Four years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the war has become a slow-moving conflict defined by massive losses and limited gains on the battlefield. This week, Elisa sits down with Seth Jones, President of the Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, to discuss findings from his latest report, Russia’s Grinding War: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power. Together they examine Russia’s staggering casualty numbers, the slow pace of its advance, and what these trends reveal about Russia’s long-term economic and geopolitical trajectory.

Seth Jones is President of the Defense and Security Department and Harold Brown Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)

References:

• Report: Jones, Seth G., and Riley McCabe. Russia’s Grinding War in Ukraine: Massive Losses and Tiny Gains for a Declining Power. Center for Strategic and International Studies, 27 Jan. 2026.
• VideoCast: Are Russia and Ukraine Headed to 2 Million Casualties? CSIS. Jan. 30 2026
• Stanford University's Global AI Vibrancy Tool
• The Warsaw Pact, 1955

A standoff between the Pentagon and one of the world’s leading AI companies is raising new questions about the limits of government authority. This week, Elisa sits down with Alan Rozenshtein, Associate Professor of Law at the University of Minnesota and Research Director at Lawfare, to unpack the dispute between the Department of War and Anthropic over the use of advanced AI tools. Together, they explore whether existing law can compel technology companies to cooperate with national security demands and what the Defense Production Act might mean in the age of artificial intelligence.

Alan Rozenshteinis an Associate Professor of Law at the University of Minnesota and Research Director at Lawfare

References:

• Endrias, Michael, and Alan Z. Rozenshtein. “Pentagon’s Anthropic Designation Won’t Survive First Contact with Legal System.” Lawfare, 2 Mar. 2026.
• The Defense Production Act
• DoD Directive 3000.09, “Autonomy in Weapon Systems,” November 21, 2012
• E.O. 14365, "Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence"
• 10 US Code 3252
• IEEPA
• NSLT, Ep. 392, "Empire AI: OpenAI’s Rise and the Race for Global Power with Karen Hao"
• NSLT, Ep. 399, "Crash, Bailout, or Breakthrough? The Future of America’s AI Bet"

As tensions rise and the United States surges military assets into the Middle East, a critical question emerges: what happens to a nuclear program if a government collapses? This week, Elisa sits down with David Albright, founder of the Institute for Science and International Security, to assess the risks surrounding Iran’s nuclear capabilities and the consequences of regime instability. Drawing on historical precedent and insights from his recent op-ed, they examine what sites must be secured, why advance planning is essential, and whether the U.S. and its allies are prepared to prevent sensitive nuclear material from falling into the wrong hands.

David Albright is founder and President of the non-profit Institute for Science and International Security in Washington, D.C

EVENT: Register for our in-person luncheon on March 5 in Washington, D.C., featuring journalist Jason Rezaian and attorney David Bowker on hostage diplomacy and the wrongful detention of Americans overseas. View the full program here.

References:

Albright, David, and Andrea Stricker. “The Nuclear Threat After Tehran Falls.” The Wall Street Journal, 2 Feb. 2026.

This week, we revisit a foundational conversation on the Insurrection Act, originally recorded in June 2020 with William Banks and Harvey Rishikof. Together, they trace the Act’s history, unpack the scope of presidential authority it confers, explain how it may be invoked, and examine the constitutional principles that should guide its use.

William Banks is former Chair of the Standing Committee on Law and National Security

Harvey Rishikof is Senior Counselor of the ABA Standing Committee on Law and National Security

EVENT: Register for our in-person luncheon on March 5 in Washington, D.C., featuring journalist Jason Rezaian and attorney David Bowker on hostage diplomacy and the wrongful detention of Americans overseas. View the full program here.

References:

• The Insurrection Act
• Posse Comitatus Act
• Banks, William C., and Stephen Dycus. Soldiers on the Home Front: The Domestic Role of the American Military. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press, 2016.
• Banks, William C. “Providing ‘Supplemental Security’–The Insurrection Act and the Military Role in Responding to Domestic Crises.” Journal of National Security Law & Policy, vol. 3, Dec. 15, 2009

In this News Roundup, Elisa unpacks the latest AI-driven developments making headlines—from Chinese financing across U.S. energy and data infrastructure to emerging battlefield AI systems and early research raising concerns about AI-generated pathogens. She also examines evolving strategies for powering data centers, the strategic implications of a potential SpaceX–xAI alignment, and how Anthropic’s latest model signals a new phase in the global AI race.

EVENT: Register for our in-person luncheon on March 5 in Washington, D.C., featuring journalist Jason Rezaian and attorney David Bowker on hostage diplomacy and the wrongful detention of Americans overseas. View the full program here.

References:

• NSLT Ep. 127, The Insurrection Act Today with William Banks and Harvey Rishikof
• Parks, B. C., Zhang, S., Escobar, B., Walsh, K., Fedorochko, R., Vlasto, L., et al. (2025). Chasing China: Learning to Play by Beijing’s Global Lending Rules. Williamsburg, VA: AidData at William & Mary

America’s relationship with Venezuela has long been shaped by power, politics, and law, often in uneasy combinations. This week, Elisa Poteat is joined by Brian Egan, partner at Skadden and former State Department Legal Adviser, to examine the legal foundations of U.S. engagement with Venezuela, from maritime interdictions and sanctions to questions of war powers and executive authority. Drawing on history, international law, and recent developments, they explore how past interventions continue to shape today’s national security decisions and what lawyers should be watching for next.

