Conservative writer Kevin Williamson — National Correspondent for The Dispatch and one of the sharpest voices on the right — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging and characteristically blunt conversation about Trump's Iran disaster, the collapse of the political parties, and what kind of country America is becoming. Williamson argues Trump made a colossal mistake getting into the Iran war and there's now no way out without national humiliation: the goals of the conflict have constantly been changing, and Trump effectively told the Iranians where his political weaknesses were and they called his bluff. He notes the absurdity of America blockading the Strait specifically because we're mad that it's been blockaded, observes that the firing hasn't actually ceased despite the supposed ceasefire, and offers a withering verdict on the president himself: "Trump is just not a smart guy, he's an insult artist," surrounded by people who don't have the nation's interests in mind. They explore whether China could end up being the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran, whether a nuclear Iran could benefit Putin (would he actually sell them one?), and notes the Gulf states are tired of this. He warns that securing the Strait of Hormuz requires ground troops Trump is too afraid to commit, that the Iranian regime is nothing like Venezuela's and won't fold, and that Trump never prepared the country for pain at the pump.

The conversation broadens into Williamson's structural diagnosis of American politics, and his unsentimental view of where this is all headed. He argues that politics has become like religion, especially for the most religious, which is why Trump's coalition won't fracture even when farmers are being destroyed by Trump's own policies and still vote for him. He says Trump's declining popularity isn't restraining his decision-making at all, that Republicans are already assuming a midterm wipeout, and that Trump will be impeached if Democrats take the House — and should be — though he acknowledges it may not be the smartest political move. They dig into whether both American parties are at genuine risk of collapse, arguing their decline has been a huge loss for the country: celebrity and social media have filled the vacuum, with communication ability now mattering more than actual governing competence. He half-jokes that Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to be, dismisses the idea that Stephen Colbert could carry a progressive banner, and closes with a genuinely dark prediction: America is losing its identity, may simply be too rich for its own good, and is heading for a low so bad that most Americans aren't prepared for it.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Kevin Williamson (The Dispatch) joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:15 Trump made a colossal mistake with Iran war

01:45 We can’t get out of Iran war without being humiliated

03:00 The goals of the war have constantly been changing

04:30 Iran can’t win a battle with the U.S. but its45 sphere of influence is bigger

06:00 Trump told the Iranians what his weaknesses are, they called his bluff

07:00 The firing has not ceased, there’s no actual ceasefire

07:30 We’re blockading a Strait because we’re mad it’s blockaded…

08:30 Trump is just not a smart guy, he’s an insult artist

09:15 The people around Trump don’t have the nation's interests in mind

10:00 Rubio looks good because the people around Trump are so bad

12:00 Will China be the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran?

13:00 Iran having a nuke could benefit Putin, would he sell them one?

14:30 Trump didn’t prepare the country for pain at the pump

15:45 We could really use our European allies that we spurned

16:30 Unclear if Iran would accept a JCPOA style deal now

19:30 50 years after the revolution, Iranian regime hasn’t changed priorities

21:00 The gulf states have influence over Trump and they’re tired of this

23:15 Gulf states probably assumed Trump would go for regime change

24:30 The Iranian regime is nothing like the regime in Venezuela

26:00 The rural vs urban divide leads to failed democratic states 

27:45 Trump’s declining popularity isn’t restraining his decision making

28:45 Republicans are already assuming a wipeout in the midterms

29:15 Trump will be impeached with a Dem majority in the house, and should be

30:00 Impeaching Trump may not be best option politically, but the right thing to do

32:30 Securing the Strait requires ground troops, which is terrible politics

33:15 Trump is a coward, and afraid of the risk of using ground troops

35:00 Trump doesn’t want to get into an open ended occupation of Iran

35:30 Unlikely that Trump’s coalition fractures, it’s a personality cult

36:45 Farmers are being destroyed by Trump, yet many still support him

38:00 Politics has become like religion, especially to the most religious

39:15 Kevin quit the GOP over Arlen Spector, which now seems quaint 

41:00 What kind of conservative do you consider yourself to be?

45:30 Are both American parties at risk of collapse? Could another party emerge?

46:15 The parties matter less now than before Trump was elected

47:00 The decline of the parties has been a huge loss

48:00 Celebrity & social media has filled the gap left by the parties

49:15 Stephen Colbert is unlikely to be the celebrity to carry the progressive banner

50:30 Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to

51:30 Communication is the winning trait of politicians now, not ability

54:30 We’re losing our American identity, maybe too rich for our own good

56:00 We’re going to hit a low that’s so bad, Americans aren’t prepared for it

57:45 The next election is not going to solve our problems

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war: the Saudis have now denied the U.S. military access to strikes from their bases and airspace, the U.S. cannot claim any net positive from this conflict, and Trump's best realistic outcome is some version of the Obama nuclear deal 2.0. He notes that both sides are being squeezed — Iran can't keep this going forever either — but warns that beyond the immediate political damage to Trump, the war has handed China tremendous long-term leverage, AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn't already tanked, and asymmetric warfare has once again proven it can beat superpower militaries. He argues Trump's request for $1 billion in taxpayer funds for a White House ballroom is political suicide — if Obama had made the same ask, the media firestorm would have been deafening — and that Congress approving the money would be handing Democrats an enormous political gift. He flags the FBI's new investigation into Virginia Democrat Louise Lucas, warns that nothing coming from Trump's DOJ can be trusted at face value, and argues the trumped-up charges against James Comey create reasonable doubt about every other case the administration brings. He warns the administration is actively poking the bear with African American voters in ways that could supercharge Black turnout and reshape the midterm calculus, flags the FBI investigation related to The Atlantic's story on Kash Patel's drinking (the bureau denies investigating the reporter, but the careful language suggests a leak investigation exists. He closes with a beautiful and personal commencement-style address to the graduating class of 2026 as his daughter prepares to walk.

Then, conservative writer Kevin Williamson — National Correspondent for The Dispatch and one of the sharpest voices on the right — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging and characteristically blunt conversation about Trump's Iran disaster, the collapse of the political parties, and what kind of country America is becoming. Williamson argues Trump made a colossal mistake getting into the Iran war and there's now no way out without national humiliation: the goals of the conflict have constantly been changing, and Trump effectively told the Iranians where his political weaknesses were and they called his bluff. He notes the absurdity of America blockading the Strait specifically because we're mad that it's been blockaded, observes that the firing hasn't actually ceased despite the supposed ceasefire, and offers a withering verdict on the president himself: "Trump is just not a smart guy, he's an insult artist," surrounded by people who don't have the nation's interests in mind. They explore whether China could end up being the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran, whether a nuclear Iran could benefit Putin (would he actually sell them one?), and notes the Gulf states are tired of this. He warns that securing the Strait of Hormuz requires ground troops Trump is too afraid to commit, that the Iranian regime is nothing like Venezuela's and won't fold, and that Trump never prepared the country for pain at the pump.

The conversation broadens into Williamson's structural diagnosis of American politics, and his unsentimental view of where this is all headed. He argues that politics has become like religion, especially for the most religious, which is why Trump's coalition won't fracture even when farmers are being destroyed by Trump's own policies and still vote for him. He says Trump's declining popularity isn't restraining his decision-making at all, that Republicans are already assuming a midterm wipeout, and that Trump will be impeached if Democrats take the House — and should be — though he acknowledges it may not be the smartest political move. They dig into whether both American parties are at genuine risk of collapse, arguing their decline has been a huge loss for the country: celebrity and social media have filled the vacuum, with communication ability now mattering more than actual governing competence. He half-jokes that Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to be, dismisses the idea that Stephen Colbert could carry a progressive banner, and closes with a genuinely dark prediction: America is losing its identity, may simply be too rich for its own good, and is heading for a low so bad that most Americans aren't prepared for it.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Saudis have denied U.S. military access to bases & airspace

