professor at the University of Tokyo. He serves as an advisor to Japan’s Ministry of the Economy, Trade, and Industry (METI) as well as advising Japan’s space program. He served on the UN Security Council's Iran Sanctions Panel, and he also recently established the Institute of Geoeconomics at the International House of Japan. 

We get into…

• What Japan’s new economic national security law does, and what it means for global semiconductor supply chains;
• The state of multilateral export controls;
• Nippon steel, the US election, and cooperation between East Asian democracies;
• Historical examples of economic coercion, from the Qing Dynasty to FDR vs imperial Japan to the Senkaku islands;
• Japan’s goals for space commercialization;

… and more!

Co-hosting today is Arrian Ebrahimi, student at Yenching academy and author of the Chip Capitols Substack.

Outtro Music: Every Breath You Take/Theme from Peter Gunn as featured on the Sopranos The Sopranos - Every Breath You Take (youtube.com)

Cover photo: Toyohara Kuniteru III | Illustration of the Imperial Diet House of Commons with a Listing of all Members | Japan | Meiji period (1868–1912) | The Metropolitan Museum of Art (metmuseum.org)

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Just minutes after the Taiwan earthquake yesterday, Dylan Patel of SemiAnalysis, Doug O'Laughlin of Fabricated Knowledge, Jon of Asianometry and yours truly had a brief hang where we got into:

• Intel's process progress and rocky financial road ahead
• Reflections out of GTC
• Jensen's galaxy brain

Photo of the woman who saved Intel, Dr. Ann Kelleher, General Manager of Foundry Technology Development.

Outtro music: YELLOW黃宣 & 9m88 - 怪天氣 Strange Weather https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1n_i0JupwRA

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Straight from Tokyo, Japan: an exclusive with Amb. Rahm Emanuel.

Before his current posting as US ambassador to Japan, Rahm served as a senior advisor to Bill Clinton, multiple terms in the US House of Representatives, Obama’s first chief of staff, and the mayor of Chicago.

If nothing else, you can count on his gloves-off, no-holds-barred approach to politics — and he’s been no different when it comes to China. Notwithstanding reports that even officials in Biden’s NSC have told him to stop “taunting” China, Rahm has been consistently, uniquely willing to say out loud what virtually every other high-ranking US official doesn’t.

Of course, the ambassador — or, as his desk placard during his chief-of-staff days read, “Undersecretary for Go Fuck Yourself” — may take issue with that framing. His comments aren’t “critical,” Rahm says, but “truthful.”

This interview covers a ton of ground. On China:

• How the Biden administration is closing the chapter on “hub and spokes,” what tomorrow’s “latticework” architecture will look like, and what Asia-Pacific alliances might look like under a second Trump administration;
• The future of Japan-Korea, and a peek behind the curtain on how the historic Camp David summit materialized;
• Rahm’s “3 Cs” for China — calm, conflict, charm — and how US foreign-policy leaders should reckon the mutual inconsistencies among those three;
• And roads not taken by Xi: why Rahm thinks China’s entrepreneurial culture has taken a nosedive, and what China’s government today is most scared of.

And on politics and life:

• Why “diplomacy” and “politics” are the same thing — and why that’s a good thing;
• Whether the State Department suffers from a personality deficit, and what makes for a good ambassador;
• How to heal America’s body politic — post-Trump, post-Recession, post-GWOT;
• Why Rahm thinks “quality time” with kids is “BS,” and thoughts on raising kids as a time-crunched politician;
• And what Rahm thinks the biggest emerging threat to the world is.

I really enjoyed my trip to Japan, and I’d love a financial excuse to continue recording shows on the country. If you work at JETRO, METI, The Japan Foundation, Mitsubishi, Rakuten, etc. and are interested in seeing more deep coverage of Japan and US-China-Japan relations on this podcast, do reach out!

Outtro music: Tadao Hayashi Japanese Harp Trio's 1977 take on I Could Have Danced All Night Tadao Hayashi Harp Trio – The Impossible Dream 1977 (youtube.com)

Also from 1977, Tokai by Kaeko Onuki Tokai (youtube.com)

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Biotech. What is it? Why should you care? Does biotech really matter for national security? What are China’s biotech ambitions?

