Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande sit down with longtime ESPN broadcasters Patrick McEnroe and Chris McKendry to go behind the scenes of Wimbledon. From Patrick's firsthand experience competing at the Championships to Chris's years anchoring ESPN's coverage, they share stories and insights you won't hear during the broadcast.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Then, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:04:15 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:05:30 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

1:06:45 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

1:07:15 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

1:07:45 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

1:09:30 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

1:10:00 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

1:10:45 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

1:11:15 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

1:13:00 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

1:13:30 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

1:14:00 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

1:15:00 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

1:16:30 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

1:17:15 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

1:18:00 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

1:18:45 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

1:19:15 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

1:20:00 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

1:20:45 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

1:22:00 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

1:22:45 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

1:23:15 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

1:23:45 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

1:25:30 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

1:26:00 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

1:27:00 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

1:27:45 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

1:28:15 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

1:29:45 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

1:30:15 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

1:31:15 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

1:32:00 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

1:32:30 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

1:33:00 How big should the Democratic tent be?

1:34:00 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

1:34:30 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

1:35:15 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

1:35:45 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

1:36:30 The president should be directly elected

1:37:00 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

1:37:45 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

1:39:15 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

1:40:00 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

1:40:30 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

1:41:15 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

1:41:45 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

1:42:15 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

1:44:30 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

1:45:45 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

1:46:15 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

1:47:00 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

1:47:30 Correlation between governor and senate races

1:50:15 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

1:50:45 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

1:52:00 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

1:52:45 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

1:53:30 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

1:54:30 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

1:55:15 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

1:56:00 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

1:57:30 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI

1:58:15 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

1:58:45 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

2:01:15 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

2:02:30 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

2:04:15 Favorite NBA team

2:05:45 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Andy Beshear

2:07:00 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

2:07:30 #5 Todd Achilles

2:10:00 #4 Dan Osborne

2:12:15 #3 Seth Bodnar

2:13:30 #2 Lisa Murkowski

2:14:30 #1 John Fetterman

2:17:15 Ask Chuck

2:18:15 Correction for answer on the last pod

2:20:30 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

2:27:45 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

2:31:00 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

2:34:30 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

2:39:45 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear — the popular two-term Democrat in a deep-red state and a name increasingly floated for 2028 — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation that opens with Kentucky's famous Fancy Farm Picnic and the increasingly countercultural idea that political disagreement shouldn't make people enemies. Beshear turns pointed on Mitch McConnell, who he says has been absent for six weeks without speaking to him, arguing that McConnell has a fundamental duty to level with the people of Kentucky about his condition.. Beshear notes the governor has no authority to declare a vacancy, calls on John Thune to help put the concerns to rest, and observes pointedly that if the situation were reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical about it — and that the right should arguably be angrier, since it's one fewer vote for the GOP agenda. Beshear reflects at length and with real emotion on the COVID years, which he calls the war of our time with a higher casualty rate than most Americans appreciate, credits Kentucky's expanded Medicaid with keeping the state from running out of hospital beds, and warning that Trump's "Big Beautiful Bill" will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky alone. He's sharply critical of Rand Paul for dragging Fauci into character-assassination hearings while staying conspicuously silent on McConnell, and reminds listeners it was Trump who ordered governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci.

The conversation turns to Beshear's political philosophy and the road ahead for Democrats. He rejects the "moderate" label in favor of "pragmatic," arguing that the constant battle to label everyone misses how much more complicated reality actually is. Beshear makes the case that Democrats don't win by becoming a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump, that the party needs to be the party of making the economy work again, and that it should champion structural reforms like campaign finance amendments, outlawing gerrymandering, and directly electing the president. He's visibly frustrated with Democrats who blame other Democrats when Republicans are the ones doing the damage — there's no time for "woulda-couldas," he argues, when Trump and the GOP are inflicting this much harm. As a leader in the Democratic Governors Association, Beshear lays out where he sees real opportunity: big resources heading into Georgia, the critical importance of Katie Hobbs winning in Arizona to ensure a fair 2028 election, and the DGA's willingness to spend anywhere it can win. He addresses the data center backlash as fundamentally rooted in anxiety about AI and big tech's failure to talk to the communities it moves into, and stays characteristically coy about his own 2028 ambitions.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Governor Andy Beshear joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Kentucky’s Fancy Farm Picnic & its role in politics

02:30 Picnic brings politicians from both sides of the aisle together

03:00 Having different political beliefs shouldn’t make you an “enemy”

03:30 Not attending the picnic to attend his son's final travel baseball game

05:15 Haven’t spoken to Mitch McConnell, he’s been absent six week

05:45 McConnell has a duty to level with the people of Kentucky

06:30 The governor doesn’t have authority to declare a vacancy

07:00 John Thune should help put the concerns to rest

08:45 The harm is that the senator refuses to level with his constituents

09:15 If situation was reversed, McConnell would be ruthlessly tactical

09:45 There’s one less vote for GOP agenda, the right should be more mad

10:45 Social media helps create a misinformation vacuum about McConnell

12:15 Democrats don’t win by being a Democratic version of McConnell or Trump

13:00 If he had to miss a week as governor, he’d feel obligated to inform the public