06:00 Trump is only going to get the nuclear deal 2.0 at best

07:30 Iran can’t keep this going as well, both sides being squeezed

08:30 U.S. can’t claim any net positive from this war

09:30 This is bad for Trump politically, but it’s bad for the US long-term

10:15 Trump has handed China tremendous leverage

11:00 AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn’t tanked

12:30 Asymmetric warfare beats superpower militaries

14:15 Greenlighting $1B in taxpayer funds for ballroom is political suicide

15:15 If Obama made the same ask, there would be a media firestorm

16:00 Congress giving Dems a huge political gift by approving funds

17:15 FBI launches investigation into Virginia dem Louise Lucas

18:30 You can’t trust the narratives from Trump’s DOJ

20:00 Trumped up charges against Comey create doubt in other cases

20:45 Administration is poking the bear with African Americans voters

22:00 Supercharged black turnout would change midterm election calculus

23:00 FBI investigation into Atlantic story about Kash Patel’s drinking

23:45 FBI denies investigating the reporter who broke the story

24:30 Denial language suggests a leak investigation exists

26:00 Worried about the future and for this graduating class

28:30 Chuck’s advice for the graduating class of 2026

29:15 Graduates are heading into a very uncertain future

29:45 Adulthood is not a race, don’t always need to hurry

31:00 The first job you take isn’t your forever job

32:00 Don’t confuse a setback with failure

32:45 Respect your elders and respect experience

35:00 Don’t be embarrassed by your struggles or disregard someone else’s

36:00 Life happens. Don’t wait for the perfect time for something

37:15 Road trips are the best way to learn about America

38:15 Don’t be a “Yeah, but” person

40:00 Life is not a competition with your friends’ lives

40:45 It takes a lot of hard work to get lucky

42:00 Sorry that we’ve brought grads into a very angry America

42:30 Talk to people who disagree with you

43:30 If you only experience America through an algorithm, you’ll misunderstand it

47:45 Kevin Williamson (The Dispatch) joins The Chuck ToddCast

49:00 Trump made a colossal mistake with Iran war

49:30 We can’t get out of Iran war without being humiliated

50:45 The goals of the war have constantly been changing

52:15 Iran can’t win a battle with the U.S. but its sphere of influence is bigger

53:45 Trump told the Iranians what his weaknesses are, they called his bluff

54:45 The firing has not ceased, there’s no actual ceasefire

55:15 We’re blockading a Strait because we’re mad it’s blockaded…

56:15 Trump is just not a smart guy, he’s an insult artist

57:00 The people around Trump don’t have the nation's interests in mind

57:45 Rubio looks good because the people around Trump are so bad

59:45 Will China be the country Trump needs to bail him out in Iran?

1:00:45 Iran having a nuke could benefit Putin, would he sell them one?

1:02:15 Trump didn’t prepare the country for pain at the pump

1:03:30 We could really use our European allies that we spurned

1:04:15 Unclear if Iran would accept a JCPOA style deal now

1:07:15 50 years after the revolution, Iranian regime hasn’t changed priorities

1:08:45 The gulf states have influence over Trump and they’re tired of this

1:11:00 Gulf states probably assumed Trump would go for regime change

1:12:15 The Iranian regime is nothing like the regime in Venezuela

1:13:45 The rural vs urban divide leads to failed democratic states

1:15:30 Trump’s declining popularity isn’t restraining his decision making

1:16:30 Republicans are already assuming a wipeout in the midterms

1:17:00 Trump will be impeached with a Dem majority in the house, and should be

1:17:45 Impeaching Trump may not be best option politically, but the right thing to do

1:20:15 Securing the Strait requires ground troops, which is terrible politics

1:21:00 Trump is a coward, and afraid of the risk of using ground troops

1:22:45 Trump doesn’t want to get into an open ended occupation of Iran

1:23:15 Unlikely that Trump’s coalition fractures, it’s a personality cult

1:24:30 Farmers are being destroyed by Trump, yet many still support him

1:25:45 Politics has become like religion, especially to the most religious

1:27:00 Kevin quit the GOP over Arlen Spector, which now seems quaint

1:28:45 What kind of conservative do you consider yourself to be?

1:33:15 Are both American parties at risk of collapse? Could another party emerge?

1:34:00 The parties matter less now than before Trump was elected

1:34:45 The decline of the parties has been a huge loss

1:35:45 Celebrity & social media has filled the gap left by the parties

1:37:00 Stephen Colbert is unlikely to be the celebrity to carry the progressive banner

1:38:15 Taylor Swift could be president if she wanted to

1:39:15 Communication is the winning trait of politicians now, not ability

1:42:15 We’re losing our American identity, maybe too rich for our own good

1:43:45 We’re going to hit a low that’s so bad, Americans aren’t prepared for it

1:45:30 The next election is not going to solve our problems 

1:47:15 Ask Chuck

1:47:30 How would you approach teaching, more depth or more breadth?

1:52:00 Should we pay members of congress more?

1:55:45 What can make local law enforcement a more enticing job?

2:01:15 How does Trump’s drift towards lame-duck status play out?

2:05:45 Why do you think redistricting would create an electoral backlash? 

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the latest from the Iran war: the Saudis have now denied the U.S. military access to strikes from their bases and airspace, the U.S. cannot claim any net positive from this conflict, and Trump's best realistic outcome is some version of the Obama nuclear deal 2.0. He notes that both sides are being squeezed — Iran can't keep this going forever either — but warns that beyond the immediate political damage to Trump, the war has handed China tremendous long-term leverage, AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn't already tanked, and asymmetric warfare has once again proven it can beat superpower militaries. He argues Trump's request for $1 billion in taxpayer funds for a White House ballroom is political suicide — if Obama had made the same ask, the media firestorm would have been deafening — and that Congress approving the money would be handing Democrats an enormous political gift. He flags the FBI's new investigation into Virginia Democrat Louise Lucas, warns that nothing coming from Trump's DOJ can be trusted at face value, and argues the trumped-up charges against James Comey create reasonable doubt about every other case the administration brings. He warns the administration is actively poking the bear with African American voters in ways that could supercharge Black turnout and reshape the midterm calculus, flags the FBI investigation related to The Atlantic's story on Kash Patel's drinking (the bureau denies investigating the reporter, but the careful language suggests a leak investigation exists. He closes with a beautiful and personal commencement-style address to the graduating class of 2026 as his daughter prepares to walk.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment. 

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Saudis have denied U.S. military access to bases & airspace

06:00 Trump is only going to get the nuclear deal 2.0 at best

07:30 Iran can’t keep this going as well, both sides being squeezed

08:30 U.S. can’t claim any net positive from this war

09:30 This is bad for Trump politically, but it’s bad for the US long-term

10:15 Trump has handed China tremendous leverage

11:00 AI spending is the only reason the U.S. economy hasn’t tanked

12:30 Asymmetric warfare beats superpower militaries

14:15 Greenlighting $1B in taxpayer funds for ballroom is political suicide

15:15 If Obama made the same ask, there would be a media firestorm

16:00 Congress giving Dems a huge political gift by approving funds

17:15 FBI launches investigation into Virginia dem Louise Lucas

18:30 You can’t trust the narratives from Trump’s DOJ

20:00 Trumped up charges against Comey create doubt in other cases

20:45 Administration is poking the bear with African Americans voters

22:00 Supercharged black turnout would change midterm election calculus

23:00 FBI investigation into Atlantic story about Kash Patel’s drinking

23:45 FBI denies investigating the reporter who broke the story

24:30 Denial language suggests a leak investigation exists

26:00 Worried about the future and for this graduating class

28:30 Chuck’s advice for the graduating class of 2026

29:15 Graduates are heading into a very uncertain future

29:45 Adulthood is not a race, don’t always need to hurry

31:00 The first job you take isn’t your forever job

32:00 Don’t confuse a setback with failure

32:45 Respect your elders and respect experience

35:00 Don’t be embarrassed by your struggles or disregard someone else’s

36:00 Life happens. Don’t wait for the perfect time for something

37:15 Road trips are the best way to learn about America

38:15 Don’t be a “Yeah, but” person

40:00 Life is not a competition with your friends’ lives

40:45 It takes a lot of hard work to get lucky

42:00 Sorry that we’ve brought grads into a very angry America

42:30 Talk to people who disagree with you

43:30 If you only experience America through an algorithm, you’ll misunderstand it

47:45 Ask Chuck

48:00 How would you approach teaching, more depth or more breadth?

52:30 Should we pay members of congress more?

56:15 What can make local law enforcement a more enticing job?