Brian Egan is a Partner in National Security, CFIUS, and International Trade at Skadden

References:

• EVENT: Join us for our upcoming luncheon, Hostage Diplomacy and the Rule of Law: The Wrongful Detention of American Citizens, on March 5 at the Army Navy Club in Washington, D.C.
• UN Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances, 1988
• UN Convention on the Law of the Sea
• The Maritime Drug Law Enforcement Act
• UN Charter Full Text
• S.J.Res.98 - A joint resolution to direct the removal of United States Armed Forces from hostilities within or against Venezuela that have not been authorized by Congress.
• The War Powers Resolution
• Reuters. “US Approves Possible Sale of Equipment, Services to Shift Peruvian Naval Base.” Reuters, 15 Jan. 2026
• Nantulya, Paul. "Mapping China’s Strategic Port Development in Africa." Africa Center for Strategic Studies, 10 Mar. 2025

As AI becomes central to national security, alignment itself may introduce new risks. This week, Elisa Poteat is joined by Dr. Michael Vaiana, Research Director at AE Studio, to examine how AI alignment, model testing, and system integration shape both defensive and offensive security capabilities. Together, they explore red teaming, data poisoning, under-researched risks, and what policymakers need to understand about how AI systems behave when deployed at scale.

Dr. Michael Vaianais a Research Director at AE Studio

References:

The Dwarkesh Podcast: Ilya Sutskever – We're moving from the age of scaling to the age of research. Nov. 25 2025.

In Part 2 of their discussion, Elisa Poteat and Josh Geltzer look beyond the NDAA to explore how executive authority, outbound investment restrictions, and state-level efforts are shaping the evolving framework for AI regulation and national security.

Joshua Geltzer is a Partner at WilmerHale, focusing on artificial intelligence, CFIUS, crisis management, cybersecurity and national security-related litigation.

References:

• The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (Full Text)
• Geltzer, Joshua A., et al. “What the NDAA Means for AI and Cybersecurity.” WilmerHale, 19 Dec. 2025
• California SB-53 – Artificial intelligence models: large developers (Full Text)
• E.O. 14365 – Ensuring a National Policy Framework for Artificial Intelligence
• Colorado SB24-205 – Consumer Protections for Artificial Intelligence
• NY State RAISE Act
• Texas Responsible Artificial Intelligence Governance Act

The latest National Defense Authorization Act marks a concrete step in how the Department of Defense is beginning to define, assess, and manage the use of artificial intelligence across its operations. This week, Elisa Poteat is joined by Josh Geltzer, partner at WilmerHale and former Deputy Assistant to the President, to break down what the NDAA outlines when it comes to AI governance. Together, they walk through new assessment frameworks and workforce initiatives: what Congress included, what it left out, and what that reveals about how AI is taking shape inside the national security apparatus.

Joshua Geltzer is a Partner at WilmerHale, focusing on artificial intelligence, CFIUS, crisis management, cybersecurity and national security-related litigation.

References:

• The National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2026 (Full Text)
• Geltzer, Joshua A., et al. “What the NDAA Means for AI and Cybersecurity.” WilmerHale, 19 Dec. 2025
• California SB-53 – Artificial intelligence models: large developers (Full Text)
• Geltzer, Joshua A., et al.“Transparency in Frontier Artificial Intelligence: Act SB-53 California Requires New Standardized AI Safety Disclosures.” WilmerHale Privacy and Cybersecurity Law Blog, 1 Oct. 2025

The year ahead points to a new era of technology-driven defense. This week, we share a keynote address from the 35th Annual Review of the Field of National Security Law CLE Conference titled “Arms, AI, and the Future of Defense.” Christian Brose, President and Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril Industries, examines how AI, autonomous systems, and commercial innovation are reshaping the defense ecosystem—and what it will take to sustain military advantage. Following opening remarks by Erik Swabb, moderator Mackenzie Eaglen joins Christian Brose for a wide-ranging discussion on acquisition reform, re-industrialization, the role of private capital, and the evolving dynamics of strategic competition.

Keynote remarks by Christian Brose, President and Chief Strategy Officer of Anduril Industries

Moderated byMackenzie Eaglen, Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute

Introductions by Erik Swabb, Partner at WilmerHale

References:

• Book: Brose, Christian. The Kill Chain: Defending America in the Future of High-Tech Warfare. Grand Central Publishing, 2020.
• Audio Recordings from the 35th Annual Review of the Field of National Security Law Conference

A handful of tech billionaires now wield outsized influence over the U.S. economy—and increasingly, over national security itself. This week, Elisa sits down with Justin Sherman, founder and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies and author of Navigating Technology and National Security, to unpack how advanced AI systems, high-powered chips, and global investment flows collide with U.S. security law. Using a provocative hypothetical, they explore the role of export controls, CFIUS, outbound investment screening, and bulk data regulations—and what happens when companies push right up against the boundaries of oversight.

Justin Sherman is the founder and CEO of Global Cyber Strategies, a Washington, DC-based research and advisory firm.

References:

• Sherman, Justin. Navigating Technology and National Security: The Intersection of CFIUS, Team Telecom, AI Controls, and Other Regulations. Wiley, 2025.
• McFaul, Cole, Sam Bresnick, and Daniel Chou. Pulling Back the Curtain on China’s Military-Civil Fusion: How the PLA Mobilizes Civilian AI for Strategic Advantage. Center for Security and Emerging Technology, September 2025. CSET