Nate Silver, Clare Malone, and Galen Druke — the hosts of Crooked Media's new show Still Counting — join Lovett to talk about the Senate races they find most interesting and Trump doing everything in his power to help Republicans lose the midterms. The crew, who you may remember from the FiveThirtyEight podcast, dives deep into the numbers, breaking down what polling errors we should expect this November, what kind of candidates overperform versus underperform the national average, and the science behind Nate's midterm election forecast model, FLIPR.

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Dozens of Republican lawmakers tell the press that they won't be attending Trump's midterm convention next week, citing a variety of unconvincing excuses, but the president seems unfazed by his party's lack of enthusiasm for more Trump, announcing Trump midterm ads, Trump coins, and the possibility he may rename the Strait of Hormuz to the Trump Strait. 

Dan and Jon preview the pity party and then react to Ed Markey's primary win over Seth Moulton, Kamala Harris brushing off red-state Democrats refusing her support, and the Democrats' new line of attack against the GOP — tying the construction of data centers to a tax provision in the Big Beautiful Bill. Then journalist Jasper Nathaniel stops by the studio to talk to Tommy about his reporting on violence in the West Bank.

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Weeks after a Republican campaign committee called AI data centers the "anchor hanging around" GOP candidates' necks, Trump weighs in to say that all Americans who oppose data center construction are "backwards and poor" — while he digs in on the trade war with Canada and the hot war with Iran. 

No wonder a leading Republican senator tells Politico that Trump — and the whole party — are "in serious trouble." Jon, Lovett, and Tommy try to make sense of Trump's choices at home and abroad, process the latest from the courts on mail-in voting and the White House ballroom, discuss Abdul El-Sayed's apology to Michigan's Jewish community, and react to the latest racist provocation from Laura Loomer. 

Then, Tommy sits down with Aaron Ford, the Democratic nominee for governor in Nevada.

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Jon sits down with legendary Democratic strategist David Plouffe to assess the race for the Senate and House and — why not? — look forward to 2028. The two talk through the new roster of early primary states and the political dynamics at play in each, and then do some (very) early handicapping of the rumored '28 contenders, from Kamala Harris to AOC and Jon Ossoff.

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With his approval rating 20 points underwater, Donald Trump previews his new midterm strategy: telling voters to pretend he’s on the ballot. Jon and Dan break down how that will play, react to the president renaming Lake Ontario to “Lake America,” and preview the Republican Party’s midterm convention. 

They also discuss Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s handling of a measles outbreak in Pennsylvania, new polling that has James Talarico up on Ken Paxton in Texas, and the unnerving number of Nazi-related scandals surrounding Mike Collins’s Senate campaign in Georgia. 

Then, Annie Andrews, the Democratic nominee for Senate in South Carolina, talks to Dan about the momentum building for her campaign now that Darline Graham has won the Republican nomination.

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As the Trump administration launches economic wars against Iran and Canada, the Washington Post reports on Trump's war with a third adversary: his weight. Jon, Tommy, and Lovett calculate Trump's BMI and then break down Scott Bessent invoking World War II when announcing new Iranian sanctions and Trump's new 50% tariffs on Canadian imports. They then turn to the midterms to discuss Susan Collins skipping out on a campaign event with JD Vance, Mike Rogers' attempt to distance himself from AIPAC, and Democrats' growing chances to flip Ohio blue. Then, Congressman Seth Moulton talks to Jon about the Massachusetts Senate primary and why he's decided to challenge Senator Ed Markey.

How can Democrats reach the elusive swing voter? Danielle Butterfield, executive director of Priorities USA, one of the most important PACs in Democratic politics, joins Dan to talk about Priorities' attempts to reshape how Democratic campaigns think about targeting voters on the internet. S

he breaks down their research into how voters are looking for information on search engines, why campaigns need to rethink how they talk to voters on YouTube, and how Priorities USA is getting out ahead of 2028 by trying to frame JD Vance and Marco Rubio in swing voters' minds before the presidential election begins. 

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MAGA world continues to express outrage over Jon Ossoff's "travel with Natalie" remarks, including an over-the-top rant from Scott Jennings that is being seen as the pundit's shameless audition for the open White House press secretary job. 

Dan and Jon react to Harp-gate, an MS NOW report that says Harp declined to seek a security clearance, and the New York Times reporting that Pete Hegseth brings his wife to highly sensitive meetings to "keep him out of trouble." 

They then turn to the midterms to unpack Angie Nixon's surprising defeat of Alexander Vindman in the Florida Democratic Senate primary, Dan Sullivan vs. Dan Sullivan in the Alaska general election, Darline Graham's historically embarrassing debate answer in South Carolina, and the impact the debate over data centers is having on the Ohio Senate election. 

Then, Josh Turek, the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa, stops by the studio to talk to Lovett about Democratic momentum in the Hawkeye State and how he convinced Barack Obama to shoot hoops in his viral endorsement video.

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Jon Ossoff attacks Trump for sidestepping his duties to "travel with Natalie," the White House aide known as Trump's "Human Printer," who has a suspiciously close relationship to the president.

Jon, Tommy, and Lovett discuss the new line of attack and the president's response, the end of the 60-day cease-fire agreement with Iran, Trump's decision to scale back joint military exercises with South Korea, and his reaction to the horrible conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln.

Then, they check in on the fight to take back the Senate, Ken Paxton stealing a $1,000 pen, Mary Peltola rejecting Kamala Harris's endorsement, and a new poll in Michigan that has Abdul El-Sayed down four points to Mike Rogers.

Then, Brian Poindexter, a union ironworker, talks to Tommy about his campaign to unseat disgraced congressman Max Miller of Ohio.

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Is AI set to destroy the world, or could it all just be a bubble? Why does Sam Altman want ChatGPT to monitor everything you do on your computer? Who is set to win the AI Game of Thrones? 

Casey Newton, editor of the tech newsletter Platformer and co-host of Hard Fork, joins Tommy to talk about the hype and doom surrounding the world-changing technology and to unpack what could happen to us now that AI models are learning to outsmart their creators. 

The two discuss the eccentric billionaires recklessly promoting the industry, how far behind the United States is when it comes to AI guardrails, and why Silicon Valley doesn't seem to understand what Americans actually want from the technology.

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Donald Trump hides in a catering truck and boards a secret plane to evade an Iranian security threat, leaving reporters, White House officials, and Secretary of State Marco Rubio alone aboard Air Force One to fend for themselves. 

Dan and Jon discuss the President's profile in courage and the rest of the latest, including a series of shocking new developments with ICE, the discourse around electability after David Crowley's unexpected primary win in Wisconsin, and Nate Silver's new midterm model, which is uncharacteristically optimistic about Democrats' chances of taking back both the House and Senate. 

Then, the guys bid farewell to press secretary Karoline Leavitt and debate which MAGA-world figures are most likely to replace her.

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