Filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected.

The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did, and that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.

 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today 

03:45 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era

04:45 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck

07:00 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story?

09:00 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land

10:15 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello

12:00 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen

13:00 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered

14:15 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath

16:00 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie

17:45 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos

19:00 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist

19:45 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem

21:00 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art?

23:15 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades

24:15 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music

24:45 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music

26:00 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political

26:45 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political

28:30 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts

30:30 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story?

33:00 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music?

34:00 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor

35:30 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today?

36:15 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app

36:30 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America?

37:15 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad

38:15 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon

40:00 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. 

Then, filmmaker and author Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck Toddcast to discuss Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today, his new PBS documentary narrated by Rosanne Cash and featuring music from Bruce Springsteen, which traces the bond Guthrie forged with John Steinbeck during a campaign to ease the suffering of migrants in California — and argues those 1930s conflicts have unmistakable echoes in the present. Mitchell, a Depression-era obsessive who has written extensively about American politics since the 1930s, explains how he began seeing the connections between Guthrie and Steinbeck and why he refused to make a straight biopic: he wanted a film with current ramifications, which is why it closes with Springsteen's "The Ghost of Tom Joad" set against images of immigrants surrounded by federal agents and protesters holding signs quoting Guthrie. He and Chuck get into the story behind "This Land Is Your Land" (which wasn't the song's original title), the mechanics of securing the rights to the music and the story, his conversation with Tom Morello about the Springsteen song, and how seeing the migrant work camps firsthand fundamentally transformed Guthrie as an artist. Mitchell notes that Steinbeck was denounced as a communist for his trouble, that the majority of California's agricultural workforce eventually became Mexican and Filipino, and that Tom Joad was always meant to be a political character — which is exactly why he keeps getting resurrected.

The conversation broadens into a genuinely fun argument about protest music and whether great art requires great despair. Mitchell traces the lineage from Guthrie to Dylan (whom Guthrie mentored) to Springsteen, and notes that Guthrie has had a moment of renewed relevance over the past year as his music finds new audiences at No Kings and anti-ICE protests. He and Chuck walk through the iterations of protest music across the decades — The Clash and Blondie as deeply political acts, Springsteen's own evolution from apolitical rock star to a man now delivering angry speeches from the concert stage, and Jesse Welles finding real modern success in the form. They debate whether a fictional account can land harder than a true story, whether The Grapes of Wrath would even be a bestseller if published today, and what Tom Joad would make of contemporary America — with Mitchell arguing that the collapse of organized labor would genuinely shock both Joad and Guthrie. The episode closes on a pointed political note: Mitchell contends that Trump's corruption so far exceeds anything Nixon did that Nixon himself would be considered a lefty by modern standards. The film is streaming now on PBS.org and the PBS app.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale

06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida

07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms

09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout

09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon

10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee

11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters

11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general

12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed

13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries

15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully

15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries

16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest

18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community

20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance

21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds

22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems

23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district

24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary

25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries

27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend

27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans

28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops

31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states

32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball

32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling

34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018

36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18

37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama

37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 

39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive

42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races

43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation

44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida

45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas

47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas

48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?

56:30 Greg Mitchell joins the Chuck ToddCast

58:00 Making an appearance in Woody Guthrie and the Ghost of Tom Joad Today

1:00:15 Chose the subject because he’s obsessed with the Depression era

1:01:15 Started seeing connections between Woody Guthrie and John Steinbeck

1:03:30 Was it difficult to get the rights for the music/story?

1:05:30 Creating protest songs like This Land Is Your Land

1:06:45 Discussing the Ghost of Tom Joad with Tom Morello

1:08:30 Tom Joad was an inspiration for Springsteen

1:09:30 Woody has always remained relevant. Songs have been covered

1:10:45 Tom Joad was meant to be political in Grapes of Wrath

1:12:30 Seeing migrant work camps deeply affected Woody Guthrie

1:14:15 Majority of agricultural workers became Mexicans & Philipinos

1:15:30 Steinbeck was denounced as a communist

1:16:15 “This land is your land” could be the national anthem

1:17:30 Do we need times of great despair to produce great art?

1:19:45 There have been iterations of protest music over the decades

1:20:45 Jesse Wells has found modern success with protest music

1:21:15 Bruce Springsteen & Tom Morello have produced new protest music

1:22:30 Groups like The Clash and Blondie were very political

1:23:15 Springsteen started as apolitical, then evolved to become political

1:25:00 Springsteen now gives angry speeches during his concerts

1:27:00 Can a fictional account land harder than a true story?

1:29:30 Is Guthrie to Dylan to Springsteen the lineage of protest music?

1:30:30 Guthrie was Bob Dylan’s mentor

1:32:00 Would Grapes of Wrath be a best seller if it came out today?

1:32:45 Film is available at PBS and the PBS app

1:33:00 What would Tom Joad feel if he was in modern America?

1:33:45 The fall of unions would shock Guthrie and Joad

1:34:45 Trump’s corruption so far exceeds anything done by Nixon

1:36:30 Nixon would be considered a “lefty” by modern standards

1:37:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special

1:38:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years

1:39:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”

1:40:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men

1:41:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money

1:42:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment

1:43:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872

1:43:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years

1:44:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge

1:45:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify

1:46:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify

1:46:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse

1:47:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46

1:48:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage

1:50:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment

1:50:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself

1:51:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one

1:52:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement

1:54:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths

1:55:30 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win

1:56:00 #1 AOC

1:58:15 #2 Pete Buttigieg

1:58:30 #3 Kamala Harris

1:58:45 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom

2:00:30 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment

2:02:30 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems

2:08:00 Ask Chuck

2:09:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?

2:16:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?

2:20:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?

2:25:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??

2:31:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd closes the book on primary season with Florida — and leads with the stunning upset that ended it. State Rep. Angie Nixon, a Jacksonville former union organizer and Democratic Socialists of America member, beat Alex Vindman with 56% of the vote despite being outraised roughly 16-to-1, and will now face appointed Republican Sen. Ashley Moody in November for the final two years of Marco Rubio's old seat. Chuck’s read is that this wasn't a movement election so much as a performance gap: Vindman ran like the presumptive nominee, hoarded his money for a general election he never reached, and got flatly outworked with primary voters. He's curious what Vindman does with that war chest, and notes Vindman's whole profile felt like first-term Trump resistance in a cycle that's moved on. Elsewhere in Florida: Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in a majority-Black district, Cory Mills lost his primary, Republican turnout meaningfully outpaced Democratic turnout in Florida, and Chuck thinks it's improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds in the governor's race. But the bigger story is national, and it's about turnout as a tea leaf. More Trump-endorsed candidates went down, part of a trend Chuck argues shows Trump's relevance melting away as his approval drops — and that he's actively making things harder for his own party. Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots nationally, up from 54% in 2018, with the biggest jump in Alabama and double-digit increases across multiple states. Chuck is careful with the caveat: primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball — it tells you where your floor is, not your ceiling. Texas Democratic turnout rose even with marquee Republican races on the ballot, Kansas Republican turnout cratered (though Democrats still have work to do there), and Florida Democrats hemorrhaged voters to no-party affiliation — meaning you can see something real happening in Texas that simply isn't happening in Florida. His bottom line: Democrats will win more votes in November, and history says they win the midterms. The open question is whether they can take both chambers. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the 72 year struggle of the women’s suffrage movement before achieving the ratification of the 19th amendment, presents his ToddCast Top 5 list of Democratic Presidential hopefuls who will work the hardest to win the nomination and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Don’t miss the Toddcast Special Report on the Lakers sale

