If the rules-based order is broken, what comes next? And who will lead it? Mark Leonard argues in his new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, that the coming system will be “un-order,” governed not by China or the United States but by no one at all. Are states responding quickly enough? Leonard, who is the director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, joins FP Live’s Ravi Agrawal to explore how policymakers should adjust.

Hal Brands: Three Scenarios for a Post-Trump World

Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening

James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses

Michael Hirsch: After the Nation-State

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U.S. President Donald Trump arrived in Beijing for his meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping to great fanfare but left with little to show for it. What does the Trump-Xi summit reveal about the balance of power between the world’s two biggest economies? Rana Mitter, a top historian of China, joins FP Live to discuss where the world’s most important relationship is headed.

Plus, Ravi shares his read on why the Iran war may be Trump’s greatest failure. 

Ravi Agrawal: Iran Could Be Trump’s Greatest Failure

James Palmer: The Trump-Xi Summit Was Remarkably Banal

Fareed Zakaria: Trump’s China Pragmatism Is Welcome

Stephen M. Walt: Chinese Hegemony Might Be Happening

James Palmer: China Doesn’t Always Win When the U.S. Loses

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There’s little doubt that the conflict in Iran has hurt much of the world economy. But not Russia. Data suggests that the Kremlin has already made billions of dollars in additional oil revenue since the United States and Israel attacked Iran. But beyond just cash, how much will this change President Vladimir Putin’s broader strategy? And what does this mean for the fate of the war in Ukraine? Alexander Gabuev, the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, joins FP Live to explain how Russia is navigating a moment of particular global flux.

Plus, Ravi offers his read on U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to Beijing.

Christian Caryl: Vladimir Putin Is Much Weaker Than You Think

Sean Wiswesser: Don’t Fall for Rumors of Putin’s Weakness

Keith Johnson: Russia Is Making Bank on Trump’s Iran War

Christian Caryl: How Ukraine Benefited From Trump’s Iran War

Alexey Kovalev: Russia’s War Boom Masks an Economic Implosion

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While the conflict in Iran has dominated headlines in the last two months, accounts of ordinary life in the Islamic Republic are scarce. According to journalist Ali Hashem, who spent six weeks in Tehran and has visited several times in the last decade, life in the capital looks more normal than one might imagine. Shops and restaurants are largely open, and regular people seem to be rallying around the flag in the face of an external threat. And while the internet as we know it is shut down, an intranet of sorts—with access to local versions of Netflix, Uber, and WhatsApp—is allowing people a semblance of regular life. Hashem speaks with host Ravi Agrawal about his reporting from Iran. 

Ali Hashem: Iran Is More Unified Than Ever

Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War

Ali Hashem: Waiting for the War to End in Tehran

Ali Hashem: Iran Is Becoming America’s Ukraine

Ali Hashem: Iran Is Built to Withstand the Ayatollah’s Assassination

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It’s time for another ask-me-anything edition of FP Live. This one takes on the war in Iran from many angles: the economic impact, regional balance of power, the longer-term global impact, and much else. Producer Dana Sherne puts audience questions to FP’s editor in chief Ravi Agrawal.

Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War

Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran

Stephen M. Walt: The End of America’s Soft Power

Amir Handjani: The Real Meaning of the UAE’s OPEC Exit

Aaron David Miller and Daniel C. Kurtzer: Why Trump Might Come to Regret the Iran War

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The extension of a fragile cease-fire in the Middle East has left the region with no clear path forward. The Strait of Hormuz is still blocked, which means the global energy crisis will get worse. But Tehran’s new leaders are suffering too. What is their plan? Iran expert Karim Sadjadpour joins FP Live to discuss the shifting state of the war.

Plus, Ravi shares his read on how the war’s economic fallout is worst in Asia.

Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War

David Ignatius: Both Sides Want a Deal. Both Keep Acting As if They Don’t.

Menahem Merhavy: The Man Who Represents Post-Clerical Iran

Bobby Ghosh: Tehran Can’t Count on Hormuz

Philip H. Gordon and Rebecca Lissner: The Strategic Aftershocks of Trump’s Iran War

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The closure of the Strait of Hormuz is like a ticking time bomb for the global economy, disrupting the flow of energy and rippling through industries from agriculture to semiconductors. How bad could it get? The International Monetary Fund has cut its forecast for global growth this year from 3.4 percent to 3.1 percent in the best-case scenario and 2 percent in the worst case. What countries will be the most affected, and what can they do to protect themselves? Gita Gopinath, an economics professor at Harvard University who was formerly the first deputy managing director of the IMF, joins FP Live to discuss.