13:45 Lack of video of McConnell makes the public think he can’t do it

14:30 McConnell tried to beat him three straight times and failed

15:00 McConnell may end up tarnishing his legacy due to unexplained absence

15:45 Rand Paul dragged Fauci into a hearing, but mum on McConnell

16:30 Fauci hearings are just an exercise in character assassination

17:45 This feels like a personal vendetta from Paul against Fauci

18:30 Mike Pence set up a competent experienced team during COVID

19:00 Trump ordered the governors to shut down the economy, not Fauci

19:30 Vaccine was the fastest remedy created in human history

21:15 Made pandemic decisions based on what would save the most lives

21:45 Remember the death toll in Kentucky vividly

22:45 COVID was ultimate test of the parable of the good samaritan

23:30 COVID was the war of our time, with an even higher casualty rate

24:00 Teachers & educators needed to be in the first batch of vaccinations

25:30 Kentucky didn’t run out of hospital beds due to expanded Medicaid

26:00 Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill will close 35 hospitals in Kentucky

27:00 Doesn’t consider himself a “moderate”, but instead he’s “pragmatic”

27:45 Can be both pro-business and pro-worker

28:15 There’s a battle to label everyone, but reality is more complicated

28:45 How big should the Democratic tent be?

29:45 There’s space to do things that both sides agree on

30:15 Why are Democratic activists so mad at the establishment?

31:00 Democrats need to be the party of making the economy work again

31:30 Need amendments for campaign finance & outlawing gerrymandering

32:15 The president should be directly elected

32:45 Dems blame others Dems when Republicans are doing something wrong

33:30 Can’t do “woulda couldas” when Trump & GOP are doing so much damage

35:00 What’s the pitch in Wisconsin gubernatorial if both candidates are outsiders?

35:45 Joe Biden won on the idea of him being the most electable

36:15 Trump’s policies are hitting everyday Americans harder

37:00 Governor’s association plan to put big resources into Georgia

37:30 Believe that Democrats will flip the governor’s mansion in GA

38:00 Katie Hobbs has to win to ensure a fair election in Arizona in ‘28

40:15 Trump inspired Canadian boycotts that have hit the economy hard

41:30 Winner of the Wisconsin primary will come out stronger

42:00 Jocelyn Benson is a great candidate for Michigan

42:45 Amy Acton can win regardless of the senate race

43:15 Correlation between governor and senate races

46:00 Can Dems pull off gubernatorial upsets in Texas or Florida?

46:30 DGA will spend resources wherever they can win

47:45 Focused on winning gubernatorial races, then will ponder run in ‘28

48:30 Important to declare presidential candidacy early?

49:15 Dems primary calendar will produce candidate that can win everywhere

50:15 Do you consider Kentucky a southern state?

51:00 Could Israel splinter the party and make elections unwinnable?

51:45 Will Doug Jones get DGA help?

53:15 Data center backlash comes from concern about AI 

54:00 Big tech isn’t talking to the communities where they put data centers

54:30 Tech should be paying for their electricity & fair share of taxes

57:00 We need rational leaders, don’t know where AI/tech is going

58:15 Any effort to get an NBA franchise in Kentucky?

1:00:00 Favorite NBA team

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Republicans and the White House are frantically trying to manufacture headlines about the past precisely because the actual news of the present is terrible for the GOP, and because the very issues that got Trump elected are the ones he's now ignoring. Democrats are winning heading into the midterms, TChuck says; the only real question is by how much, which is exactly why Republicans are so desperate to feed their base culture-war red meat as a distraction. But the story Chuck argues is being dangerously underplayed is the Iran war, which is no longer a regional conflict at all: close to thirty countries have been directly involved, multiple nations have been hit, and the Iran and Ukraine wars have effectively merged through shared supply chains — Russia has launched thousands of Iranian-made drones at Ukraine, improved and manufactured them, and is now shipping them back to Iran, while Ukrainian air defense teams have been redeployed to the Middle East and the American stockpile of interceptor missiles has been so massively depleted that commanders are rationing them. He calls the war the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades, while rising oil prices help both Iran and Russia.. It's not World War III, he cautions, but it's genuinely hard to see how it ends, and Congress should be singularly focused on it and simply isn't. He then pivots to what he calls a politics of AI that hasn't been invented yet, where the public is way ahead of the politicians: 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months and like it, but the vast majority don't trust big tech or the AI companies, and the fierce backlash against data centers is really the manifestation of a deeper anger ever since tech companies stopped trying to improve lives and started maximizing engagement. The public isn't rejecting AI, he argues, it's rejecting the technologists, and Trump has planted himself firmly on the side of the tech companies over the public. He closes by lamenting that political energy is being spent on Fauci rather than pandemic preparedness — before quick hits on Todd Achilles getting a one-on-one race in Idaho, Seth Bodnar leading in Montana if the Democrat can be coaxed into dropping out, and the question hanging over Michigan: if Abdul El-Sayed loses, will it have been because of Mamdani's Israel speech? 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 Independents/Independent minded leaders who could reshape the U.S. Senate and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:45 Republicans & WH are trying to manufacture the headlines

