Today let’s talk about prediction markets, which continue to insert themselves into the news cycle and the news in increasingly weird, unsettling, and potentially illegal ways. 

My guest today is Liz Lopatto, a senior reporter at The Verge who owns what we cheerfully call the chaos beat. Liz has been writing a lot about prediction markets lately and especially why they all seem so intent on being perceived as sources of news — a position which directly incentivizes insider trading. That in turn creates a long list of very predictable problems.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links:

• Prediction markets want to eat the news | The Verge
• How anonymous bettors cashed In on the Iran strike | NYT
• With Iran, Kalshi & Polymarket Bet on the Depravity Economy | 404 Media
• Polymarket pulls bet on nuclear detonation in 2026 | 404 Media
• Polymarket defends betting on war as ‘invaluable’ | The Verge
• Someone made a ton of money betting on Maduro’s capture | The Verge
• Are prediction markets gambling? Robinhood CEO bets no | Decoder
• Prediction markets roll out war bets beyond Washington’s reach | Bloomberg
• Polymarket partners with Substack for some reason  | The Verge
• It’s MAGA v Broligarch in the battle over prediction markets | The Verge

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

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Today, I’m talking with Zillow CEO Jeremy Wacksman. Zillow is one of those apps that really exemplifies what you might call the smartphone era of software: the company built a great mobile app for looking at real estate listings, and it turned into not just entertainment for so many of us, but what has become a vertically-integrated platform for buying, selling, and renting real estate.

Jeremy’s argument is that the future of Zillow looks a lot like an end-to-end business platform for real estate agents, and we spent a lot of time talking about whether a business as local and as relationship driven as real estate can benefit from platform-level scale in the way he’s proposing.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

• Zillow’s new AI staging feature is impressively unimpressive | The Verge
• Zillow’s upgraded AI search will show you more homes you can’t afford | The Verge
• Zillow adds DMs so you can chat about homes you’ll never buy | The Verge
• FTC accuses Zillow of paying $100 million to ‘dismantle’ Redfin | The Verge
• Housing is frozen. Wacksman knows you’re still scrolling | NYT
• Wacksman on the US housing market | Bloomberg Talks

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt. This was edited by Xander Adams. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

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Today, we’re talking about the future of Xbox. Phil Spencer, a two-time Decoder guest who’s led Xbox for more than a decade, is stepping down. But in a shocking twist, his deputy long-assumed successor Sarah Bond is also out too, and the Xbox division is now in the hands of an Asha Sharma, one of Microsoft’s AI executives with no prior game industry experience.

There is no better person to talk to about all of this than Tom Warren, senior editor here at The Verge and author of the excellent Notepad newsletter. Tom is actually on parental leave right now, but Microsoft has a longstanding habit of disrupting his well-earned time off. So, Tom was gracious enough to come on the show after publishing a major scoop about what went down at Xbox this past week.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links:

• Inside Microsoft’s big Xbox leadership shake-up | The Verge
• Billions of dollars later and still nobody knows what an Xbox is | The Verge
• Xbox chief Phil Spencer is leaving Microsoft | The Verge
• Read Xbox chief Phil Spencer’s memo about leaving Microsoft | The Verge
• Here’s what Xbox is working on for 2026 | The Verge
• AMD hints Microsoft could launch its next-gen Xbox in 2027 | The Verge
• The next Xbox is going to be very different | The Verge
• Xbox co-founder believes it’s being ‘sunsetted’ in favor of AI | VGC
  

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, I’m talking with Hank Green, a longtime friend of Decoder and the co-founder and now former owner of Complexly, an online education company he started with his brother John in 2012. I say former owner because Hank and John have just converted Complexly into a nonprofit and given up their ownership of the company in the process.