06:30 Primary season is basically wrapped up after Florida

07:45 Raw primary turnout is a good tealeaf to read ahead of midterms

09:00 Democratic voters have been more enthusiastic w/ higher turnout

09:30 Alex Vindman loses Florida senate primary to Angie Nixon

10:30 Vindman ran his race like he was the presumptive nominee

11:00 Nixon just outworked Vindman with primary voters

11:30 Vindman hoarded his money for the general

12:30 This wasn’t a movement election, Nixon just performed

13:15 The importance of the African-American vote in Dem primaries

15:15 Need to live in Florida for more than a couple years to run successfully

15:45 Most of the carpetbagger candidates lost their primaries

16:30 Will be interesting to see what Vindman does with his war chest

18:00 Voters care if you are of/from their community

20:00 Vindman felt like first-term Trump resistance

21:00 It’s improbable but not impossible for David Jolly to beat Byron Donalds

22:15 Florida Republican turnout was much higher than Dems

23:45 Debbie Wasserman Schultz won in majority black district

24:45 Cory Mills loses his primary

25:30 More Trump endorsed candidates lost their primaries

27:15 Trump backed candidates losing has become a trend

27:45 Trump is going out of his way to make it harder for Republicans

28:30 Trump’s relevance is melting away as his approval drops

31:45 Democratic electorate is expanding in most competitive states

32:15 Primary turnout is a thermometer, not a crystal ball

32:45 Turnout tells you where your floor is, not the ceiling

34:30 Democrats outperformed their primary edge in the general in 2018

36:00 Democrats cast 57% of primary ballots, compared to 54% in ‘18

37:00 Biggest jump in Dem turnout was in Alabama

37:45 Multiple states with Democrat turnout up double digits 

39:45 Alabama’s governor race may be very competitive

42:30 Texas Dem turnout was higher even with marquee GOP races

43:45 Florida Dems lost voters to a no party affiliation

44:30 You can see something happening in Texas, not in Florida

45:30 Republican turnout was way down in Kansas

47:15 Dems probably still have more work to do in Kansas

48:00 Dems will win more votes in November,
48:45 History says Dems win the midterms, but can they win both chambers?

52:15 ToddCast Time Machine moved due to Lakers deep dive special

53:45 The movement for women’s suffrage took 72 years

54:15 Movement started in Seneca Falls, NY with the “Declaration of Sentiments”

55:15 100 people sign that declaration. 68 women and 32 men

56:15 Women could work for wages & have no control over the money

57:00 The movement fractured over disagreement about the 15th amendment

58:00 Susan B. Anthony votes illegally and is arrested in 1872

58:30 Women’s suffrage amendment keeps being introduced and failing for 40 years

59:15 The people who started the movement die, and new leaders emerge

1:00:30 In 1919 congress passes the 19th Amendment, need 36 states to ratify

1:01:00 Tennessee becomes the final state needed to ratify

1:01:30 Vote keeps ending up tied in the Tennessee statehouse

1:02:30 Ratification passes the house 50-46

1:03:45 Women couldn’t immediately vote everywhere after passage

1:05:00 Charlotte Woodward was only signatory that lived to see 19th amendment

1:05:45 Woodward lived long enough to see it, but was too old/sick to vote herself

1:06:45 A political movement often requires one generation to build it for the next one

1:07:45 After Trump, America will need a hard fought reform movement

1:09:30 America eventually gets it right, after exhausting other paths

1:10:45 ToddCast Top 5 candidates working the hardest to win

1:11:15 #1 AOC

1:13:30 #2 Pete Buttigieg

1:13:45 #3 Kamala Harris

1:14:00 #4 Mark Kelly + #5 Gavin Newsom

1:15:45 Jon Ossoff didn’t need to make his Natalie comment

1:17:45 Andy Beshear + Rahm Emmanuel don’t scare red state Dems

1:23:00 Ask Chuck

1:24:00 Can Dems actually bring accountability to Trump if they take congress?

1:31:30 Why were outsider Dem candidates so competitive in MI and WI?

1:35:15 Why can Trump do whatever he wants unchecked?

1:40:45 How should newsrooms cover the Natalie Harp story??

1:46:00 How do we hold politicians to account for upholding the constitution despite religion?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande explore the origins of the Crimson Tide and the remarkable rise of Bear Bryant. From Alabama’s early Rose Bowl triumphs and the beginnings of the Crimson Tide name to Bryant’s near-departure for the Miami Dolphins, they trace the moments that helped turn Alabama into the standard of college football.

They also examine one of the most complicated chapters in the program’s history: integration, Bear Bryant’s role in a changing South, and Alabama’s landmark 1970 matchup with USC.

It’s the story of how football became inseparable from Alabama—and how the foundation was laid for one of the greatest dynasties in sports history.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

With under 80 days to the midterms, Chuck Todd and Chris Cillizza pause the horse race for a full "where are we now" audit of the 2028 Democratic field — prompted, Chris admits, by listener pushback that they'd been too dismissive of Gavin Newsom. Using the Kalshi and Polymarket odds as a starting point rather than gospel, they work through a top tier of AOC, Newsom, and Jon Ossoff. Chuck's central thesis is that AOC could become a magnetic force on the scale of Trump in 2016 or Obama in 2008 — a candidacy the entire field gets measured against, potentially freezing out half the governors and senators eyeing a run. He maps how she could be the frontrunner while playing underdog in South Carolina, and why the new calendar's crowded first state may actually cushion her. On Newsom, Chuck is blunt: the prediction markets are artificially inflating him, the attention economy is doing the work, and a California governor with a mixed record has no obvious state to win. They also make the case that Kamala Harris ultimately doesn't run — and that not running is the smarter play for 2032.

The back half turns to the field's second tier and its long shots: whether Mark Kelly has the hunger and the issue to go with the biography (Chuck's dream ticket: Kelly and Warnock, order randomized), why John Glenn and Bill Bradley are the cautionary tales for résumé candidates, whether Ossoff can realistically jump straight from an $87 million Senate race into a billion-dollar presidential campaign, and a genuine dark-horse case for Rahm Emanuel built on the party's underinvestment in rural Black voters. They preview Tuesday's Florida primary — Byron Donalds's real ceiling, why Chuck thinks the general could land inside five points, the Mel Martinez precedent, and Corey Mills, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and Alex Vindman. Then the tone shifts hard: an angry, unsparing exchange about the expired US-Iran memorandum, the Strait of Hormuz, conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, and Pete Hegseth's fitness for the job.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Under 80 days out — and a full 2028 Democratic audit

01:06 Why Chuck thinks JD Vance will divide the right 

02:08 The prediction markets as one data point, not the whole story

02:55 Reading Polymarket and Kalshi: AOC, Newsom, Ossoff at the top

05:12 Could AOC suck up all the oxygen the way Trump did in '16?

06:15 The egg-freezing story as proof of her magnetic pull

06:42 Skeptical Newsom can play in Michigan, Iowa, South Carolina

07:30 The impossible position for Newsom

08:16 AOC's advantage — no long record to defend

09:38 Could egg-freezing access become an issue she champions?

10:01 How her presence could paralyze half the field before it starts

10:57 Where does that leave Pritzker? Or Ossoff?

11:59 The formalized DNC calendar

13:37 Nevada, Michigan and the Culinary Union question

14:42 Why a crowded South Carolina helps the progressive lane

15:13 What 2020 looked like when South Carolina came fourth

15:49 Newsom's real problem: where does he actually win?