1:01:45 How does Trump’s drift towards lame-duck status play out?

1:06:15 Why do you think redistricting would create an electoral backlash?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Ashley Trice and Rob Holbert — co-publishers of Lagniappe, the alt-weekly turned investigative newspaper covering Mobile and Alabama's Gulf Coast — join the Chuck Toddcast to share the origin story of how their independent publication has grown into the region's premier investigative voice. They explain how Lagniappe started as a free paper and has now transitioned to a subscription model behind a paywall, why most newspapers won't even print these days unless they're certain it won't cost them money (and the surprising fact that there's a national shortage of available printers), and how the paper has built its reputation by covering everything from Mobile's local government to scandals in the wealthy parts of town and irresistible animal stories — both of which they say reliably grow audience faster than anything else. Trice and Holbert preview the upcoming Tuberville-Jones gubernatorial race, which they expect to be surprisingly close, and offer a withering assessment of outgoing Governor Kay Ivey's "very inactive" tenure. They walk through the political divide in Alabama where coastal Mobile often feels left out of the conversation, the surprising audience appeal of youth and high school sports coverage, and the looming threat of the Nexstar-Tegna merger gutting even more local newsrooms across the country.

The conversation broadens into the practical realities of running a sustainable local newsroom in 2026. Trice and Holbert explain that the public has been trained to expect news for free, that reaching younger audiences now requires aggressive use of social media platforms and video content, and that live events have become an increasingly important revenue stream for papers like theirs. Trice and Holbert observe that small businesses are still reaching out about advertising — proof that print journalism continues to have a market — and close with a fascinating observation about how coastal Southern cities like Mobile tend to be less polarized than the rest of the South, with a genuine sense of community that gets lost in the national conversation about red-state politics.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ashley Trice & Rob Holbert (Lagniappe) join the Chuck ToddCast

01:30 Origin story of Lagniappe 

03:45 The paper started off free, now is a subscription model behind paywall

05:30 Most papers wait to print unless they know it won’t cost them money

07:00 There’s a shortage of printers available for publications

09:15 Striving to be Alabama’s best investigative newspaper

11:15 Governor’s race between Tuberville & Jones will be close

13:00 Kay Ivey has been a very inactive governor 

14:30 When did local governments understand you were going to cover them?

18:00 There’s a big political divide in Alabama, and Mobile feels left out

19:00 Is youth & high school sports an audience builder?

20:00 Scandals in the rich part of town & animal stories really grow audience

21:00 Nexstar & Tegna merger will gut more local newsrooms

22:45 People have been trained that they don’t have to pay for news

23:15 Have to use social media platforms & video to reach younger audience

25:00 What do you do in the live event space and are those money makers?

27:30 It takes more reporters for coverage that creates dedicated subscribers

29:30 Airbus & shipbuilding have been big economic growth drivers in Mobile

31:00 The “commuter schools” have really grown in recent years in Alabama

33:30 Are there formalized local news networks regionally that could help you?

35:00 No time to create networks, in a constant state of “news triage”

35:30 Small businesses still reach out about advertising

37:30 Print journalism still has a market

40:00 Coastal southern cities tend to be less polarized

40:45 There’s a real sense of community in southern coastal cities

42:00 Where can people find your work?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the morning-after analysis of Indiana's primary results, which he says show Trump still has plenty of juice with his own party — roughly $13 million was spent to influence about 100,000 voters, and the results have created new urgency for Republican-led states across the South to redistrict before the midterms. He notes that being on the wrong side of Trump remains a career-ending move in the GOP, that Thomas Massie's upcoming primary will be a critical test of Trump's intra-party strength, and that Trump has effectively postponed the perception that he's a lame duck — even as the Iran war continues to crater his standing with the broader public. He flags Ohio as setting up to look like a real swing state in 2026, with Vivek Ramaswamy's polarizing style creating an opening for highly-regarded former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, and notes that Iowa and Ohio could both move back toward genuine battleground status. Hethen walks through his fascinating recent participation in a political crisis simulation premised on the idea that January 6th wasn't an anomaly — three teams (Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists) competed for power, and the entire exercise revolved around who could get the capitalists on their side, since their core interest was simply enrichment and instability. The most revealing detail: in the simulation, Congress barely existed and had no measurable impact on outcomes, which Chuck argues mirrors reality and exposes the deeper problem facing American democracy. His blunt verdict: America doesn't actually have a polarization problem — it has a Congress problem, because weak legislatures inevitably create strong executives, Trump simply filled the vacuum a broken Congress created, and the looming gerrymandering wars (with at least eight states set to redraw their maps before 2028) will make Congress even less functional and more purely partisan than it already is. 

Then, Ashley Trice and Rob Holbert — co-publishers of Lagniappe, the alt-weekly turned investigative newspaper covering Mobile and Alabama's Gulf Coast — join the Chuck Toddcast to share the origin story of how their independent publication has grown into the region's premier investigative voice. They explain how Lagniappe started as a free paper and has now transitioned to a subscription model behind a paywall, why most newspapers won't even print these days unless they're certain it won't cost them money (and the surprising fact that there's a national shortage of available printers), and how the paper has built its reputation by covering everything from Mobile's local government to scandals in the wealthy parts of town and irresistible animal stories — both of which they say reliably grow audience faster than anything else. Trice and Holbert preview the upcoming Tuberville-Jones gubernatorial race, which they expect to be surprisingly close, and offer a withering assessment of outgoing Governor Kay Ivey's "very inactive" tenure. They walk through the political divide in Alabama where coastal Mobile often feels left out of the conversation, the surprising audience appeal of youth and high school sports coverage, and the looming threat of the Nexstar-Tegna merger gutting even more local newsrooms across the country.

The conversation broadens into the practical realities of running a sustainable local newsroom in 2026. Trice and Holbert explain that the public has been trained to expect news for free, that reaching younger audiences now requires aggressive use of social media platforms and video content, and that live events have become an increasingly important revenue stream for papers like theirs. Trice and Holbert observe that small businesses are still reaching out about advertising — proof that print journalism continues to have a market — and close with a fascinating observation about how coastal Southern cities like Mobile tend to be less polarized than the rest of the South, with a genuine sense of community that gets lost in the national conversation about red-state politics.

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial one-party droughts that are most likely to end in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:15 Indiana primaries show that Trump still has juice with his party

02:15 $13 million was spent to influence around 100k voters

04:15 Trump has created new urgency to redistrict in the south

05:30 Being on the wrong side of Trump will end your career in the GOP

06:15 Thomas Massie’s primary will be telling about Trump’s strength

08:15 Trump has postponed the perception that he’s a lame duck in his party

09:15 Iran is not going to get better for Trump, and the polling is brutal

11:30 Indiana showed that Trump hasn’t lost his fastball with the GOP

12:30 Ohio is setting up to look like a swing state in 2026

14:30 Vivek Ramaswamy is polarizing and has said some politically dumb things

16:30 Amy Acton is highly regarded for her leadership during Covid

18:30 It’s possible that Iowa and Ohio move back toward battleground status

19:00 Chuck participated in a political crisis simulation 

21:15 Premise of simulation was January 6th wasn’t an anomaly

21:45 Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists and Capitalists

23:00 Entire simulation revolved around who could get capitalists on their side 

24:30 Capitalists want enrichment & instability

25:15 In the simulation, congress barely existed, had no impact

26:15 Stress tests begin with the assumption congress is ineffective

26:45 Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch, but is now weakest

28:15 America doesn’t have a polarization problem, we have a congress problem

29:30 Weak legislatures create strong executives

30:45 We’ve suffered from a failure of imagination in the Trump era

31:30 Trump filled the vacuum that was created by a broken congress

33:30 The gerrymandering wars will make congress even less functional

34:00 At least 8 states will remap between now and 2028

36:00 Congress will be nothing but partisanship after all the gerrymandering

37:30 Don’t just assume that Democrats will pass a gerrymandering ban

39:00 Democracy feels vulnerable because congress doesn’t work

45:00 Ashley Trice & Rob Holbert (Lagniappe) join the Chuck ToddCast

46:30 Origin story of Lagniappe

48:45 The paper started off free, now is a subscription model behind paywall

50:30 Most papers wait to print unless they know it won’t cost them money

52:00 There’s a shortage of printers available for publications

54:15 Striving to be Alabama’s best investigative newspaper

56:15 Governor’s race between Tuberville & Jones will be close

58:00 Kay Ivey has been a very inactive governor

59:30 When did local governments understand you were going to cover them?

