Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour joins Chuck Todd the same day Reuters reported the CFTC privately warned the exchange it could face charges over how it filed dozens of new contracts — a matter Mansour calls a small procedural error. He makes the structural case that a prediction market isn’t a sportsbook: no house, no odds-setting, 70 cents taken on every $100 versus a book’s $15 to $20, and a model that rewards good information rather than banning the people who have it. Chuck presses him on the semantics, on where the lines get drawn (war and wildfires banned, hurricanes allowed, the teleprompter market a harder call), and tells him his midterm victory lap was overheated — anybody can call a landslide, and October 15th is the real test, not November 2nd. Plus Lebanon, Hayek, and why he turned down the acquisition offers. Kalshi is a former advertiser on the Chuck ToddCast. 

Timeline:

00:00 Tarek Mansour joins the Chuck ToddCast

01:00 What a prediction market is, difference between trade and a bet

06:00 Hedging real risk and why small businesses need predictability

09:45 Launching a new market:  rules & prohibited categories, 

16:54 Stock perpsand the CFTC’s complaint over unfiled products

20:52 Insider trading vs. the wisdom of crowds

28:46 Multi-event contracts, catching insiders, and Chuck’s own playoff-market experiment

36:00 Virginia’s rule, the Fed, and enforcing instead of banning

43:41 Should the trading age be 25? Baningn sports markets without banning sportsbooks

47:40 Chuck: your midterm victory lap was overheated

52:35 Lebanon, math, Hayek, and why Goldman and Citadel never built this

55:55 Scale, retirement portfolios, and whether a market can manufacture a narrative

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd on the arithmetic of a failed impeachment — eleven absent Democrats, and Massie unable to find a single Republican to join him — and on John Thune’s startlingly blunt post-mortem, which Chuck reads as a roadmap of exactly where Democrats can pick off votes in a lame duck where the Pentagon badly needs money. His argument for the new majority is simple: voters want a government that looks out for them, affordability has to come first, and getting caught trying beats waiting for consensus on healthcare. Then the harder stuff — a DOJ threatening to prosecute Democrats who conduct oversight, a leadership fight Schumer insists he’s already won, and the Nvidia scandal, where Jensen Huang has admitted an affair with a woman U.S. intelligence reportedly suspects of working for Beijing and a White House that was briefed and chose not to act. Plus why Republicans were blindsided by a wave, and the races still being counted. 

Then, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour joins Chuck Todd the same day Reuters reported the CFTC privately warned the exchange it could face charges over how it filed dozens of new contracts — a matter Mansour calls a small procedural error. He makes the structural case that a prediction market isn’t a sportsbook: no house, no odds-setting, 70 cents taken on every $100 versus a book’s $15 to $20, and a model that rewards good information rather than banning the people who have it. Chuck presses him on the semantics, on where the lines get drawn (war and wildfires banned, hurricanes allowed, the teleprompter market a harder call), and tells him his midterm victory lap was overheated — anybody can call a landslide, and October 15th is the real test, not November 2nd. Plus Lebanon, Hayek, and why he turned down the acquisition offers. Kalshi is a former advertiser on the Chuck ToddCast. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Why Hegseth’s impeachment died, and what Democratic absences cost

08:30 Thune’s blunt post-mortem and the openings it hands Democrats

17:15 Affordability first, healthcare harder, and getting caught trying

25:30 The leadership problem, and whether 2026 is the GOP’s floor

31:15 DOJ threatens Democrats who investigate, and the Nvidia scandal breaks open

41:30 Megaspeed, the chips, and the risk of personalizing foreign policy

48:15 What an investigation would expose, and why Republicans were blindsided

55:00 Mississippi, Alaska, the gerrymander backfire, and the races still uncalled 

1:05:00 Tarek Mansour joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:06:00 What a prediction market is, difference between trade and a bet

1:11:00 Hedging real risk and why small businesses need predictability

1:14:45 Launching a new market:  rules & prohibited categories, 

1:21:54 Stock perpsand the CFTC’s complaint over unfiled products

1:25:52 Insider trading vs. the wisdom of crowds

1:33:46 Multi-event contracts, catching insiders, and Chuck’s own playoff-market experiment