IMF’s World Economic Outlook: Global Economy in the Shadow of War

Ravi Agrawal: The World Is Paying the Price for America’s War

Keith Johnson: Why Iran Isn’t Blinking Yet

Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks

Esfandyar Batmanghelidj: The Iran War Is Jeopardizing the Entire Global Economy

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The Iran war has become the most serious foreign-policy challenge for U.S. President Donald Trump in his second term. But does it reveal a larger point about U.S. power? Stephen M. Walt, a professor at Harvard University and Foreign Policy columnist, argues that it does and that the United States is increasingly acting like a rogue state. What damage will this cause, and what can countries do about it?

Plus, Ravi offers his read on Hungary’s election and why it matters for the world.

Thomas Carothers: Why Viktor Orban’s Fidesz Party Lost

Stephen M. Walt: The United States Has Become a Rogue State

Foreign Affairs: Stephen M. Walt: The Predatory Hegemon

Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Ushering In a More Transactional World

Howard W. French: Trump’s Recipe for Accelerated U.S. Decline

Pew Research Center: International Views of China Turn Slightly More Positive

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The Trump administration’s plans in the Middle East are often criticized by those who say he shouldn’t have attacked Iran. But the White House is also facing flak from those who say that it didn’t go far enough. John Bolton is a longtime proponent of regime change in Iran. He served as national security advisor in the first Trump administration before falling out with the president. Bolton joined FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a debate.

Plus, Ravi gives his read on the tenuous Middle East cease-fire. 

Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran

New York Times: John Bolton: Finish the Job: How Trump Can Still Win in Iran

Ali Hashem: The Iran Cease-Fire Has Only Divided the War

Raphael S. Cohen: Trump’s Iran War Is a Dilemma, Not a Debacle

Eric Brewer: Preventing an Iranian Bomb Is Only Getting Harder

Stephen Walt: America’s Pro-War Elites Must Be Held Accountable

Rishi Iyengar: Trump’s Pivot to Pakistan

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After news of a 14-day cease-fire in the middle east conflict, Ravi shares his initial thoughts and analysis.

Plus, the rationale for attacking Iran revolved around security. How did the global narrative become about energy? Iran’s strongest weapon has turned out to be its ability to strangle the Strait of Hormuz, an important trade choke point. What does the return of energy as a weapon mean for the global economy? 

Meghan O’Sullivan, author of Windfall: How the New Energy Abundance Upends Global Politics and Strengthens America’s Power, explains how countries need to think about their energy security. She is a professor at Harvard University and has previously served as deputy national security advisor for Iraq and Afghanistan in the George W. Bush administration. 

Ravi Agrawal: Why Trump Mishandled Iran

New York Times: How Trump Took the U.S. to War With Iran

Amir Handjani: The War Will End With a Hormuz Toll Booth

Nils Gilman: Electrostates vs. Petrostates

Jason Bordoff and Spencer Dale: Making the U.S. More Resilient to Oil Price Shocks

Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Return of the Energy Weapon

Foreign Affairs: Jason Bordoff and Meghan L. O’Sullivan: The Iran Shock And the Dangerous Allure of Energy Autarky

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As the U.S.-Israel war against Iran enters a second month of conflict, how is Tehran’s surviving leadership thinking about an endgame? And how will the conflict reshape geopolitics in the region?

Ali Vaez has extensive contacts with Iranian lawmakers and sits down with Ravi Agrawal to discuss the regime’s options. Vaez is a project director at the International Crisis Group.

Plus, Ravi’s Read on how the White House seems to be winning the battle but losing the war. 

Ravi Agrawal: Trump Is Losing the War in Iran

Robert A. Pape and Ali Vaez: The Iran War Has Escaped Its Authors

Zakiyeh Yazdanshenas: What Iran Wants From the War

Thomas Juneau: Get Ready for a Weaker but Nastier Iran

Menahem Merhavy: Iran’s Civilizational Rhetoric Is Hollow

Arash Reisinezhad: Iran’s Biggest Wartime Advantage is Geography

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