Expected Value

TruMedia Networks

The Expected Value podcast takes you inside the sports analytics world, by talking with people who work for teams, media and other organizations. Conversations focus on what they do, how they do it, and how they got there. Baseball, football, soccer, basketball and more sports will be covered. Please subscribe and enjoy!

  • 35 minutes 59 seconds
    Tim Gibbons - TruMedia Baseball Professional Services Lead

    Tim Gibbons is TruMedia’s baseball professional services lead, dealing with players, agencies and facilities. He previously worked as a minor-league hitting coach in the Orioles system. In this episode, Tim talks about…

    - His career path to becoming a hitting coach

    - What a minor-league hitting coach does

    - Data available to minor-league teams

    - How a minor-league team’s approach is influenced by the parent club

    - Communicating data to players

    - Mixing data with coaching of mechanics

    - How facilities and agencies use data

    - New baseball data points available to coaches

    - Follow Tim on Twitter: @LineDrivePro

    11 April 2024, 7:08 pm
  • 41 minutes 25 seconds
    Allison Loucks - ESPN Director, Business Development & Innovation

    Allison Loucks is the Director of Business Development and Innovation at ESPN, where she oversees ESPN’s Analytics group. Her team has created ESPN metrics including their Total QBR, Basketball Power Index and pass rush win rate. In this conversation, Allison talks about…

    - What she does as a director of the analytics group and what a typical day looks like

    - How ESPN creates proprietary metrics

    - Challenges of using complex metrics in simple ways

    - How sports betting has affected her team’s work

    - Common misconceptions about ESPN metrics

    - What’s on the horizon for the analytics team

    - What she looks for when hiring

    - Her ESPN career and journalism background

    - Meeting one of her sports heroes

    Show links

    - ESPN Analytics home page

    27 March 2024, 8:22 pm
  • 39 minutes 41 seconds
    Matt Chang - NFL Big Data Bowl winner

    Matt Chang and his team won the 2024 NFL Big Data Bowl, an analytics competition with a $25,000 first prize. In this episode, Matt will discuss…

    - His team’s submission, entitled Uncovering Missed Tackle Opportunities

    - What the Big Data Bowl is and how he and his team became interested

    - The data and question provided by the NFL

    - Attacking that question through trial and error

    - Creating a metric and its components

    - Making the outputs easy to understand

    - Ideal next steps with their metric

    - Advice for anyone looking to enter contests like the Big Data Bowl

    Show Links

    - Kaggle notebook for Matt’s team’s winning submission

    - Video of Matt’s team’s presentation

    - Matt’s advice for future Big Data Bowl contestants

    - Big Data Bowl home page

    - Big Data Bowl Kaggle home page

    - Matt’s transition from hardware to machine learning

    - Follow Matt on Twitter and LinkedIn

    13 March 2024, 2:53 am
  • Ben Zauzmer - Oscarmetrics

    Ben Zauzmer is an assistant general manager with the New York Mets, and he’s better known publicly for his book Oscarmetrics and his Twitter account @BensOscarMath, where he uses data to project winners of the Academy Awards. With this year’s Oscars ceremony coming on March 10, Ben joins Expected Value to talk about…

    - How he got into the Oscars predictions business

    - Creating an Oscars model from scratch

    - The variables that go into his calculations

    - Projecting nominees vs projecting winners

    - Explaining probability

    - Factoring in betting markets

    - Reaction from the film community

    - Majoring in applied mathematics at Harvard

    - Course and skills recommended to aspiring analysts

    - His favorite movie and favorite Best Picture winner

    Show links

    - @BensOscarMath on Twitter

    - Buy Oscarmetrics on Bookshop or Amazon

    28 February 2024, 2:32 am
  • 43 minutes 58 seconds
    Bobby Bandelow - Coordinator of Advance Scouting, Texas Rangers

    Bobby Bandelow is the coordinator of advance scouting for the world champion Texas Rangers. During his decade-long career, he’s worked with the Astros, the then-Indians and the Rangers, in roles ranging from video intern to major-league analyst. In this conversation, Bobby talks about…

    - Winning the 2023 World Series

    - What an advance scout does for an MLB team

    - How he presents data to Bruce Bochy and the Rangers staff

    - Adapting to MLB rule changes

    - Dealing with small sample sizes

    - His career path with three MLB teams

    - Advice for aspiring sports analysts

    Show Links

    - Follow Bobby on Twitter

    - Bruce Bochy doesn’t miss a thing

    - How the Rangers improved their defense

    - The Patriotic Pig

    14 February 2024, 1:43 am
  • 42 minutes 53 seconds
    Wes Johnson - Head Baseball Coach, University of Georgia

    Wes Johnson was named Head Baseball Coach for the University of Georgia on June 5th. Prior to taking the job in Athens, Wes served as the Pitching Coach for LSU, where he won a national championship earlier this year. He also has MLB experience, having served as the Pitching Coach for the Minnesota Twins from 2019-2022. His previous stops at Mississippi State and Arkansas add on to his SEC experience, in addition to his past as a high school baseball coach, among other stops. In this conversation, Wes talks about…

    Balancing his responsibilities of being LSU’s pitching coach in the midst of a national championship run with his duties as Georgia’s head coach.

    His career path and how he got into coaching in the first place.

    An SEC school’s resources from a data perspective.

    Coaching in MLB vs coaching at the collegiate level, including the different levels of preparation.

    How stats factor in his approach to the transfer portal.

    Communicating information to players vs a staff member.

    Players to watch at Georgia and around the SEC next year.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with Wes.

    Show Links

    To check Wes’ biography, click here.

    To read Wes’ interview with On3 about his MLB experience, click here.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    12 July 2023, 12:35 pm
  • 57 minutes 54 seconds
    Brandon Ally - Co-Founder, S2 Cognition

    Brandon Ally is the Co-Founder of S2 Cognition, a performance evaluation company that is revolutionizing the way professional teams asses prospective players. He is also S2 Cognition’s Chief Business Development Officer and Director of Football. His educational background stands up again the brightest minds in sports. He has a Bachelor’s in Psychology from the University of Tennessee, a PhD in Neuropsychology from Southern Miss, and worked as a Postdoctoral Fellow at Harvard University & Boston University, working in the Geriatric Neuropsychology Laboratory and Alzheimer’s Disease Center, respectively. He also has a background in academia, having served as Assistant Professor of Neurology at Boston University and Vanderbilt University. In addition to his roles at S2 Cognition, he currently serves as Professor of Neurosurgery at the University of Louisville. In this conversation, Brandon talks about…

    His academic background and what a PhD in Neuropsychology encompasses.

    His athletic background at the University of Tennessee.

    S2 Cognition’s origin story & what S2 Cognition does.

    What they used to develop the primary S2 test and what the exam provides NFL teams.

    How things in an athlete’s past influence how well they perform on the S2 test.

    Misconceptions between the S2 test and the Wonderlic exam.

    How his professional knowledge influences his coaching.

    His favorite John Wick movie, and shaming Paul for not having seen it.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with Brandon.

    Show Links

    Follow Brandon on Twitter: @brandonally3

    Follow S2 Cognition on Twitter: @S2Cognition

    To check out S2 Cognition’s website, click here.

    To check out what the S2 Cognition test said about the 2023 NFL Draft QB class, click here.

    To read The Athletic’s piece on the S2 Cognition test, click here.

    To read The Athletic’s piece on how the S2 Cognition test pointed to Brock Purdy’s NFL success, click here.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    28 June 2023, 4:20 pm
  • 35 minutes 18 seconds
    Alison Lukan - On-Air Analyst & Writer, Seattle Kraken

    Alison Lukan is an On-Air Analyst & Writer for the Seattle Kraken. In her role, she provides analysis for the Seattle Kraken’s local broadcasts on Root Sports Northwest, with her team winning a Regional Sports Emmy for their coverage this season. She holds a degree in Leadership Studies from the University of Richmond and has previously worked as a consultant in Washington D.C. and has a background in journalism, where she is one of the faces of the hockey analytics revolution. She has also written for The Athletic. In this conversation, Alison talks about…

    Her academic and career path to get to where she is now.

    How she caught the hockey bug and why she dove into hockey analytics.

    What data is available at the NHL level, and her access to hockey data.

    Her preparation and in-game process as an On-Air Analyst.

    The challenges of communicating data on TV and the key to doing it clearly.

    How her corporate background informs what she does now.

    What an NHL team’s analytics staff looks like.

    Where to get started if someone is looking to get into hockey analytics.

    Her time as Spidey, the University of Richmond’s mascot.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with Alison.

    Show Links

    Follow Alison on Twitter: @AlisonL

    To read Darren Brown’s piece on Alison’s first season with the Kraken, click here.

    To read Alison’s piece in The Athletic’s piece on her time as Spidey, click here.

    To read Alison’s piece on NHL players’ relationship with their sticks, click here.

    To read Alison’s piece in The Athletic on the “Hockey Analytics Conference” (HAC), click here.

    To read Bill West’s piece on Alison and hockey analytics, click here.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    14 June 2023, 5:37 pm
  • 55 minutes
    John Taormina - Director of Football Strategy, TruMedia

    John Taormina is TruMedia’s Director of Football Strategy, overseeing TruMedia’s football related business. Prior to joining us at TruMedia, John spent time with the Atlanta Falcons. He started as a Football Analyst before becoming Manager of Football Analytics. His final role with the Falcons was Director of Football Data & Analytics. He holds a BA in Broadcast Journalism from Penn State, along with a Master of Science in Analytics from Villanova. In this conversation, John talks about…

    His academic path and what led him to pursue a career in sports analytics.

    His time with the Atlanta Falcons and how his responsibilities changed with each role.

    What a typical NFL analytics department looks like from the inside.

    How an NFL analytics department works with the coaching staff.

    A first-hand perspective of what it’s like to be inside the war room during the NFL Draft.

    Working with cap specialists and what the analytics department does during the off-season.

    How he aided the Falcons decision makers with a massive trade.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with John.

    Show Links

    Follow John on Twitter: @TheRealPapaJohn

    To check out Championship Analytics, click here.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    8 June 2023, 7:29 pm
  • 42 minutes 10 seconds
    Amelia Probst - Data Scientist & Writer, Pro Football Focus

    Amelia Probst is a Data Scientist & Writer for Pro Football Focus (PFF). Despite being just 22 years old, the Cornell graduate has already worked in football, baseball, and lacrosse, including internships with the New York Mets and the Premier Lacrosse League (PLL). In this conversation, Amelia talks about…

    How she became interested in sports analytics.

    How she applies what she learned at Cornell to working in sports analytics.

    Her time with Cornell’s Sports Analytics club.

    Interning with the Mets & the PLL.

    What’s being done in collegiate lacrosse from a data perspective.

    Joining PFF, what PFF does, and her role at the company.

    What she has learned about football analytics while at PFF.

    The difference between working in football, baseball, and lacrosse.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with Amelia.

    Show Links

    Follow Amelia on Twitter: @ameliaprobst.

    To check out Amelia’s writing at PFF, click here.

    To check out Amelia’s PFF piece on Offensive Linemen Volatility, click here.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    10 May 2023, 7:06 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    Paul Hembekides - Content Producer, ESPN

    Paul Hembekides, aka Hembo, is a Content Producer for ESPN and got his start in the Stats & Information department, working with Expected Value host Paul Carr in the ESPN research room. Currently, Hembo works on Get Up and #Greeny, Mike Greenberg’s daily ESPN Radio show. He also partnered with Greenberg to co-author “Got Your Number”, a New York Times Bestseller that explores sports history through the lens of who “owns” each number in sports. In this conversation, Hembo talks about…

    The origin of “Got Your Number” and he and Greenberg’s process for choosing the numbers.

    How he put together the stats and facts for each athlete.

    How he balances stats and words in the book.

    Biggest surprise when researching and writing the book.

    His path and how he got to his current ESPN role.

    What he had to learn to adapt his sports passion and knowledge to TV & Radio.

    A look inside a researchers mindset & how he approaches the “give me the best stat” question.

    Tips & advice for getting into sports research.

    Then, TruMedia’s Sergio De La Espriella joins the show to discuss Paul’s conversation with Hembo.

    Show Links

    To purchase “Got Your Number”, click here.

    Follow Hembo on Twitter: @PaulHembo.

    Follow @TruMediaSports on Twitter.

    Listen here or wherever you get your podcasts: Apple, Spotify, Google, Stitcher, TuneIn.

    3 May 2023, 7:10 pm
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