1:41:00 Virginia’s rule, the Fed, and enforcing instead of banning

1:48:41 Should the trading age be 25? Baningn sports markets without banning sportsbooks

1:52:40 Chuck: your midterm victory lap was overheated

1:57:35 Lebanon, math, Hayek, and why Goldman and Citadel never built this

2:00:55 Scale, retirement portfolios, and whether a market can manufacture a narrative

2:08:00 Ask Chuck

2:08:15 Thoughts on the 2002 election being a “change election”

2:13:15 How does booking a guest on cable news work?

2:16:45 Should Ossoff run for majority leader?

2:20:30 Has any party ever had three successful midterms in a row?

2:22:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd on the arithmetic of a failed impeachment — eleven absent Democrats, and Massie unable to find a single Republican to join him — and on John Thune’s startlingly blunt post-mortem, which Chuck reads as a roadmap of exactly where Democrats can pick off votes in a lame duck where the Pentagon badly needs money. His argument for the new majority is simple: voters want a government that looks out for them, affordability has to come first, and getting caught trying beats waiting for consensus on healthcare. Then the harder stuff — a DOJ threatening to prosecute Democrats who conduct oversight, a leadership fight Schumer insists he’s already won, and the Nvidia scandal, where Jensen Huang has admitted an affair with a woman U.S. intelligence reportedly suspects of working for Beijing and a White House that was briefed and chose not to act. Plus why Republicans were blindsided by a wave, and the races still being counted. 

Finally, he answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and previews the upcoming weekend in college football.

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

05:00 Why Hegseth’s impeachment died, and what Democratic absences cost

08:30 Thune’s blunt post-mortem and the openings it hands Democrats

17:15 Affordability first, healthcare harder, and getting caught trying

25:30 The leadership problem, and whether 2026 is the GOP’s floor

31:15 DOJ threatens Democrats who investigate, and the Nvidia scandal breaks open

41:30 Megaspeed, the chips, and the risk of personalizing foreign policy

48:15 What an investigation would expose, and why Republicans were blindsided

55:00 Mississippi, Alaska, the gerrymander backfire, and the races still uncalled 

1:03:00 Ask Chuck

1:03:15 Thoughts on the 2002 election being a “change election”

1:08:15 How does booking a guest on cable news work?

1:11:45 Should Ossoff run for majority leader?

1:15:30 Has any party ever had three successful midterms in a row?

1:17:30 College football preview

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

(Note: Most of this episode was recorded prior the Wednesday’s vote in the house)

Chuck Todd breaks down Republicans electing John Thune and Jim Jordan to leadership — arguing Jordan is who you pick when you’ve accepted being in the minority for a while, a choice that makes the base feel better without winning anything back, with the GOP now facing a two-cycle deficit. The bulk of the episode is Thomas Massie’s impeachment resolution against Pete Hegseth over unauthorized hostilities in Iran, Venezuela and Yemen. He argues Hegseth’s press conference was performed for an audience of one, that hiding behind the troops was disgusting, and that civilian military leadership should be held to the highest account — the military belongs to all of us, not to Trump. The public deserves to hear the evidence a trial would produce, particularly on war powers and the Caribbean boat strikes. He also breaks down several important ballot measure results from across the country.

Then, veteran sports labor attorney Jim Quinn joins the Chuck ToddCast with MLB barreling toward a December 2 lockout. The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, owners are pushing a salary cap and floor — currently proposed to phase in by 2028 at roughly $258 million and $180 million — and the players’ association has vowed never to accept one. Quinn walks through the nuclear option nobody’s modeled out: if the union decertifies, it’s unclear who could stop a lockout, whether guaranteed contracts survive, and whether every superstar in the sport suddenly hits free agency. He explains why owners failed to win a cap in 1994, why MLB franchise values haven’t kept pace with other leagues because of media rights, and why Rob Manfred doesn’t want a lockout defining his legacy. Plus a detailed turn to college sports, where Quinn gives the Protect College Sports Act zero chance of passing.

