Threading The Needle

Common Thread Collective

CTC IS A DIGITAL SALES AGENCY

  • 35 minutes 51 seconds
    The Marketing Calendar Is Your Real Revenue Model

    In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the uncomfortable truth most brands ignore: your marketing calendar not your spreadsheet—is the real driver of revenue. We walk through why forecasts consistently miss, how spending power actually shifts month to month, and the system top DTC brands use to tie marketing actions directly to revenue outcomes.

    You’ll learn how to:

    • Build forecasts rooted in real marketing behavior

    • Use spending power and event effect models to predict revenue accurately

    • Diagnose why actuals diverge from plan (and what actions to take next)

    • Align finance and marketing so both teams finally speak the same language

    If you want predictable revenue, tighter forecasts, and a clearer view of how marketing really moves the business, this episode is your blueprint.

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    11 December 2025, 6:39 pm
  • 31 minutes 13 seconds
    The 2026 7-Figure Brand Playbook (Stop Copying 9-Figure Advice)

    In this episode, Taylor and Joy break down the real 2026 playbook for 7-figure ecommerce brands, and why copying 9-figure operators is one of the biggest mistakes you can make.

    Coming off BFCM, they unpack what actually happened for small brands and what it signals heading into the new year.

    You’ll learn:

    • How to create “four peaks a month” using trends, cultural moments, and audience overlaps

    • Why forecasting is an execution system not a prediction tool

    • How aMER becomes your most reliable metric at the 7-figure stage

    • The traps that stall growth (SKU bloat, premature channel expansion, bad benchmarks)

    • What separates the 7-figure brands that scale from the ones that don’t

    If you’re aiming to reach 8 figures in 2026, this episode outlines the roadmap.

    Plus: How CTC’s Profit System and Global Accelerator help founders build predictable, scalable growth.

    Show Notes:

    9 December 2025, 5:36 pm
  • 35 minutes 1 second
    From Campaigns to Cash Flow: How to Build a Forecast That Works

    How do high-performing ecommerce brands turn campaigns into predictable cash flow?

    In this episode, we break down the exact forecasting process we use at Common Thread Collective to consistently land within 0–10% of goal across dozens of brands.

    Growth Strategy Manager Brian Sakansky joins Richard to unpack how CTC builds forecasts, operationalizes them, and uses daily expectations to make real-time decisions that drive revenue and contribution margin.

    You’ll learn:

    • Why most forecasts fail—and how to fix yours

    • How CTC turns marketing calendars into financial plans

    • The daily system our team uses to hit targets with confidence

    • How to identify the “real” problem in your data (AOV, CAC, CVR, etc.)

    • The contingency planning that keeps brands on track when things go sideways

    •  How smaller operators can build this same process with nothing more than a spreadsheet

    If you want forecasting to be more than a spreadsheet…

    If you want it to actually guide your decisions…

    And if you want to turn campaigns into reliable cash flow…

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    4 December 2025, 6:26 pm
  • 26 minutes 6 seconds
    BFCM 2025 Results: What Really Happened This Weekend

    In this episode of the Podcast, we break down the real story of BFCM 2025—from forecasting accuracy to media buying chaos, offer pivots, AppLovin’s breakout performance, and what this year’s results say about the broader consumer economy.

    Richard and Taylor walk through:

    • The full BFCM data recap: +7% total revenue, +10% new customers, +13% contribution margin

    • Why Saturday became the surprise winner of the weekend

    • AppLovin outperforming expectations by 100%+

    • Meta delivery volatility, and why it’s part of the game

    • Tactical offer changes that saved entire BFCM weekends

    • The rise of BNPL and concerning consumer financial behavior

    • What this all means for 2026 planning

    If you’re preparing for the year ahead, this episode breaks down the numbers, the lessons, and the trends shaping how brands should think about forecasting, spending, and customer acquisition going into 2026.

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    3 December 2025, 7:34 pm
  • 28 minutes 41 seconds
    5 Last-Minute BFCM Fixes You STILL Have Time to Make

    Black Friday is three days away but there’s still time to tighten your strategy and avoid costly mistakes. In this episode of the podcast, the CTC team breaks down the 5 essential last-minute BFCM fixes every brand needs before the biggest weekend of the year.

    Whether you're behind on creative, unsure about spend pacing, or just want to sanity-check your plan…this is the checklist that will save your BFCM.

    What we cover:

    • Locking spend to aMER targets

    • Auditing & refreshing creative without producing anything new

    • Simplifying your offer across the entire customer journey

    • Operational readiness (don’t ruin a good sale!)

    • Hour-by-hour tracking & how to take action quickly

    If you want a clean, no-nonsense guide to surviving Black Friday/Cyber Monday (and setting yourself up for your best one yet), this is the episode.

    Show Notes:

    25 November 2025, 3:52 pm
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    CFO Summit: Board, Budget, Bonus - The Forecasting Framework for 2026

    In our first CFO Summit Taylor breaks down the Board, Budget, Bonus forecasting framework—CTC’s core system for building a clear, defensible, and aligned financial plan for 2026.This replay walks you through how high-performing ecommerce brands create scenario models that serve their board, their finance team, and their operators… all without losing focus during the busy BFCM season.In this replay, you’ll learn:-The 3 scenario model every CFO should build for 2026-How to anchor your plan in real data not hope or assumptions-Why most ecommerce forecasts break (and how to fix yours)-How new vs. returning customer trends shape next year’s revenue-How to connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial plan-Why forecasting succeeds or fails based on daily executionWhether you’re a founder, CFO, VP of Finance, or operator driving next year’s plan, this replay gives you the structure and clarity to build a forecast your board—and your team—can trust.Show Notes:The CFO Summit series brought to you by:

    • Fulfil: https://bit.ly/3JWVJ0q
    • TaxCloud: https://bit.ly/3LQ1M7u
    • Explore the PROPHIT System: http://prophitsystem.com
    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    20 November 2025, 3:41 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    Meta’s Black Box Is Ruining Your Creative Strategy

    Meta’s new creative ranking systems are changing everything, and most brands have no idea how much it’s affecting their performance. In this episode, we break down exactly how Meta’s Black Box evaluates your ads, why your creatives are being grouped together, and why small variations (like hook swaps) no longer matter the way you think they do.


    Our Guest today is Reza Khadjavi, CEO at Motion, the creative reporting platform trusted by top DTC brands.


    What you’ll learn:

    • Why Meta sees one ad even when you upload ten

    • How Andromeda assigns “priors” to your creative

    • Why hook testing isn’t moving the needle anymore

    • How AI labeling is changing creative analysis

    • What creative diversity actually means to Meta

    • The end of growth hacking (and what comes next)

    • How to build a creative strategy that still works in a black box world

    If your ads feel stuck, inconsistent, or unpredictable… This episode will explain why.

    Show Notes:

    18 November 2025, 4:53 pm
  • 25 minutes 40 seconds
    How to Set Meta ROAS Targets Before Black Friday

    How do you set the right ROAS target on Meta heading into Black Friday and Cyber Monday?

    Most brands either guess… or use last month’s numbers and hope they hold.

    But BFCM behaves nothing like a normal period and the attribution windows prove it.

    In this episode, Tony and Steve walk through the real data behind Meta’s 7-day vs. 28-day click attribution, why value shifts dramatically in the weeks leading up to Black Friday, and how that should change your spend strategy right now.

    You’ll learn:

    • How much value Meta under-reports in the 7-day window

    • Why pre-BFCM ad spend has a longer conversion tail

    • How to push your ROAS target lower without tanking efficiency

    • How incrementality testing plays into your spend ceiling

    • Why daily spending power spikes in early November—and how to use it

    • How to analyze YOUR 7-day vs 28-day attribution before BFCM

    Show Notes:

    13 November 2025, 3:43 pm
  • 36 minutes 27 seconds
    2026 Forecast Planning: Board vs Budget vs Bonus Explained

    Most ecommerce brands build one forecast — and that’s why most forecasts are wrong.

    In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down the 3-forecast model that every high-performing brand should use when planning for 2026: Board. Budget. Bonus.

    You’ll learn:

    • Why every brand needs three forecasts, not one

    • How to balance short-term execution (Black Friday) with long-term planning (2026)

    • How to model different outcomes for your board, your operating budget, and your team goals

    • How to use tools like percentage-over-model and event effect modeling to make forecasts actually useful

    If you’re leading growth, finance, or operations at a 7 to 9 figure brand, this episode will help you plan smarter, forecast with confidence, and build a roadmap that aligns your team from boardroom to bonus.

    Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    11 November 2025, 5:07 pm
  • 23 minutes 21 seconds
    Why Your 2026 Financial Plan Needs 3 Scenarios (Not 1)

    Most brands are building their 2026 plan all wrong.

    In this episode, Taylor breaks down why you can’t walk into the new year with one financial forecast — and why the smartest brands plan three: Board, Budget, and Bonus.

    You’ll learn how to:

    • Build scenario plans that align finance and marketing

    • Forecast existing and new customer revenue with confidence

    • Connect your marketing calendar directly to your financial goals

    • Present a plan your board, your bank, and your team will actually believe in

    Whether you’re a CMO, CEO, or founder planning for growth in 2026, this is your playbook for making smarter decisions before the year even starts.


    Get your 2026 forecast built with CTC’s Prophit System: https://commonthreadco.com/pages/prophit-system


    Bonus Offer (through Nov 11): Sign up now and get our Black Friday Cyber Monday Hourly Tracking Report — free.

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    6 November 2025, 4:10 pm
  • 31 minutes 55 seconds
    How to Optimize Ad Spend in Real Time During Black Friday

    Black Friday isn’t won by guessing, it’s won hour by hour.

    In this episode of the Podcast, Richard and Luke break down how top DTC brands use real-time ad spend optimization to hit — and even exceed — their Black Friday and Cyber Monday targets.

    You’ll learn how hourly tracking transforms decision making during the biggest shopping weekend of the year, plus:

    • How to spot pacing issues before it’s too late

    • When to scale ad spend versus pull back in real time

    • What hourly data reveals about buyer behavior on BFCM

    • Why last year’s patterns are your best forecasting tool for this year

    Limited offer: Get a free Black Friday Hourly Tracking Report when you purchase a Prophit System, your full-year spend and forecasting model built by Common Thread Collective.

    Show Notes:

    • The Ecommerce Playbook mailbag is open — email us at [email protected] to ask us any questions you might have
    4 November 2025, 1:54 pm
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