03:15 Attacking Fauci, going after Smithsonian, relitigating 2020 election

04:00 These stories are about yesterday, modern headlines are bad for GOP

04:30 The issues that got Trump elected are the issues he’s ignoring

05:30 Dems are winning heading into midterms, question is by how much

07:00 Republicans are desperate to distract their base 

07:45 They believe the culture war red meat will turn out their base

08:45 The Iran war is being underplayed

09:45 There have been close to thirty countries directly involved in the war

10:45 Multiple countries have been hit directly during the war

11:30 This is not a regional war

12:00 Multiple countries have been directly involved in kinetic action

13:30 Multiple countries also involved in, or hosted peace talks

15:00 The Ukraine & Iran wars have merged through supply chains

15:45 Nervous that this conflict could go global

16:15 Russia has launched thousands of Iranian made drones at Ukraine

16:45 Russia improved & manufactured drones, now shipping them back to Iran

17:30 Ukraine air defence teams have been sent to the middle east

18:45 American stockpile of air defense missiles has been massively depleted

19:30 Military commanders are having to ration interceptor missiles

20:00 This war was the dumbest mistake a president has made in decades

21:15 Both conflicts are eating from the same plate

21:45 War caused a rise in oil prices, which helped both Iran and Russia

22:15 Beijing hasn’t been a bystander in these conflicts

23:15 Decapitation strikes have been proven not to work

24:00 Everyone is learning the same lessons, including America’s adversaries

24:45 This is not World War 3, but it’s hard to see how this war ends

25:45 Congress should be singularly focused on this war, and it isn’t

27:00 This started as an Iran/Israel dispute, now the world has been dragged in

28:15 The politics of AI hasn’t been invented yet, public is ahead of politicians

29:15 72% of Americans have used AI in the past three months & like using it

29:45 Vast majority of Americans don’t trust big tech or the AI companies

31:00 There’s a disconnect on AI between politicians the American public

31:45 Backlash against data centers is the manifestation of anger at big tech

32:45 Politicians want to manage backlash, not understand what’s behind it

35:00 Seeing political banners against data centers flying over Pensacola beach

37:15 The politicians are trying to play catch up on the politics of AI

37:45 Americans didn’t always distrust big tech

38:45 Tech companies stopped trying to improve lives, now maximize engagement

40:15 Americans feel we’re being optimized, not served by big tech

41:15 Protecting kids from tech is now an issue with massive bipartisan support

42:45 The public isn’t rejecting AI, they’re rejecting the technologists

44:30 Trump sides with the tech companies over the public

45:45 Politicians are captured by, or afraid of big tech cash in politics

48:00 Frustrating that political energy is spent on Fauci, not pandemic preparedness

48:30 Fauci became a vessel for every frustration about COVID

49:00 Fauci had one job, tell the public what the medical risks were

50:30 We had 2,000 Americans dying a day

51:30 We have to remember the conditions under which decisions were made

52:00 Rand Paul released thousands of pages of Fauci’s pandemic era journals

52:30 Pleading the 5th makes people look guiltier than they are

53:15 We learned Fauci loves media attention, but so does Rand Paul

54:15 Relitigating the origins of Covid doesn’t help prepare for the next pandemic

55:15 Rand Paul is undermining his own credibility by attacking Fauci

55:45 Todd Achilles will get a 1 on 1 race in Idaho

56:30 Seth Bodnar leading in Montana in 1 on 1, but Dem resisting dropping out

57:45 If El-Sayed loses in Michigan… was it because of Mamdani’s Israel speech?

1:01:30 ToddCast Top 5 Independents who could shape the senate

1:02:00 #5 Todd Achilles

1:04:30 #4 Dan Osborne

1:06:45 #3 Seth Bodnar

1:08:00 #2 Lisa Murkowski

1:09:00 #1 John Fetterman

1:11:45 Ask Chuck

1:12:45 Correction for answer on the last pod

1:15:00 Why haven’t we heard much about the people who tried to kill Trump?

1:22:15 Can Trump take the Qatari jet that’s had taxpayer $ spent on it?

1:25:30 What motivates those closest to Trump? Do they believe what they’re saying?

1:29:00 Can you explain the history of the term “lobbyist”?

1:34:15 Thoughts on the funding model of the BBC?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza dig into the biggest structural story of the 2028 race: the DNC's proposed new Democratic nominating calendar, which would open in South Carolina and run through Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Michigan, and Virginia. The guys make the case that a calendar starting in the least progressive early state and ending in another one looks engineered to stop a Bernie- or AOC-style insurgent — then debate who it actually helps. Chris sees a raised bar and a no-backup-plan trap for Kamala Harris; Chuck argues the map is a dream scenario for Wes Moore, with three heavily African-American states and two big military populations, while making the counterintuitive case that a splintered field could still let a progressive win South Carolina on a McCain-in-2008-style plurality. Along the way they weigh Buttigieg's veterans play, Mark Kelly's underrated prospects, Pritzker's self-funding edge, and why they'd have picked Arizona over Nevada.

From there they turn to an idea from Chuck's wife for reinventing the White House Correspondents' Dinner — hand the South Lawn to reporters and their families once a year, and keep the president and the TV cameras out of it — before tackling the deepening mystery around Mitch McConnell's health and monthslong public silence, and why the conspiracy theories collapse the moment you ask what the upside would be. Then it's on to the stakes of next week's Michigan Senate primary between Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens, which both sides are treating as the first existential fight over the Democratic Party's identity, and how Zohran Mamdani may have reshaped it. They close, as always, with the Nats: the looming trade deadline, why Foster Griffin is expendable but CJ Abrams isn't, and the case for building a brand around the team's young Black stars.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 The DNC's proposed 2028 Democratic nominating calendar

01:00 The six-state lineup 

01:42 Why South Carolina and Virginia matter most

02:56 Going first means six months of attention, not a week

03:52 Is South Carolina good for Kamala Harris?

04:54 Win the Black vote, win South Carolina

06:32 The Black vote isn't a monolith 

07:51 The calendar is a dream scenario built for Wes Moore

08:34 Is Jon Ossoff the real winner? The neighbor-state theory

10:45 A map that looks designed to stop a Bernie or AOC insurgency

12:24 The progressive math — how 15% could be enough

13:04 A four-state path for the left: fourth, first, second, first

14:41 South Carolina as a race-ender i

15:23 The McCain lesson: 42% as a loss in 2000, 33% as a win in 2008

17:43 Southern Super Tuesday was built to stop liberals 

20:08 Use the primary calendar to build the party

21:52 South Carolina's growth & the rural Black voters Democrats ignore

23:00 Why start where you can't win in November?

25:26 Why it's actually a good map for Pete Buttigieg

27:53 Why the expensive states favor self-funder JB Pritzker

30:21 Michigan gets its own week — just as the Israel issue splits the party

31:24 Why Nevada was picked for the interest groups

32:10 White House Correspondents' Dinner and why it felt so off

35:13 The pitch: hand over the South Lawn to the press corps 

36:18 Keep the cameras and the president out

38:16 Trump will always make it about himself 

40:13 The Mitch McConnell timeline

41:20 A proof-of-life photo — but not a proof-of-speech one

43:03 McConnell has always been intensely private 

45:23 The most important Democratic primary in the country

45:49 Why Abdul El-Sayed is all but running for president

46:56 Mamdani's "arrest Netanyahu" speech reshaped the movement

48:24 Gary Peters, Whitmer & the raised stakes

50:00 The morning-after narratives already written for either outcome

53:36 El-Sayed's real problem: little traction in the Black community

54:00 To the Nats: the trade deadline is the biggest day 

54:52 Trade Foster Griffin — but don't you dare trade CJ Abrams

57:03 The case for building a DC brand around Abrams & James Wood

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:16:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

1:16:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

1:17:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

1:17:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

1:18:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

1:19:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

1:19:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

1:20:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

1:21:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

1:21:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

1:22:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

1:23:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

1:24:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

1:26:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

1:27:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

1:28:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

1:29:00 Ask Chuck

1:29:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

1:32:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

1:37:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

1:41:00 Recommendations for political books?

1:46:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:00 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

04:30 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

05:15 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

06:15 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

07:15 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

08:00 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

10:15 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

12:00 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

12:30 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

13:00 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

15:30 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

16:00 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

17:45 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

19:45 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

22:00 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

24:30 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

27:30 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

28:15 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

29:15 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

31:30 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

32:45 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

34:45 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

35:15 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

37:30 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

38:15 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

40:30 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

42:45 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

43:30 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

46:45 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

50:00 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

52:30 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

57:45 Where you can find John’s work

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd delivers a masterclass on the single most underappreciated force in presidential politics: the primary calendar, which he argues reveals exactly what kind of nominee a party actually wants long before a single vote is cast. He explains that the Democratic decision to put South Carolina first is by design a test of Black support and viability in the South — and one that's deliberately engineered to hurt progressives, who have consistently gotten thumped in South Carolina primaries. He believes that Democrats have badly underinvested in South Carolina and Mississippi, meaning a little TLC could plausibly turn South Carolina into a genuine swing state. The calendar's practical effect, he argues, is that it sets up well for Wes Moore (if he runs) and is nearly as favorable for Pete Buttigieg, while raising the stakes for Kamala Harris to the point that if she doesn't win South Carolina, she's essentially finished. He is sharp on the flaws of the rest of the early window — Nevada isn't the test Democrats claim because the culinary union shapes everything and Arizona would better measure the Latino vote, Michigan is theoretically ideal but is getting torn apart over Israel in ways that could hurt Democrats in a general, and Virginia (now the last stop before Super Tuesday) reliably serves as a bulwark for moderates because it's a center-left rather than hard-left blue state — and he lays out what the ideal calendar would look like for progressives and for MAGA respectively. He's blunt that Ken Martin's leadership of the DNC has been a major problem, questioning whether Democrats really want him refereeing the nomination fight when the party's money troubles are a reflection on Martin himself. He then turns to Trump backing down on Iran yet again — halting strikes less than 12 hours after issuing fresh threats — calling the entire Iran adventure easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century, especially now that an administration once committed to non-proliferation appears to be helping the Saudis with nuclear technology. He notes Democrats nominated Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner, making the Maine Senate seat winnable again even as Trump has made the races in both Maine and Michigan harder, and closes with a run of telling contrasts: the White House openly bragging that it added tariffs to help big tech, data centers emerging as the top issue for voters in many states, Trump calling LeBron James a racist from the Oval Office while Obama quietly reached out to offer Caitlin Clark advice and comfort — a perfect encapsulation, He argues, of one leader who wants to divide and another trying to turn the temperature down.

Then, sports business reporter John Ourand — who shares an origin story with Chuck Todd at Sports Business Daily — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a deep dive into the money reshaping professional and college sports. Ourand walks through the sale of the Seattle Seahawks as a signal that the era of family-owned NFL franchises is ending, explaining how team valuations have roughly doubled in just three years thanks to new tax advantages and the simple fact that NFL ownership has become the ultimate status club for the ultra-wealthy. He and Chuck dig into whether these eye-popping valuations constitute a bubble — the NFL alone signed $110 billion in media deals over two years — and whether the sports media "middle class" could be facing a real reckoning even as streamers thrive with smaller game packages. Ourand offers a fascinating look at how leagues are navigating their relationship with the networks and production companies that broadcast them (the NFL is deliberately careful not to hurt the legacy networks it depends on), and defends the enduring value of investigative sports journalism, pointing to Pablo Torre's Clippers reporting as a reminder that nobody, including executives at ESPN, wants to be remembered as the person who killed real journalism at the network.

The conversation turns to how sports and politics are increasingly colliding. Ourand contrasts Michael Jordan's studied political neutrality with the modern reality of athletes and leagues getting pulled into culture war fights whether they want to or not, noting the UFC fight at the White House pulled huge ratings and that Trump's involvement in overturning a disputed red card call may have actually boosted viewership. He praises Caitlin Clark for navigating the culture wars more gracefully than almost anyone in sports today, draws a compelling parallel between Clark and Larry Bird, and argues the WNBA under commissioner Kathy Engelbert isn't doing nearly enough to capitalize on the attention Clark has generated — in part because leagues remain skittish about race and sexuality debates they'd rather avoid entirely. Ourand closes with a detailed look at the messy economics of college sports, explaining how the biggest programs are effectively subsidizing smaller ones, why a real collective bargaining structure may eventually be inevitable, and why the sport's true power brokers could soon demand a much larger share of the revenue pie for themselves.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the ratification of the 14th amendment at a time when the idea of birthright citizenship is being called into question, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

02:30 A primary calendar shows the type of nominee a party wants

03:15 The calendar dictates where candidates spend their time

04:15 The first state on the calendar is massively important

05:00 The Democratic nominee will have to survive South Carolina

05:30 Iowa has gone first for decades

07:15 First in the calendar matters more than anything else

07:45 South Carolina is a test for black support & viability in the south

08:30 South Carolina going first is designed to hurt the viability of progressives

09:15 Going first created robust state parties in Iowa & New Hampshire

10:00 Democrats have underinvested in South Carolina & Mississippi

13:15 Strong state organizations create future candidates & elected reps

14:45 With more TLC, Democrats should be able to make SC a swing state

15:45 South Carolina will determine which candidates are viable

17:15 Progressives have gotten thumped in SC primaries

18:15 Calendar is designed to make life harder for progressives

19:45 The calendar doesn’t always produce the intended candidate

22:00 20% in a crowded field could be enough to win or take 2nd

24:00 If Kamala Harris doesn’t win South Carolina she’s basically out

24:45 On paper, this is a huge boost for Wes Moore if he runs

26:00 Whoever is in 1st place this far out is a measurement of name ID

26:30 New Hampshire Dems are upset about not being first

28:30 Nevada is not the test that Democrats claim it is

29:00 The culinary union shapes the entire state’s politics in Nevada

30:00 The DNC wanted states that could produce same-night results

31:30 Nevada isn’t a good test of the latino vote, Arizona would be better

32:45 In theory, Michigan is a good state to test, but it’s getting divided over Israel

33:30 Israel could get so divisive it could hurt Dems in a general election

34:15 Virginia is now the last state of the early window before Super Tuesday

34:45 Virginia tends to serve as a bulwark for the moderate candidates

36:00 Virginia is a blue state, but it’s a center-left state

37:15 More than any candidate, the table is set for Wes Moore

37:45 The calendar is also good for Pete Buttigieg

39:15 What the best primary calendar would look like for progressives

41:00 What the best MAGA primary calendar would look like

44:00 The calendar dictates who candidates must become during campaign

45:45 Super Tuesday was created to balance out the early base voters

47:30 Legislature control also dictated the creation of this Dem primary calendar

49:15 Ken Martin’s leadership at the DNC has been major problem

50:00 Do Dems want Martin serving as the referee for the nomination fight?

50:45 Martin is clearly not in the right headspace to lead the DNC

51:45 The DNC’s money problems are a reflection on Martin, not the party

52:45 Trump bloviated & issued more threats to Iran & he’s backing down again

53:45 Less than 12 hours after making threats, he halted strikes

54:45 Trump is completely out of ideas on Iran

55:45 Iran is easily the dumbest thing a president has done this century

56:30 For years the goal was non-proliferation, now we’re helping the Saudis?

58:15 If we’re helping Saudis with nuke technology, who are we to tell others no?

59:00 Trump’s personal financial gain may have accelerated this

59:30 Dems nominate Troy Jackson to replace Graham Platner

1:00:00 Maine senate is once again a very winnable race for Democrats

1:01:15 Trump has made the races in Michigan and Maine much harder

1:02:15 Trump has no idea what’s going on in American politics, can’t read a room

1:03:00 White House bragged that they added tariffs to help big tech

1:04:15 Data centers are the biggest issue for voters in many states

1:05:45 Trump calls LeBron James a racist at oval office press conference

1:06:45 Obama reached out to give Caitlin Clark advice & words of comfort

1:08:00 Trump showed he wants to divide, Obama tried to turn temperature down

1:09:15 Mrs. Todd’s suggestion for changing the White House Correspondents’ Dinner

1:17:45 John Ourand joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:19:45 Chuck & John’s shared origins at Sports Business Daily

1:22:15 Who are the new owners of the Seattle Seahawks?

1:23:00 We are ending the era of the family owned teams

1:24:00 How did NFL teams double in value in 3 years?

1:25:00 NFL ownership is a club rich people want to be in

1:25:45 There are new tax advantages to owning franchises

1:28:00 Are sports franchise valuations a bubble that could burst?

1:29:45 The NFL signed $110B in deals in 2 years

1:30:15 The middle class of sports rights might face a reckoning soon

1:30:45 The PGA Tour may have cause for concern for media rights

1:33:15 Streamers are doing just fine with limited packages of games

1:33:45 If Amazon gave up their rights, the stock price probably goes up

1:35:30 The NFL conscious of not hurting the business of legacy networks

1:37:30 Will the leagues move broadcast production in-house?

1:39:45 Leagues more likely to partner with large production companies

1:42:15 There’s still a market for investigative sports journalists

1:45:15 Nobody wants to be the executive that kills journalism at ESPN

1:46:00 Reporters at ESPN are aware of where the third rail is

1:47:00 Pablo Torre’s scoop on the Clippers was a journalist’s dream

1:49:15 How are leagues/players interacting with politics?

1:50:30 Michael Jordan stayed out of the political fray

1:52:30 The UFC fight at the White House had huge ratings

1:53:00 Trump’s involvement in overturning red card possibly boosted ratings

1:55:15 Caitlin Clark has been great at avoiding be pulled into the culture wars

1:56:00 Parallels between Larry Bird & Caitlin Clark 

1:58:15 The WNBA isn’t doing enough to capitalize on Clark’s popularity

2:00:30 Leagues are afraid of race & sexuality debates 

2:01:15 Is Kathy Engelbert the right commissioner for the WNBA?

2:04:30 How would collective bargaining be organized in college sports?

2:07:45 The biggest college programs are subsidizing the smaller ones

2:10:15 Could big programs demand a bigger share of the revenue?

2:15:30 Where you can find John’s work

2:17:00 ToddCast Time Machine - July 28th, 1968

2:17:30 This was the day William Seward certified the 14th Amendment

2:18:15 Some states tried to rescind their certification

2:18:45 Congress declared the amendment ratified

2:19:30 “Who gets to be an American?” was a question the founders left open

2:20:15 Birthright citizenship was an open question at the time

2:20:45 Dred Scott was one of the worst SCOTUS decisions of all time

2:21:30 States tried to reassemble the structures of slavery after the war

2:22:00 Abolishing slavery and securing freedom were two different things

2:22:45 Citizenship couldn’t rest on a law, it had to be in the constitution

2:23:30 Trump vs. Barbara ended with SCOTUS upholding birthright citizenship

2:24:30 The case of Won Kim Ark became foundation of this summer’s ruling

2:25:30 Congress addressed Native American citizenship in 1924 via statute

2:27:30 Someone from anywhere could become an American

2:28:15 Every generation has found new ways to fall short of the American promise

2:29:15 Certification of the 14th amendment is what makes America different 

2:30:00 Ask Chuck

2:30:15 Have you seen anything to suggest Trump has a religious faith?

2:33:30 Goal of NDAA integrating more between the U.S. & Israeli militaries?

2:38:30 If a president were convicted and removed via impeachment… What happens next?

2:42:00 Recommendations for political books?

2:47:00 Has the kind of voter fraud cited by Republicans ever changed an outcome?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook (the ACA and Biden's Medicare drug price negotiations both succeeded that way, while Medicare for All keeps stalling because people are fundamentally change-averse), argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

02:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

03:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

05:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

06:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

06:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

07:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

08:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

09:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

11:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

13:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

15:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

16:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

17:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

18:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority 

21:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

22:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

22:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

24:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

25:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

27:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

27:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

29:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

30:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

30:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

31:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

33:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

35:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

37:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

38:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

39:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

40:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

42:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

43:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

45:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

46:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

47:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

49:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

49:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

50:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

51:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

52:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

55:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

56:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

57:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Then, Neera Tanden — president and CEO of the Center for American Progress and a longtime Democratic policy hand — joins the Chuck Toddcast for an unusually candid reckoning with where the party went wrong and what it actually needs to do next. Tanden doesn't soften the verdict: Democrats' one job in 2024 was to keep Trump out of office, and they failed, in part because the establishment let the Biden campaign go on far too long and has consequently lost credibility it hasn't earned back. She argues that in an era where every election is close, Democrats shouldn't be satisfied chasing narrow wins — the actual goal should be a decisive Electoral College victory built around a genuine 60% coalition, especially now that even longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away. Tanden is refreshingly specific on policy: she defends incrementalism as the proven Democratic playbook, argues entrenched Washington interests can block even a clear majority's will, and wants Democrats to build their economic message explicitly around working-class anxieties.They discuss the sharp moral case for the estate tax while cautioning that a wealth tax is nearly impossible to administer fairly year to year and would almost certainly be struck down by this Supreme Court.

The conversation turns to the internal Democratic civil war and the road to 2026 and beyond. Tanden argues there's no rise of the DSA without Trump's return, frames the Michigan Senate primary as the real petri-dish test for the left, and is blunt that Democrats in swing states need to remember they're in swing states. She calls for a real, honest autopsy of 2024, and lays out her vision for a Democratic trifecta in 2027: pass bills that directly address the cost of living, investigate the administration's corruption and recognize that Trump's entire contract with his base rests on the promise that he can never lose. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:14:00 Neera Tanden joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15:00 Developing ideas for the country’s biggest problems

01:16:30 Democrats have real anger with the Trump administration

01:17:30 Democrats job was to keep Trump out of office & they failed

01:19:00 Pelosi thought Biden would lose and chose to act, but too late

01:20:00 The establishment allowed the Biden campaign to go on too long

01:20:30 The establishment has less credibility than in the past

01:21:15 Longtime Trump supporters are starting to break away from him

01:22:30 Every election is close, never enough for repudiation

01:23:15 Goal should be a large scale electoral college victory

01:25:00 The opportunity to build a 60% coalition

01:27:00 The problems America faces seem to big for incrementalism

01:29:45 The success of the ACA came via incrementalism

01:30:30 Medicare drug price negotiation was a huge win for Biden

01:31:30 Problem with Medicare-for-all is people are changing averse

01:32:30 Entrenched interests in Washington can stop a majority

01:35:30 Dems should organize messaging to include more working class people

01:36:00 Why do we have a trillionaire when people are struggling with basics?

01:36:45 Working class people are more sensitive to crime issues

01:38:00 People are worried about the wealthy having too much power

01:39:30 Inheritance tax would help prevent oligarchy

01:41:00 People are pessimistic their kids won’t do better than them

01:41:30 It feels like the social contract has been eroded in America

01:43:00 If you believe in merit, you should believe in the estate tax

01:44:00 A wealth tax is hard to evaluate year to year

01:44:45 Supreme Court unlikely to find wealth tax constitutional

01:45:45 State wealth taxes are not a good idea

01:47:30 Democracy is undermined when there’s an economic nobility

01:49:00 Attitudes toward inequality were different in the 90s, every group doing better

01:51:15 There’s no rise of the DSA without the return of Trump

01:52:00 Michigan primary will be the petri dish test for the left

01:53:45 Democrats in swing states need to remember they’re swing states

01:54:30 Liberals in Texas thought Talarico was more electable

01:56:30 Progressives winning in blue cities isn’t that big of an issue

01:57:15 DSA needs to be cognizant that they would struggle in swing states

01:59:00 Democratic leadership has stayed the same

02:00:15 Democrats needs to do a real autopsy on 24

02:01:00 Harris being on the ticket saved the Democrats 4 senate seats

02:03:00 If Dems win both chambers, how should they spend 2027?

02:03:45 Dems should pass bills that address the cost of living

02:04:15 The administration’s corruption needs to be investigated

02:05:30 SCOTUS basically gave Trump a pass for illegality, Dems can’t do much

02:06:45 Republicans are starting to break, but they tolerate the intolerable

02:09:15 Trump’s contract with his base is that he can’t lose

02:10:30 Which under the radar senate race do you find most fascinating?

02:11:45 Amy Acton in Ohio will be the canary in the coalmine

02:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

02:14:00 #5 Oregon

02:15:00 #4 Ohio

02:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

02:18:15 #2 Kansas

02:19:00 #1 Iowa

02:20:00 Ask Chuck

02:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

02:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

02:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

02:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

02:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With almost 100 days until the midterms, Chuck Todd delivers a data-driven check-in on a midterm race that's barely moved in months — except in one crucial direction: Trump's approval went permanently underwater on Liberation Day and has been steadily eroding ever since. He walks through the map in granular detail: Democrats are heavy favorites for the House, likely picking up 15-20 seats even after redistricting wars ultimately cut in Republicans' favor. On the Senate side, Democrats have had the better year, with the map expanding to make Kansas, Iowa, and Nebraska genuinely gettable in a wave election, and forcing the GOP to spend big just to hold Texas. He notes presidential approval and even more so approval within a president's own party serving as the two biggest predictors of midterm outcomes. He warns that if the war further tanks the global economy, ordinary Americans will feel it directly, making Trump's own behavior the single biggest wildcard of the entire cycle. He then pivots to the newly passed Protect College Sports Act, walking through why nearly every stakeholder except the SEC and Big Ten support it, why it functions like a de facto collective bargaining agreement without an actual union. He closes with a trio of sharp items: the year's measles outbreak has already surpassed all of 2025's cases combined, with Chuck arguing nobody bears more responsibility for undermining the vaccine than RFK Jr.; Zohran Mamdani calling Netanyahu a war criminal while conceding he has no authority to arrest him, a comment that risks complicating the affordability-focused, "get shit done" movement Mamdani has actually been building; and a notable Oregon lawsuit challenging closed primaries on First Amendment grounds, arguing that voting shouldn't require joining a private club and that independents shouldn't be locked out of the process. 

Finally, he presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of governor’s seats most likely to flip in the midterms, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /*Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

06:00 Almost 100 days until the midterm elections

06:30 Not much movement in the midterms in the past few months

07:15 Trump’s approval went underwater permanently on Liberation Day

08:30 Trump’s approval has slowly eroded since that day

09:45 Trump keeps announcing new tariffs & tax increases on Americans

10:45 Democrats are heavy favorites to win the House

11:45 Redistricting wars eventually ended up helping Republicans

12:30 Realistically Dems pick up 15-20 seats

14:15 On the senate side, Dems have bad the better year, expanded map

14:45 GOP has gone from clear favorites to small favorites for senate

16:30 Trump has made things much easier for Dems to win the senate

17:00 ICE killing in Maine turned the page on the Platner debacle

18:00 In multiple states, Dems are in better shape now than six weeks ago

18:30 Kansas, Iowa and Nebraska are gettable for Dems in a wave year

19:30 Republicans will have to spend big to defend Texas

21:15 Average gain for out party in a midterm is 4 seats

21:45 Could Fetterman and Murkowski end up switching caucuses?

22:30 Knocking off incumbents is harder than winning an open seat

24:00 GOP feels like the rise of DSA gave them something to run against

26:15 Republicans feel they have to make the Democrat unacceptable

27:30 A few Republicans will survive because of their opponent

29:15 The base is still with the GOP, women & independents are not

30:15 Persuadable voters don’t like election denialism & the Iran war

31:00 Biggest predictor of a midterm election is presidential job approval

32:45 Another big predictor is approval within a president’s own party

34:00 Clinton & Bush were able to have historic overperformance

35:30 Obama had a mixed bag between 2010 and 2014

36:15 Trump is under 80% approval amongst Republicans

37:00 Republicans still have a fairly high floor despite Trump’s troubles

37:45 The Iran war has the potential to crater Trump’s approval

38:45 Dems now have a better chance to win both chambers

39:15 Trump’s behavior is a massive wildcard for the midterms

40:45 If the war tanks the global economy, Americans will feel it

42:30 Congress set to pass bill to put regulations on college sports

43:15 Almost every interested party is in favor except SEC & Big Ten

44:00 What the Protect College Sports Act does

46:00 The bill locks in a revenue share & shuts down booster collectives

46:30 The bill would require a pay cut for the biggest schools

47:15 The bill looks a lot like a collective bargaining agreement

48:15 No industry has cap on pay without a labor union… except this

49:00 The courts are likely to strike this down

50:30 This legislation is begging for legal challenges

51:30 In any other industry this would be a “company union” which was outlawed

53:00 They could fix transfer portal & eligibility and punt on the compensation

53:30 College athletes are now professionals & should be treated like it

54:30 This bill fixes nothing and just tries to jam the players

55:30 The SEC is throwing a temper tantrum over this bill

57:00 College football’s superpower is its geography, it lives everywhere

58:00 Revenue sharing is why the NFL is such a juggernaut

59:00 We’ve had more measles cases this year than all of 2025

59:30 RFK Jr. bears responsibility for this outbreak

1:00:00 Nobody has undermined the measles vaccine more than RFK

1:00:45 These outbreaks will eventually extract a political price

1:01:30 Don’t be shocked when RFK faces civil litigation

1:02:00 Mamdani gives a speech calling Netanyahu a war criminal

1:02:30 Mamdani concluded he didn’t have authority to arrest Bibi

1:03:00 Mamdani ran on affordability, not Israel & foreign policy

1:03:30 Mamdani wants to create a movement, not just govern NYC

1:04:15 Mamdani’s project a real “get shit done” competence so far

1:05:15 Is Mamdani teeing up an eventual senate run?

1:06:00 Mamdani may have made his political project just a bit harder

1:07:00 Lawsuit in Oregon is challenging closed primaries

1:07:30 Participation in elections shouldn’t require joining a club

1:08:00 1st amendment protects you from having to associate

1:08:30 Independents shouldn’t be locked out of primaries

01:13:30 ToddCast Top 5 Governor’s seats most likely to change parties

01:14:00 #5 Oregon

01:15:00 #4 Ohio

01:16:15 #3 Wisconsin

01:18:15 #2 Kansas

01:19:00 #1 Iowa

01:20:00 Ask Chuck

01:20:15 Love for Chuck’s creaky chair

01:21:30 What is your favorite political term that nobody knows its origin?

01:23:30 How was JFK’s appointment of his brother viewed at the time?

01:26:00 Dems chances of winning statewide in Iowa, Ohio and Florida?

01:27:15 Could Talarico generate any coattail effect for Dems in Texas?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.