1:03:00 There’s a big political divide in Alabama, and Mobile feels left out

1:04:00 Is youth & high school sports an audience builder?

1:05:00 Scandals in the rich part of town & animal stories really grow audience

1:06:00 Nexstar & Tegna merger will gut more local newsrooms

1:07:45 People have been trained that they don’t have to pay for news

1:08:15 Have to use social media platforms & video to reach younger audience

1:10:00 What do you do in the live event space and are those money makers?

1:12:30 It takes more reporters for coverage that creates dedicated subscribers

1:14:30 Airbus & shipbuilding have been big economic growth drivers in Mobile

1:16:00 The “commuter schools” have really grown in recent years in Alabama

1:18:30 Are there formalized local news networks regionally that could help you?

1:20:00 No time to create networks, in a constant state of “news triage”

1:20:30 Small businesses still reach out about advertising

1:22:30 Print journalism still has a market

1:25:00 Coastal southern cities tend to be less polarized

1:25:45 There’s a real sense of community in southern coastal cities

1:27:00 Where can people find your work? 

1:28:00 Alternative weekly’s have been able to become local papers of note

1:29:15 ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial droughts likely to end in 2026

1:33:15 #5 Texas

1:36:15 #4 Alabama

1:39:45 #3 Georgia

1:42:15 #2 Ohio

1:46:30 #1 Iowa

1:47:15 Ask Chuck

1:47:30 With the national debt 100% of GDP, what are the risks if this continues?

1:56:00 Could a SCOTUS confirmation fight improve GOP chances in midterms?

2:01:15 Can the WHCD assailant plead insanity via Trump Derangement Syndrome?

2:04:45 Impact if Texas moved to closed primaries?

2:07:15 Is there any appetite in congress for uncapping the house?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd opens with the morning-after analysis of Indiana's primary results, which he says show Trump still has plenty of juice with his own party — roughly $13 million was spent to influence about 100,000 voters, and the results have created new urgency for Republican-led states across the South to redistrict before the midterms. He notes that being on the wrong side of Trump remains a career-ending move in the GOP, that Thomas Massie's upcoming primary will be a critical test of Trump's intra-party strength, and that Trump has effectively postponed the perception that he's a lame duck — even as the Iran war continues to crater his standing with the broader public. He flags Ohio as setting up to look like a real swing state in 2026, with Vivek Ramaswamy's polarizing style creating an opening for highly-regarded former Ohio Health Director Amy Acton, and notes that Iowa and Ohio could both move back toward genuine battleground status. He then walks through his fascinating recent participation in a political crisis simulation premised on the idea that January 6th wasn't an anomaly — three teams (Institutionalists, Nationalists, and Capitalists) competed for power, and the entire exercise revolved around who could get the capitalists on their side, since their core interest was simply enrichment and instability. The most revealing detail: in the simulation, Congress barely existed and had no measurable impact on outcomes, which Chuck argues mirrors reality and exposes the deeper problem facing American democracy. His blunt verdict: America doesn't actually have a polarization problem — it has a Congress problem, because weak legislatures inevitably create strong executives, Trump simply filled the vacuum a broken Congress created, and the looming gerrymandering wars (with at least eight states set to redraw their maps before 2028) will make Congress even less functional and more purely partisan than it already is. 

Finally, Chuck presents his ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial one-party droughts that are most likely to end in 2026, and answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:15 Indiana primaries show that Trump still has juice with his party

02:15 $13 million was spent to influence around 100k voters

04:15 Trump has created new urgency to redistrict in the south

05:30 Being on the wrong side of Trump will end your career in the GOP

06:15 Thomas Massie’s primary will be telling about Trump’s strength

08:15 Trump has postponed the perception that he’s a lame duck in his party

09:15 Iran is not going to get better for Trump, and the polling is brutal

11:30 Indiana showed that Trump hasn’t lost his fastball with the GOP

12:30 Ohio is setting up to look like a swing state in 2026

14:30 Vivek Ramaswamy is polarizing and has said some politically dumb things

16:30 Amy Acton is highly regarded for her leadership during Covid

18:30 It’s possible that Iowa and Ohio move back toward battleground status

19:00 Chuck participated in a political crisis simulation 

21:15 Premise of simulation was January 6th wasn’t an anomaly

21:45 Three teams: Institutionalists, Nationalists and Capitalists

23:00 Entire simulation revolved around who could get capitalists on their side 

24:30 Capitalists want enrichment & instability

25:15 In the simulation, congress barely existed, had no impact

26:15 Stress tests begin with the assumption congress is ineffective

26:45 Congress is supposed to be the strongest branch, but is now weakest

28:15 America doesn’t have a polarization problem, we have a congress problem

29:30 Weak legislatures create strong executives

30:45 We’ve suffered from a failure of imagination in the Trump era

31:30 Trump filled the vacuum that was created by a broken congress

33:30 The gerrymandering wars will make congress even less functional

34:00 At least 8 states will remap between now and 2028

36:00 Congress will be nothing but partisanship after all the gerrymandering

37:30 Don’t just assume that Democrats will pass a gerrymandering ban

39:00 Democracy feels vulnerable because congress doesn’t work

44:15 ToddCast Top 5 gubernatorial droughts likely to end in 2026

48:15 #5 Texas

51:15 #4 Alabama

54:45 #3 Georgia

57:15 #2 Ohio

1:01:30 #1 Iowa

1:02:15 Ask Chuck

1:02:30 With the national debt 100% of GDP, what are the risks if this continues?

1:11:00 Could a SCOTUS confirmation fight improve GOP chances in midterms?

1:16:15 Can the WHCD assailant plead insanity via Trump Derangement Syndrome?

1:19:45 Impact if Texas moved to closed primaries?

1:22:15 Is there any appetite in congress for uncapping the house?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro — author of the new book After the Fall — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the missed opportunities of the post-Cold War era and what it would take to actually fix what's broken in the global political economy. Shapiro argues America fundamentally squandered its chance to integrate Russia into the West after the Soviet collapse — there should have been a Marshall Plan for Russia along the lines of what was done for Germany and Japan after World War II, and both Yeltsin and Putin (in his early years) actively lobbied to join the Western order. Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically, the 1994 midterm results pushed him away from foreign policy ambition entirely, and the eventual pivot toward NATO expansion in Eastern Europe — rather than transforming NATO into something genuinely inclusive — froze Russia out and is exactly when Putin's worldview hardened into the revanchism we're dealing with today. Shapiro extends this analysis to 2008, calling the financial crisis another massive missed opportunity: Obama had to bail out the banks, but his failure to insist on a parallel bailout for Main Street allowed the elites to rescue themselves while imposing austerity on everyone else, which directly fueled the right-wing populism now reshaping politics across the West.

The conversation pivots to what comes next. Shapiro is clear that the good policies of the 2030s won't be a rehash of the New Deal — they need to address modern realities. He argues governments need to help workers be flexible rather than redistributing wealth through politically toxic taxation, advocating instead for portable health insurance and portable child care that follows the worker. Shapiro makes a forceful case for immigration as the only realistic answer to America's demographic challenges, noting that Spain and Poland are economically outperforming much of Europe specifically because they've embraced immigration to support aging populations. He warns that we're living in a world disturbingly similar to the 1930s — if ordinary people don't benefit from economic growth, they will not continue supporting the existing order — and notes that right-wing populists don't actually have answers; they just attack the elites. Shapiro argues Trump is inadvertently benefiting China enormously, but cautions that authoritarian governments are fundamentally bad at managing complex economies, so it's still unlikely China's model wins the 21st century. Shapiro closes by warning that the anti-Trump coalition has become too big to govern, but that if Zohran Mamdani succeeds in New York, it could meaningfully energize progressive politics nationally — proof that the road forward requires real ideas about power, not just opposition to Trumpism.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Ian Shapiro (After the Fall) joins The Chuck ToddCast

01:30 How long did you work on the book?

03:15 The lack of a Marshall Plan for Russia was a missed opportunity

04:00 Russia should have been dealt with like Germany & Japan after WW2

05:00 Yeltsin & Putin lobbied to join the west & we blew that opportunity

06:15 Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically

07:30 ‘94 midterm results dissuaded Clinton from focusing on foreign policy

09:00 Clinton pivoted from rapprochement NATO expansion in eastern Europe

10:00 There were opportunities to transform NATO into something else

11:30 NATO feels necessary again, we’re back in another cold war

12:30 What if we had brought Ukraine into NATO in the 90s?

13:15 When Russia was frozen out of the west, that’s when Putin changed

13:45 Eastern Europeans have a deep distrust of the Russians

15:00 The rise of right wing populism is driven by economics

15:45 2008 financial crisis was a missed opportunity for Obama

17:30 Elites bailed themselves out in 2008 & imposed austerity on everyone else

19:00 Obama had to bail out banks, but didn’t force a bail out of main street too

20:45 How do you begin to undo protectionism and nationalism?

21:30 Good policies of the 2030s won’t be a rehash of the New Deal

22:30 Gina Riamondo has smart policies for transforming the labor force

24:00 Government needs to aid the modern worker to help them be flexible

25:15 Taxation and redistribution is politically toxic. Better to incentivize business

26:15 Portable health insurance and child care would give workers flexibility

27:30 Domestic immigration is incredibly difficult and cost prohibitive

28:15 Every state needs immigration in order to fix demographic challenges

29:30 Spain & Poland’s economies are performing well because of immigration

30:15 We need immigrants in order to support services for an aging population

31:00 In some ways, we’re living in a world similar to the 1930s

32:15 If people don’t benefit from growth, they won’t support the existing order

33:00 Right wing populists don’t have answers, they just attack the elites

33:30 Spain is one of the few western countries that is getting it right

35:30 The west hasn’t dealt well with the rise of China

36:00 Everything Trump is doing has benefitted China enormously

37:30 Unlikely that China’s model wins the 21st century

38:45 Authoritarian governments aren’t good for managing a complex economy

39:45 India is even further down the nationalist road than the U.S.

41:00 UK’s two major parties are facing the potential of collapse

42:00 Could either of the two major two parties in America collapse?

43:00 Both parties pushing the same policies & benefits go to the top

45:00 Do globally integrated economies make world war less likely?

46:30 Major war results in mutually assured economic destruction

47:30 The calamities of the 30s and 40s led to massive, inclusive economic growth

48:30 Massive, stateless companies are accruing more power than states

50:00 The global oligarchs are still reliant on markets and consumers

50:45 Governments will need to coordinate to put guardrails on the oligarchs

51:30 If business isn’t part of the solution, they will be part of the problem

53:00 The Trump administration is cratering & left is reveling in the schaudenfreude

54:30 The anti-Trump coalition is too big to govern

55:15 If Mamdani succeeds, could that energize progressive politics nationally?

57:15 Where can people find your work?

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign. 

Then, Yale political scientist Ian Shapiro — author of the new book After the Fall — joins the Chuck Toddcast for a wide-ranging conversation about the missed opportunities of the post-Cold War era and what it would take to actually fix what's broken in the global political economy. Shapiro argues America fundamentally squandered its chance to integrate Russia into the West after the Soviet collapse — there should have been a Marshall Plan for Russia along the lines of what was done for Germany and Japan after World War II, and both Yeltsin and Putin (in his early years) actively lobbied to join the Western order. Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically, the 1994 midterm results pushed him away from foreign policy ambition entirely, and the eventual pivot toward NATO expansion in Eastern Europe — rather than transforming NATO into something genuinely inclusive — froze Russia out and is exactly when Putin's worldview hardened into the revanchism we're dealing with today. Shapiro extends this analysis to 2008, calling the financial crisis another massive missed opportunity: Obama had to bail out the banks, but his failure to insist on a parallel bailout for Main Street allowed the elites to rescue themselves while imposing austerity on everyone else, which directly fueled the right-wing populism now reshaping politics across the West.

The conversation pivots to what comes next. Shapiro is clear that the good policies of the 2030s won't be a rehash of the New Deal — they need to address modern realities. He argues governments need to help workers be flexible rather than redistributing wealth through politically toxic taxation, advocating instead for portable health insurance and portable child care that follows the worker. Shapiro makes a forceful case for immigration as the only realistic answer to America's demographic challenges, noting that Spain and Poland are economically outperforming much of Europe specifically because they've embraced immigration to support aging populations. He warns that we're living in a world disturbingly similar to the 1930s — if ordinary people don't benefit from economic growth, they will not continue supporting the existing order — and notes that right-wing populists don't actually have answers; they just attack the elites. Shapiro argues Trump is inadvertently benefiting China enormously, but cautions that authoritarian governments are fundamentally bad at managing complex economies, so it's still unlikely China's model wins the 21st century. Shapiro closes by warning that the anti-Trump coalition has become too big to govern, but that if Zohran Mamdani succeeds in New York, it could meaningfully energize progressive politics nationally — proof that the road forward requires real ideas about power, not just opposition to Trumpism.

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump

09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters

10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border

10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base

12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump

14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president

16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises

18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters

20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself

21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things after himself

24:30 Republicans expected ethics in government to improve & they haven’t

25:45 Both parties still have almost identical unfavorability ratings

26:15 The Democratic brand hasn’t improved amongst swing voters

28:15 Voters of both parties don’t want leaders to work across the aisle

29:15 Neither side is incentivized to compromise

31:15 Voters are rewarding confrontation

33:45 Dems more trusted on healthcare, Republicans trusted on crime

34:15 Almost every other issue is up for grabs for both parties

34:45 Neither party has trust on dealing with AI

36:15 There’s a huge opportunity for independents in this political climate

36:45 There’s a huge enthusiasm gap favoring the Democrats

38:00 This is a political disaster in the making for Republicans

38:30 Iran war is more unpopular than worst polling for Iraq & Vietnam

40:15 Trump’s only escalation option in Iran is to send in ground troops

41:15 If Trump wants to escalate he better have a plan

41:45 Far more damage to American military assets than we were told

42:30 The Iranian framework for a deal will likely be the one agreed to

43:30 There is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily

44:00 Trump risks total political collapse if he escalates in Iran

45:00 Tucker Carlson forced to face facts in recent interview

46:00 Tucker is a combination of Pat Buchanon and Roger Ailes

47:45 Carlson feels like someone who is trying to build a movement

49:00 Expanding congress would fix SCOTUS Voting Rights Act ruling

50:30 There will be angry voters in the south after this ruling

52:00 Republicans could pay a political price due to backlash from SCOTUS

53:45 If Republicans try to disenfranchise black voters, they could juice turnout

54:45 Trump is more focused on targeting disloyal Republicans than Democrats

56:00 Janet Mills drops out, Dems trying to come around on Graham Platner

56:45 Platner race feels like mirror image of 2016 campaign for president

1:03:45 Ian Shapiro (After the Fall) joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:05:15 How long did you work on the book?

1:07:00 The lack of a Marshall Plan for Russia was a missed opportunity

1:07:45 Russia should have been dealt with like Germany & Japan after WW2

1:08:45 Yeltsin & Putin lobbied to join the west & we blew that opportunity

1:10:00 Clinton was hesitant to help Russia economically

1:11:15 ‘94 midterm results dissuaded Clinton from focusing on foreign policy

1:12:45 Clinton pivoted from rapprochement NATO expansion in eastern Europe

1:13:45 There were opportunities to transform NATO into something else

1:15:15 NATO feels necessary again, we’re back in another cold war

1:16:15 What if we had brought Ukraine into NATO in the 90s?

1:17:00 When Russia was frozen out of the west, that’s when Putin changed

1:17:30 Eastern Europeans have a deep distrust of the Russians

1:18:45 The rise of right wing populism is driven by economics

1:19:30 2008 financial crisis was a missed opportunity for Obama

1:21:15 Elites bailed themselves out in 2008 & imposed austerity on everyone else

1:22:45 Obama had to bail out banks, but didn’t force a bail out of main street too

1:24:30 How do you begin to undo protectionism and nationalism?

