Chris and Matt are back for Espresso Martini. Nearly a month into Operation Epic Fury, Washington appears to be laying the groundwork for potential ground operations inside Iran—but the two options on the table, seizing Kharg Island or securing Tehran's enriched uranium stockpile, are both far harder to execute than advertised. They dig into what a nuclear material extraction would actually require, and what growing strain on U.S. interceptor stockpiles and carrier availability signals about the campaign's trajectory. Then, a deep dive into the Guardian's reconstruction of how CIA and MI6 accurately predicted Russia's 2022 invasion—and why no one listened—and what that intelligence failure says about the long-term costs of credibility. Finally, the Space Force's pivot toward offensive counter-space as China's satellite constellation surpasses 1,900 orbital assets.

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Articles discussed in today’s episode

"Trump’s Next Decision: Whether to Retrieve Iran’s Nuclear Fuel, Whatever the Risk" by David E. Sanger | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/20/opinion/iran-nuclear-materials-war.html

"I Spent Two Decades Securing Nuclear Materials. Getting at Iran’s Would Not Be Easy." by Andrew Weber | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/17/us/politics/trump-iran-nuclear-fuel.html

"Special Ops To Get The Uranium" by Cheryl Rofer | Lawyers, Guns & Money: https://www.lawyersgunsmoneyblog.com/2026/03/special-ops-to-get-the-uranium

"What Boots On The Ground In Iran Could Entail, According To Former CENTCOM Commander" by Howard Altman | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/news-features/former-centcom-commander-on-what-u-s-boots-on-the-ground-in-iran-could-entail

"A war foretold: How the CIA and MI6 got hold of Putin’s Ukraine plans and why nobody believed them" by Shaun Walker | The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2026/feb/20/a-war-foretold-cia-mi6-putin-ukraine-plans-russia

"China’s Growing Armada Of Spy Satellites Is Pushing Space Force To Go On The Offensive" by Joseph Trevithick & Howard Altman | The War Zone: https://www.twz.com/space/chinas-growing-armada-of-spy-satellites-is-pushing-space-force-to-go-on-the-offensive

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Secrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/
Music by Andrew R. Bird
US Army Photo by Sgt. 1st Class Daniel Wallace

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

Hi everyone, I hope you are well. There will be no show this weekend as we need to take a breather. Our next show will be Saturday 28th March 

If you haven’t caught up with our latest episode, please check out our interview with Trevor Barnes about the Bulgarian Spy Ring trial via the links below: 

Audio: https://pod.fo/e/3afd42
YouTube: https://youtu.be/VWODfRZZA2o

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See you next week. 

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Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Getty, Metropolitan Police/AP

Special Thank you to Mark Vaile

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

Chris speaks with intelligence historian and journalist Trevor Barnes about the Bulgarian spy ring trial at the Old Bailey, one of the most significant espionage cases in the UK since the Cold War. Barnes attended the proceedings and walks Chris through how a network of Bulgarian nationals, allegedly directed remotely by fugitive Wirecard executive Jan Marsalek from Moscow, was tasked with surveilling journalists and dissidents across Europe — including Bellingcat investigator Christo Grozev — in operations that prosecutors suggested could have enabled kidnapping or assassination. The case cracked open after a US intelligence tip-off, was jointly handled by MI5 and the Met's Counter Terrorism Command, and ultimately turned on roughly 200,000 encrypted Telegram messages. Barnes unpacks what the trial revealed about Russia's growing reliance on proxy networks and criminal cut-outs in place of traditional deep-cover officers, and what it signals for Western counter-intelligence in an era of mounting state-sponsored threats.