That’s some of the purest Decoder bait that ever was, because it’s all about how you structure a company and how you make decisions about changing that structure. So of course I had to bring Hank back on to talk all about it.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

• Greens’ studio becomes nonprofit as they aim to make ‘trustworthy content’ | AP
• Hank Green makes Nilay Patel explain why websites have a future | Decoder (2024)
• Why Hank Green can’t quit YouTube for TikTok | Decoder (2022)
• Hank Green and Sam Reich on running content companies | Decoder
• Hank Green and Sal Khan on AI in educational video | Decoder
  

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today we're talking about the war for AI talent. Right now, the hottest job market on the planet is for AI researchers. And the vast majority of these people are concentrated into a small number of hugely valuable, extremely fast-growing companies in the San Francisco Bay Area, most of which are now paying some of the highest salaries in the history of tech to poach from one another.

We’ve been dying to really dig in and try to unpack what's going on with all these talent moves in AI. So we brought on Verge senior AI reporter Hayden Field, who's been covering the revolving door of the AI industry really closely and also the broader culture that's motivating workers to jump ship. 

Links:

• What’s behind the mass exodus at xAI? | The Verge
• OpenClaw founder Peter Steinberger is joining OpenAI | The Verge
• Two more xAI co-founders leave after the SpaceX merger | The Verge
• AI safety leader says 'world is in peril' and quits to study poetry | BBC
• OpenAI is making the mistakes Facebook made. I quit. | NYT
• Anthropic’s chief on AI: ‘We don’t know if the models are conscious’ | NYT
• Meet the one woman Anthropic trusts to teach AI morals | WSJ
• OpenAI plans fourth-quarter IPO in race to beat Anthropic to market | WSJ
  

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we're talking about the camera company Ring, lost dogs, and the surveillance state. Since it aired for a massive audience at the Super Bowl, Ring’s Search Party commercial has become a lightning rod for controversy. It’s easy to see how the same technology that can find lost dogs can be used to find people, and then used to invade our privacy in all kinds of uncomfortable ways, by cops and regular people alike.

Although Ring has since canceled its partnership with controversial surveillance company Flock, the company is now facing hard questions about its plans to use AI to promote safer neighborhoods, and how that intersects with its ongoing relationship with law enforcement. 

Links: 

• Ring cancels partnership with Flock after surveillance backlash | The Verge
• Ring’s lost dog ad sparks backlash amid fears of surveillance | The Verge
• Ring says it’s not giving ICE access to its cameras | The Verge
• How police recovered Nancy Guthrie’s Nest Doorbell footage | The Verge
• Ring’s Jamie Siminoff thinks AI can reduce crime | Decoder
• Ring CEO says cameras can almost ‘zero out crime’ within 12 months | The Verge
• ICE taps into nationwide AI camera network, data shows | 404 Media
• ICE, Secret Service had access to Flock's camera network | 404 Media

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

My guest today is Bridget McCormack, former chief justice for the Michigan Supreme Court and now president and CEO of the American Arbitration Association. For the past several years, Bridget and her team have been developing an AI-assisted arbitration platform called the AI Arbitrator.

So I sat down with her to talk about how the tool works, the pros and cons of automating parts of the arbitration process, and the bigger picture questions around institutional trust, justice, and the future of law. 

Links: 

• All rise for JudgeGPT | The Verge
• Why do lawyers keep using ChatGPT? | The Verge
• Judge berates AI entrepreneur for using a generated ‘lawyer’ | The Verge
• Judge slams lawyers for ‘bogus AI-generated research’ | The Verge
• LexisNexis CEO says the AI law era is already here | Decoder
• ChatGPT can be a disaster for lawyers — Robin AI wants to fix that | Decoder
• Considerations In building guardrails for AI use In arbitration | Law360
• The AI Arbitrator: What it is, what it isn’t, and where it’s going | Law360
  

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Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt. This episode was edited by Chris Jereza and Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

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Siemens is one of those absolutely giant, extremely important, fairly opaque companies we love to dig into on Decoder. At a very basic, reductive level, Siemens makes the hardware and software that let other companies run and automate their stuff.

We spent a lot of time talking about what happens to jobs when Siemens automates everything — and what happens to a company like Siemens when the free trade era we’re used to gets turned on its head.