To find out, ChinaTalk interviewed Jason Kelly, the Chair and Vice Chair of the National Security Commission on Emerging Biotechnology. Jason is the Co-Founder and CEO of Ginkgo Bioworks, a publicly traded firm that provides a horizontal platform for cell programming. Michelle Rozo is currently Vice President of Technical Capabilities at In-Q-Tel, and she previously held positions in Biden’s NSC, the Department of Defense, and on the Hill.

Co-hosting today is Chris “CRISPR” Miller, author of Chip War.

We get into:

• The powerful science behind genetic engineering ;
• How the US government turned biotechnology into a $1 trillion industry over the course of the last fifty years;
• Why generative AI is destined to revolutionize synthetic biology;
• And whether China’s national biotech champions can leapfrog the US.



Outtro music: Suite Bergamasque: Clair de Lune, No. 3 (youtube.com)

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Is Congress for real this time?

To discuss the US domestic politics of the dramatic rollout and broader social, national, and geopolitical implications of the House's passage of a bill that would force Bytedance to divest from TikTok US, Ben Smith of Semafor joins the podcast.

Outtro music:

Olivia Rodrigo - Deja Vu 【Sped Up & reverb】 (youtube.com)

The Platters - Only You - Lyrics - YouTube

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How do you stand up an effective national AI project? Is the world prepared for the Reformation-level societal change AI could bring?

Matt Clifford, according to Politico Britain’s most powerful tech adviser, joins ChinaTalk to discuss! He served as Prime Minister Sunak's sherpa for the UK AI Summit, chairs ARIA, the UK's answer to DARPA, and co-founded Entrepreneur First, a startup incubator with a strong presence throughout Europe and Southeast Asia. 

We get into:

• Tech Diplomacy & the UK AI Safety Summit: How countries are waking up to the watershed moment at the advent of powerful new AI, and the surprising commonalities in China’s perspectives on AI safety. 
• Organizational Design at ARIA: What are the challenges creating a world-class science project in government? How can you attract the best people and create the right organizational culture for success?
• Open Source AI and the Global AI Race — How should we evaluate the approaches to AI across different countries and private actors? What’s the verdict on open source models?
• Preparing for monumental changes — and why history cautions against expecting business as usual, and how fiction can open our mind to the possibilities.

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Chinese Doomscroll, which faithfully records happenings from the wild west that is Weibo (China’s Twitter/X equivalent), won the ChinaTalk award for best China-focussed Substack on 2023. Today we have on the brain behind the newsletter: Molly, who’s been doomscrolling for us since early 2023. We discuss:

• Why Weibo keeps Molly up at night;
• Chinese elementary school kids’ academic prowess;
• How social issues gain attention on the trending list;
• Terrible bots;
• And what makes microblogging uniquely compelling.

Outtro music is 演员 by Joker Xue 薛之谦: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XKuL5xaKZHM

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How can AI change diplomacy?

To discuss the State Department’s options for AI integration, we interviewed the State Department's Deputy Chief Data and AI Officer, Garrett Berntsen. He served as an officer during two tours in Afghanistan and recently rotated off the NSC. He's optimistic diplomacy can be more effective with comprehensive, timely, and accurate data-driven analysis, and that AI will be part of achieving that mission.

We get into:

• How AI can streamline bureaucratic busy work
• The value of data-driven negotiation prep in diplomatic contexts
• The benefits of transparency in a democratic society
• What level of risk is appropriate for the civil service
• How close he is to getting ChatGPT into State
• The balance between transparency and secrecy in the age of big data
• How the Snowden leaks changed the State Department’s relationship with technology
• What the State Department can and can't import from the private sector

Thanks to the Hudson Institute and Andrew Marshall Foundation for supporting this podcast.

Outtro music: 國蛋 GorDoN - White Noise ft. 蛋堡 Soft Lipa https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=31ZM440owzw

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