16:59 Harris's East Coast headquarters lesson

17:22 Advice: put your HQ in Michigan, not San Francisco

19:42 The counterargument: no gatekeepers left, and the hustler wins

20:10 Ossoff, Buttigieg & who's actually willing to burn the boats

21:08 Newsom one-on-one vs. Newsom in a big room

22:08 Would a swing-state Democrat invite Newsom to campaign? 

23:04 Harris analysis: you don't buy in Malibu if you're running

24:06 The Dan Quayle risk if she runs under these circumstances

25:01 Newsom and Harris can't both run 

26:20 Mark Kelly in Iowa & the quote that reads like a stump speech

27:15 Chuck's lab-built ticket: an astronaut and a pastor

27:50 Will the Democratic base accept Kelly?

29:30 Is Kelly too pro-business for this version of the party?

30:45 How Trump's attacks on Kelly may have helped him

31:33 The real gap: Kelly has no signature issue

32:03 AOC is the change candidate — inside the party and outside it

33:09 Biographies don't win the presidency

33:30 The cautionary tales: John Glenn and Bill Bradley

35:08 The charisma gap — and Kelly's habit of yelling to show energy

35:55 Scanning the long shots on the board

36:55 If not AOC, then Ro Khanna

37:16 Pritzker at 1% — the governor who could reach the left

37:46 Chuck's real dark horse: Rahm Emanuel

39:32 Democrats' rural problem isn't just rural whites

39:59 The left will never accept him

42:07 Not a cycle for an insider — but maybe for an ideas guy

42:27 The Wisconsin lesson: Crowley won against something

42:50 To Florida: Tuesday's primary and Tuesday night's live stream

43:35 Jolly-Donalds could land inside five points

44:01 Why Florida isn't as noncompetitive as people assume

44:44 Could DeSantis win a third term? 

45:24 What's Donalds's real number? 

46:16 The Mel Martinez precedent

48:29 Why Chuck thinks Jerry Demings had the better shot at Donalds

49:56 The 2018 what-if: Bernie, Soros, Gillum and DeSantis

50:43 Credit to DeSantis for saying what Trump never does

51:48 Debbie Wasserman Schultz in a majority-Black district

52:38 The Vindman question — and the residency problem

54:23 The US-Iran memorandum expires with no deal

55:46 A $1.5 trillion budget and a carrier crew that can't get fed

56:11 Testosterone tests and push-up contests while the Lincoln goes short

56:33 Operationally a disaster — and where's the audit?

57:57 Damaging the last institution still standing

59:51 The Nats get swept by the Mets 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.

On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote

03:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone

05:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters

06:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?

06:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house

07:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials

08:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run

09:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?

12:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane

13:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”

14:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms

14:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?

16:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power

18:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans

19:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him

20:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?

21:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?

23:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate

24:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line

25:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was

26:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”

27:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model

28:00 The far left is stronger than the far right

31:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives

32:00 Impact of South Carolina going first

33:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field

34:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28

35:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes

36:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate

37:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position

37:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church

38:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win

40:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries

41:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?

42:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors

43:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six

44:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?

47:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s

48:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers

49:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race

50:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unloads on newly confirmed Attorney General Todd Blanche for appearing at a political rally alongside Trump — a line past attorneys general knew better than to cross — and for openly stating that the Justice Department won't be independent of the White House. Chuck argues Republicans are making the DOJ far more nakedly partisan than any prior administration, that the senators who voted to confirm Blanche should be ashamed of themselves, and that Blanche is essentially telling the country in advance that the institution won't hold. He turns to the horror stories surfacing about morale and conditions aboard the USS Abraham Lincoln, where Trump's response was that the deployment hasn't gone on nearly long enough — proof, Chuck argues, that neither Trump nor Hegseth is even pretending to care about the people they've deployed, and that America was taken into a war it was never prepared to fight. After years of record military budgets producing bad results, Chuck’s question is simple and furious: what the hell have we been paying for? He identifies a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon, then pivots to what he sees as the coming Republican civil war over JD Vance, who now says he wants to end the dollar's status as the world's reserve currency and who views America's alliances as liabilities rather than strengths — positions Vance will have to actually sell on the merits, because he doesn't have Trump's charisma to carry them, and positions that could drive a meaningful number of Republicans out of a Vance-led party altogether. Chuck closes with a genuinely provocative question about the missing anti-war movement: where are the protests over Iran? He wonders aloud whether the Gaza demonstrations were ever really an anti-war movement at all, whether they were as organically American-driven as they appeared, and argues the silence around Iran is revealing in ways nobody on either side seems eager to examine — before previewing Tuesday's Florida primaries. 

Politico politics bureau chief and senior political columnist Jonathan Martin joins the Chuck Toddcast for a reporter's-eye tour of the 2028 landscape, starting from an observation both men keep circling: the governing wing of each party is badly out of step with its own voters. Martin walks through the Democratic field with real granularity. Pete Buttigieg carries genuine Biden baggage and is fundamentally a creature of institutions — he isn't going to burn the house down, which is precisely why the left will never trust his establishment credentials, and why Martin wonders aloud whether his future might be more as an advisor than a candidate. On AOC, Martin's read is that the entire question is simply whether she runs: if she does, she's the lead car in the progressive lane and could clear it outright, and she'd be formidable in a crowded field. He notes it's no accident she reemerged right after El-Sayed's Michigan win, that she's been careful and disciplined about picking her spots during the primaries, and that she more than held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church — which matters enormously given the Democratic calendar was explicitly designed to stymie progressives by putting South Carolina first. Martin isn't at all convinced Jon Ossoff runs, even though Ossoff checks every box on the list of things Democrats have historically wanted, and he thinks Abdul El-Sayed could be a genuinely formidable presidential candidate. The overarching question, as Martin frames it, is whether Democrats vote with their head or their heart in 2028 — a decision the November midterms will shape more than anything else.

On the Republican side, they point out Vance simply wasn't a good candidate when he ran for Senate and needed both Trump and Peter Thiel to drag him over the finish line, that Rubio's presidential campaigns always ran into whoever's "turn" it was, and that the fastest way to lose in this environment is to be seen as one of the donor candidates. Vance's real challenge, Martin argues, is the Tucker Carlson model — and the open question of who carries that banner in 2028. He and Chuck agree the far left is currently stronger than the far right within their respective parties, and that insurgencies are a natural feature of the party out of power. Nothing, Martin says flatly, gets better for Republicans between now and the midterms; the Iranians want to humiliate Trump and Jimmy Carter him, and they're timing their moves to the American political calendar. They agree Democrats are either picking up two Senate seats or six with very little in between, and predict Greg Abbott will have to spend real money to win in Texas. Plus: why in-person interviews still beat remote ones, the disappearance of the old guard of Tennessee Republican politics, how Buttigieg's sexuality might factor into a national campaign, why online small-dollar money means Democrats no longer need to court only big donors — and whether UVA can actually contend in football this year.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

 

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck /  *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Shout out to ReCenter Indiana

07:30 Todd Blanche appeared at political rally with Trump, now as AG

08:00 Past Attorneys General knew better than to act so partisan

08:30 Blanche says DOJ won’t be independent of the White House

09:15 Republicans are making DOJ far more partisan than prior admins

10:15 Senators who confirmed Blanche should be ashamed of themselves

11:15 Blanche is telling us that the institution of the DOJ won’t hold

12:00 Horror stories surface about morale & conditions on USS Abraham Lincoln

12:30 Trump says deployment hasn’t gone on nearly long enough

13:00 Trump and Hegseth didn’t even pretend to care about these soldiers

13:45 Clearly we were taken into a war that we weren’t prepared for

14:15 We keep passing record military budgets & getting bad results

15:00 What the hell have we been paying for?   

15:30 We have a clear leadership problem at the Pentagon

16:45 The coming civil war inside the Republican party over JD Vance

17:15 Vance says he wants to end the dollar as the reserve currency

17:45 Vance views alliances as liabilities rather than strengths

18:15 Vance doesn’t have Trump’s charisma, will have to sell his argument

18:45 Many Republicans might leave a Vance Republican party

19:30 Where are the protests and the anti-war movement over Iran?

20:30 Was Gaza actually an anti-war movement? 

21:00 Were Gaza protests not as American driven as we thought?

22:15 The lack of protest over Iran is revealing

23:15 Preview of Florida primary elections on Tuesday

28:00 Jonathan Martin joins The Chuck ToddCast

29:30 Why in-person interviews are so much better than remote

31:30 The old guard of GOP politics in Tennessee are gone

33:30 The governing wing of each party aren’t agreeing with the voters

34:15 How does Pete Buttigieg navigate carrying “Biden baggage”?

34:45 Pete is a creature of the institutions, he won’t burn down the house

35:30 The left won’t ever trust Pete’s establishment credentials

36:30 How Pete’s sexuality could affect a presidential run

37:30 Is his future more in an advisor role than an elected official?

40:00 If AOC runs in 2028, she’ll be the lead car in the progressive lane

41:30 The question surrounding AOC is “will she or won’t she run”

42:00 The presidential campaign will be shaped by November midterms

42:30 Do the Dems go with their head or their heart in 28?

44:45 Insurgencies happen in this environment for party out of power

46:15 Nothing gets better between now and the midterms for Republicans

47:45 The Iranians want to humiliate Trump and “Jimmy Carter” him

48:45 Besides Vance, Rubio and Youngkin, who else might run for the GOP?

49:30 Who carries the Tucker Carlson banner in ‘28?

51:45 Vance was not a good candidate when he ran for senate

52:30 Vance needed Trump & Peter Thiel to get him over the finish line

53:30 Rubio’s campaigns were challenging the person whose turn it was

54:45 You don’t want to be seen as one of the “donor candidates”

55:30 Vance’s biggest challenge will be of the Tucker model

56:00 The far left is stronger than the far right

59:00 Democrats primary calendar designed to stymie progressives

1:00:00 Impact of South Carolina going first

1:01:30 AOC would clear progressive lane & be formidable in crowded field

1:02:30 Not at all convinced that Jon Ossoff runs in ‘28

1:03:00 Democrats have a type, and Ossoff checks all those boxes

1:04:15 Abdul El-Sayed could be formidable as a presidential candidate

1:05:00 AOC could emerge from South Carolina in a strong position

1:05:30 AOC held her own speaking at Ebenezer Baptist church

1:06:15 Not an accident AOC reemerged after El-Sayed’s win

1:08:15 AOC has been smart and careful to pick her spots during primaries

1:09:30 What will keep prominent Dems from running?

1:10:00 There’s lots of Dem donor money online, don’t need only big $ donors

1:11:30 Dems are either picking up two senate seats… or six

1:12:30 How cemented is the red/blue map?

1:15:00 Kansas could be ‘06 Indiana but Dem hasn’t won senate seat since 30s

1:16:15 Voters don’t like the public school funding cuts for vouchers

1:17:30 Greg Abbott will have to spend big to win his race

1:18:00 Will UVA be a contender in football?

1:25:00 No time machine this week

1:25:45 Ask Chuck

1:26:00 Why doesn’t congress vote on more clean standalone bills?

1:29:15 List of biggest presidential blunders

1:32:30 Dems chances of shifting red states in the midwest?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

In Part 2 of this ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd picks up the thread where Part 1 left it: if an insurance company's capital cushion is determined by how risky its investments are judged to be, then who is doing the judging? The answer leads to private letter ratings — a corner of finance almost no one outside it has heard of, and one that has exploded in size. Wall Street Journal reporting by Shane Shiflett and Heather Gillers assembled data on nearly 18,000 privately rated instruments held by U.S. insurers, and the growth curve is the number to remember: roughly $47 billion in 2018 to roughly $480 billion seven years later, with one estimate putting total private credit in insurance portfolios near $1 trillion. Much of that grading runs through firms most people have never heard of, and Chuck focuses on Egan-Jones, which privately graded roughly $40 billion of debt held by U.S. insurers, faces a 2024 lawsuit from two former executives alleging they were fired after raising conflict-of-interest concerns and that the firm pressured staff to inflate ratings, has drawn SEC questions about its reliability, and in January was removed by Bermuda regulators from their list of recognized ratings providers — all of which Egan-Jones forcefully denies, saying it stands behind the integrity and independence of its work. Chuck is careful throughout about what this does and does not establish: agencies can legitimately disagree, private raters often see borrower information outsiders never will, and none of it means any particular rating is wrong. It means the ratings deserve scrutiny, because if the grade helps set the size of the rainy day fund, being wrong about the grade means being wrong about the cushion.

From there the episode widens out. Chuck walks through what a clean audit opinion actually certifies versus what people assume it certifies, revisits Executive Life — the insurer that reached for yield in junk bonds in the 1980s and was eventually seized — as a more instructive warning than Enron or 2008, and is direct that this is not a story about an insurer on the brink: Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully and that its financial position remains sound, Delaware Life reported roughly $69 billion in assets as of March and Clear Spring roughly $16 billion, and no charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals. AM Best has affirmed both companies' A- (Excellent) financial strength ratings while revising their outlooks to negative following the reclassification of private credit investments from unaffiliated to affiliated. Complicated private assets are not insolvency; related-party exposure is not insolvency; a federal investigation is not insolvency. The question Chuck is actually chasing is structural — whether a system split across fifty state insurance departments, the SEC, the Fed, offshore reinsurance regulators, and private ratings firms can assemble the whole machine fast enough when one piece breaks, and whether the real lesson of the post-2008 era is that we made the banks safer without ever asking where the behavior would go. He lays out three ways this ends, six specific questions he'd chase with subpoena power he doesn't have, and — unusually — the exact evidence that would bring him back in six months to say the warning lights looked worse than the engine. Because capitalism doesn't run on money alone. It runs on people believing that a price means what it says, that a rating means something, and that somebody understands the risk underneath a promise made to a retiree thirty years out. 

Timeline:

00:00 Recapping Part 1: inside Mark Walter's world of structured finance
00:30 Who looked inside the box and decided how safe it was?
01:00 Why the risk grade determines the size of an insurer's cushion
01:30 Credit rating agencies as the report card for debt
02:00 A better grade can mean less capital sitting behind it
02:15 The special purpose vehicle, the note, and the rating
02:45 Does the grade on the box accurately reflect what's inside?
03:15 WSJ data on nearly 18,000 privately rated investments
03:30 From $47 billion in 2018 to $480 billion seven years later
03:45 One estimate puts private credit near $1 trillion in insurance portfolios
04:15 What "privately rated" actually means
04:30 Private letter ratings and what the public can't see
05:00 Why the quality and independence of the rating matters so much
05:15 Egan-Jones — and the Arthur Andersen flashback
05:45 The ratings agencies you know, and the one you don't
06:00 Roughly $40 billion of insurer-held debt privately rated by Egan-Jones
06:15 Egan-Jones also rated the Dodgers TV network debt
06:30 Following the chain from annuity customer to capital cushion
06:45 Who pays the ratings agencies? The inherent tension
07:15 The Journal's comparison: roughly one grade higher on average
07:45 Egan-Jones strongly disputes the Journal's analysis
08:00 Former executives' lawsuit alleging pressure to inflate ratings
08:15 Egan-Jones denies it; the SEC has examined its processes
08:30 Bermuda removed Egan-Jones as a recognized ratings provider
08:45 Allianz's response: requiring a second rating
09:15 This doesn't mean the ratings are wrong — it means scrutiny
09:30 Enter the auditor: KPMG and the clean opinions
10:00 What an audit opinion addresses — and what it doesn't
10:30 The right question to ask about a clean opinion
11:00 Executive Life: the more useful historical warning
11:30 Junk bonds, Michael Milken, and the reach for yield
12:00 How Executive Life ended — and why it isn't the same thing
12:15 The evidence that cuts against the scariest version of this story
12:30 Delaware Life's reported assets, capital, and surplus
12:45 Financial strength ratings and what "A-" actually means
13:00 The more recent caution from the ratings agencies
13:30 This is not an insurer on the verge of seizure
13:45 The real question: confidence in conventional measures of strength
14:00 Why asset quality matters when you're backing promises
14:30 The safety net: state guaranty associations
14:45 And who ultimately pays for that safety net
15:00 Accumulating echoes: Executive Life, Enron, and 2008
15:45 The warning lights of 2026
16:15 Not a crisis — but a reason to ask better questions
16:30 Can regulators adapt as fast as the system is changing?
17:00 What regulators are actually doing right now
17:30 This is not asleep-at-the-switch
17:45 The structural problem: nobody sees the whole machine
18:15 Fifty states, fifty insurance departments
18:45 Why we regulate different financial businesses differently
19:00 Assembling the machine when each regulator holds one piece
19:45 Finance moves at the speed of a term sheet
20:15 Regulation moves at the speed of rulemaking
20:45 Understanding regulatory arbitrage
21:00 Same television, different rules
21:45 Most regulatory arbitrage is perfectly legal
22:00 But risk doesn't change just because the address does
22:15 Why regulators are reconsidering what qualifies as a bond
22:30 Show me what's inside the box, not the wrapping paper
23:00 The rules are being rewritten — but the money is already there
23:30 The mistake Washington may have made after 2008
24:00 You can't pass a law eliminating the desire to make money
24:45 The campaign finance parallel
25:00 We regulated the scene of the accident
25:30 We get very good at preventing the last financial crisis
26:00 Incentives work: if banks pull back, somebody else lends
26:15 Maybe the behavior simply migrated
27:15 The systemic stress test Chuck doesn't think we can pass
27:45 Why the investigation is useful regardless of the outcome
28:00 Looking through the legal boxes to the economics underneath
28:30 Where the central argument lands
29:15 What happens when something goes wrong? The honest answer
29:30 The strongest case that nothing catastrophic happens
30:00 Why private credit isn't structured like a bank run
30:15 Longer-term liabilities and patient money
30:45 Three ways this story could end
31:00 Possibility one: Walter is the problem
31:15 Possibility two: an extreme example of a manageable problem
31:45 Possibility three: Walter is the X-ray
32:00 What we do — and don't — have evidence of
32:30 Being careful not to invent the next 2008
32:45 Where pressure could actually come from
33:15 When patient money becomes less patient
33:30 Other sources of insurance funding under stress
33:45 Borrowing, credit lines, and reinsurance triggers
34:00 Who else made a promise based on that valuation?
34:15 Being fair to Delaware Life and Clear Spring
34:45 The narrower question: how much stress can the cushions absorb?
35:15 Back to the Lakers one last time
35:45 Why you sell the thing you can sell
36:00 What Chuck is and isn't ready to say
36:30 If I had subpoena power: the reporting roadmap
37:00 What open-source reporting can and can't do
37:30 One: open the boxes and show the underlying assets
37:45 Two: did the structure change the regulatory treatment?
38:15 Schedule D vs. Schedule BA — show us the math
38:30 Three: who graded the box, and on what information?
38:45 Four: why did 3% become something vastly larger?
39:00 Who made that judgment, and what changed after the subpoenas?
39:30 Five: did the Lakers money actually matter?
39:45 Six: how much stress can these insurers absorb?
40:15 What we know, and what we don't
40:30 The final test: what would make Chuck say he was too worried
40:45 Show me the marks hold up
41:15 "I'd love to make that podcast"
41:30 What this story already tells us
41:45 Coming back to Josh Kushner and the timing
42:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo
42:15 Why the political question is the smaller question
42:45 The more consequential story
43:00 The full thread: Lakers to Walter to Dodgers to private credit
43:30 What we have and haven't established
43:45 We reinforced the part of the house that burned down
44:15 Every private equity firm wanted its own insurance company
44:30 "Money always finds a way"
45:00 The failure was assuming we'd solved the behavior
45:15 Why this matters well beyond Wall Street
45:30 Our hypothetical retiree, and what she has to trust
45:45 Capitalism runs on trust, not just money
46:15 If that trust breaks, everyone finds a different villain
46:45 Where Chuck's instincts are — and what the evidence doesn't establish
47:00 What would change his mind
47:15 Why it's fitting we got here through the Lakers
47:45 Let's figure out what it is before the patient gets sick

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

What started as a simple sports question: why did Mark Walter sell the Los Angeles Lakers after just 14 months? — turned into something else entirely. In Part 1 of this two-part ToddCast Special Report, Chuck Todd pulls the thread from a record $12.5 billion franchise sale to the life insurance companies, private credit vehicles, and obscure Delaware LLCs sitting underneath one of the least understood transformations in American finance since 2008. The facts on the record: Walter's Delaware Life Insurance Co. and Clear Spring Life and Annuity Co. received grand jury subpoenas from Manhattan prosecutors in February, disclosed in June 26 regulatory filings, with a parallel SEC review, following earlier inquiries into Guggenheim's $362 billion money management arm. After receiving the subpoenas, both insurers conducted internal reviews, found reporting errors, and revised earlier disclosures — with Delaware Life disclosing an additional $16 billion in private credit assets linked to affiliated entities beyond what had previously been reported. Chuck is emphatic about what that does not mean: no money disappeared, no loans were declared bad, and a disclosure change is not a financial loss. No charges have been announced against the companies or any individuals, Group 1001 says it is cooperating fully with federal authorities and that its financial position remains strong, and the filings did not state that assets were improperly managed or that investors suffered losses.

From there, Chuck builds the machine from the ground up in plain English — a retiree in Indiana buying an annuity, an insurer that has to earn enough to keep that promise, a post-2008 world where banks got safer and the risky lending simply moved somewhere with no public market attached to it. He traces Walter's career from asset-backed securitization in the 1990s through the 2012 Dodgers purchase (and the question Andrew Ross Sorkin asked at the time about where the money came from), through the corporate genealogy of Guggenheim, Delaware Life, Clear Spring, and Group 1001, to insurance filings showing hundreds of millions in debt tied to the Dodgers' regional sports network and ticket revenue. He credits the reporting he's leaning on throughout — Katie Baker at The Ringer, independent researcher Nick Nemeth at Mispriced Assets, plus Bloomberg, the Wall Street Journal, and the Financial Times — and he is scrupulous about the line between what the public record establishes and what it simply cannot. The core question isn't whether anyone broke the law; investigators with subpoena power will answer that. It's whether we understand this system well enough to know what happens when it comes under stress — because when the assets underneath an institution's balance sheet can't be continuously tested in a public market, how much confidence should any of us have in the numbers? Part 2 continues the story. 

Timeline:

00:00 Why did Mark Walter sell the Lakers? Pulling the thread

00:30 This stopped being a basketball story

00:45 A record $12.5B sale — and why the seller is the story, not the buyers

01:15 Walter took control just 14 months earlier at a $10B valuation

01:30 The thread led to life insurance companies

02:00 A financial market that's grown enormously since the last crisis

02:30 Things that rhyme with 2008 — and things that rhyme with Enron

02:45 Executive Life: the insurer that failed three decades ago

03:15 Three different historical examples — not the same thing

03:45 Not saying another 2008 is coming

04:00 "A sneaking suspicion we may be looking at the beginning of something very bad"

04:15 The questions public filings simply cannot answer

05:15 Why some answers only exist in depositions

05:30 Why the federal investigation matters — subpoena power

06:00 The rule for this episode: what we know vs. what we don't

06:30 The central question about measuring financial strength

07:15 Why this should be a five-alarm fire for regulators

07:45 An enormous market built around things that are private by definition

08:15 Credit where it's due: The Ringer, Mispriced Assets, WSJ, Bloomberg, FT

09:15 Connecting dots vs. building a case

10:00 We made banks safer after 2008 — the money went somewhere else

11:00 Even if it's all legal, the larger question remains

11:45 A simple rule: when someone tells you "it's complicated"

12:15 Complexity as a feature, not a bug

13:00 The innocent explanation: a $2.5B gain in 14 months

13:30 Iger and Kushner were already exploring an NBA expansion team

13:45 Why buy the Lakers instead of building from scratch

14:45 What "valued at $10 billion" does and doesn't mean

15:30 We don't know how much cash Walter personally receives

15:45 Why sell at all? Walter collects teams, he doesn't flip them

16:30 Why only the Lakers? He's keeping the Dodgers

17:15 February grand jury subpoenas and the parallel SEC review

17:30 The disclosure change inside the insurers' filings

18:15 A disclosure change is not a financial loss

19:30 Nobody's been charged; companies say they're cooperating

20:00 Reporting on liquidity — and the precision that question requires

21:00 Why the timing is a legitimate reporting question

21:15 Keeping two separate sports stories separate

21:45 The FIFA deal collapsed roughly 10 days before the Lakers deal

22:15 What the timing does and does not establish

23:00 The political question: Josh Kushner, Jared Kushner, the executive branch

23:45 The pattern is context — it is not evidence

24:00 No evidence of a quid pro quo

24:45 Why the question stays on the shelf

25:15 What does "billionaire" actually mean?

26:00 Who is Mark Walter? Cedar Rapids, a concrete plant, and anonymity

27:15 "I'm nothing special. I'm just the king of common sense."

27:45 Why the low profile matters to this story

28:30 Liberty Hampshire and asset-backed securitization

29:30 Meeting the Guggenheims and building Guggenheim Partners

30:45 Wealth vs. commanding capital that isn't yours

31:45 2012: buying the Dodgers, and the Frank McCourt cautionary tale

33:00 Baseball wanted the exact opposite of McCourt

33:45 Andrew Ross Sorkin's question: where's the rest of the money?

34:15 Insurance company capital in the Dodgers financing

35:15 How does retirement money end up near a baseball team?

36:30 Following the money: a hypothetical retiree in Indiana

37:15 The annuity bargain and what insurers do with the money

38:15 How 2008 scrambled the insurance business

39:00 Low rates and the hunt for yield

39:45 Chuck's Widget Company and the loan the bank won't make

41:00 Money always finds a way — the lesson from campaign finance

41:45 What private credit actually is

42:15 The genuine advantages of private credit

43:00 Stickier capital — and why runs still happen

43:45 Private credit isn't inherently bad. What happens when it gets big?

44:15 No public market means no continuous price check

45:15 What replaces the market as the check on valuation?

46:00 Two sides looking for each other

47:00 Multiplying one retiree's $100,000 by hundreds of thousands

47:45 What happens when the same person owns both sides?

48:30 This is an entire industry, not one man's invention

49:15 Guggenheim's move into insurance and the roots of Group 1001

50:30 The ecosystem: asset management, insurance, private credit

51:00 Why the corporate structure is so hard to follow

51:30 Sportsnet LA and American Media Productions

52:00 Roughly $587M of that debt held by the two insurers, per filings

52:30 Dodgers Tickets LLC and slicing up a franchise

53:00 Is the Dodgers one entity or many?

53:30 Asset-backed securitization, applied to a baseball team

54:30 Is lending against Dodgers TV revenue inherently bad?

55:00 The brother analogy: conflicts and other people's money

55:30 February: subpoenas to Delaware Life and Clear Spring

56:15 The assets were always on the books — the question is characterization

56:30 General interrogatory 13.2 and the original 3% answer

57:00 The revised figure: roughly $16.4B described as dependent on affiliates

57:30 Three separate questions the public record can't resolve

58:15 What the internal reviews concluded

58:45 Comparing that figure to Delaware Life's reported capital and surplus

59:15 What the number does NOT mean

59:45 Concentration, governance, and disclosure

1:00:30 The questions that actually matter

1:01:00 Why the opacity itself is part of the story

1:01:15 Someone looked at the individual borrowers, one by one

1:02:00 Nick Nemeth and the Mispriced Assets research

1:03:15 Why independent research matters in the new media world

1:03:45 Roughly 230 holdings with striking similarities

1:04:00 The names: Verdant Hills, Pines, Iroquois, Yellow Creek

1:04:30 Special purpose vehicles — what's inside the box?

1:05:00 The legitimate reasons to use an LLC

1:05:30 How structure can change regulatory treatment

1:06:15 Does the legal wrapper describe the economic risk underneath?

1:06:45 Does that explain 230 vehicles? We don't know.

1:07:15 The echo of the mortgage crisis

1:08:00 Formation dates, filing numbers, and same-day funding

1:08:45 Roughly 44% of positions held by both insurers, purchased the same day

1:09:15 Innocent explanations exist — but this looks like a system

1:09:30 The questions only investigators can answer

1:10:00 Identification numbers and why outsiders can't check a price

1:10:45 A sophisticated process may exist — but it isn't a public market

1:11:15 What's a private note worth this morning?

1:11:30 Carried at or near purchase price: the concern raised

1:12:00 The great irony: the Lakers are the easy thing to value

1:12:30 Who owns these investments — and who was promised what

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

 

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Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:00 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

01:15 What is the plan?

01:45 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

02:30 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

03:00 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

03:45 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

05:45 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

06:15 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

07:15 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

09:30 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

12:30 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

13:30 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

15:00 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

19:30 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

20:00 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

22:30 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

23:15 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

24:15 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

25:30 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

26:15 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

26:45 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

28:00 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

28:45 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

29:45 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

30:45 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

32:00 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

34:45 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

35:30 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

36:15 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

38:15 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

39:45 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

40:15 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

41:00 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

41:30 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

42:00 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

44:30 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

46:00 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

47:30 How big should the Democratic tent be? 

48:30 The coalition looks different in different states

50:00 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

50:45 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

51:15 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

53:00 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

55:45 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

56:45 You build a local brand through your actions over time

57:30 When did you first think about running for office?

59:30 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

1:01:00 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

1:02:15 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks David Crowley's astonishing photo-finish win over Francesca Hong in Wisconsin — a race Crowley dropped out of, re-entered with Tony Evers' backing, and then won by roughly 3,200 votes — and argues national Democrats are far more relieved than they'll ever admit. Had Hong won, she'd have become a face of the party while being forced to spend the fall answering for past statements about defunding police, abolishing prisons, and canceling Thanksgiving rather than talking about the economy, handing Republicans an absurdly easy story to tell. Chuck credits Tony Evers for refusing to fence-sit and mounting what amounted to an emergency rescue operation, while noting Crowley isn't remotely "establishment" — he came from genuinely modest roots and ran a campaign largely defined by what he wasn't. Chuck identifies Hong's central unforced error as nationalizing her race in the closing weeks, a fundraising-driven instinct in an era where media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appeals, forgetting that the national online audience and the local electorate are not the same people. Mamdani stayed disciplined and won; Hong drifted into boutique cultural debates and lost. But Chuck cautions against reading this as a repudiation of the left: Peggy Flanagan won in Minnesota, progressives are doing better this cycle than they have in years, and the 2027 House will be younger and slightly further left. The real structural lesson is that progressives struggle in higher-turnout and open primaries, still face a persistent obstacle with African American primary voters, and — most tellingly — keep getting rejected by the working-class voters they orient their entire message toward, which is more than a messaging glitch. Abdul El-Sayed emerges a quiet winner here, now much harder to lump in with the DSA, and Chuck notes that neither AOC nor Bernie ever endorsed Hong.

The rest of the monologue is a run of results that keep pointing the same direction. Trump-endorsed candidates keep losing primaries: Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota, Darline Graham didn't clear a third of the vote and is no lock in her runoff, and Chuck's read is that Trump's grip is measurably slipping. Fourteen-term Congressman John Larson lost his primary, part of the highest incumbent-loss rate since 1970 — in a genuine wave, Chuck says, the House could see north of 25% turnover. On Iran, he echoes Chris Christie's warning that this war turns Trump into Jimmy Carter: Iran has issued a list of demands that amounts to an "F you" ransom note, is openly watching the American election calendar and timing its moves accordingly, and — just as in 1980 — the humiliation itself is the point. All of it, Chuck notes, was Trump's own choice. He closes somewhere unexpected: giving Mark Zuckerberg genuine credit. In his 6,500-word manifesto, Zuckerberg argued that the real danger of AI is the concentration of power, writing that hoping an absolute power will benevolently provide for humanity has historically never ended well — and committing Meta to a review process before models go public. Chuck notes the argument is being made by a deeply self-interested party and that the important parts got buried in what was really a debate with Sam Altman, but he singles out one thing worth emulating: Meta funneling data center tax revenue back into teacher bonuses and job training. Communities hosting this infrastructure have to win too, and he hopes more tech CEOs adopt that philosophy.

Then, Ben Wikler, the former Wisconsin Democratic Party chair and author of the new book This Is the Plan joins the Chuck Toddcast to argue that Democrats keep making the same category error: they keep winning change elections and then failing to deliver change, because they're trying to fix policy without first fixing the system that determines who gets to make policy. Wikler's framing is memorable and a little cheeky — you have to win the ring of power and then cast it into Mount Doom — but his point is serious. When the right wins power, it immediately restructures the system to entrench itself; Democrats win and then govern as though the rules are fixed. His plan runs through the state level, where free and fair elections are actually secured, and demands ending the filibuster and reforming the Supreme Court, including term limits for justices, because campaign finance reform is impossible without a Court willing to allow it. Wikler argues America is in the greatest period of political instability in its history, that inequality now exceeds the Gilded Age, that gerrymandering has left millions of people without a meaningful vote, and that both party bases increasingly want to fight more than they want to win — while swing and non-voters have simply given up on the system itself. He rejects the tired rebuilders-versus-renovators binary: FDR's Social Security pitch was a huge swing, incrementalism was the only path to Obamacare, and the actual art of politics is starting from values and vision and then figuring out what can pass.

The conversation gets specific about Wisconsin and about trust. Wikler pushes back on the idea that Francesca Hong is too "Madison" for a statewide race, notes she's spent years traveling and listening across the state, and calls Tom Tiffany an election denier who is genuinely beatable in a cycle where affordability is the central issue. He and Chuck work through the puzzle of why Tony Evers' calm, steady approach succeeded where Biden's didn't — Evers came out forcefully against Dobbs, and, more fundamentally, you have to convince a majority of voters that government can actually work, which means doing what you said you'd do and then relentlessly telling people you did it. Wikler points to pandemic relief as the cautionary tale: those programs dramatically improved life for lower-income voters, the child tax credit cut child poverty in half, and then it all expired and Democrats got punished for the loss rather than credited for the gain — with an extension that had bipartisan support dying anyway, because the filibuster exists largely to deprive the other side of a win. He credits Ken Martin for investing in state parties, argues Democrats don't need a 50-state strategy so much as fifty different state strategies since the coalition looks different everywhere, and concedes that Trump has been the most successful Republican of this era, spawning an army of mini-mes modeling themselves on him. And yes, Chuck asks the obvious question — why not run for Senate yourself? 

Finally, Chuck reveals his ToddCast Top 5 list of biggest non-presidential primary upsets, which David Crowley’s win taking the top spot. He also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment and weighs in on the highly suspicious sale of the Los Angeles Lakers to Jared Kushner’s brother.

 

Thanks to our sponsors:

Upgrade your everyday. Go to https://Quince.com/CHUCK for free shipping on your order and 365-day returns. 

Play ball and swing for the fences on FanDuel, an official partner of the MLB at https://FANDUEL.COM. 

For free and unbiased Medicare help, dial (980) 734-3985 to speak with my trusted partner, Chapter, or go to askchapter.org/chuck / *Paid Partnership

Chapter and its affiliates are not connected with or endorsed by any government entity or the federal Medicare program. Chapter Advisory, LLC represents Medicare Advantage HMO, PPO, and PFFS organizations and stand alone prescription drug plans that have a Medicare contract. Enrollment depends on the plan’s contract renewal. While we have a database of every Medicare plan nationwide and can help you to search among all plans, we have contracts with many but not all plans. As a result, we do not offer every plan available in your area. Currently we represent 50 organizations which offer 18,160 products nationwide. We search and recommend all plans, even those we don’t directly offer. You can contact a licensed Chapter agent to find out the number of products available in your specific area. Please contact Medicare.gov, 1-800-Medicare, or your local State Health Insurance Program (SHIP) to get information on all of your options. 