Read the full interview transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

• Siemens Energy CEO attends Trump meeting at Davos | Reuters
• PepsiCo, Siemens, Nvidia announce digital twin collaboration | PepsiCo
• Siemens spins off Healthineers majority stake | Reuters
• Siemens USA to train 200,000 electricians by 2030 | Siemens

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re going to talk about reality, and whether we can label photos and videos to protect our shared understanding of the world around us. To do this, I sat down with Verge reporter Jess Weatherbed, who covers creative tools for us — a space that’s been totally upended by generative AI.

We’ve been talking about how the photos and videos taken by our phones are getting more and more processed for years on The Verge. Here in 2026, we’re in the middle of a full-on reality crisis, as fake and manipulated ultra-believable images and videos flood onto social platforms at scale. So Jess and I discussed the limitations of AI labeling standards like C2PA, and why social media execs like Instagram boss Adam Mosseri are now sounding the alarm. 

Read the full transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

• This system can sort real pictures from AI fakes — why aren’t we using it? | The Verge
• You can’t trust your eyes to tell you what’s real, says Instagram | The Verge
• Instagram’s boss is missing the point about AI on the platform | The Verge
• Sora is showing us how broken deepfake detection is | The Verge
• Reality still matters | The Verge
• No one’s ready for this | The Verge
• What is a photo, @WhiteHouse edition | The Verge
• Google Gemini is getting better at identifying AI fakes | The Verge
• Let’s compare Apple, Google & Samsung’s definitions of 'photo’ | The Verge
• The Pixel 8 and the what-is-a-photo apocalypse | The Verge

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, I’m talking with Allan Thygesen, who is the CEO of Docusign. You know Docusign, it’s the platform that lets you sign stuff online. It turns out 7,000 people work there, which is one of those facts floating around that’s always felt like perfect Decoder bait. What are all those people doing? And what kind of product roadmap does a company like Docusign even need?

Alan has only been CEO of Docusign for three years, so he has some interesting perspective on where the company was, the changes he wanted to make, and where he thinks this is all going. Hint: it involves AI. 

Read the full transcript on The Verge.

Links: 

• Docusign's AI will help you understand what you're signing | Fast Company
• Docusign on ‘transformational journey,’ CEO Says | Bloomberg
• How Docusign Is modernizing the age-old business contract | Barron’s
• Docusign unveils next-gen eSignature with AI | Docusign
• Docusign brings its contract AI to ChatGPT | Docusign
• Interview with Docusign CEO Allan Thygesen | Motley Fool (Podcast)

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Today, we’re talking about the bidding war over Warner Bros. Discovery, which is the biggest story in the entertainment industry right now, and for good reason. It has pretty much everything you could want in a buzzy Hollywood saga — big names, big money, and big drama.

To help me make sense of it all, I wanted to talk with Julia Alexander, a Verge alum and now media correspondent at Puck News who’s one of the best in the business at analyzing corporate strategy, Hollywood, and what’s next in entertainment. Julia really helped me break down why Netflix is the clear front runner to acquire Warner Bros., why David Ellison of Paramount Skydance is so desperate to win, and, perhaps most importantly, how the tech industry fits into this puzzle.

Links: 

• Netflix is buying Warner Bros. for $83 billion | The Verge
• Paramount launches hostile $108 billion bid to snatch Warner | The Verge
• Netflix revises Warner Bros. bid to an all-cash offer | The Verge
• Why Netflix needs Warner Bros. | Puck News
• The Warner Bros. bidding war Is over | Bloomberg
• The Son King of Hollywood | Vulture
• FCC Chair: ‘Legitimate competition concerns’ with Netflix’s Warner deal | Variety
• Netflix's Ted Sarandos to testify at antitrust hearing over Warner deal | Variety

Subscribe to The Verge to access the ad-free version of Decoder!

Credits:

Decoder is a production of The Verge and part of the Vox Media Podcast Network.

Decoder is produced by Kate Cox and Nick Statt and edited by Ursa Wright. Our editorial director is Kevin McShane. 

The Decoder music is by Breakmaster Cylinder.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices