Risk of Ruin

Half Kelly Media

Audio documentaries about risk takers.

  • 1 hour 35 minutes
    Movers

    Curtis, Phil, and Reilly are professional sports bettors that provide the valuable service of getting down for originating groups. They are logistics providers in the gambling world. They talk about starting as casino APs, finding sports, and having several hundred thousand dollars taken from them by a  sportsbook.

    Find Reilly on X. https://twitter.com/ValleyBlitz_15

    Support the show credit card links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit?usp=sharing

    Email us: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow on X: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    4 March 2024, 12:00 pm
  • 1 hour 1 minute
    Credit Card Arbitrage

    Matt writes the blog "Miles Earn and Burn" which stands alone in the credit card space. He has no ads on the site, and he writes about advanced strategies that don't make it into the mainstream travel blog world. The post that got me interested in having Matt as a guest said basically: go to your local credit union and see if there's anything that you might be able to profit from. In the advantage play world that would be called scouting. In the manufactured spend world it's known as probing. https://milesearnandburn.com/index.php/2023/09/29/taking-a-stroll-to-the-local-financial-district/

    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    17 December 2023, 12:00 am
  • 58 minutes 29 seconds
    You Can't Beat the Lottery*

    Mr. Doppy became an advantage player hustling the video poker game Ultimate X. Since then he's gone after online sports books, credit card points, and also a state lottery.

    Mr. Doppy's Twitter account: https://twitter.com/MrDoppy

    Support the show links: https://docs.google.com/document/d/1YTMUqap_Z0D9832cOl5wYxUs16Byr6xx-iAZzrRL3VU/edit

    Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail dot com
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    25 October 2023, 1:00 am
  • 1 hour 46 minutes
    Rocket Man

    In 2022 Elon Musk signed an agreement to purchase Twitter. Then all hell broke loose. This episode is about that merger, the investors that traded it, and the most valuable Twitter follow to come out of the saga.

    Guests:
    Chris DeMuth - Rangeley Capital
    https://twitter.com/ChrisDeMuthJr
    Evan Tindell - Bireme Capital
    https://twitter.com/evantindell
    Chance, Editor in Chief of The Chancery Daily
    https://twitter.com/chancery_daily

    Media Clips Used:
    Tesla 3rd Quarter Earnings Call
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_SOWBDCQnM
    David Faber, CNBC
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ycx4b9-2nFU
    Yahoo News, Biden Administration Reviewing Twitter Deal
    https://www.yahoo.com/video/u-weighs-security-review-musks-010913575.html
    Carolyn Berger Appearance on CNBC
    https://www.cnbc.com/video/2022/07/13/twitter-is-in-a-very-strong-position-to-be-on-the-winning-side-says-ret-delaware-supreme-court-justice.html
    Elon Musk Sold Zip2
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s9mczdODqzo
    Peter Thiel Comments on Elon
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y11uX8X6iz4
    Tesla Shareholder Meeting
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=49e7LrxS3FQ&feature=emb_title
    SEC Sues Musk Over Funding Secured Tweets
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjqp7LTb2B4&t=56s

    20 October 2023, 6:00 am
  • 1 hour 24 minutes
    The Mayfair Revisited

    Erik Seidel and Steve Zolotow were among the gamblers to come out of the storied Mayfair Club in New York City. The Mayfair inspired some of the locations in Rounders, and is also known for the breadth of success that its players have had in poker. The episode covers the history of the club, its bridge and backgammon roots, and the careers of Erik and Steve.

    Special thanks to Larry Bernstein.

    Email the show: Risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Twitter: @halfkelly

    Follow Erik on Twitter: @Erik_Seidel

    20 October 2023, 1:00 am
  • 55 minutes 27 seconds
    Zero, by Way of a Hundred

    John Hempton runs Bronte Capital, which generates its excess returns primarily through shorting fraudulent companies. John walks through a hypothetical short, explaining how they find it, how they size positions, and the kinds of returns that can be expected. He also discusses his shorts of Valeant Pharmaceutical and Wirecard.

    John Hempton on Twitter: https://twitter.com/John_Hempton
    John's Blog: http://brontecapital.blogspot.com/
    Netflix documentary on Valeant: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt7909184/

    Email the show: [email protected]
    Follow the show on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    18 October 2023, 2:00 am
  • 1 hour 2 minutes
    A Family Business

    Jim and Dan Pasko talk about their father and son sportsbetting operation. The Paskos use math to find positive EV bets like correlated parlays and player props. Jim Pasko has been a professional gambler for almost his entire adult life, first starting as a backgammon player during the heyday of that game. Dan joined him in professional gambling when they found opportunities with the early internet sportsbooks.

    Follow Dan on Twitter: @dan_pasko
    Follow the show on Twitter: @halfkelly
    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail.

    18 October 2023, 12:00 am
  • 47 minutes 8 seconds
    The Game-like Aspect

    Kai talks about leaving the work world behind in favor of early retirement, and the part time pursuit of bank and credit card bonuses. He also discusses Lean FIRE (Financial Independence Retire Early) and how churning bonuses fits into his FIRE plan.

    Kai's podcast: The Daily Churn
    https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily-churn/id1577648675

    Email the show: [email protected]
    Twitter: @halfkelly

    16 October 2023, 6:00 pm
  • 46 minutes 51 seconds
    Greetings from Las Vegas - Part I

    Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.

    Follow Zack White on Twitter.

    Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.

    Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.

    Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

    10 October 2023, 3:00 am
  • 45 minutes 32 seconds
    Greetings from Las Vegas - Part II

    Mark DeRosa, Zack White, and Rufus Peabody. The story a group of friends from Appalachian State that went on to team up with an econ grad from Yale. They started playing casino games and eventually would go on to bet the max at sports books all over Las Vegas.

    Follow Zack White on Twitter.

    Follow Mark DeRosa on Twitter.

    Follow Rufus Peabody on Twitter.

    Rufus's betting analytics startup: Unabated. 

    10 October 2023, 2:00 am
  • 1 hour 13 minutes
    The Audacity of Help

    Richard Munchkin and Darryl Purpose are career advantage players. Over the past 40 years they've teamed up to win millions of dollars from casinos. In this episode they recount some of the war stories and also offer reflections on the nature of teamwork.

    Darryl Purpose's music website: https://darrylpurpose.com/
    Richard Munchkin / Gambing With an Edge: https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/category/podcast/
    Earlier episode of Risk of Ruin featuring Richard and Darryl: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/david-goliath-part-i/id1527018692?i=1000493338179
    James Grosjean's "Beyond Coupons": https://www.lasvegasadvisor.com/gambling-with-an-edge/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/beyondcouponsbjfo.pdf


    Email the show: risk of ruin pod at gmail
    Follow us on Twitter: https://twitter.com/halfkelly

    2 October 2023, 6:00 pm
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