Finally, Chuck presents the ToddCast Top 5 states that will enter battleground status for the 2028 election and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Thune, Jordan, and what the leadership picks signal

12:00 The Hegseth impeachment push and a Pentagon in disarray

20:30 A devastated GOP conference and the vote math

27:00 Would a trial happen in this Senate or the next one?

30:00 The Mayorkas precedent and what Thune could do

37:30 Headaches for Thune and Johnson, and chaos in DC

42:15 War powers, the boat strikes, and the evidence voters deserve

45:45 The “warrior ethos” and hiding behind the troops

1:00:30 Amendment 3 and a possible rural revolt in Florida

1:02:30 Missouri rejects the map, and the fight over ballot measures

1:09:30 Ranked choice survives in Alaska

1:12:15 Tax measures fail, and Washington’s anti-trans sports bill passes 

1:24:00 Jim Quinn joins the Chuck ToddCast

1:26:45 Decertification and who could stop a lockout

1:30:15 December lockout, ongoing talks, and the pressure on both sides

1:33:30 Would contracts be voided? And the superstar free agency risk

1:35:45 What success looks like for owners — and the 1994 precedent

1:42:00 Franchise values, media rights, and why MLB lags

1:45:30 Manfred’s legacy and whether players accept an incremental cap

1:50:45 The Dodgers problem and which owners can reach Manfred

1:57:00 Is there a revenue sharing deal to be had?

2:00:15 Fixing college sports’ labor structure

2:03:00 Why the Protect College Sports Act is dead

2:06:30 The NLRB’s role, mock negotiations, and the NIL correction

2:13:00 ToddCast Top 5 states to end up in the fall 2028 battleground

2:14:00 #5 Minnesota

2:16:15 #4 Mississippi

2:17:15 #3 South Carolina

2:18:00 #2 Florida

2:19:45 #1 Texas

2:20:45 Honorable mentions

2:21:00 Ask Chuck

2:21:15 What happens if popular vote compact elects a Republican?

2:24:45 Should congress ask Trump for a written SOTU rather than speech?

2:26:00 Shouldn’t the Utah Utes get more love from the ToddCast

2:29:30 Election night coverage in the US versus Europe

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Veteran sports labor attorney Jim Quinn joins the Chuck ToddCast with MLB barreling toward a December 2 lockout. The collective bargaining agreement expires December 1, owners are pushing a salary cap and floor — currently proposed to phase in by 2028 at roughly $258 million and $180 million — and the players’ association has vowed never to accept one. Quinn walks through the nuclear option nobody’s modeled out: if the union decertifies, it’s unclear who could stop a lockout, whether guaranteed contracts survive, and whether every superstar in the sport suddenly hits free agency. He explains why owners failed to win a cap in 1994, why MLB franchise values haven’t kept pace with other leagues because of media rights, and why Rob Manfred doesn’t want a lockout defining his legacy. Plus a detailed turn to college sports, where Quinn gives the Protect College Sports Act zero chance of passing. 

Timeline:

00:00 Jim Quinn joins the Chuck ToddCast

02:45 Decertification and who could stop a lockout

06:15 December lockout, ongoing talks, and the pressure on both sides

09:30 Would contracts be voided? And the superstar free agency risk

11:45 What success looks like for owners — and the 1994 precedent

18:00 Franchise values, media rights, and why MLB lags

21:30 Manfred’s legacy and whether players accept an incremental cap

26:45 The Dodgers problem and which owners can reach Manfred

33:00 Is there a revenue sharing deal to be had?