1:25:15 Good policies of the 2030s won’t be a rehash of the New Deal

1:26:15 Gina Riamondo has smart policies for transforming the labor force

1:27:45 Government needs to aid the modern worker to help them be flexible

1:29:00 Taxation and redistribution is politically toxic. Better to incentivize business

1:30:00 Portable health insurance and child care would give workers flexibility

1:31:15 Domestic immigration is incredibly difficult and cost prohibitive

1:32:00 Every state needs immigration in order to fix demographic challenges

1:33:15 Spain & Poland’s economies are performing well because of immigration

1:34:00 We need immigrants in order to support services for an aging population

1:34:45 In some ways, we’re living in a world similar to the 1930s

1:36:00 If people don’t benefit from growth, they won’t support the existing order

1:36:45 Right wing populists don’t have answers, they just attack the elites

1:37:15 Spain is one of the few western countries that is getting it right

1:39:15 The west hasn’t dealt well with the rise of China

1:39:45 Everything Trump is doing has benefitted China enormously

1:41:15 Unlikely that China’s model wins the 21st century

1:42:30 Authoritarian governments aren’t good for managing a complex economy

1:43:30 India is even further down the nationalist road than the U.S.

1:44:45 UK’s two major parties are facing the potential of collapse

1:45:45 Could either of the two major two parties in America collapse?

1:46:45 Both parties pushing the same policies & benefits go to the top

1:48:45 Do globally integrated economies make world war less likely?

1:50:15 Major war results in mutually assured economic destruction

1:51:15 The calamities of the 30s and 40s led to massive, inclusive economic growth

1:52:15 Massive, stateless companies are accruing more power than states

1:53:45 The global oligarchs are still reliant on markets and consumers

1:54:30 Governments will need to coordinate to put guardrails on the oligarchs

1:55:15 If business isn’t part of the solution, they will be part of the problem

1:56:45 The Trump administration is cratering & left is reveling in the schaudenfreude

1:58:15 The anti-Trump coalition is too big to govern

1:59:00 If Mamdani succeeds, could that energize progressive politics nationally?

2:01:00 Where can people find your work?

2:02:15 Chuck’s thoughts on interview with Ian Shapiro
2:02:30 ToddCast Time Machine - May 6th 1937 - The Hindenburg Disaster
2:03:30 Crowds arrived to watch the Hindenburg arrive
2:04:45 Commercial zeppelin travel had existed for 30 years already
2:05:30 The Hindenburg carried the symbols of Nazi Germany
2:06:15 In 34 seconds the entire airship was destroyed
2:07:00 “Oh The Humanity” becomes an iconic term from broadcasting
2:07:30 The recording wasn’t broadcast live, but was presented as breaking news
2:08:45 Airships fell out of fashion and airplanes made them uncompetitive
2:09:30 The Hindenburg didn’t just fail technically, it failed publicly
2:10:30 Ask Chuck
2:10:45 Have you fallen into the normalization trap? Trump has impeachable offenses
2:16:15 Thoughts on Adam Hamilton running as a Dem in Kansas?
2:19:45 Has any president been as intentionally divisive as Trump?
2:22:00 Take on the expansion of March Madness tournament?
2:26:30 How much impact could the Forward Party have?
2:32:00 Thoughts on the weekend in sports

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd unpacks a wave of devastating new polling that shows Americans have lost confidence in Trump across nearly every metric, with his approval cratering among independents and only his hardcore base still standing by him. He notes Trump is underwater on virtually every issue except taxes, immigration, and the border — that his trustworthiness is lower than any past president, that even 22% of his own 2024 voters don't believe he's kept his promises, and that his approval has collapsed with younger voters even as it holds up with the elderly. In a particularly striking finding, only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself, and even the "own the libs" voters can't get behind that particular vanity. Todd warns this is a political disaster in the making for Republicans: the enthusiasm gap is now massive in the Democrats' favor, and the Iran war is polling more unpopular than the worst polling ever recorded for Iraq or Vietnam. Yet despite all this, neither party's brand has actually improved with swing voters — both parties still carry almost identical unfavorability ratings, voters of both parties don't even want their leaders to work across the aisle anymore, and the political incentives are now firmly aligned with confrontation rather than compromise — creating an enormous opportunity for independent candidates that neither major party seems prepared to address. On Iran, he says there is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily — his only real escalation option would be ground troops, which would risk total political collapse — and predicts the eventual deal will look like whatever framework the Iranians put forward. He flags a striking recent Tucker Carlson interview in which Carlson was forced to face hard facts, observing that Tucker increasingly looks like a combination of Pat Buchanan and Roger Ailes who is genuinely trying to build a political movement of his own. He returns to the case for expanding the House of Representatives as the fix for the Supreme Court's Voting Rights Act ruling, warns that Republicans could pay a serious political price if Southern voters perceive the GOP as actively trying to disenfranchise Black voters and closes with the news that Janet Mills has dropped out of the Maine Senate race — leaving Democrats now trying to coalesce around Graham Platner, in what Chuck says feels increasingly like a mirror image of the 2016 presidential campaign. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to revisit the Hindenburg disaster and how it was the origin of “breaking news”, and also answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment.

Try ShipStation free for 60 days with full access to all features, No credit card needed! Go to https://ShipStation.com and use code TODDCAST for 60 days for free!

Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

08:30 New polling shows Americans have no confidence in Trump

09:15 Trump’s approval has cratered with independent voters

10:00 Trump is only above his approval rating on taxes, immigration and border

10:45 The only people that approve of Trump are his base

12:45 The polling shows a massive repudiation of Trump

14:15 Trump’s trustworthiness is lower than any past president

16:45 Only 78% of Trump voters believe he’s kept his promises

18:15 Trump’s highest approval is with older voters, collapsed with younger voters

20:00 Only 1 in 10 Americans approve of Trump naming things after himself

21:00 Even the “own the libs” voters don’t like Trump naming things after himself

24:30 Republicans expected ethics in government to improve & they haven’t

25:45 Both parties still have almost identical unfavorability ratings

26:15 The Democratic brand hasn’t improved amongst swing voters

28:15 Voters of both parties don’t want leaders to work across the aisle

29:15 Neither side is incentivized to compromise

31:15 Voters are rewarding confrontation

33:45 Dems more trusted on healthcare, Republicans trusted on crime

34:15 Almost every other issue is up for grabs for both parties

34:45 Neither party has trust on dealing with AI

36:15 There’s a huge opportunity for independents in this political climate

36:45 There’s a huge enthusiasm gap favoring the Democrats

38:00 This is a political disaster in the making for Republicans

38:30 Iran war is more unpopular than worst polling for Iraq & Vietnam

40:15 Trump’s only escalation option in Iran is to send in ground troops

41:15 If Trump wants to escalate he better have a plan

41:45 Far more damage to American military assets than we were told

42:30 The Iranian framework for a deal will likely be the one agreed to

43:30 There is no political room for Trump to escalate militarily

44:00 Trump risks total political collapse if he escalates in Iran

45:00 Tucker Carlson forced to face facts in recent interview

46:00 Tucker is a combination of Pat Buchanon and Roger Ailes

47:45 Carlson feels like someone who is trying to build a movement

49:00 Expanding congress would fix SCOTUS Voting Rights Act ruling

50:30 There will be angry voters in the south after this ruling

52:00 Republicans could pay a political price due to backlash from SCOTUS

53:45 If Republicans try to disenfranchise black voters, they could juice turnout

54:45 Trump is more focused on targeting disloyal Republicans than Democrats

56:00 Janet Mills drops out, Dems trying to come around on Graham Platner

56:45 Platner race feels like mirror image of 2016 campaign for president

1:02:15 ToddCast Time Machine - May 6th 1937 - The Hindenburg Disaster

1:03:15 Crowds arrived to watch the Hindenburg 

1:04:30 Commercial zeppelin travel had existed for 30 years already

1:05:15 The Hindenburg carried the symbols of Nazi Germany

1:06:00 In 34 seconds the entire airship was destroyed

1:06:45 “Oh The Humanity” becomes an iconic term from broadcasting

1:07:15 The recording wasn’t broadcast live, but was presented as breaking news

1:08:30 Airships fell out of fashion and airplanes made them uncompetitive

1:09:15 The Hindenburg didn’t just fail technically, it failed publicly

1:10:15 Ask Chuck

1:10:30 Have you fallen into the normalization trap? Trump has impeachable offenses

1:16:00 Thoughts on Adam Hamilton running as a Dem in Kansas?

1:19:30 Has any president been as intentionally divisive as Trump?

1:21:45 Take on the expansion of March Madness tournament?

1:26:15 How much impact could the Forward Party have?

1:31:45 Thoughts on the weekend in sports

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Adam Green — co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee — joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that pragmatic economic populism is the Democratic Party's path back to a durable majority, and to push back hard on the conventional wisdom that "moderate" means "centrist." Green argues the public has lost faith in both political and economic systems and is hungry for candidates who tell a clear story about power — pointing to Maine's Graham Platner, Texas's James Talarico, and New York's Zohran Mamdani as examples of progressives who project authentic energy and pragmatic problem-solving rather than ideological purity. He contends that both major parties have already collapsed reputationally even if they haven't yet collapsed structurally, that Democrats could have passed a $12 minimum wage years ago if they'd been willing to compromise, and that recruiting 77-year-old Janet Mills against Platner is symbolic of everything wrong with Chuck Schumer's approach to the Senate. Green is blunt: if Democrats sweep the midterms but leadership remains unchanged, it actually hurts them in 2028 — a Democratic Senate majority should not be read as a validation of Schumer. They discuss why he Democratic brand is so damaged in red and rural states that independent candidates may be the best path to power in places like Montana and Nebraska, and that having someone like Platner in Senate leadership would dramatically improve Democratic performance in rural America.

The conversation digs into the deeper strategic and policy questions facing the party. Green argues Democrats should lead with economic alignment over cultural alignment and that Dems should not put reproductive rights forward as their headline issue if they want to rebuild trust in the heartland. He pushes for progressive lawmakers to assert real leverage against their own leadership, advocates lowering the threshold for discharge petition, and makes the case that getting rid of the filibuster would help Democrats rebuild trust with voters who are tired of seeing nothing get done. Green is open to limited cooperation with Trump if Democrats win both chambers but warns the party shouldn't trim its sails just to get a signature. He explains why the PCC backed Talarico over Crockett , names UAW president Shawn Fain as a potential dark-horse candidate, and floats Stephen Colbert as a genuinely intriguing possibility because performance matters in a media-saturated era. Green argues Talarico, Platner, and Abdul El-Sayed all tell a coherent story about power that voters are hungry to hear, but ultimately, the candidate who runs as a genuine disruptor is the one most likely to win, because the current system is so visibly failing the public.

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Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Adam Green (Progressive Change Committee) joins The Chuck ToddCast

02:30 What does it mean to be a pragmatic progressive?

03:45 The mission is to show economic populism can win in swing races

05:00 Graham Platner is a great storyteller, not a policy wonk

06:30 Several progressive candidates project strong masculine energy

08:00 Balancing incrementalism vs. progress

08:45 Mamdani is showing that you can be both progressive & pragmatic

09:45 Misconception is that “moderate” means centrist

10:30 The progressives are demanding a rebalancing of the power dynamics

11:00 Public doesn’t trust the political and economic system, wants change

11:45 How vulnerable are both parties to collapse at some point?

12:30 Both parties have collapsed reputationally, just not structurally

14:15 Dems could have passed $12 minimum wage if they compromised

16:30 If Dems sweep midterms but leaders stay the same, it’s bad for 2028

17:15 If Dems win the senate, it’s not a validation of Schumer

18:30 If Dems elect the non Schumer candidates, he has to go

19:15 Schumer was a really good leader… until he wasn’t

20:00 Recruiting 77 year old Janet Mills is symbolic of Schumer’s strategy

20:45 Sherrod Brown is probably the best Dems can do in Ohio

21:15 Iowa is overindexed as a swing state

23:00 Michigan having El-Sayed & Slokin would show multiple ways to win

24:00 If El-Sayed loses, does that set the progressive movement back?

25:30 Are independents the best route to power in Montana & Nebraska?

26:30 The Democratic brand is shot in most red & rural states

27:45 If Platner was in leadership, Dems would do better in rural states

29:00 What matters more to the PCC, economic or cultural alignment?

30:45 Democrats shouldn’t put out reproductive rights as their banner issue

31:30 Big Dem wins in the past came from economic, not cultural alignment

33:45 Jared Golden able to vote against trans sports bill, focused on economics

36:00 Want to see progressives assert leverage against their leadership

37:00 Proposal to lower the threshold for discharge petitions

37:45 Discharge petitions would actually liberate the leadership a bit

39:00 When too many items are stuffed into a bill, you don’t get credit for them

40:00 Getting rid of the filibuster would help Democrats rebuild trust

41:00 Both parties only like the filibuster when they’re out of power

42:30 Getting rid of stock trading isn’t as simple as it sounds

44:15 Spouses need to be included in stock trading ban

45:00 If Dems win both houses, where should they work with Trump?

46:15 Dems will be elected to be a check on Trump, but need his signature

49:15 Working with Trump requires abandoning the ideas you ran on

50:30 Dems shouldn’t trim their sails in order to work with Trump

53:00 PCC supported Talarico over Crockett for his bold economic vision

55:30 AOC may need to run for president soon, before her “sell by” date

56:15 Stephen Colbert could be an intriguing candidate, performance matters

57:30 Mamdani takes time every day to tell a story on social media

58:45 Shawn Fain could also make a strong candidate

1:00:00 If Talarico wins in Texas, it could put him on the presidential map

1:01:45 Talarico as VP to get his sea legs could be a potential route

1:02:30 McMorrow positioning herself as the “goldilocks” candidate

1:03:15 Being the shake up the system candidate is the way to go

1:04:00 Talarico, Platner & El-Sayed tell a story about power

1:04:45 The current system is failing the public

1:06:45 Preference between Steyer or Porter in California?

1:08:00 AOC raises the most money because people trust her

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd dives into the Supreme Court's latest ruling further hollowing out the Voting Rights Act and walks through what it actually means in practice — including the very real possibility that several Southern states will now try to redistrict, creating a messy political landscape that won't necessarily benefit Republicans in the way they hope. He traces the history back to the 1990s Georgia reapportionment that led to major GOP pickups by packing Black Democratic voters into fewer districts, but warns this round of Southern redistricting will create more swing districts. He uses the moment to make the case for what he sees as the real structural fix to America's representation crisis: uncapping the House of Representatives to allow it to grow with population the way the founders originally intended, with Madison himself arguing the chamber would always need to expand. He argues that a bigger House would lower the barrier for third parties, minimize the outsized impact of the Electoral College, dramatically reduce the incentive to gerrymander — and crucially, this change wouldn't exclusively benefit either party. His framing is simple: stop fighting over the chairs at the table and increase the size of the table itself. He then pivots to what he calls the rise of the "woke right" — citing the second Comey indictment as exhibit A, noting that the right has now embraced exactly the kind of oversensitivity they once accused the left of engaging in, and pointing out it's no accident that Pam Bondi wouldn't bring the Comey case but Todd Blanche will. He flags that the FCC's attacks on Jimmy Kimmel will badly backfire, dismisses the Hegseth congressional hearing as a useless exercise where everyone was just chasing viral moments, and argues that Hegseth himself is suffering from a bad case of "internet brain" — actively politicizing the military while failing to make a coherent case for why the Iran war was ever necessary. He closes with a pointed observation about the entire administration: nobody around Trump believes any criticism of him is ever valid, and they appear to genuinely think voters are stupid enough to never notice. 

Then, Adam Green — co-founder of the Progressive Change Campaign Committee — joins the Chuck Toddcast to make the case that pragmatic economic populism is the Democratic Party's path back to a durable majority, and to push back hard on the conventional wisdom that "moderate" means "centrist." Green argues the public has lost faith in both political and economic systems and is hungry for candidates who tell a clear story about power — pointing to Maine's Graham Platner, Texas's James Talarico, and New York's Zohran Mamdani as examples of progressives who project authentic energy and pragmatic problem-solving rather than ideological purity. He contends that both major parties have already collapsed reputationally even if they haven't yet collapsed structurally, that Democrats could have passed a $12 minimum wage years ago if they'd been willing to compromise, and that recruiting 77-year-old Janet Mills against Platner is symbolic of everything wrong with Chuck Schumer's approach to the Senate. Green is blunt: if Democrats sweep the midterms but leadership remains unchanged, it actually hurts them in 2028 — a Democratic Senate majority should not be read as a validation of Schumer. They discuss why he Democratic brand is so damaged in red and rural states that independent candidates may be the best path to power in places like Montana and Nebraska, and that having someone like Platner in Senate leadership would dramatically improve Democratic performance in rural America.

The conversation digs into the deeper strategic and policy questions facing the party. Green argues Democrats should lead with economic alignment over cultural alignment and that Dems should not put reproductive rights forward as their headline issue if they want to rebuild trust in the heartland. He pushes for progressive lawmakers to assert real leverage against their own leadership, advocates lowering the threshold for discharge petition, and makes the case that getting rid of the filibuster would help Democrats rebuild trust with voters who are tired of seeing nothing get done. Green is open to limited cooperation with Trump if Democrats win both chambers but warns the party shouldn't trim its sails just to get a signature. He explains why the PCC backed Talarico over Crockett , names UAW president Shawn Fain as a potential dark-horse candidate, and floats Stephen Colbert as a genuinely intriguing possibility because performance matters in a media-saturated era. Green argues Talarico, Platner, and Abdul El-Sayed all tell a coherent story about power that voters are hungry to hear, but ultimately, the candidate who runs as a genuine disruptor is the one most likely to win, because the current system is so visibly failing the public.

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the “Ask Chuck” segment, weighs in on the DNC choosing NOT to release their 2024 autopsy, and reacts to the expansion on the NCAA basketball tournament. 

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Thank you Wildgrain for sponsoring. Visit http://wildgrain.com/TODDCAST and use the code "TODDCAST" at checkout to receive $30 off your first box PLUS free Croissants for life!

Protect your family with life insurance from Ethos. Get up to $3 million in coverage in as little as 10 minutes at https://ethos.com/chuck. Application times may vary. Rates may vary.

Link in bio or go to https://getsoul.com & enter code TODDCAST for 30% off your first order.

Timeline:

(Timestamps may vary based on advertisements)

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

01:30 Supreme Court further hollows out the Voting Rights Act

03:00 You may see several states in the south try to redistrict

06:00 We have a serious representation issue in congress

07:30 In the 90’s Georgia reapportionment led to major GOP pickups

09:00 Led to more black Dems in congress, but less Dems in congress

10:00 Redistricting won’t be clean for GOP in this political climate

10:30 Redistricting will create more swing districts in the south

12:15 You may see racially charged Dem primaries in new districts

13:45 Uncapping the House of Representatives could solve this issue

14:15 House expanded based on population growth

16:15 Right now the house is not representative of the people

17:45 Multi-member districts also provide better representation

19:00 Bigger house would create less need for gerrymandering

20:00 Expanding house would minimize the impact of electoral college

21:30 Expanded house would lower barrier to entry for third parties

23:00 The house was always meant to be a bit messy

23:30 Madison argued the house was always going to have to expand

25:00 This change wouldn’t exclusively benefit one party

26:00 Don’t fight over the chairs, increase the size of the table

28:00 The “woke right” has emerged, evidenced by Comey indictment

29:30 Right accused the left of the oversensitivity they’re engaged in now

31:00 Attacks by the FCC on Kimmel will backfire and look terrible

33:15 Not an accident that Bondi wouldn’t bring Comey case & Blanche will

34:15 Hegseth’s hearing was useless, everyone wanted a viral moment

35:30 Hegseth is suffering from a bad case of “internet brain”

36:30 Hegseth is doing everything he can to politicize the military

37:15 Hegseth failed to make the case for why the war was necessary

39:00 Nobody in the administration believes that any criticism is valid

40:15 Do they really think the voters are all stupid? 

46:30 Adam Green (Progressive Change Committee) joins The Chuck ToddCast

49:00 What does it mean to be a pragmatic progressive?

50:15 The mission is to show economic populism can win in swing races

51:30 Graham Platner is a great storyteller, not a policy wonk

53:00 Several progressive candidates project strong masculine energy

54:30 Balancing incrementalism vs. progress

55:15 Mamdani is showing that you can be both progressive & pragmatic

56:15 Misconception is that “moderate” means centrist

57:00 The progressives are demanding a rebalancing of the power dynamics

57:30 Public doesn’t trust the political and economic system, wants change

58:15 How vulnerable are both parties to collapse at some point?

59:00 Both parties have collapsed reputationally, just not structurally

1:00:45 Dems could have passed $12 minimum wage if they compromised

1:03:00 If Dems sweep midterms but leaders stay the same, it’s bad for 2028

1:03:45 If Dems win the senate, it’s not a validation of Schumer

1:05:00 If Dems elect the non Schumer candidates, he has to go

1:05:45 Schumer was a really good leader… until he wasn’t

1:06:30 Recruiting 77 year old Janet Mills is symbolic of Schumer’s strategy

1:07:15 Sherrod Brown is probably the best Dems can do in Ohio

1:07:45 Iowa is overindexed as a swing state

1:09:30 Michigan having El-Sayed & Slokin would show multiple ways to win

1:10:30 If El-Sayed loses, does that set the progressive movement back?

1:12:00 Are independents the best route to power in Montana & Nebraska?

1:13:00 The Democratic brand is shot in most red & rural states

1:14:15 If Platner was in leadership, Dems would do better in rural states

1:15:30 What matters more to the PCC, economic or cultural alignment?

1:17:15 Democrats shouldn’t put out reproductive rights as their banner issue

1:18:00 Big Dem wins in the past came from economic, not cultural alignment

1:20:15 Jared Golden able to vote against trans sports bill, focused on economics

1:22:30 Want to see progressives assert leverage against their leadership

1:23:30 Proposal to lower the threshold for discharge petitions

1:24:15 Discharge petitions would actually liberate the leadership a bit

1:25:30 When too many items are stuffed into a bill, you don’t get credit for them

1:26:30 Getting rid of the filibuster would help Democrats rebuild trust

1:27:30 Both parties only like the filibuster when they’re out of power

1:29:00 Getting rid of stock trading isn’t as simple as it sounds

1:30:45 Spouses need to be included in stock trading ban

1:31:30 If Dems win both houses, where should they work with Trump?

1:32:45 Dems will be elected to be a check on Trump, but need his signature

1:35:45 Working with Trump requires abandoning the ideas you ran on

1:37:00 Dems shouldn’t trim their sails in order to work with Trump

1:39:30 PCC supported Talarico over Crockett for his bold economic vision

1:42:00 AOC may need to run for president soon, before her “sell by” date

1:42:45 Stephen Colbert could be an intriguing candidate, performance matters

1:44:00 Mamdani takes time every day to tell a story on social media

1:45:15 Shawn Fain could also make a strong candidate

1:46:30 If Talarico wins in Texas, it could put him on the presidential map

1:48:15 Talarico as VP to get his sea legs could be a potential route

1:49:00 McMorrow positioning herself as the “goldilocks” candidate

1:49:45 Being the shake up the system candidate is the way to go

1:50:30 Talarico, Platner & El-Sayed tell a story about power

1:51:15 The current system is failing the public

1:53:15 Preference between Steyer or Porter in California?

1:54:30 AOC raises the most money because people trust her 

1:57:30 Ask Chuck

1:57:45 Experienced wildfires, in bad conditions there’s nothing you can do

1:59:00 What do you make of Hegseth purging so many top generals?

2:01:00 Props for “Dynastic” podcast

2:03:00 How do you see the US/Israel dynamic play out post-Trump?

2:06:30 Do you see a path forward for statehood for D.C. & Puerto Rico?

2:10:15 Why don’t interviewers press Lindsey Graham on his post J6 remarks?

2:13:00 Should Democrats be more forceful rhetorically or does that do more harm?

2:17:15 Ken Martin appears on Pod Save to explain why they won’t release ‘24 autopsy

2:18:30 Autopsy could have offended a particular set of donors or supporters

2:19:45 How do you learn lessons from the loss if you don’t share those lessons?

2:20:30 NCAA expanding basketball tournament

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.