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Read Trevor’s article about the trial: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/trevorwbarnes_britain-russia-bulgarian-activity-7440003523754459136-Pscm

Connect with Trevor on LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/trevorwbarnes/

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Secrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Getty, Metropolitan Police/AP

Special Thank you to Mark Vaile

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

David Shedd served as acting director of the Defense Intelligence Agency; Andrew Badger is a former DIA case officer now teaching state-sponsored espionage at Oxford. Together they've written The Great Heist: China's Epic Campaign to Steal America's Secrets. Matt talks with them about how the Ministry of State Security evolved from a backwater service into what they argue is the world's most powerful intelligence agency; how Beijing replaced Cold War recruitment tradecraft with guanxi-based social obligation and what the authors call "crowd-sourced espionage"; how Made in China 2025 functioned as a national collection priority list driving theft across defense, tech, and critical infrastructure; and why Volt and Salt Typhoon represent not an espionage story but pre-positioning for war—with kill switches already embedded in America's power grid and telecommunications backbone.

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Order The Great Heist: https://www.harpercollins.com/products/the-great-heist-david-r-sheddandrew-badger

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https://www.linkedin.com/in/david-shedd-00a32bb5
https://www.linkedin.com/in/andrewbadger1

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Secrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Shutterstock

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

Israel has killed Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The IRGC's senior leadership is decimated. The CIA is reportedly arming Kurdish opposition forces along the Iran-Iraq border. Phillip Smyth — one of the foremost experts on Iran's Shia proxy networks — joins Matt to make sense of what comes next: why Khamenei's succession is far more fraught than most analysis acknowledges; why the proliferation of "new" armed groups on the battlefield is largely a disinformation campaign run by established militias; the limits of a Kurdish covert action strategy; why a regime that survives under Khamenei’s son would look essentially identical to the one the Israelis just tried to destroy; and Smyth's warning about the apocalyptic messianic splinter groups that could emerge from the rubble of a collapsing theocracy.

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Follow Phillip on X/Twitter: https://x.com/PhillipSmyth
Connect with Phillip on LinkedIn: https://linkedin.com/in/phillipsmyth

Phllip’s work for The Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/phillip-smyth

Phillip’s work for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/authors/phillip-smyth/

Phllip’s work for The Washington Institute: https://www.washingtoninstitute.org/experts/phillip-smyth

Phillip’s work for the Combating Terrorism Center at West Point: https://ctc.westpoint.edu/authors/phillip-smyth/

“Inside the Operation That Killed Khamenei” by Anat Peled, Milàn Czerny, Dov Lieber & Anika Arora Seth | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/inside-the-operation-that-killed-khamenei-03eebbad

"How the Assault on Iran Unfolded" by David M. Halbfinger and Ronen Bergman | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/01/world/middleeast/iran-israel-strikes.html

"Trump Weighs Backing Militias to Dislodge Iran’s Regime" by Alexander War & Vera Bergenruen | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/world/middle-east/iran-leadership-succession-b5c4118e

"Pro-American Kurdish Forces Are Preparing Possible Iran Incursion" by Erika Solomon, Julian E. Barnes, Christiaan Triebert, Parin Behrooz & Farnaz Fassihi | The New York Times: https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/04/us/politics/kurds-trump-iran-war.html

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Secrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Atta Kenare/AFP

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

In this conversation, Lizzie Dearden, a journalist specializing in terrorism reporting, shares her journey into the field, the writing of her book Plotters, and insights into the evolving landscape of terrorism in the UK. She discusses the emotional atmosphere of terrorism trials, the shift in threats post-2017, and the complexities of radicalization. Dearden highlights the challenges of public perception, the role of intelligence agencies, and the significance of case studies like Haroon Syed's. The conversation also touches on the impact of AI on radicalization and the future of terrorism.

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Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Guy Corbishley/Alamy

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

Benjamin Wittes, editor-in-chief of Lawfare, joins Matt and Chris after spending two weeks traveling across Ukraine—from Kyiv to Kharkiv and Odesa—as the war enters its fourth year. What he describes is sobering. Cities that appear functional on the surface are living through freezing temperatures, rolling blackouts, nightly missile strikes, and the constant threat of drone attacks. Families endure shattered infrastructure and relentless uncertainty, while society strains to maintain some semblance of normal life. Ben reflects on the exhaustion and resilience of the Ukrainian people, the rapidly evolving drone war reshaping modern combat, and why Western audiences often misunderstand the reality on the ground. The conversation also examines Zelensky’s standing at home, skepticism around current peace efforts, and why Ukraine’s fight remains central to Europe’s future security.

This is an unfiltered look at a nation still holding the line.

Ben's "Project Batteries" has raised over $79,000 to put portable power stations in the hands of Ukrainians enduring the depths of winter without heat, water, or electricity amid Russian bombardment. If you'd like to help keep that number climbing, find his latest updates with Venmo/PayPal links below.

https://www.dogshirtdaily.com/p/de-iceing-in-krakow

Ben’s work with Lawfare: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/
Ben’s Substack, Dog Shirt Daily: https://www.dogshirtdaily.com/
Follow Ben on Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/benjaminwittes.lawfaremedia.org

Ukrainian Aid Charities

https://dignitas.fund/
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https://savelife.in.ua/en/

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Secrets and Spies is produced by Films & Podcasts LTD: https://filmsandpodcasts.co.uk/
Music by Andrew R. Bird

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

In this episode, Chris speaks with German investigative journalist Manuel Bewarder about the Jan Marsalek spy network and the landmark UK trial that exposed it. They unpack how the former Wirecard executive allegedly directed a Bulgarian spy ring from Moscow, targeting journalists, dissidents, and even U.S. military facilities in Germany. Drawing on thousands of Telegram messages revealed in court, Manuel explains how the network operated, how close it came to violence, and what the case reveals about modern Russian espionage—from freelance-style proxy networks to sabotage plots and battlefield intelligence collection. They also explore ongoing investigations in Austria and Germany, and what Marsalek’s continued presence in Russia tells us about his ties to the Kremlin. 

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Find more about Manuel and his reporting on his website: https://manuelbewarder.com/

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Secrets and Spies is produced by F & P LTD.
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Nibor/Zuma Press

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

This week on Espresso Martini, Chris and Matt examine a set of stories pointing to a more volatile intelligence and political landscape. They unpack Poland’s investigation into whether Jeffrey Epstein functioned as a long-running collector of kompromat tied to Russian interests, and what the available evidence does — and does not — tell us about his relationship with Moscow. In Germany, the expulsion of a Russian military attaché and the arrest of an alleged spy accused of mapping defense and drone infrastructure highlight Berlin’s shift toward treating Russian intelligence activity as operational preparation for sabotage on NATO soil. The episode also explores mounting concerns around DNI Tulsi Gabbard, from the delayed handling of a highly sensitive whistleblower complaint to her unusual involvement in election-related investigations, raising questions about politicization and oversight. Chris and Matt then turn to Donald Trump’s Greenland brinkmanship, the role NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte played in defusing an alliance crisis, and why attempts to “sanewash” the episode risk lasting damage to transatlantic trust, before closing on the quiet but symbolic shuttering of the CIA’s World Factbook.

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Articles discussed in today’s episode

"Jeffrey Epstein investigated for being a Russian spy" by David Charter | The Times: https://www.thetimes.com/world/europe/article/jeffrey-epstein-investigated-for-being-a-russian-spy-tpcplhvxp

"The Cesspool and Chaos: the Russian Connection in the Epstein Affair" by Françoise Thom | Russian Desk: https://desk-russie.info/2025/07/30/the-cesspool-and-chaos-the-russian-connection-in-the-epstein-affair.html

"Jeffrey Epstein’s Russian Connection: Billionaire's ties with FSB Academy graduate revealed" | Dossier Center: https://dossier.center/jeffreyepsteinrusconnect-en/

"Germany expels Russian diplomat over spying case" by Richard Connor | Deutsche Welle: https://www.dw.com/en/germany-expels-russian-diplomat-summons-ambassador-over-espionage-case/a-75609339

"Germany Arrests Five in Major Scheme to Smuggle Sanctioned Goods to Russia" by Dariia Mykhailenko | United24 Media: https://united24media.com/latest-news/germany-arrests-five-in-major-scheme-to-smuggle-sanctioned-goods-to-russia-15554

"Classified Whistleblower Complaint About Tulsi Gabbard Stalls Within Her Agency” by Dustin Volz and C. Ryan Barber | The Wall Street Journal: https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/classified-whistleblower-complaint-about-tulsi-gabbard-stalls-within-her-agency-027f5331

"Intelligence watchdog shares whistleblower complaint involving Gabbard with Congress after monthslong delay" by Olivia Gazis, Michael Kaplan | CBS News: https://www.cbsnews.com/news/intelligence-watchdog-sensitive-whistleblower-complaint-congress-monthslong-delay/

"Tulsi Gabbard running solo 2020 election inquiry separate from FBI investigation" by Hugo Lowell | The Guardian: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2026/feb/03/tulsi-gabbard-2020-election-investigation-ed

"Behind Trump's Greenland reversal, the crucial role of NATO chief Mark Rutte" by Anne-Françoise Hivert, Philippe Jacqué & Philippe Ricard | Le Monde: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/international/article/2026/01/22/behind-trump-s-greenland-reversal-the-crucial-role-of-nato-chief-mark-rutte_6749681_4.html

"What follows President Trump’s decision to step back from threatening to use force in Greenland?" by Elaine Kamarck | The Brookings Institution: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/what-follows-president-trump-decision-to-step-back-from-threatening-to-use-force-in-greenland/

"Spotlighting The World Factbook as We Bid a Fond Farewell" | Central Intelligence Agency: https://www.cia.gov/stories/story/spotlighting-the-world-factbook-as-we-bid-a-fond-farewell/

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Secrets and Spies is produced by F & P LTD.
Music by Andrew R. Bird

Investigative journalist Florian Flade returns to discuss Russia's Harmony Undersea Surveillance System, a project aimed at protecting its nuclear submarine fleet. Florian and Chris cover the international collaboration involved in Florian’s investigation, the strategic importance of the Harmony system, and the challenges of reporting on sensitive military topics. Florian also highlights the broader implications of Russia's military activities in the Arctic and the ongoing efforts to counteract Russian procurement networks for Western technology.

Subscribe and share to stay ahead in the world of intelligence, global issues, and current affairs.

Follow Florian’s blog and connect on social media

Bluesky: https://bsky.app/profile/florianflade.bsky.social
X: https://x.com/FlorianFlade
Blog: https://ojihad.wordpress.com/

Florian’s reporting discussed in the episode

https://www.tagesschau.de/investigativ/ndr-wdr/russland-harmonie-unterwasser-spaehsystem-atomwaffen-100.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2025/10/23/russia-nuclear-subs-western-technology-surevillance/ 
https://www.icij.org/investigations/russia-archive/russia-secretly-acquired-western-technology-to-protect-its-nuclear-submarine-fleet/ 

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Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.

In this comprehensive discussion, Sam Lichtenstein from RANE (Risk Assistance Network & Exchange) joins Chris to dissect their annual geopolitical and security forecast. Sam provides insights into the geopolitical landscape for 2026, highlighting the challenges of predicting human behavior, the rise of violent conflicts, and the implications of AI and cybersecurity threats. They cover regional dynamics in Sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East, Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the Americas, emphasizing the interconnectedness of these issues and the potential for political violence in the US. Sam also discusses the breakdown of the unipolar order and its impact on global security.

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Secrets and Spies is produced by F & P LTD.
Music by Andrew R. Bird
Photo by Harun Ozalp/Getty

Secrets and Spies sits at the intersection of intelligence, covert action, real-world espionage, and broader geopolitics in a way that is digestible but serious. Hosted by filmmaker Chris Carr and writer Matt Fulton, each episode examines the very topics that real intelligence officers and analysts consider on a daily basis through the lens of global events and geopolitics, featuring expert insights from former spies, authors, and journalists.