36:15 Fixing college sports’ labor structure

39:00 Why the Protect College Sports Act is dead

42:30 The NLRB’s role, mock negotiations, and the NIL correction

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

(Note: Most of this episode was recorded prior the Wednesday’s vote in the house)

Chuck Todd breaks down Republicans electing John Thune and Jim Jordan to leadership — arguing Jordan is who you pick when you’ve accepted being in the minority for a while, a choice that makes the base feel better without winning anything back, with the GOP now facing a two-cycle deficit. The bulk of the episode is Thomas Massie’s impeachment resolution against Pete Hegseth over unauthorized hostilities in Iran, Venezuela and Yemen. He argues Hegseth’s press conference was performed for an audience of one, that hiding behind the troops was disgusting, and that civilian military leadership should be held to the highest account — the military belongs to all of us, not to Trump. The public deserves to hear the evidence a trial would produce, particularly on war powers and the Caribbean boat strikes. He also breaks down several important ballot measure results from across the country.

Finally, Chuck presents the ToddCast Top 5 states that will enter battleground status for the 2028 election and answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment. 

Timeline:

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:00 Thune, Jordan, and what the leadership picks signal

12:00 The Hegseth impeachment push and a Pentagon in disarray

20:30 A devastated GOP conference and the vote math

27:00 Would a trial happen in this Senate or the next one?

30:00 The Mayorkas precedent and what Thune could do

37:30 Headaches for Thune and Johnson, and chaos in DC

42:15 War powers, the boat strikes, and the evidence voters deserve

45:45 The “warrior ethos” and hiding behind the troops

1:00:30 Amendment 3 and a possible rural revolt in Florida

1:02:30 Missouri rejects the map, and the fight over ballot measures

1:09:30 Ranked choice survives in Alaska

1:12:15 Tax measures fail, and Washington’s anti-trans sports bill passes 

1:21:30 ToddCast Top 5 states to end up in the fall 2028 battleground

1:22:30 #5 Minnesota

1:24:45 #4 Mississippi

1:25:45 #3 South Carolina

1:26:30 #2 Florida

1:28:15 #1 Texas

1:29:15 Honorable mentions

1:29:30 Ask Chuck

1:29:45 What happens if popular vote compact elects a Republican?

1:33:15 Should congress ask Trump for a written SOTU rather than speech?

1:34:30 Shouldn’t the Utah Utes get more love from the ToddCast

1:38:00 Election night coverage in the US versus Europe

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Former Ohio Governor John Kasich joins Chuck Todd and J.A. Adande to share his firsthand experiences with Ohio State football, from his friendship with legendary coach Woody Hayes to his relationships with Bo Schembechler, Jim Tressel, and Urban Meyer.

Kasich shares behind-the-scenes stories about Ohio State's greatest coaches, including the time he encouraged Urban Meyer to let Joe Burrow leave Columbus. He also discusses the Buckeyes' heated rivalry with Michigan, Ryan Day's relationship with Ohio State fans, Archie Griffin, and the changing landscape of college football with NIL and the transfer portal.

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd’s MVP of the midterms is John Roberts. In the first Super Tuesday after Democrats swept the House, the Senate and a majority of governorships, Chuck and Chris Cillizza go straight to superlatives — five best-run campaigns, five worst, five most overrated ideas, five biggest ironies — and the thread through all of them is that Republicans beat themselves. Mid-decade redistricting is Chuck’s worst campaign of the cycle: maps drawn off Trump’s 2024 numbers blew up in South Texas and South Florida, while the Court’s gutting of the Voting Rights Act helped produce what may be the largest Black midterm turnout on record. Plus the best-run campaign nobody mentioned on election night, the case that polling isn’t broken (paying for polling is), why Trump’s voters showed up and declined to vote Republican, what Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles means for the next two years, and a personal account of Miami’s loss at Notre Dame.

Timeline:

00:00 The first post-election show, and the five best-run campaigns of the cycle
08:00 Ayotte, Colom, Andrews, Ossoff — and why Talarico didn’t make the list
14:00 Five worst campaigns: redistricting, Paxton, and Vivek Ramaswamy
20:00 Marshall, Platner, and whether any Democrat actually blew it
25:00 Overrated ideas: vouchers, third parties, and super PAC money
30:00 Polling isn’t broken, and the Roberts court as a turnout machine
36:00 Voter ID everywhere, a red undertow, and the Schumer question
44:00 Media winners and losers, and Silicon Valley’s failed bet
50:00 Why the Miller pick is catastrophic, and the Sun Belt’s takeover
56:00 South Bend: the call, Catholics versus Convicts, and the ghosts of 1988
1:04:00 Notre Dame deserved it, a tribute to a friend’s mother, and 100,000 subs