 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Unpacking David Crowley’s win over Francesca Hong in WI

04:45 Crowley got out, then back in to the race… yet still won

05:45 If Hong had won, she would have become a face of the Dem party

06:15 Hong had past statements that would have been problematic

07:15 She would have been forced to talk about Thanksgiving, not economics

08:15 Her win would have been an easy story for Republicans to tell

08:45 Abdul El-Sayed is a winner here, harder to be lumped in with DSA

10:00 National Democrats are more relieved than they will admit

11:00 Independents don’t want either party to let extremes take over

12:00 Democrats can make the distinction between themselves & socialism

13:30 The progressives didn’t blow it, Peggy Flannagan won in Minnesota

15:00 African-American primary voters remain an obstacle for progressives

16:30 Progressives gear toward working class voters, yet are rejected by them

17:30 Not winning working class voters is more than a messaging glitch

18:30 Structure of the primary has major impact on success of progressives

19:15 Progressives run into trouble in higher turnout primaries

20:30 Open primaries result in less extremist nominees

21:15 Hong’s big unforced error was campaigning nationally in final weeks

22:00 Nationalizing your race is about fundraising

22:45 Media appearances increasingly function as fundraising appearances

23:30 National online audience & local electorate aren’t the same people

24:15 Mamdani had a disciplined message & succeeded, Hong didn’t

25:00 Ideological candidates can win when the electorate agrees with them

26:00 Ideological movements forget they can sound weird to the normies

26:30 The establishment was dangerously close to screwing this up

28:15 The establishment side of the race was a chaotic mess

29:15 Tony Evers had to mount an emergency rescue operation for Crowley

30:30 David Crowley isn’t very “establishment”, came from modest roots

31:30 Tony Evers deserves credit for putting his capital behind Crowley

32:30 Notable AOC, Sanders and top progressives didn’t endorse Hong

33:45 Getting into boutique cultural debates ends up being a problem

34:30 In Michigan & Wisconsin, the campaigns that physically showed up won

36:15 If Crowley wins & El-Sayed loses, there will be a clear lesson for Dems

38:15 Tony Evers didn’t fence sit, he picked a side and it worked

40:00 Flannagan’s win dispels idea of total repudiation of progressives

42:00 Flannagan had establishment credentials while being progressive

42:30 Progressives aren’t running the table, but are doing better this cycle

43:15 The Democratic house in ‘27 will be younger & slightly further left

44:30 Crowley’s campaign was largely about what he wasn’t

46:00 There could be multiple demographic “first” Democratic governors

47:45 Could these new primary winners end up on a presidential ticket?

49:45 Progressives are doing better, but haven’t won control of the Dem party

50:45 Democrats can blunt the narrative that the socialists are taking over

51:15 Trump endorsed candidates keep losing their primaries

51:45 Mike Lindell was trounced in Minnesota primary

52:45 Trump endorsed Darline Graham didn’t get 1/3rd of the vote

53:15 Graham isn’t a shoo-in in the runoff

55:30 Trump’s endorsement isn’t a guaranteed win, his grip is slipping

57:00 14-term congressman John Larson loses his primary

57:45 Most incumbents have lost reelection this year since 1970

58:15 In a wave election, could see over 25% turnover of the House

59:30 Chris Christie says Iran war will turn Trump into Jimmy Carter

1:00:00 Iran is humiliating Trump, and it was all Trump’s choice

1:00:30 Iran issues list of demands, basically an “F You” ransom note

1:01:30 Iran are watching the American election calendar & acting accordingly

1:02:15 In 1980, the humiliation of Carter was the point, Iran sent a message

1:03:30 Mark Zuckerberg deserves credit for something he said

1:04:15 Zuckerberg argued that AI driven concentration of power is the danger

1:04:45 He says there’s no benevolent superintelligence held by one company

1:05:15 Committed to a review board to sign off on models before going public

1:05:45 At least the argument is being made… even if by a self-interested party

1:06:30 Revenue from Meta data centers has been paid to teachers & job training 

1:07:15 Meta reinvesting in communities with data centers is the right model

1:08:00 The manifesto was a debate with Sam Altman, buried the important things

1:09:15 Hope more tech CEO’s share his philosophy. Communities have to win too

1:16:45 Ben Wikler joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:17:45 Ben’s new book is “This Is The Plan”

1:18:00 What is the plan?

1:18:30 To get political change we need, we need to change the system

1:19:15 To secure free & fair elections, need to win at the state level

1:19:45 We need an end to the filibuster and Supreme Court reform

1:20:30 There’s no one office or candidate to get us out of this mess

1:22:30 We need to win the ring of power, then cast it into Mount Doom

1:23:00 When the right wins power, they immediately change systems

1:24:00 We keep having change elections, then not getting change

1:26:15 We’re in the greatest period of political instability in American history

1:29:15 Both party bases want to fight more than want to win

1:30:15 We’re so gerrymandered, people don’t really get a vote

1:31:45 Swing/Non voters have given up on the system itself

1:36:15 Are rebuilders or renovators going to win the argument?

1:36:45 FDR’s social security pitch was a big swing

1:39:15 Incrimentalism was the only way to pass Obamacare

1:40:00 The art of politics is values/vision, then figure out what can actually pass

1:41:00 A party should be able to change laws, then face the voters

1:42:15 Need to reform the Supreme Court to reform campaign finance laws

1:43:00 Advocate for term limits for Supreme Court justices in the book

1:43:30 Inequality is now worse than it was during the Gilded Age

1:44:45 Is Francesca Hong too “Madison” of a candidate for Wisconsin gov?

1:45:30 Hong has been traveling the state & listening for years

1:46:30 Wisconsin Dem gov primary has been topsy turvy

1:47:30 Tom Tiffany is an election denier & beatable candidate

1:48:45 Affordability is the central issue this election cycle

1:51:30 Why did “calming the waters” work for Tony Evers, but not Joe Biden?

1:52:15 Evers came out very strongly against Dobbs

1:53:00 You have to convince a majority of the public that government works

1:55:00 Trust is earned by doing what you say you’ll do, then highlighting it

1:56:30 Pandemic relief had a massive positive effect on lower income voters

1:57:00 Those programs stopped, and voters punished Dems for it

1:57:45 Child tax credit cut child poverty in half, great accomplishment for Dems

1:58:15 There was bipartisan support for extended tax credit, still didn’t get done

1:58:45 Filibuster is used to deprive the other side from getting a win

2:01:15 Politicians can lay out a succession plan, but voters get their say

2:02:45 Politicians are limited in setting out a succession plan

2:04:15 How big should the Democratic tent be?

2:05:15 The coalition looks different in different states

2:06:45 Donald Trump has been the most successful GOP politician of this era

2:07:30 Every Republican politician looks to Trump as the model

2:08:00 Trump has created an army of “mini-mes”

2:09:45 What Ken Martin is doing right: Building state parties

2:12:30 Democrats don’t need a 50 state strategy, they need 50 state strategies

2:13:30 You build a local brand through your actions over time

2:14:15 When did you first think about running for office?

2:16:15 Support Tammy Baldwin’s bill to provide live Packers games

2:17:45 Most excited about Jordan Love in the upcoming season

2:19:00 Why wouldn’t you run for the senate?

2:20:30 ToddCast Top 5 biggest non-presidential primary upsets

2:22:30 #5 Joe Crowley loses to AOC

2:23:30 #4 Carol Moseley Braun

2:24:15 #3 Andrew Gillum

2:25:15 #2 Eric Cantor

2:26:15 #1 David Crawley

2:27:45 Honorable mentions

2:29:15 Ask Chuck

2:29:30 If Talarico wins close, could partisan officials mess with the outcome?

2:32:30 What makes a vice presidency successful & who makes your top 5?

2:40:15 What does it say about us that voters knew who Trump was and reelected him?

2:44:15 Can Jewish leaders like Pritzker & Ossoff campaign effectively for El-Sayed?

2:46:45 Lakers sold again, for $12B to Josh Kushner and Bob Iger

2:47:45 Mark Walter bought Lakers 14 months ago for $10B, and is already out

2:48:30 This story could be nothing… but the details warrant suspicion

2:50:00 Mark Walter’s businesses are under federal investigation right now

2:51:00 Nobody has been charged or accused of anything yet

2:51:45 Why did Walter sell so fast is not a rhetorical question anymore

2:52:30 Kushner was set to buy a piece of the World Cup, until boycott threats

2:53:30 Anyone close to Trump will be assumed guilty until proven innocent

2:55:00 Maybe everything is on the up and up… but the details are shocking

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.