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

British historian Joel Nelson — a former Kennedy Scholar and Foreign Affairs editor — joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss Kennedy’s Only Hero, out this month, which argues JFK’s obsession with Winston Churchill shaped everything from his worldview to his speeches to his daily habits. Kennedy discovered Churchill’s books as a teenager, studied old newsreels to learn how he commanded a room, and used Churchill’s influence to break from his father Joe’s appeasement politics — a rupture that turned tragic when Joe’s deepest fear, losing a son to war, came true in 1944. Nelson traces how Kennedy took a “what would Churchill do” approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and reveals the painful asymmetry at the heart of it: Churchill never grasped how deeply he was admired, and privately worried Kennedy wasn’t ready for the job. 

Timeline:

01:15 Why write this book, and the depth of Kennedy’s obsession

03:30 Joe Kennedy, appeasement, and the break with his father

09:30 The loss of Joe Jr. and what it cost the family

12:00 Reaching out to Churchill from the White House

13:15 “What would Churchill do” and the Cuban Missile Crisis

16:15 Democracies, sacrifice, and preparing a country for the Cold War

19:30 What Kennedy and Churchill would make of this moment

27:00 Losing the generation that lived through the World Wars

33:15 How Kennedy actually prepared to be president

38:30 The admiration ran one way — Churchill’s private doubts

42:15 Fake Churchill quotes and tumultuous British politics

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Trump still isn’t hearing what voters said — he’s essentially telling the customer they’re wrong. The clearest evidence is Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles as chief of staff: Miller was the architect of the immigration backlash that helped produce the tsunami, and if you cared at all about voters’ concerns he’d be the last person you’d hire. Todd warns Wiles was among the final guardrails, that the coming months could be genuinely dangerous, and that Vance and Rubio may be all that’s left. His argument is that only Republicans can rein in a delusional Trump — and if they don’t excise him, the party dies. He sees early signs in Ted Cruz acknowledging the disconnect, and flags DeSantis’s Amendment 3 as a disaster waiting to hit rural Florida counties where local government is the biggest employer. On Democrats: tariffs first, then healthcare, investigations are mandatory, and Schumer should leave leadership on a high note. 

Then, British historian Joel Nelson — a former Kennedy Scholar and Foreign Affairs editor — joins the Chuck ToddCast to discuss Kennedy’s Only Hero, out this month, which argues JFK’s obsession with Winston Churchill shaped everything from his worldview to his speeches to his daily habits. Kennedy discovered Churchill’s books as a teenager, studied old newsreels to learn how he commanded a room, and used Churchill’s influence to break from his father Joe’s appeasement politics — a rupture that turned tragic when Joe’s deepest fear, losing a son to war, came true in 1944. Nelson traces how Kennedy took a “what would Churchill do” approach to the Cuban Missile Crisis, and reveals the painful asymmetry at the heart of it: Churchill never grasped how deeply he was admired, and privately worried Kennedy wasn’t ready for the job. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to retell a story of local government, a beached whale carcass and dynamite. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Timeline: 

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Trump tells voters the customer is wrong

06:45 Every broken promise and the decisions that made it worse

10:30 The 60 Minutes answer on his own wealth

16:00 Why Stephen Miller is the tell

20:30 The architect of the backlash gets promoted

25:30 Wiles was a guardrail — what happens now

31:00 Only Republicans can rein in Trump

36:00 The GOP’s shot at a post-Trump future

42:30 Cruz, Pence, DeSantis and a civil war turning personal

58:30 Hegseth’s impeachment video and the Dana White rumor

1:01:00 Why Amendment 3 will backfire on DeSantis

1:10:00 What Democrats should do first: tariffs, healthcare, investigations

1:15:00 A change election means Schumer can’t stay 

1:23:30 Joel Nelson joins The Chuck ToddCast

1:24:45 Why write this book, and the depth of Kennedy’s obsession

1:27:00 Joe Kennedy, appeasement, and the break with his father

1:33:00 The loss of Joe Jr. and what it cost the family

1:35:30 Reaching out to Churchill from the White House

1:36:45 “What would Churchill do” and the Cuban Missile Crisis

1:39:45 Democracies, sacrifice, and preparing a country for the Cold War

1:43:00 What Kennedy and Churchill would make of this moment

1:50:30 Losing the generation that lived through the World Wars

1:56:45 How Kennedy actually prepared to be president

2:02:00 The admiration ran one way — Churchill’s private doubts

2:05:45 Fake Churchill quotes and tumultuous British politics

2:14:00 A couple of Substack recommendations

2:17:30 ToddCast Time Machine

2:18:00 A beached whale in Oregon was blown up with dynamite

2:19:30 Local government thought blowing whale up was best solution

2:22:45 Explosion sent huge chunks of blubber everywhere

2:25:30 This story was internet gold before internet gold existed

2:26:15 Event was memorialized by naming a park

2:27:00 Ask Chuck

2:27:30 Will Trump be there to pass off power on inauguration day?

2:29:30 What’s happening with disputed Missouri election map?

2:31:30 Issues with majority support that wont stand test of time?

2:34:45 Will diversity of Dems elected cause infighting?

2:38:45 Will the national popular vote compact get enacted?

2:42:00 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Chuck Todd argues Trump still isn’t hearing what voters said — he’s essentially telling the customer they’re wrong. The clearest evidence is Stephen Miller replacing Susie Wiles as chief of staff: Miller was the architect of the immigration backlash that helped produce the tsunami, and if you cared at all about voters’ concerns he’d be the last person you’d hire. Todd warns Wiles was among the final guardrails, that the coming months could be genuinely dangerous, and that Vance and Rubio may be all that’s left. His argument is that only Republicans can rein in a delusional Trump — and if they don’t excise him, the party dies. He sees early signs in Ted Cruz acknowledging the disconnect, and flags DeSantis’s Amendment 3 as a disaster waiting to hit rural Florida counties where local government is the biggest employer. On Democrats: tariffs first, then healthcare, investigations are mandatory, and Schumer should leave leadership on a high note. 

Finally, Chuck hops into the ToddCast Time Machine to retell a story of local government, a beached whale carcass and dynamite. He also answers listeners’ questions in the Ask Chuck segment and recaps the weekend in college football.

Timeline: 

00:00 Chuck Todd’s introduction

04:30 Trump tells voters the customer is wrong

06:45 Every broken promise and the decisions that made it worse

10:30 The 60 Minutes answer on his own wealth

16:00 Why Stephen Miller is the tell

20:30 The architect of the backlash gets promoted

25:30 Wiles was a guardrail — what happens now

31:00 Only Republicans can rein in Trump

36:00 The GOP’s shot at a post-Trump future

42:30 Cruz, Pence, DeSantis and a civil war turning personal

58:30 Hegseth’s impeachment video and the Dana White rumor

1:01:00 Why Amendment 3 will backfire on DeSantis

1:10:00 What Democrats should do first: tariffs, healthcare, investigations

1:15:00 A change election means Schumer can’t stay 

1:22:30 A couple of Substack recommendations

1:26:00 ToddCast Time Machine

1:26:30 A beached whale in Oregon was blown up with dynamite

1:28:00 Local government thought blowing whale up was best solution

1:31:15 Explosion sent huge chunks of blubber everywhere

1:34:00 This story was internet gold before internet gold existed

1:34:45 Event was memorialized by naming a park

1:35:30 Ask Chuck

1:36:00 Will Trump be there to pass off power on inauguration day?

1:38:00 What’s happening with disputed Missouri election map?

1:40:00 Issues with majority support that wont stand test of time?

1:43:15 Will diversity of Dems elected cause infighting?

1:47:15 Will the national popular vote compact get enacted?

1:50:30 College football recap

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.